Minor League Discussion & Boxes 8-11-2006

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Iowa won 5-4, Nashville is losing 3-1 in the 6th.

 

Pie went 1 for 4 with a walk

 

Soto went 2 for 3 with a 2B, HR and a walk.

 

They scored 4 of their 5 runs off Mark Mulder, who went 4 IP and gave up 4 Hits, 4 BB, K'ed 2, and gave up Soto's HR.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Three straight singles to RF (the second grounded through the IF) breaks up Mark's streak of 14-straight retired. The bases are loaded with one out and Mark Pawelek's evening is over. Roberto Sotolongo is coming in to make his Boise debut.

 

6.1 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 5 K, all 3 base runners are his responsibility.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I bet Sotolongo will give up all 3 of Pawelek's baserunners but won't give up any earned runs of his own.

 

And so it starts:

 

Bases-loaded BB. Boise up 7-1.

Errant pickoff throw allows the runner at third to score, runners at second and third and Boise up 7-2.

K swinging.

PO-8, Boise up 7-2 at the 7th inning stretch.

 

Pawelek: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R (should only be 1 ER), 5 K.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Alfred Joseph HBP, warnings issued. Boise is playing Everett, these two teams got into a brawl last time around that was partially instigated by Joseph and that HBP definitely had something to do with the brawl.

 

Peoria lost 3-1.

 

Mesa up 4-2 after 4. Rundle has the night off, Andersen is 0 for 0 with 2 BBs. Parker went 3 (gave up 2 ER on 4 H and a K) and Cuevas-Novas relieved him with a shutout inning.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Boise wins it 8-2.

 

Pawelek's ERA is down to 2.66 (though MiLB.com will say otherwise, since they're wrong). It's his first appearance of the season with no HBPs or BBs. It's Mark's second pro win.

 

Mesa is down 6-4 in the bottom of the 6th inning. Cuevas-Novas had 2 shutout innings, gave up 1 hit and getting 3 Ks. Leonel Perez then came in for the 6th and struggled, giving up 4 runs (3 ER) on 4 H and a walk.

[Laura]

Scott Moore's HR in the West Tenn game was his 18th, which puts him in a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the Southern League.

 

What's a sustainable BABIP? Do they have league variances? Moore has been on a nice hitting run so far in August, but I'm just guessing that .391 BABIP wouldn't be considered sustainable over the long term.

[Flames24Rulz]

Nice to hear Pawelek had a very solid outing tonight...

 

Don't think it was mentioned, but Nashville lost 4-2. Iowa is now just a half game out of first. Unbelievable considering at one point this season, they were close to 10 games out.

[Outshined_One]

What's a sustainable BABIP? Do they have league variances? Moore has been on a nice hitting run so far in August, but I'm just guessing that .391 BABIP wouldn't be considered sustainable over the long term.

 

Your guess would be correct. Something between .280-.310 is typically sustainable.

[jaxxradio]

Just to update everyone on the injuries with the Diamond Jaxx:

 

Gary Cates suffered a broken hand when he slid home after the inside the park home run on Wednesday night. He is gone for the year.

 

Brian Dopirak had his foot x-rayed in Chicago and his foot isn't healing as quickly as they would like. He is also out for the year.

 

Nic Jackson had an injury to his hip flexor. Unlike Chris Walker's injury to the same area that kept him out for a week or so, this one appears to be much worse. Nic is out for the season. Since he was already on the DL, he's already been replaced.

 

Jon-Mark Sprowl has been called up to West Tenn.

[the splendid splinter]

Well our newest sign Samson had two more hits and looks like he's played decent at ss!

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Daytona Beach News-Journal[/url]"]"I think the big part of the game was in the first inning," Bailey said. "(Pitcher Justin) Berg hadn't been out there in three weeks. They have a runner on and Muyco throws him out (stealing). They get a walk and Muyco throws that guy out. Next thing you know we're sitting on the bench. I think that was huge for our ballclub and Berg."

 

Berg was activated off the disabled list Friday. He had been sidelined because of a tired arm and weakness in his shoulder.

 

Berg did not figure in the decision, however. Reliever Steve Bronder (3-2) picked up the victory and closer Paul Schappert got his 13th save with a scoreless ninth, but not before making it interesting as the Manatees had runners on second and third when the lefty coaxed a game-ending groundout.

 

"We faced the (potential) tying run three hitters in a row with a three-run lead, but Schap finds a way to get it done," Bailey said. "He might create some gray hairs for the managers and coaches, but he ends up getting it done. And we needed the win. It's getting to that time of the year. We're fighting for a playoff spot and it doesn't matter how we do it, we gotta keep finding ways to put up W's, and we found a way."

 

PJ Star[/url]"]The Chicago Cubs promoted left-hander Fabien Jimenez to Peoria. Jimenez, who was 1-0 with a 1.56 ERA in three starts at short-season Boise, will replace fellow lefty Jesus Yepez in the rotation. Yepez moves to the bullpen. Jimenez was acquired along with Chiefs starter Joel Santo in the July 22 trade that sent Cubs reliever Scott Williamson to the San Diego Padres.

 

Jiminez looked good in his brief stint in Boise (though he still walked too many guys, imo...of course so does Yepez).

[Laura]

Thanks, OO. I suppose over the course of a season, short timeframes would include peaks and valleys in BABIP.

[craig]

Your guess would be correct. Something between .280-.310 is typically sustainable.

 

There are a number of excellent hitters who can sustain higher BABIP's over a series of years or over an entire career. Certainly not many, very few above .330.

 

The highest I'm aware of in the current majors is Derek jeter, who had a .360 BABIP over his 11 seasons entering this year. Kirby Puckett was a career .334. Rod Carew was .361. Ted Williams .329. Tony Gwynn .345. Nomar .323.

 

Harvey on season is .304 BABIP. So he's been non-sustainably hot lately, but his composite numbers are pretty normal, he must have had some bad luck early?

 

If you project Harvey's current numbers to a full, 160-game big-league season, you might project around 30 HR. The league might well have interest in a rocket-armed gold-glove RF who hit .250 with 30 HR's, even if his OBP was lousy.

 

The pessimist says that his horrible IsoD and K-rates agree that he's got no clue, that he can't see or react to pitches, and that it's likely that even better pitchers will kill him. That he won't be able to sustain his BABIP or HR rate, that he'll K even more, that his average and HR's will *not* hold up in higher leagues.

 

The optimist in me says that his walk and K-rates are so incredibly bad, tht with experience he can't help but get more selective, raise his IsoD, and become a smart and more selective hitter. He's still only 21. If so, his current output isn't that far short. A few extra walks, a few extra HR's, a few fewer K's, and suddenly a .718 OPS guy is a .788 OPS guy.

 

Take his current numbers, add 8 walks, 4 HR's, and convert 6 of his K's into batted balls, and suddenly you've got a .264BA-.320 OBP-.480slugging-.800 OPS guy, with the RF rocket, and he's back in our top 5.

 

Obviously adding 8 walks and 4 HR's, all while removing 6 K's, that isn't easy. I'm just trying to illustrate how it's not like he needs an immediate total makeover to get interesting. Just some small incremental adjustments. 8 more walks's and we'd still peg him as a horrific hackaway. 6 fewer K's and we'd still say his swing is full of holes. 4 more HR's, well, we've always said he was really strong. The same general profile; just some incremental small-step improvements in every area.

[TXCubsFan]

Your guess would be correct. Something between .280-.310 is typically sustainable.

 

There are a number of excellent hitters who can sustain higher BABIP's over a series of years or over an entire career. Certainly not many, very few above .330.

 

The highest I'm aware of in the current majors is Derek jeter, who had a .360 BABIP over his 11 seasons entering this year. Kirby Puckett was a career .334. Rod Carew was .361. Ted Williams .329. Tony Gwynn .345. Nomar .323.

 

Harvey on season is .304 BABIP. So he's been non-sustainably hot lately, but his composite numbers are pretty normal, he must have had some bad luck early?

 

If you project Harvey's current numbers to a full, 160-game big-league season, you might project around 30 HR. The league might well have interest in a rocket-armed gold-glove RF who hit .250 with 30 HR's, even if his OBP was lousy.

 

The pessimist says that his horrible IsoD and K-rates agree that he's got no clue, that he can't see or react to pitches, and that it's likely that even better pitchers will kill him. That he won't be able to sustain his BABIP or HR rate, that he'll K even more, that his average and HR's will *not* hold up in higher leagues.

 

The optimist in me says that his walk and K-rates are so incredibly bad, tht with experience he can't help but get more selective, raise his IsoD, and become a smart and more selective hitter. He's still only 21. If so, his current output isn't that far short. A few extra walks, a few extra HR's, a few fewer K's, and suddenly a .718 OPS guy is a .788 OPS guy.

 

Take his current numbers, add 8 walks, 4 HR's, and convert 6 of his K's into batted balls, and suddenly you've got a .264BA-.320 OBP-.480slugging-.800 OPS guy, with the RF rocket, and he's back in our top 5.

 

Obviously adding 8 walks and 4 HR's, all while removing 6 K's, that isn't easy. I'm just trying to illustrate how it's not like he needs an immediate total makeover to get interesting. Just some small incremental adjustments. 8 more walks's and we'd still peg him as a horrific hackaway. 6 fewer K's and we'd still say his swing is full of holes. 4 more HR's, well, we've always said he was really strong. The same general profile; just some incremental small-step improvements in every area.

 

Harvey might make a nice #6 hitter in the majors: good SLG, low OBP, excellent defense. Maybe not a superstar, but a complementary piece on a good team.

[craig]

Harvey might make a nice #6 hitter in the majors: good SLG, low OBP, excellent defense. Maybe not a superstar, but a complementary piece on a good team.

 

Yeah, that's what the optimist side of me hopes.

 

It's a stretch, but I could envision him being somewhat comparable to my memory of Henry Rodriguez. Rodriguez hung around for 11 seasons and made over $15 million as a low-OBP HR-hitter, and without Harvey's defensive virtue.

 

That will be pretty tough, though. Henry OBP'd at .321, not as bad as I'd have expected.