The Importance of Good Baserunning

[cheapseats]

Considering the Cubs' emphasis on team speed this year, the Dan Fox article at Baseball Prospectus yesterday is really interesting.

 

Dan has created baserunning stats that measure runs created by advancing on groundballs, advancing on flyouts (tagging up), stealing bases, and taking an extra base on hits.

 

The one thing that I found particularly interesting was that, over a six year period (2000-2005), the best baserunner, Carlos Beltran, added about 25 or 26 runs through his baserunning. The worst baserunner during that time period, Jorge Posada, cost the Yankees about 20 runs, so the difference between the best and worst baserunner in MLB was about 45 runs.

 

As frustrating as it was to watch Moises Alou get doubled off on flyballs, or as frustrating as it may be to watch Jacque Jones get picked off second, bad baserunning doesn't hurt a team over the long haul as much as I would have guessed.

 

Conversely, over the long haul, good baserunning doesn't help the team as much as I would have guessed. Juan Pierre's baserunning was worth about 18-19 runs from 2000-2005, although that number would be better if he didn't get caught stealing so often and did a better job of tagging up on fly balls.

 

Anyway, although we probably didn't need another reason to doubt Hendry's team speed obsession, here it is.

 

OBP>SLG>speed

[neely crenshaw]

it really shows up when you don't have a lot of pop in your lineup.

little things in general get magnified. every defensive miscue, every base running blunder or just plain ole errors mean so much more when you don't have great offense

[Soriano12]

That is an interesting note on Beltran. Thank you for posting that.

 

I have stated before that not getting Beltran after the 04 season was

of the greatest mistakes by Cubs brass over the past few seasons.

 

They knew they were loosing a ton of production in the OF with Alou leaving

via FA, and Sosa beign excommunicated from Chicago.

 

Granted Lee picked up ton of slack power wise at 1B vs what was there in 2003 and prior to that.

 

But Beltran would have provided immediate stabliity to that OF.

 

There is no reason why the front office couldn't have ate some more $$$,

and/or they could have worked the deal for the big dollars to set in after

the Sosa deal was off the books.

[YearofDaCubs]

That is an interesting note on Beltran. Thank you for posting that.

 

I have stated before that not getting Beltran after the 04 season was

of the greatest mistakes by Cubs brass over the past few seasons.

 

They knew they were loosing a ton of production in the OF with Alou leaving

via FA, and Sosa beign excommunicated from Chicago.

 

Granted Lee picked up ton of slack power wise at 1B vs what was there in 2003 and prior to that.

 

But Beltran would have provided immediate stabliity to that OF.

 

There is no reason why the front office couldn't have ate some more $$$,

and/or they could have worked the deal for the big dollars to set in after

the Sosa deal was off the books.

Beltran is a difference maker, instead we ended up with Burnitz. Hendry and his lack of foresight.

[CuseCubFan69]

I think when you add up the lack of baserunning and the other intangables it does add up. But, you have to have talented players to begin with and Mr. Hendry so far has found that idea quite elusive.

[EastonBlues22]

Considering the Cubs' emphasis on team speed this year, the Dan Fox article at Baseball Prospectus yesterday is really interesting.

 

Dan has created baserunning stats that measure runs created by advancing on groundballs, advancing on flyouts (tagging up), stealing bases, and taking an extra base on hits.

 

The one thing that I found particularly interesting was that, over a six year period (2000-2005), the best baserunner, Carlos Beltran, added about 25 or 26 runs through his baserunning. The worst baserunner during that time period, Jorge Posada, cost the Yankees about 20 runs, so the difference between the best and worst baserunner in MLB was about 45 runs.

 

As frustrating as it was to watch Moises Alou get doubled off on flyballs, or as frustrating as it may be to watch Jacque Jones get picked off second, bad baserunning doesn't hurt a team over the long haul as much as I would have guessed.

 

Conversely, over the long haul, good baserunning doesn't help the team as much as I would have guessed. Juan Pierre's baserunning was worth about 18-19 runs from 2000-2005, although that number would be better if he didn't get caught stealing so often and did a better job of tagging up on fly balls.

 

Anyway, although we probably didn't need another reason to doubt Hendry's team speed obsession, here it is.

 

OBP>SLG>speed

Good post.

 

Elaborating on that a little bit, if you have an average baserunning team, and improve its baserunning by just 1 run worth per position per year, that's about a one win diference in the standings right there. If you have a below average running team and retool it into an above average one, you might be talking about as many as 4 wins. Not much, but more than I would have guessed.

[NorthsideAvenger]

That is an interesting note on Beltran. Thank you for posting that.

 

I have stated before that not getting Beltran after the 04 season was

of the greatest mistakes by Cubs brass over the past few seasons.

 

They knew they were loosing a ton of production in the OF with Alou leaving

via FA, and Sosa beign excommunicated from Chicago.

 

Granted Lee picked up ton of slack power wise at 1B vs what was there in 2003 and prior to that.

 

But Beltran would have provided immediate stabliity to that OF.

 

There is no reason why the front office couldn't have ate some more $$$,

and/or they could have worked the deal for the big dollars to set in after

the Sosa deal was off the books.

Beltran is a difference maker, instead we ended up with Burnitz. Hendry and his lack of foresight.

 

I don't think we can fault Hendry for not getting Beltran. The feeling I get is that Hendry wanted to go after Beltran, but was told by prolly either Fitzsimmons or MacPhail that he had to move Sosa first. Hence the reason for it taking so long to move Sosa. Otherwise, I think you would have seen Hendry going after Beltran.

 

But here WE do have Beltran, Jr.

[Jehrico]

dbl post... Edited September 8, 2006 by Jehrico

[Jehrico]

That is an interesting note on Beltran. Thank you for posting that.

 

I have stated before that not getting Beltran after the 04 season was

of the greatest mistakes by Cubs brass over the past few seasons.

 

They knew they were loosing a ton of production in the OF with Alou leaving

via FA, and Sosa beign excommunicated from Chicago.

 

Granted Lee picked up ton of slack power wise at 1B vs what was there in 2003 and prior to that.

 

But Beltran would have provided immediate stabliity to that OF.

 

There is no reason why the front office couldn't have ate some more $$$,

and/or they could have worked the deal for the big dollars to set in after

the Sosa deal was off the books.

Beltran is a difference maker, instead we ended up with Burnitz. Hendry and his lack of foresight.

I think there were things out of Hendry's control that contributed to us not getting Beltran. That said, one thing I'm tired of seeing with the Cubs (Not just Hendry, but his predecessors too) is the inability to go out and bring in the impact FA. The biggest FA I can recall us bringing in was Moises, and he was past his prime. I'd like to see us bring in an impact FA entering his prime one of these days. That's another thing that irritates me about Dusty...wasn't he supposed to be the manager these guys wanted to play for? Well, where are they?

[cheapseats]

FA entering his prime one of these days. That's another thing that irritates me about Dusty...wasn't he supposed to be the manager these guys wanted to play for? Well, where are they?

 

In a roundabout way, signing Dusty might have actually kept us from getting free agents. He is/was getting paid $4 million, while guys managing for the first time usually get $400,000 to $600,000. Lloyd McClendon only got $300,000 when he signed with the Pirates.

 

Could the Cubs have used an extra $3.5 million each year in 2003-2006?

 

That's almost enough to pay for Neifi AND Mabry. :twisted:

[Jehrico]

FA entering his prime one of these days. That's another thing that irritates me about Dusty...wasn't he supposed to be the manager these guys wanted to play for? Well, where are they?

 

In a roundabout way, signing Dusty might have actually kept us from getting free agents. He is/was getting paid $4 million, while guys managing for the first time usually get $400,000 to $600,000. Lloyd McClendon only got $300,000 when he signed with the Pirates.

 

Could the Cubs have used an extra $3.5 million each year in 2003-2006?

 

That's almost enough to pay for Neifi AND Mabry. :twisted:

Salt in the wound....

[CubinNY]

That is an interesting note on Beltran. Thank you for posting that.

 

I have stated before that not getting Beltran after the 04 season was

of the greatest mistakes by Cubs brass over the past few seasons.

 

They knew they were loosing a ton of production in the OF with Alou leaving

via FA, and Sosa beign excommunicated from Chicago.

 

Granted Lee picked up ton of slack power wise at 1B vs what was there in 2003 and prior to that.

 

But Beltran would have provided immediate stabliity to that OF.

 

There is no reason why the front office couldn't have ate some more $$$,

and/or they could have worked the deal for the big dollars to set in after

the Sosa deal was off the books.

Beltran is a difference maker, instead we ended up with Burnitz. Hendry and his lack of foresight.

 

I so wanted Beltran when he was on the market. Here was a player who is entering his prime and would likely produce throuhout the length of his contract. Going into 2005 Patterson was no sure thing, as we found out. Besides think about the defense.... Patterson in RF and Beltran in CF.

 

Oh well, now we have JJ and will likely have Pierre for another two years.

[hardcorecubfan]

whatever happened to tagging up, the cubs seam to do it the least, esp. from first to second. Are the arms that much better?

[TB_11]

That is an interesting note on Beltran. Thank you for posting that.

 

I have stated before that not getting Beltran after the 04 season was

of the greatest mistakes by Cubs brass over the past few seasons.

 

They knew they were loosing a ton of production in the OF with Alou leaving

via FA, and Sosa beign excommunicated from Chicago.

 

Granted Lee picked up ton of slack power wise at 1B vs what was there in 2003 and prior to that.

 

But Beltran would have provided immediate stabliity to that OF.

 

There is no reason why the front office couldn't have ate some more $$$,

and/or they could have worked the deal for the big dollars to set in after

the Sosa deal was off the books.

Beltran is a difference maker, instead we ended up with Burnitz. Hendry and his lack of foresight.

 

I so wanted Beltran when he was on the market. Here was a player who is entering his prime and would likely produce throuhout the length of his contract. Going into 2005 Patterson was no sure thing, as we found out. Besides think about the defense.... Patterson in RF and Beltran in CF.

 

Oh well, now we have JJ and will likely have Pierre for another two years.

 

The Jones and Pierre signings aside, after 2004 was Beltran worth $17M/year when he had a career high OPS+ of 136? As great as his 2006 season has been, he and Boras were leveraging his incredible 2004 postseason to get completely overpaid, at the time, by the Mets.

[CubinNY]

That is an interesting note on Beltran. Thank you for posting that.

 

I have stated before that not getting Beltran after the 04 season was

of the greatest mistakes by Cubs brass over the past few seasons.

 

They knew they were loosing a ton of production in the OF with Alou leaving

via FA, and Sosa beign excommunicated from Chicago.

 

Granted Lee picked up ton of slack power wise at 1B vs what was there in 2003 and prior to that.

 

But Beltran would have provided immediate stabliity to that OF.

 

There is no reason why the front office couldn't have ate some more $$$,

and/or they could have worked the deal for the big dollars to set in after

the Sosa deal was off the books.

Beltran is a difference maker, instead we ended up with Burnitz. Hendry and his lack of foresight.

 

I so wanted Beltran when he was on the market. Here was a player who is entering his prime and would likely produce throuhout the length of his contract. Going into 2005 Patterson was no sure thing, as we found out. Besides think about the defense.... Patterson in RF and Beltran in CF.

 

Oh well, now we have JJ and will likely have Pierre for another two years.

 

The Jones and Pierre signings aside, after 2004 was Beltran worth $17M/year when he had a career high OPS+ of 136? As great as his 2006 season has been, he and Boras were leveraging his incredible 2004 postseason to get completely overpaid, at the time, by the Mets.

 

What you are saying is all correct, but Beltran will produce and be over paid.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

What you are saying is all correct, but Beltran will produce and be over paid.

 

Extremely important point.