Intriguing Thought: Jones Might Want Out?

[goonys evil twin]

in order to significantly upgrade the pitching, and i mean to championship level, not just (and you'll love this one, goony) "competing within the division" level, we need to add TWO top of the rotation pitchers, TWO.

 

there are 4 FA pitchers that i'd be okay with, i've posted the list.

 

Zito

Schmidt

Matsuzaka

Mussina

 

get two of them and the cubs have a chance to win the world series NEXT year, with or without a top 5 offense.

 

I completely disagree. There's no need to go after 2 stud pitchers, especially ones that include an old inconsistent Mussina. Teams don't need 3 superstart starting pitchers. The Cubs have 1, it would be nice to have 2. But pitchers are far too unreliable to base your whole team around. Look at Houston, their team is all about pitching, one year they are WS candidates, the other year the team is not very good. Overall, they were lucky to ever see that WS. Why are the Mets so good? Because they have a great lineup and lots of good pitching, not a handful of superstar pitchers.

 

 

 

What's with all the old declining players on your radar? Mussina, Edmonds? Please, this isn't a team in need of veteran leadership. They need some freaking production.

[Abe Frohman]

I am with the "Cubs need pitching" camp. Pitching has been the big problem for the Cubs, and clearly is the biggest challenge for them this off season. I would rank the Cubs needs in this order:

 

1) sign Schmidt

2) keep Ramirez

3) acquire a offensive force in CF (Andruw Jones)

4) quality manager

 

I still like the idea of getting Girardi and paying him next to nothing so the Marlins pay for our manager, considering we gave them 2 solid pitching prospects for using Pierre in 2006.

 

The Cubs need at least one big starting pitcher acquisition. Prior can not be counted on, and everything else is questionable besides the bullpen and Zambrano. The offense should be secondary considering Derrek Lee will be returning, and we already have a leadoff replacement in Ryan Theriot (I am pretty confident he will be effective).

[soccer10k]

I am with the "Cubs need pitching" camp. Pitching has been the big problem for the Cubs, and clearly is the biggest challenge for them this off season. I would rank the Cubs needs in this order:

 

1) sign Schmidt

2) keep Ramirez

3) acquire a offensive force in CF (Andruw Jones)

4) quality manager

 

I still like the idea of getting Girardi and paying him next to nothing so the Marlins pay for our manager, considering we gave them 2 solid pitching prospects for using Pierre in 2006.

 

The Cubs need at least one big starting pitcher acquisition. Prior can not be counted on, and everything else is questionable besides the bullpen and Zambrano. The offense should be secondary considering Derrek Lee will be returning, and we already have a leadoff replacement in Ryan Theriot (I am pretty confident he will be effective).

 

You say you're in the "Cubs need pitching camp" yet more of your "Cubs needs" involve offensive moves (2) than pitching moves (1).

[frostwyrm]

For the rotation the only expensive SP I'd add is Zito. The rest of the available funds would go to the offense, which is currently a train wreck. No Kerry Wood for me either.

 

Rotation would be

 

Zambrano

Zito

Prior

Hill

musical rookiechair

 

Prior is a question mark, but so are a lot of people we could get.

[Magnetic Curses]

For the rotation the only expensive SP I'd add is Zito. The rest of the available funds would go to the offense, which is currently a train wreck. No Kerry Wood for me either.

 

Rotation would be

 

Zambrano

Zito

Prior

Hill

musical rookiechair

 

Prior is a question mark, but so are a lot of people we could get.

 

first off, i don't know why you wouldn't want wood back at a reasonable, incentive-laden deal. it's a virtual no risk/high reward situation. i'm all for those.

 

i agree with adding zito, but there were two train wrecks on this team last season, pitching and offense. pitching is much more important than offense, so an appropriate amount more should be spent on it.

[soccer10k]

For the rotation the only expensive SP I'd add is Zito. The rest of the available funds would go to the offense, which is currently a train wreck. No Kerry Wood for me either.

 

Rotation would be

 

Zambrano

Zito

Prior

Hill

musical rookiechair

 

Prior is a question mark, but so are a lot of people we could get.

 

first off, i don't know why you wouldn't want wood back at a reasonable, incentive-laden deal. it's a virtual no risk/high reward situation. i'm all for those.

 

i agree with adding zito, but there were two train wrecks on this team last season, pitching and offense. pitching is much more important than offense, so an appropriate amount more should be spent on it.

 

When did pitching become "much more important" than offense?

[Yestheydo]

When did pitching become "much more important" than offense?

 

When the Tigers beat the best lineup we'll ever see in our lifetime with superior pitching. (Getting ahead of myself, but Monroe just homered)

[CubinNY]

When did pitching become "much more important" than offense?

 

When the Tigers beat the best lineup we'll ever see in our lifetime with superior pitching. (Getting ahead of myself, but Monroe just homered)

 

Anything can happen is a short season.

[Yestheydo]

When did pitching become "much more important" than offense?

 

When the Tigers beat the best lineup we'll ever see in our lifetime with superior pitching. (Getting ahead of myself, but Monroe just homered)

 

Anything can happen is a short season.

 

Yeah, but it's funny how often "Anything" happens in the postseason.

[CubinNY]

When did pitching become "much more important" than offense?

 

When the Tigers beat the best lineup we'll ever see in our lifetime with superior pitching. (Getting ahead of myself, but Monroe just homered)

 

Anything can happen is a short season.

 

Yeah, but it's funny how often "Anything" happens in the postseason.

I really don't feel like going down this road for the 15th time, but if by "anything" you mean the old saw," that good pitching beats good hitting" the data don't support that as far WS champion goes.

 

This same team that is whipping the Yankees lost their last three games of the season to the Royals.

[nilodnayr]

 

I agree that we need to improve on both sides of the ball. I'm just saying that improving offensively to the point where we can overcome a barren rotation of Z/?/?/Hill/? isn't in the cards. The offensive talent isn't there.

 

We need another ace badly.

 

We're not going to sign two of the top tier FA this offseason. A lot of clubs have money to burn and better chances at the post-season. I'd be stunned if we signed one.

 

But, if we do sign one stud FA, it should be a pitcher. They have the most impact.

 

I disagree. A hitter will play in 140-160 games. A pitcher will impact about 35. You go with the hitter.

 

As far as our rotation goes, keep in mind Mark Prior will likely be back and closer to his previous form than he was this year. Zambrano, Prior and Hill in no particular order is pretty decent. Finding 2 more starters shouldn't be that hard.

 

Actually, if you think about it, they are about the same by some real quick math using the following assumptions:

 

Influence on the outcome of a game:

Offense:40%

Defense:10%

Starters:40%

Relievers:10%

 

For the purposes of the analysis I am going to ignore relievers and defense since we are probably talking about a corner OF, who accounts for very little of that 10% of defense's influence.

 

A starter pitches once out of every 5 games so his value is 20% * 40%.

 

Order in the lineup:Influence on offense (NL)

1:14%

2:14%

3:20%

4:20%

5:14%

6:8%

7:6%

8:3%

9:1%

 

So, lets say we bring in a #3 or #4 hitter who plays every single game and is never replaced in the late innings. His value is 40% * 20%, or exactly the same as a starting pitcher.

 

Of course this is all based on these assumptions, which can be agrued and most likely backed up statistically, but probably aren't too far off from what I've said here. So, use this more directionally. And that direction shows that a starting pitcher is about as important to the outcome of a season as a starting pitcher.

[nilodnayr]

For the rotation the only expensive SP I'd add is Zito. The rest of the available funds would go to the offense, which is currently a train wreck. No Kerry Wood for me either.

 

Rotation would be

 

Zambrano

Zito

Prior

Hill

musical rookiechair

 

Prior is a question mark, but so are a lot of people we could get.

 

first off, i don't know why you wouldn't want wood back at a reasonable, incentive-laden deal. it's a virtual no risk/high reward situation. i'm all for those.

 

i agree with adding zito, but there were two train wrecks on this team last season, pitching and offense. pitching is much more important than offense, so an appropriate amount more should be spent on it.

 

I think starting pitching and offense are equally important and both need to improve to put us in a position to make the playoffs (of course once we get there pitching is more important). However, I think pitching is more difficult to acquire through trade. If I am making a list of starting pitchers, there are only 3 elite. Mussina is old and had an average 04 and 05 and was lucky in 06 (and average in the second half). Schmidt has the talent and can perform, but we just can't have another injured pitcher. Matsuzaka is probably the best, but a risk. Plus, I don't think we have a chance to get him. However, the overseas marketing opportunities have to have McDonough drooling. Zito is the safest bet. Hes a known commodity, easy thrower, lower injury risk, and a lefty. Pretty much everything Hendry is looking for.

 

I would turn to the trading market to improve the offense. Getting rid of contracts such as Jones, Izturis, Rusch, Dempster allows you significant spending room to also improve the offense. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, but I think the Nationals could be one stop shopping to solve our offensive problems.

[A New Era]

I'd add Zito and negotiate a deal with Miller (Miller would "figuritivly" atleast to me, not a FA sign) because we have the ability to talk with him first to "re-up" his contract.

 

From there I would be happy if we could just make ONE big move for the offense. Be it soriano, andrew jones, a-rod, or anyone of that nature.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'd add Zito and negotiate a deal with Miller (Miller would "figuritivly" atleast to me, not a FA sign) because we have the ability to talk with him first to "re-up" his contract.

 

From there I would be happy if we could just make ONE big move for the offense. Be it soriano, andrew jones, a-rod, or anyone of that nature.

 

If guys like Andruw Jones, Dunn and ARod really might be available, Hendry needs to focus on them and get at least 1, ideally 2. He can pull off trades a heck of a lot better than he can big FS signings.

[soccer10k]

When did pitching become "much more important" than offense?

 

When the Tigers beat the best lineup we'll ever see in our lifetime with superior pitching. (Getting ahead of myself, but Monroe just homered)

 

Anything can happen is a short season.

 

Yeah, but it's funny how often "Anything" happens in the postseason.

 

The regular season is 162 games. Generally things will even out. In a best of 5 series, things don't have a chance to even out.

[Magnetic Curses]

ERA League rankings for world series teams over the last 5 years.

 

2005: white sox (1) vs astros (2)

 

2004: red sox (3) vs cardinals (2)

 

2003: marlins (7) vs yankees (3)

 

2002: angels (2) vs giants (2)

 

2001: dbacks (2) vs yankees (3)

[frostwyrm]

For the rotation the only expensive SP I'd add is Zito. The rest of the available funds would go to the offense, which is currently a train wreck. No Kerry Wood for me either.

 

Rotation would be

 

Zambrano

Zito

Prior

Hill

musical rookiechair

 

Prior is a question mark, but so are a lot of people we could get.

 

first off, i don't know why you wouldn't want wood back at a reasonable, incentive-laden deal. it's a virtual no risk/high reward situation. i'm all for those.

 

i agree with adding zito, but there were two train wrecks on this team last season, pitching and offense. pitching is much more important than offense, so an appropriate amount more should be spent on it.

Signing Wood = $20 million bullpen. No thanks. I also don't believe we'll contend without major upgrades to the offense.

[Magnetic Curses]

For the rotation the only expensive SP I'd add is Zito. The rest of the available funds would go to the offense, which is currently a train wreck. No Kerry Wood for me either.

 

Rotation would be

 

Zambrano

Zito

Prior

Hill

musical rookiechair

 

Prior is a question mark, but so are a lot of people we could get.

 

first off, i don't know why you wouldn't want wood back at a reasonable, incentive-laden deal. it's a virtual no risk/high reward situation. i'm all for those.

 

i agree with adding zito, but there were two train wrecks on this team last season, pitching and offense. pitching is much more important than offense, so an appropriate amount more should be spent on it.

Signing Wood = $20 million bullpen. No thanks. I also don't believe we'll contend without major upgrades to the offense.

 

it's not wood's fault that hendry overspent last offseason. i think wood would be effective and cheap as a closer, personally.

 

as far as offense, well, i guess you just won't listen to reason. i've made clear that it's pretty common for a below average offense to make the postseason when accompanied by a very good pitching staff.

 

i see no reason why our aim should simply be to make both offense and pitching merely average when we could make our staff very above average and make the postseason.

[nilodnayr]

For the rotation the only expensive SP I'd add is Zito. The rest of the available funds would go to the offense, which is currently a train wreck. No Kerry Wood for me either.

 

Rotation would be

 

Zambrano

Zito

Prior

Hill

musical rookiechair

 

Prior is a question mark, but so are a lot of people we could get.

 

first off, i don't know why you wouldn't want wood back at a reasonable, incentive-laden deal. it's a virtual no risk/high reward situation. i'm all for those.

 

i agree with adding zito, but there were two train wrecks on this team last season, pitching and offense. pitching is much more important than offense, so an appropriate amount more should be spent on it.

Signing Wood = $20 million bullpen. No thanks. I also don't believe we'll contend without major upgrades to the offense.

 

it's not wood's fault that hendry overspent last offseason. i think wood would be effective and cheap as a closer, personally.

 

as far as offense, well, i guess you just won't listen to reason. i've made clear that it's pretty common for a below average offense to make the postseason when accompanied by a very good pitching staff.

 

i see no reason why our aim should simply be to make both offense and pitching merely average when we could make our staff very above average and make the postseason.

 

Actually, you've shown the ERA figures from the WS teams, but it would help your case if you showed all playoff teams rank in ERA and Runs Scored. I'm not saying its going to prove or disprove your point, but it would be more appropriate for the case you are trying to make.

[soccer10k]

ERA League rankings for world series teams over the last 5 years.

 

2005: white sox (1) vs astros (2)

 

2004: red sox (3) vs cardinals (2)

 

2003: marlins (7) vs yankees (3)

 

2002: angels (2) vs giants (2)

 

2001: dbacks (2) vs yankees (3)

 

As per your request nilodnayr:

 

2005: White Sox (9) vs Astros (11)

2004: Red Sox (1) vs Cardinals (1)

2003: Marlins (8) vs Yankees (3)

2002: Angels (4) vs Giants (3)

2001: DBacks (3) vs Yankees (5)

[Milli1306]

as to whoever it was that didn't want Mussina...why not? He may be getting old, but he has been effective in the AL...and effective AL pitchers become good NL pitchers all the time...and Moose was a very good pitcher in the AL for quite a few years

[goonys evil twin]

as to whoever it was that didn't want Mussina...why not? He may be getting old, but he has been effective in the AL...and effective AL pitchers become good NL pitchers all the time...and Moose was a very good pitcher in the AL for quite a few years

 

He's been inconsistent in recent years, after a career of nothing but high quality seasons.

 

ERA+ of:

142

108

129

98

101

125

 

Plus, health has kept him from throwing 200 innings for three straight years now. He's basically a 6 ip/ 3 ER pitcher now. But he's going to get paid like an ace. He'd be better than most Cubs pitchers, but a very inefficient use of resources. You can't ignore the age. He'll be 38/39/40 if he signs a 3 year deal. He's been worse than Maddux was leading up to his age 38 season (first year with Cubs), and that contract did not turn out well. If the Cubs were a great team with a little financial flexibility, he'd be a pretty decent gamble. But as a bad team needing massive improvements, there's just far better options to spend the money on.

[Magnetic Curses]

For the rotation the only expensive SP I'd add is Zito. The rest of the available funds would go to the offense, which is currently a train wreck. No Kerry Wood for me either.

 

Rotation would be

 

Zambrano

Zito

Prior

Hill

musical rookiechair

 

Prior is a question mark, but so are a lot of people we could get.

 

first off, i don't know why you wouldn't want wood back at a reasonable, incentive-laden deal. it's a virtual no risk/high reward situation. i'm all for those.

 

i agree with adding zito, but there were two train wrecks on this team last season, pitching and offense. pitching is much more important than offense, so an appropriate amount more should be spent on it.

Signing Wood = $20 million bullpen. No thanks. I also don't believe we'll contend without major upgrades to the offense.

 

it's not wood's fault that hendry overspent last offseason. i think wood would be effective and cheap as a closer, personally.

 

as far as offense, well, i guess you just won't listen to reason. i've made clear that it's pretty common for a below average offense to make the postseason when accompanied by a very good pitching staff.

 

i see no reason why our aim should simply be to make both offense and pitching merely average when we could make our staff very above average and make the postseason.

 

Actually, you've shown the ERA figures from the WS teams, but it would help your case if you showed all playoff teams rank in ERA and Runs Scored. I'm not saying its going to prove or disprove your point, but it would be more appropriate for the case you are trying to make.

 

i didn't have enough time.

[nilodnayr]

as to whoever it was that didn't want Mussina...why not? He may be getting old, but he has been effective in the AL...and effective AL pitchers become good NL pitchers all the time...and Moose was a very good pitcher in the AL for quite a few years

"Was" is the operative word. Over the past 3 years hes had a half a season of being a quality pitcher, yet is going to get like 10M a year. Signing a top tier starter should be priority #1 this offseason, and IMO there are really only 3 options, not 4.

[nilodnayr]

ERA League rankings for world series teams over the last 5 years.

 

2005: white sox (1) vs astros (2)

 

2004: red sox (3) vs cardinals (2)

 

2003: marlins (7) vs yankees (3)

 

2002: angels (2) vs giants (2)

 

2001: dbacks (2) vs yankees (3)

 

As per your request nilodnayr:

 

2005: White Sox (9) vs Astros (11)

2004: Red Sox (1) vs Cardinals (1)

2003: Marlins (8) vs Yankees (3)

2002: Angels (4) vs Giants (3)

2001: DBacks (3) vs Yankees (5)

 

My internet is currently shady at best, so I apologize for not taking initiative, but could some one provide this for all playoff teams, not just WS opponents? We all know that once you make it to the playoffs pitching is more important. However, looking at just the WS teams as a proxy, it looks like that save 05, hitting is just as important as pitching.