An Open Letter to Jim Hendry

[Mephistopheles]

Dear Jim,

 

The Chicago Cubs need a lot of offense, it's true - but signing Alfonso Soriano will simply lead to disaster for this organization. There's no doubt that he's coming off of an excellent season, but to quote Albert Einstein "reality is merely an illusion." In order to move the Cubs in a good direction, one has to realize that the past is not always the greatest indicator of the future. Often one has dig deep for answers to simple questions, such as, "can Alfonso Soriano keep up the walk rate hike that he underwent at age 30?" As Lou Piniella has mentioned the Cubs are in need of proven guys who can get on base - and more importantly not make outs.

 

Last season Alfonso Soriano walked 67 times in 728 plate appearances, 9.2%. To put the increase into perspective, he walked 66 times in 1340 plate appearances the two previous seasons, 4.9%. His walk rate was 83% higher in 2006 than it was in 2004 or 2005. It would be understandable if a person who exhibited excellent walk rates in the minor leagues and was under 25 to undergo such a transformation, but a major league veteran at age 30?

 

Since 1900 among players with 300 ABs in three consecutive season such a condition has happened 37 times. Of these 37 players, 29 of them got 300 ABs the next season. On average they lost 48.9% of the gain they had. Only two of them managed to increase again the next season (Johnny Evers and Lave Cross). Due to sample size issues with the number of walks, I would throw out all dead ball era players. Doing so is going to leave us with a 20 player sample size, but oh well. These players lost an average of 53.5% of their gain. Two of them actually lost all of their gain (Carlos Lee and Shawon Dunston). Now, this is a graph of their relative walk rates compared to their 0 season, which would be the established season before the huge increase, in Soriano's case 2005.

http://i47.photobucket.com/albums/f189/kctigers23/soriano1.gif

As you can easily see, there's a huge dropoff after one year, but it's still above the established level for all of the players involved. However, there is another issue at work here. This year Soriano had sixteen intentional walks, nine more than he had the two years prior. Is this something to last? Possibly with his increased power - if his power increase is legitimate.

 

Once you factor out the intentional walks, you still find an increase of 62.1% on his walk rate. Doing the same above, we'd be able to find an additional 121 guys that fit our criteria, bringing the sample size to 141 live ball era players who increased their unintentional walk rate by over 62 percent. This sample size lost an average of 33.6% of their increase the second year, but they still had an increase of 53.5% over the established rate. Due to the much larger sample size, it may be possible to sort out the players by age brackets.

 

The brackets selected are pretty arbitrary. I used young as 20-24, prime as 25-29, past prime as 30-34 and old as 35 and up. The results are quite interesting, although there's an issue of which category Soriano is going to fall into:

Age Group	Sample Size	Year 1	Year 2	Change
20-24 26 +79.0%	+69.0%	-13.0%
25-29 74 +79.1%	+53.2%	-31.2%
30-34 35 +91.2%	+40.3%	-57.5%
35-40 6  +75.4%	+67.1%	-13.7%
29-31 33 +89.4%	+51.2%	-35.9%
Total	141 +81.9%	+53.5%	-33.6%

 

Remember, the change in the Year 2, is still relative to the baseline in the two years preceding the "breakout" year. Obviously, you can throw out the oldest age group due to sample size, but that does not matter. It's pretty obvious that breakout gains of the magnitude of Alfonso Soriano's clearly drop off quicker as the player gets older. Soriano spent this season as an age 30, so he's right on the cusp of the two. That's the reason at the bottom I added the 29-31 class. As you can see that age group is a lot closer to the 25-29 class. However, there is one small problem - Don Kolloway in 1948. He's inflating the system due to just 9 walks in his "base" season. So any increase is going not be a good representation. If you remove that season, you get a drastic change in results for the class. Most importantly they fall from +90.4% to +44.9% a loss of 47.2% of the increase.

 

All in all there is pretty good reason to believe that Soriano loses half of his increase in UBB walk rate. Whether or not he duplicates the high intentional walk rate depends on two things - his team, and finally the power output he has. Jim, for the Cubs these two things are going to pull into opposite ways. If acquired and he bats leadoff in a revamped lineup, odds are with Derrek Lee a couple batters behind him they're going to face him more, and not walk him to get to Matt Murton or whoever is in the second hole (except Cesar Isturis). The other issue is his power.

 

Not adjusting for park, Soriano had an increase of 20 percent on his power output, HR/PA. With a minimum of 350 AB and 15 homers, we have 346 such instances in the live ball era. On average, all of those hitters lost 48.8% of the power increase in the second year. I am not about to enter 386 ages, but odds are that there won't be some magic thing that makes 30 year olds more likely to sustain the power increase over the average aged hitter. Still, the sample would suggest a plus 10 percent power increase for Soriano, giving him roughly 40 homers. But Jim, beware of the sample size issue. Soriano batted 728 times last season, about 50 more than he did the previous year, so keep that in mind.

 

So all in all we'd expect Soriano to regress around 50 percent over his improvement. If you were to take that to EqA you'd expect him to have an EqA somewhere near .290 next season which is pretty average for him. Soriano had a huge season, but a .290 EqA in left field doesn't play well. However, it does fit nicely in centerfield, but the return on that is probably only worth maybe $10,000,000 not the higher figures he's more than likely going to get (and has rejected). Sure, his bat profiles well at 2B, but his .290 EqA is going to lead to at most 25-30 runs over an average 2B, 20 of which will get negated by his rock glove.

 

Sure, you might not be able to get a better centerfielder than him, but who said he is going to agree to play there? He's got options and will probably try to move back to second. In left field he's a decent choice, but is he that much better than Carlos Lee? Probably not. At second you can surely do better for cheaper. It's just not worth the price on him, no matter the impact his percieved value is. We already have issues with players like him, we need on base percentage. Guys who can walk. Soriano is clearly not that sort of player.

 

Jim, stay far far far away. Next up on the do not wish for: Barry Zito.

[NewUserName]

I really liked your stuff here tiger. The only part that I was wary of was your assertion that we should get CLee instead. I dont think he will have a higher OPS than Murton in 2 years. If you take away Sorianos career year last year he just doesnt have numbers that would warrant a really large contract. Since the Career year happened at the age of 30, we should really be careful

[Pinktermite]

It seems to me that, at some point, the Cubs are going to have to risk over-paying for a bonafide hitter. I agree Soriano is probably not worth the money...but CLee I would think, for the money, would be a better buy given that he does walk more, and strike out less, than Soriano does.

 

I like CLee...and he seems to have a penchant for hitting at Wrigley, much like Vinny Castilla seemed to have grossly inflated stats in Coors.

 

Ten million is a helluva lot cheaper and more of a bargain than the 15 million dollars chasing after a guy that might whine to play second base. Given Uncle Lou's potential abrasiveness for that kinda thing, I would venture a guess that Lou and Alphonso might not get along too well.

[NewUserName]

It seems to me that, at some point, the Cubs are going to have to risk over-paying for a bonafide hitter. I agree Soriano is probably not worth the money...but CLee I would think, for the money, would be a better buy given that he does walk more, and strike out less, than Soriano does.

 

I like CLee...and he seems to have a penchant for hitting at Wrigley, much like Vinny Castilla seemed to have grossly inflated stats in Coors.

 

Ten million is a helluva lot cheaper and more of a bargain than the 15 million dollars chasing after a guy that might whine to play second base. Given Uncle Lou's potential abrasiveness for that kinda thing, I would venture a guess that Lou and Alphonso might not get along too well.

 

 

Is he going to be better than Murton though? Since neither can play another position I would rather go with Murton.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I really liked your stuff here tiger. The only part that I was wary of was your assertion that we should get CLee instead. I dont think he will have a higher OPS than Murton in 2 years. If you take away Sorianos career year last year he just doesnt have numbers that would warrant a really large contract. Since the Career year happened at the age of 30, we should really be careful

 

I didn't really see the insinuation that we should go after Lee instead.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Hendry's eyes just glazed over after reading that.

 

 

He's not a stats guy and doesn't buy into any of the basic premises you used in your arguments.

 

But I enjoyed it. :)

[RichHillIsABeast]

I really liked your stuff here tiger. The only part that I was wary of was your assertion that we should get CLee instead. I dont think he will have a higher OPS than Murton in 2 years. If you take away Sorianos career year last year he just doesnt have numbers that would warrant a really large contract. Since the Career year happened at the age of 30, we should really be careful

 

I didn't really see the insinuation that we should go after Lee instead.

 

"In left field he's [soriano] a decent choice, but is he that much better than Carlos Lee?"

 

Since Carlos Lee wasn't rejected as a choice earlier in the letter, the implication is that Lee is preferrable to Soriano in LF.

[Mephistopheles]

Believe it or not, but over the last three seasons Carlos Lee has has had 2 .300 EqA seasons and has averaged an EqA higher than Soriano. Soriano has had an EqA under .290 in 2 of the 3 seasons. I am not saying Carlos Lee would be great, but they're similar and one would think Lee would come at cheaper price.

 

It seems to me that, at some point, the Cubs are going to have to risk over-paying for a bonafide hitter. I agree Soriano is probably not worth the money...but CLee I would think, for the money, would be a better buy given that he does walk more, and strike out less, than Soriano does.

 

I agree that you have to overpay to get elite hitters, but there's no indication that Soriano is an elite hitter. If anything, the Cubs should overpay on guys whose skillset matches what they don't have - on-base percentage. Soriano certainly doesn't fall into that category.

[USSoccer]

The problem is that we have a very good player in LF who probably can't play anywhere else. Lee can't play anywhere but left. Murton will come close to matching Lee's production, and at some point during Lee's next contract (and while Murton is cheap) begin to surpass it.

 

Soriano is going to be overpaid, but if he can play CF, that's an area I'd take his SLG% from.

[PrimeTime]

It seems to me that, at some point, the Cubs are going to have to risk over-paying for a bonafide hitter. I agree Soriano is probably not worth the money...but CLee I would think, for the money, would be a better buy given that he does walk more, and strike out less, than Soriano does.

 

I like CLee...and he seems to have a penchant for hitting at Wrigley, much like Vinny Castilla seemed to have grossly inflated stats in Coors.

 

Ten million is a helluva lot cheaper and more of a bargain than the 15 million dollars chasing after a guy that might whine to play second base. Given Uncle Lou's potential abrasiveness for that kinda thing, I would venture a guess that Lou and Alphonso might not get along too well.

 

 

Is he going to be better than Murton though? Since neither can play another position I would rather go with Murton.

 

 

 

 

Again with the Matt Murton man love...you guys rather have a guy with only 13 HR's and 62 RBI's than C Lee or Soriano??..Your crazy.... Both Lee and Soriano hit over 30 HR's..the problem is, were being outhomered in our own park..WE NEED POWER...Lee had an average of .300 Soriano .277 Is Carlos Lee going to be better than Murton?? Are you insane?? HELL YES he will...Lee or Soriano at wrigley is a deadlock for 30+ HR and 100+ RBI's...I like Murton but you gotta get over this love affair of him..you guys are just like the Dusty-Neifi affair...OK So hes cheap...who cares about money..the trib has tons of it...Im not gonna wait another 100 years for a world series..Go out and buy it... Get a power hitter,Platoon Jones and Murton in right, get 2 starting pitchers,maybe a guy like Durham to play second because Ronny sucks..and there we go

[RichHillIsABeast]

Where did Murton hit in the lineup? Lee? RBIs are a meaningless way to compare the two players.

 

Murton's second half: .319 BA, 9 HR, 35 RBI (207 AB)

 

Lee's second half: .311 BA, 11 HR, 43 RBI (283 AB)

 

 

I tried to use stats you'd accept. Notice how Murton put up similar number hitting in non-RBI spots in the lineup and with fewer at bats.

 

 

Murton is on the rise. Lee played in a hitter's park (Texas). Who are you going to take when one is making the league minimum and the other is making FA dollars?

[b_wiggy_66]

Where did Murton hit in the lineup? Lee? RBIs are a meaningless way to compare the two players.

 

Murton's second half: .319 BA, 9 HR, 35 RBI (207 AB)

 

Lee's second half: .311 BA, 11 HR, 43 RBI (283 AB)

 

 

I tried to use stats you'd accept. Notice how Murton put up similar number hitting in non-RBI spots in the lineup and with fewer at bats.

 

 

Murton is on the rise. Lee played in a hitter's park (Texas). Who are you going to take when one is making the league minimum and the other is making FA dollars?

 

Those stats are very telling, Murton is a keeper. Anyone who is a lock to hit at least .285 and can consistenly go opposite field is a keeper. THe power will come, once you can hit to all fields the power part is the next step. We can't get all free agents all the time. You have to have some home grown talent.

[Mephistopheles]

Those stats are very telling, Murton is a keeper. Anyone who is a lock to hit at least .285 and can consistenly go opposite field is a keeper. THe power will come, once you can hit to all fields the power part is the next step. We can't get all free agents all the time. You have to have some home grown talent.

Except for you have just described Juan Pierre.

[CoolHandLuke]

Those stats are very telling, Murton is a keeper. Anyone who is a lock to hit at least .285 and can consistenly go opposite field is a keeper. THe power will come, once you can hit to all fields the power part is the next step. We can't get all free agents all the time. You have to have some home grown talent.

Except for you have just described Juan Pierre.

 

not really. (notice the bolded statement)

[NewUserName]

It seems to me that, at some point, the Cubs are going to have to risk over-paying for a bonafide hitter. I agree Soriano is probably not worth the money...but CLee I would think, for the money, would be a better buy given that he does walk more, and strike out less, than Soriano does.

 

I like CLee...and he seems to have a penchant for hitting at Wrigley, much like Vinny Castilla seemed to have grossly inflated stats in Coors.

 

Ten million is a helluva lot cheaper and more of a bargain than the 15 million dollars chasing after a guy that might whine to play second base. Given Uncle Lou's potential abrasiveness for that kinda thing, I would venture a guess that Lou and Alphonso might not get along too well.

 

 

Is he going to be better than Murton though? Since neither can play another position I would rather go with Murton.

 

 

 

 

Again with the Matt Murton man love...you guys rather have a guy with only 13 HR's and 62 RBI's than C Lee or Soriano??..Your crazy.... Both Lee and Soriano hit over 30 HR's..the problem is, were being outhomered in our own park..WE NEED POWER...Lee had an average of .300 Soriano .277 Is Carlos Lee going to be better than Murton?? Are you insane?? HELL YES he will...Lee or Soriano at wrigley is a deadlock for 30+ HR and 100+ RBI's...I like Murton but you gotta get over this love affair of him..you guys are just like the Dusty-Neifi affair...OK So hes cheap...who cares about money..the trib has tons of it...Im not gonna wait another 100 years for a world series..Go out and buy it... Get a power hitter,Platoon Jones and Murton in right, get 2 starting pitchers,maybe a guy like Durham to play second because Ronny sucks..and there we go

 

 

Murton is 25 and coming into his prime. CLee and Soriano are 30 and leaving their prime. Both players had career years at the age of 30 in free agent years. I dont know how often these things work out but there should certainly be warnings against them. I wouldnt mind Soriano if we got him to play center or 2b. It is not man love for Murton it is just common sense that I want him over CLee. I am guessing that there isnt another organization in Baseball that would sign CLee so they could platoon Murton with Jones, even the Yankees wouldnt do that.

[Mephistopheles]

not really. (notice the bolded statement)

 

You said that being able to hit to the opposite field causes power down the road. Juan Pierre's done all of that but the power never came. He' a 25 year old with 150 isolated power. That's not terrible, but it's certainly not good. It's likely he's going to increase his power, but it's highly unlikely to see a significant power increase. His value to the team is his ability not to get out, not really his power ability. Murton's first 650 or so PA's have resulted in a .303/.370/.462 line and a .286 EqA. That's good overall of course - but for a leftfielder it's only about 10 runs over average for 162 games. If he's as good as the statistics say on defense, he's a solid left fielder - if not he's a an average one.

 

I think Murton's solid as is, but I think to predict a sustainable power increase is simply wrong. Matt Murton in LF wouldn't be a problem if the Cubs had good production out of RF, CF, 2B or SS. Which the Cubs have below average production at all over the place. Those four positions are bigger needs, but finding an offensive minded LF is relatively easy compared to a centerfielder, shortstop or secondbaseman.

[rawaction]

Very good post, KC. I don't at all expect that Soriano has turned the corner and will now continue at the near elite BB/PA level he was at last season. But he still produces at a high level. I will give you that it's not at an elite level consistently, but he at least gives you that chance. He was just a notch below elite this past season in most offensive categories, even in a career year. But he does create a lot of runs.

 

I really do hate to overpay for a non-lock for elite production, but the Cubs are in the position where they almost have to. At CF or 2B, he's at least comparably elite, and if he's a Cub....he'll play one of those positions.

 

Put into perspective, the Cubs would have top 3 league offensive production from 3B, 1B, C and CF/2B. Add in at league league average at RF, LF, and hopefully the non-Soriano position of CF/2B and you have a pretty decent offense.

 

Soriano is high on my list because he is the most available and easiest to obtain, prospects wise. But of the rumored names to be available, I'd put him behind ARod, Tejada, Drew, A Jones, M Ramirez, Burrell and Wells.

[Mephistopheles]

Yeah but our defense is going to take a huge hit. (Luckily I guess) Jim Hendry wants guys who can catch the ball in the infield, so Soriano would probably only be signed for an outfield slot.

[rawaction]

Yeah but our defense is going to take a huge hit. (Luckily I guess) Jim Hendry wants guys who can catch the ball in the infield, so Soriano would probably only be signed for an outfield slot.

 

Yeah, I'd want Soriano in CF first, with Durham at 2B. The more I read about Soriano's defense at 2B, the less valuable he gets.

[b_wiggy_66]

not really. (notice the bolded statement)

 

You said that being able to hit to the opposite field causes power down the road. Juan Pierre's done all of that but the power never came. He' a 25 year old with 150 isolated power. That's not terrible, but it's certainly not good. It's likely he's going to increase his power, but it's highly unlikely to see a significant power increase. His value to the team is his ability not to get out, not really his power ability. Murton's first 650 or so PA's have resulted in a .303/.370/.462 line and a .286 EqA. That's good overall of course - but for a leftfielder it's only about 10 runs over average for 162 games. If he's as good as the statistics say on defense, he's a solid left fielder - if not he's a an average one.

 

I think Murton's solid as is, but I think to predict a sustainable power increase is simply wrong. Matt Murton in LF wouldn't be a problem if the Cubs had good production out of RF, CF, 2B or SS. Which the Cubs have below average production at all over the place. Those four positions are bigger needs, but finding an offensive minded LF is relatively easy compared to a centerfielder, shortstop or secondbaseman.

 

Power develops over time. Look at all the good sluggers. They all started out with between 15-20 homers in their first couple full time years in the bigs. Power will come as Murtons body continues to grow and he continues to lift weights and gain strength.

[Mephistopheles]

Except that scouts for the most part have been skeptical about how much power he is going to develop ever since his days at Georgia Tech. It's not as if he's been labeled as a guy who can develop plus power down the road such as Ryan Harvey, Brian Dopirak or even Tyler Colvin for that matter. Even Felix Pie is projected by most to have more power.

[PrimeTime]

OK guys take your Murton 13 HR's and 60 something RBI's.Ill take 30+HR's and 100+RBI's..You have Jaque Jones doubling those numbers and you still all rip on him and desperatley want to trade him.... but,OMG, no one can ever bad mouth Murton.. like hes the second coming of Christ..Sure I like Murton, he has the patience and can take a walk, he got hot in the second half, but then when he was cold, and grounded into about 78 double plays, none of you guys ever bad mouthed him..Murton can probably have 34 errors a season and half you you guys will still be like " Its ok...He will come around...hes cheap...hes still learning...the power will come." or some other garbage... So tell me what sounds better for the heart of the order DLee,ARAM,Soriano or Lee or DLee,ARam,and Murton...Or if Murton is batting elsewhere, Barret or Jones... Uhhh I would think the first one and having Barret batting afterwards then jones after him would be perfect...Murton is a perfect number two hitter...thats where he belongs...If we could get Soriano to play second it would all work out and Murton could keep his crappy numbers and still play LF...OK so answer me this..your the pitcher...would you rather pitch to Soriano/CLee or Murton....Its a no brainer.Youd pitch to Murton... ..Its like pitching to DLee,pitchers are scared of him....You need another power hitter who can strike fear into a pitcher....A 3 headed monster is the key, just look at the other side of town... Dye,Thome and Konerko, that is just sick, you pick your poison...thats what we need..and look how many runs they scored...Matt Murton is the same thing as Iguchi...almost identical stats...Murton belongs batting in the 2 hole...I just wish Murton could play a different freaking position...Anyway,we need another powerbat...We cannot get outhomered in our own ballpark like we have been...I want a world series...I dont gice a danm about what money is spent...Its not yours..its the Tribunes...Go out at spend 200 million..I just want studs who can get me bring a world series to the north side..

[PrimeTime]

and Im sorry I typed like garbage..its past 4 AM and i just got home from the bar... thank you and goodnight

[muntjack]

I'm pretty sure most Murton fan's on here (I'm a big one) would give him up if it meant getting a true impact player in left ala Manny or Cabrera.

 

The fact is Murton just played his first full season and hit near .300 with an OPS over .800. He is young, and likely to improve on those numbers next year. He is also very cheap, and we have holes elsewhere.

 

If you have a rotation of Santana, Zambrano, Bedard, Estes, Fassero would upgrading Bedard be a priority?

 

I think any overprotection of Murton that you're noticing is likely due to the fact that the cubs haven't had a young position player put up good numbers since Corey's first half in '03.

[CubFanPhilly]

I dont gice a danm about what money is spent...Its not yours..its the Tribunes...Go out at spend 200 million..I just want studs who can get me bring a world series to the north side..

 

If the Tribune is spending $200 mil. this season, Murton's got to go. I won't miss his cheap production. Like you said, it's not my money.

 

If the Tribune is spending $115 mil. this season, it's Izturis, Jones, and/or Dempster that have to go.