Ted Lilly = This Year's Bronson Arroyo?

[kroth1342]

In thinking of ways to improve the Cubs' pitching in 07, I was reminded of the disparity between the AL and NL, and the success of pitchers making the AL --> NL transition: specifically Bronson Arroyo. In 2006 Arroyo posted the following line:

 

3.29 ERA 240.7 IP 88 ER 31 HR 64 BB 184 K

GABP 2005 park factor: 1002

 

In his two previous full seasons with Boston as a starter:

2004:

4.03 ERA 178.7 IP 80 ER 17 HR 47 BB 142 K

2005:

4.51 ERA 205.3 IP 103 ER 22 HR 54 BB 100 K

Fenway 2004 and 2005 park factor: 1033

 

 

To me, a candidate to experience a similar change in production going from the AL --> NL is Ted Lilly. I'm not sure if he is still under arbitration or will be a FA. Here are the numbers from Lilly's last two full seasons with TOR:

 

2004:

4.06 ERA 197.3 IP 89 ER 26 HR 89 BB 168 K

2006:

4.31 ERA 181.7 IP 87 ER 28 HR 81 BB 160 K

Toronto park factor 2004 and 2005: 1037, 1034

 

When looking at Lilly's numbers, remember he is pitching in the AL East, having to make several starts each year against BOS and NYY, two of the top 5 offensive clubs in MLB - in addition to playing in a hitter's park.

 

In my opinion, moving Lilly to the weaker lineups of the NL and to a fairly neutral park (Wrigley), could provide the same transformation that we saw with Arroyo.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Arroyo's stuff is significantly better than Lilly's, and the difference in age is a big deal. Arroyo came over after his age 28 season, Lilly(who is a FA btw) was 30 this year and is leaving his prime.

[goonys evil twin]

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Arroyo's stuff is significantly better than Lilly's, and the difference in age is a big deal. Arroyo came over after his age 28 season, Lilly(who is a FA btw) was 30 this year and is leaving his prime.

 

Isn't a pitcher's prime a little later than a hitter's?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Arroyo's stuff is significantly better than Lilly's, and the difference in age is a big deal. Arroyo came over after his age 28 season, Lilly(who is a FA btw) was 30 this year and is leaving his prime.

 

Isn't a pitcher's prime a little later than a hitter's?

 

I honestly don't remember, but if that is true then it lends more credence to Arroyo's big year being more a function of development than change in circumstances. And more to the point, getting a pitcher who in the past has been mediocre to bad in the past and hoping he'll improve is really not a smart route with the composition of this team. If you want to bank on a breakout season, then just stick Marshall or Marmol or Guzman or Mateo or Ryu there and save your money.

[kroth1342]

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Arroyo's stuff is significantly better than Lilly's, and the difference in age is a big deal. Arroyo came over after his age 28 season, Lilly(who is a FA btw) was 30 this year and is leaving his prime.

 

According to BP's STUFF stat:

 

Arroyo 2003, 2004, 2005: 16, 23, 4,

with a weighted mean forecast of 10 for 2006 (note I don't have the actualy value for this past season)

 

Lilly 2003, 2004, 2005: 15, 16, -5

with a weighted mean forecast of 7 for 2006

 

While there is an age difference, I don't know if that is a huge factor in pitcher performance this days. With the high cost of veteran pitching via the FA market or trade, Lilly appears to be a gamble worth taking to fill out the rotation if we can acquire a top-of-the-rotation starter.

[goonys evil twin]

And more to the point, getting a pitcher who in the past has been mediocre to bad in the past and hoping he'll improve is really not a smart route with the composition of this team.

 

Lilly was pretty good in 2002 and 2004, and decent in 2006. It's not like he's Rusch here. Nate Robertson has some similarities, results wise. I think Doug Davis is another comparison. These guys aren't great, but if you are going to be getting multiple pitchers, they could be the robin to the offseason equivalent of batman. Throw Moyer money at them, and you could benefit. I'd like to go in another direction myself, but if you have multiple holes, this type of pitcher might be a reasonable target.

[YearofDaCubs]

Personally, I think Lilly would be a pretty good fit here if we can sign another top pitcher like Matsuzaka:

 

Z

Matsuzaka

Hill

Lilly

5th starter(anybody that can get you to 12-15 wins would be nice)

 

That would be a solid rotation IMO.

[cubweiser03]

What would happen if Lilly had that confrontaion earlier in the year with Lou instead of John Gibbons? Somehow i dont think Lou would be the one with the bloody lip and he wouldnt have waited to get it on in the clubhouse tunnel. Matters would of been handled on the mound. :lol:

[kroth1342]

Personally, I think Lilly would be a pretty good fit here if we can sign another top pitcher like Matsuzaka:

 

Z

Matsuzaka

Hill

Lilly

5th starter(anybody that can get you to 12-15 wins would be nice)

 

That would be a solid rotation IMO.

 

co-sign

[Soriano12]

Personally, I think Lilly would be a pretty good fit here if we can sign another top pitcher like Matsuzaka:

 

Z

Matsuzaka

Hill

Lilly

5th starter(anybody that can get you to 12-15 wins would be nice)

 

That would be a solid rotation IMO.

 

co-sign

 

adding a 3rd signature. Finally a rotation that doesn't depend on Prior.

8)

[MustangMike]

Personally, I think Lilly would be a pretty good fit here if we can sign another top pitcher like Matsuzaka:

 

Z

Matsuzaka

Hill

Lilly

5th starter(anybody that can get you to 12-15 wins would be nice)

 

That would be a solid rotation IMO.

 

co-sign

 

adding a 3rd signature. Finally a rotation that doesn't depend on Prior.

8)

 

Doesn't that lineup say 3 out of 5 pitchers are a wildcard with 1 journyman (Lilly)? Matsuzaka might be great but he is an unknown. the 5th starter would be unknown but not the biggest concern as its at the end of the rotation. Hill looked great at the end and I really hope he's the real deal, but do we collectivly think he's a solid 2 or 3?

[b_wiggy_66]

We would be better off getting Wolf. He will come cheaper and is essentially tha same pitcher. Both of them also have a history of injuries. The Cubs would be better off getting one of the Cardinals (Weaver, Suppan) who are both very durable and quality pitchers, and one of the big 3 (Zito, Schmidt, MAtsuzaka)

[Shilzzz]

Personally, I think Lilly would be a pretty good fit here if we can sign another top pitcher like Matsuzaka:

 

Z

Matsuzaka

Hill

Lilly

5th starter(anybody that can get you to 12-15 wins would be nice)

 

That would be a solid rotation IMO.

 

co-sign

 

adding a 3rd signature. Finally a rotation that doesn't depend on Prior.

8)

 

Doesn't that lineup say 3 out of 5 pitchers are a wildcard with 1 journyman (Lilly)? Matsuzaka might be great but he is an unknown. the 5th starter would be unknown but not the biggest concern as its at the end of the rotation. Hill looked great at the end and I really hope he's the real deal, but do we collectivly think he's a solid 2 or 3?

 

werd. hill is fine at number four or five, not two or three. just because he blew through AAA ball and had a good month/month and a half doesn't automatically give him top three billing. give me zambrano, schmidt, matsuzaka, lilly, hill with the possibility of prior jumping in there for lilly at some point if he ever gets healthy and i'm happy.

[mhuber92211]

I think Suppan is likely a better use of $$

[Rob]

I think Suppan is likely a better use of $$

 

The odds of Suppan being a value-buy this offseason is practically zero since he's channeling the ghost of Bob Gibson's career.

 

He might end up banking 8-10 million due to his "playoff experience" and "clutchness"... and that's for a league average, innings-eater sort of pitcher.

 

Not a good use of money.

[kroth1342]

I think Suppan is likely a better use of $$

 

Sorry, but I'm just not that enthused about a pitcher one year OLDER than Lilly, who posted similar ERAs in an INFERIOR league while striking out less batters.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Why go after Lilly when the Cubs have two lefties already that COULD HAVE similar numbers for considerably less already on the roster? Lilly would make a decent Deadline deal pitcher, but I wouldn't sign him, unless it was a "last act."

[mul21]

I don't see a problem with counting on Hill, Marshall, and the decent veteran FA to be the 3,4,5. You then have to rely on Z and that key FA to be the 1-2 that you really need. If the offense is improved the way it should be in the off season, that combo should get the Cubs a lot of wins and stay fairly healthy.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't see a problem with counting on Hill, Marshall, and the decent veteran FA to be the 3,4,5. You then have to rely on Z and that key FA to be the 1-2 that you really need. If the offense is improved the way it should be in the off season, that combo should get the Cubs a lot of wins and stay fairly healthy.

 

The offense would have to be greatly improved. Marshall sucked this year. He won't win many games without massive improvements himself. Plus, he's as unreliable, healthwise, as any pitcher in the Cubs system. Hill should be good, but he's no lock. Then you talk of a FA as the 5th. As it is, Marshall should be no higher than 6th going into the spring. You should definitely have 5 starters you are going to rely on before him.

 

And back to the original point, that staff would need an awesome offense to succeed. Fantastic rotation can win on little offense, but that's not going to be a fantastic rotation. He could be decent, if things work out. But "decent veteran 5th starters" don't always workout, while Marshall is going to struggle and Hill could still suffer some ups and downs.

[TheDude]

I think Suppan is likely a better use of $$

 

The odds of Suppan being a value-buy this offseason is practically zero since he's channeling the ghost of Bob Gibson's career.

 

He might end up banking 8-10 million due to his "playoff experience" and "clutchness"... and that's for a league average, innings-eater sort of pitcher.

 

Not a good use of money.

 

The market is what it is for a #3 starter. An average pitcher in the current market that stays relatively healthy makes 7-8 million a year, usually on a 3-year contract. Suppan might get a bit more due to the 'playoff experience'.

 

I'm not sure if it is a poor use of money since you're not going to find much cheaper production from a veteran anyway.

 

Teams are probably better off running two high-priced top-end starters, one average veteran, and two cheap kids from the farm. Suppan and Lilly fit the role of that #3 and you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy cheaper than 7 million at that role.

[Magnetic Curses]

I don't see a problem with counting on Hill, Marshall, and the decent veteran FA to be the 3,4,5. You then have to rely on Z and that key FA to be the 1-2 that you really need. If the offense is improved the way it should be in the off season, that combo should get the Cubs a lot of wins and stay fairly healthy.

 

The offense would have to be greatly improved. Marshall sucked this year. He won't win many games without massive improvements himself. Plus, he's as unreliable, healthwise, as any pitcher in the Cubs system. Hill should be good, but he's no lock. Then you talk of a FA as the 5th. As it is, Marshall should be no higher than 6th going into the spring. You should definitely have 5 starters you are going to rely on before him.

 

i, too, am doubtful of marshall's ability as a starter in the major leagues. he's shown very little in terms of pitches, he's been injured, and he's sucked when he hasn't been injured. the only real aspect of his game to build on is his propensity to induce ground balls, which still isn't all that significant.

 

i think the best way to use marshall is in a trade. maybe another GM could be tricked into thinking that marshall is a young mark mulder or something. young starting pitchers are generally overvalued in trades by both parties involved, i'd say capitalize on it now.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Arroyo's stuff is significantly better than Lilly's, and the difference in age is a big deal. Arroyo came over after his age 28 season, Lilly(who is a FA btw) was 30 this year and is leaving his prime.

 

Isn't a pitcher's prime a little later than a hitter's?

 

Yep.

 

And Lily has damn good stuff too. Good fastball, great curve (it's similar to Zito's), good slider that used to be his out pitch.

 

Left handed, in the prime of a pitchers career (which is usually later than a hitters), and cheaper than the highly overrated Zito.

 

Still, nah. We have a few young guys I'd like to see get time again like Guzman and Marshall.

[kroth1342]

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Arroyo's stuff is significantly better than Lilly's, and the difference in age is a big deal. Arroyo came over after his age 28 season, Lilly(who is a FA btw) was 30 this year and is leaving his prime.

 

Isn't a pitcher's prime a little later than a hitter's?

 

Yep.

 

And Lily has damn good stuff too. Good fastball, great curve (it's similar to Zito's), good slider that used to be his out pitch.

 

Left handed, in the prime of a pitchers career (which is usually later than a hitters), and cheaper than the highly overrated Zito.

 

Still, nah. We have a few young guys I'd like to see get time again like Guzman and Marshall.

 

Personally, I'd rather see Guzman have a successful season at Triple-A, or even a successful half-season before he comes up to the majors. He didn't show me anything last year that makes me think he can be a productive major league starter now.

[RynoRules]

I don't see a problem with counting on Hill, Marshall, and the decent veteran FA to be the 3,4,5. You then have to rely on Z and that key FA to be the 1-2 that you really need. If the offense is improved the way it should be in the off season, that combo should get the Cubs a lot of wins and stay fairly healthy.

 

The offense would have to be greatly improved. Marshall sucked this year. He won't win many games without massive improvements himself. Plus, he's as unreliable, healthwise, as any pitcher in the Cubs system. Hill should be good, but he's no lock. Then you talk of a FA as the 5th. As it is, Marshall should be no higher than 6th going into the spring. You should definitely have 5 starters you are going to rely on before him.

 

i, too, am doubtful of marshall's ability as a starter in the major leagues. he's shown very little in terms of pitches, he's been injured, and he's sucked when he hasn't been injured. the only real aspect of his game to build on is his propensity to induce ground balls, which still isn't all that significant.

 

i think the best way to use marshall is in a trade. maybe another GM could be tricked into thinking that marshall is a young mark mulder or something. young starting pitchers are generally overvalued in trades by both parties involved, i'd say capitalize on it now.

 

goony and Sully QFT.

[KingCubsFan]

Why go after Lilly when the Cubs have two lefties already that COULD HAVE similar numbers for considerably less already on the roster? Lilly would make a decent Deadline deal pitcher, but I wouldn't sign him, unless it was a "last act."

Please name these two pitchers