The Soccer Thread

[Exile on Waveland]

Can I get, admittedly, way, way ahead of myself?

 

The US should not settle for second place in the group (now, I don't think they'll be "settling" for second as I'd be thrilled to advance and England is a clear-cut favorite in the group). However, second place in the group will likely result in a first game with Germany. First place in the group likely will result in a matchup against Australia/Serbia/Ghana, all of whom would be beatable. Further, the next game would be against the Group A winner -- South Africa/Mexico/Uruguay/France. So the difference between first and second in the group could be the difference between playing Germany then Argentina or Australia then (a depleted) France.

 

Obviously, the gigantic premature caveats apply that (i) I'll be thrilled to advance again; and (ii) England will most assuredly win the group anyway, mooting post.

[UMFan83]

The funny thing about USA's dream draw, is their lowest ranked team is higher ranked than any other pool's lowest ranked team.

[bukie]

Draw by SPI:

Group A: South Africa (65), Mexico (19), France (11), Uruguay (10)

Group B: Argentina (5), Nigeria (34), South Korea (42), Greece (33)

Group C: England (3), United States (16), Algeria (46), Slovenia (37)

Group D: Germany (6), Australia (23), Serbia (13), Ghana (36)

Group E: Netherlands (4), Denmark (20), Japan (35), Cameroon (15)

Group F: Italy (12), Paraguay (18), New Zealand (91), Slovakia (50)

Group G: Brazil (1), North Korea (92), Ivory Coast (9), Portugal (7)

Group H: Spain (2), Switzerland (31), Honduras (25), Chile (8)

 

Difficulty of group by average SPI:

Group H: 79.35

Group E: 78.125

Group D: 77.475

Group G: 76.875

Group C: 76.725

Group A: 75.25

Group B: 75.15

Group F: 70.45

 

What it means:

- Group G is definitely the Group of Death, but North Korea is so weak that the average team rating is brought down.

- Group F is so cake, Italy could walk through 10-man.

- Groups H, E and D don't look really strong up front, but none has a bad team in the group.

- Spain and Brazil certainly weren't done any favors in their groups, other than North Korea.

[bukie]

The funny thing about USA's dream draw, is their lowest ranked team is higher ranked than any other pool's lowest ranked team.

According to FIFA ranking, yes, but Slovenia and Algeria are arguably the weakest teams in their respective pools. Other than the England draw, it all worked out.

[wolf stansson]

Obviously like you all, I feel good about this group. England are imminently beatable with their problems in the back at gk and the d. Algeria should be a w. Slovenia should be a w. We could potentially win the group. Have to beat England to do so though. If we draw, I like their chances of having the better g differential. If we lose, well, obviously we would then have to finish 2nd because I don't see either Algeria or Slovenia beating England.

[bukie]

And yeah, South Africa got a terrible draw for being seeded. When's the last time the host nation failed to make it out of group play?

[Guest]

And yeah, South Africa got a terrible draw for being seeded. When's the last time the host nation failed to make it out of group play?

 

Never happened. The host has always advanced.

[TruffleShuffle]

And yeah, South Africa got a terrible draw for being seeded. When's the last time the host nation failed to make it out of group play?

 

Never happened. The host has always advanced.

 

i have to think that south africa is the worst team to ever host a world cup, though.

[Guest]

And yeah, South Africa got a terrible draw for being seeded. When's the last time the host nation failed to make it out of group play?

 

Never happened. The host has always advanced.

 

i have to think that south africa is the worst team to ever host a world cup, though.

 

I think USSoccer said earlier in the thread that they're right up there with us in 1994. And we only got through as a third place team. I don't know how highly we were rated back then but it couldn't have been a whole lot better than SA is now.

[Exile on Waveland]

And yeah, South Africa got a terrible draw for being seeded. When's the last time the host nation failed to make it out of group play?

 

Never happened. The host has always advanced.

 

i have to think that south africa is the worst team to ever host a world cup, though.

 

I think USSoccer said earlier in the thread that they're right up there with us in 1994. And we only got through as a third place team. I don't know how highly we were rated back then but it couldn't have been a whole lot better than SA is now.

 

USA! USA! USA!

[USSoccer]

4 points should be enough to get 2nd in the group. England are going to roll through Algeria and Slovenia. I think we should beat Slovenia with some comfort and ease, and Algeria was the weakest African side possible. If we don't advance, I'll be disappointed, injuries and all. I'd rather have faced England on matchday 3 but whatever. That game's going to get massive ratings. ABC/ESPN must have wet themselves when they saw that.

 

If we could somehow draw with England I'd be ecstatic.

 

Beasley should have about the same perspective as I do on 6/18...watching at home.

 

Group G is nasty. Imagine Brasil not advancing...

[bukie]

4 points should be enough to get 2nd in the group. England are going to roll through Algeria and Slovenia. I think we should beat Slovenia with some comfort and ease, and Algeria was the weakest African side possible. If we don't advance, I'll be disappointed, injuries and all. I'd rather have faced England on matchday 3 but whatever. That game's going to get massive ratings. ABC/ESPN must have wet themselves when they saw that.

 

If we could somehow draw with England I'd be ecstatic.

 

Beasley should have about the same perspective as I do on 6/18...watching at home.

 

Group G is nasty. Imagine Brasil not advancing...

I could definitely see three 1-0-2 teams in Group G, advancement depending on who thrashes North Korea the worst.

[TruffleShuffle]

4 points should be enough to get 2nd in the group. England are going to roll through Algeria and Slovenia. I think we should beat Slovenia with some comfort and ease, and Algeria was the weakest African side possible. If we don't advance, I'll be disappointed, injuries and all.

 

we definitely should beat algeria. my fear with slovenia is them boring us to death and them winning 1-0 or playing to a scoreless draw, then ending up in tie-breaker with slovenia at the end.

 

 

on another note, france annoys me just like they annoy everyone i wish people would stop writing stuff like this:

 

France did not do all that badly with its two other opponents, Mexico and Uruguay. This is particularly true considering that if any of the three officials on the field in the last qualifying match had been competent or even perceptive regarding Thierry Henry’s blatant two-touch handball, then France would not be in the World Cup, and Ireland would be. This theme is not going away.

 

no, france MIGHT not have been in the world cup, and ireland MIGHT have.

[bukie]

I had a feeling France would get South Africa's group after the seed announcements. Now it's like all the teams they wanted to advance will get a fair shot.

 

Except maybe Brazil.

[UMFan83]

The only way I see the USA not advancing is by losing to England and drawing against either of the other 2. And even then we'd only miss out on goal differential, and that's only if the team we draw is the same team that wins the Slovenia-Algeria matchup. I am of course assuming England rolls through those 2. So worse case scenario would be:

 

England beats USA by multiple goals

Slovenia beats Algeria by multiple goals

USA draws Slovenia

England beats Slovenia in a close matchup

USA wins close game against Algeria

 

If that scenario occured though, the US obviously wouldn't at all be playing it's best ball and wouldn't deserve to advance anyways.

[wolf stansson]

Best case scenario is Algeria and Slovenia draw on the first Sunday. Neither are doing more than a miracle draw with England. As long as we beat them both, we're through if they draw in that first game.

[SpongeWorthy]

Would it really be "miraculous" for a team like Algeria or Slovenia (or even the US) to beat a team like England?

 

How does an upset in international soccer compare to an upset in other sports? More or less common?

[Guest]

Here's a random soccer question that I got from Soccernomics.

 

What is the only team in the world that has played but never lost to the Brazilian national team?

[brinoch]

Best case scenario is Algeria and Slovenia draw on the first Sunday. Neither are doing more than a miracle draw with England. As long as we beat them both, we're through if they draw in that first game.

 

Yes. Ignoring any other results, an Algeria-Slovenia draw would be really, really good for the US.

[bukie]

Here's a random soccer question that I got from Soccernomics.

 

What is the only team in the world that has played but never lost to the Brazilian national team?

Norway, 2 wins, 2 ties.

[Guest]

Here's a random soccer question that I got from Soccernomics.

 

What is the only team in the world that has played but never lost to the Brazilian national team?

Norway, 2 wins, 2 ties.

 

Yup. Just kind of an odd country to have done it, and it's not even one game either. Norway's only made the WC three times (last in 1998) and advanced out of their group only once. They've also only qualified for the Euro Championships once

 

The only other team to have beaten Brazil more times than they've lost is Hungary, with three wins, two losses and a tie.

[UMFan83]

Here's a random soccer question that I got from Soccernomics.

 

What is the only team in the world that has played but never lost to the Brazilian national team?

Norway, 2 wins, 2 ties.

 

Yup. Just kind of an odd country to have done it, and it's not even one game either. Norway's only made the WC three times (last in 1998) and advanced out of their group only once. They've also only qualified for the Euro Championships once

 

The only other team to have beaten Brazil more times than they've lost is Hungary, with three wins, two losses and a tie.

 

Wow that's odd. Norway has had semi-decent team's before though. Most notably in the 90's.

[Mark Priors Calves]

I don't have much to add that hasn't already been said. I was pissed when we drew England and the pessimistic sports fan in me came out and I thought we were going to get nailed with the group of death. I was ecstatic when I saw Algeria and Slovenia though.

 

One of the interesting things Bob Bradley mentioned was the close proximity within RSA of all the group games. He mentioned they could drive to all the matches and already had base camps scouted within the area.

 

I can't wait til effing June.

[shnsajax]

What kind of reaction did this get on SportsCenter. I'm sure espn is falling all over themselves with this today.

[Mark Priors Calves]

It opened PTI and it was mentioned in the intro to Sportscenter. The story was after the Florida-Alabama and it was on a few minutes into the show.