Reasons for limiting pitches thrown by starters?

[TB_11]

An argument used by those who don't believe in limiting pitch counts of starters is often "They didn't limit pitch counts or innings pitched in the old days and everyone was fine." And the numbers back the reasoning up, somewhat: In the period after WWII and before the strike, the league leader in innings pitched would often log 275-350 IP or more, compared to the ~250 IP since.

 

What's the reasoning for why we should be limiting pitchers innings now, and why they didn't have to previously? Is it pitchers are throwing more pitches per inning these days, due to the recent offensive explosion? Is it they tend to throw more growing up and in the minors, so the arm is taxed more by the time they reach the majors? Did pitchers previously pitch through pain with negative long-term effects that are now just coming to light? Was it only a select few who could last through 300 IP before? Do "newer" pitches like the split-finger put more stress on the arm when repeatedly thrown? Other reasons?

 

Link for list of leaders in IP year-by-year

[texascub]

I think it's a combination of players throwing harder than ever, and pitches like the curve, slider, and other pitches that put so much stress on the elbow and shoulder.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Significantly better hitters that require more exertion to get out.

[cheapseats]

Significantly better hitters that require more exertion to get out.

 

What he said.

 

Plus, it's not innings that are the problem, it's number of pitches per appearance.

 

Number of pitches doesn't hurt anyone; number of pitches thrown while fatigued is the problem - these are the pitches for which the pitcher alters his mechanics to get the ball to the plate, and these are the pitches that can cause injury.

 

A guy at BP did a nice three-part series on this in 2002.

 

His research showed four-man rotations actually had slightly fewer injuries than five-man rotations. The difference was so small that it's probably negligible, but the point is that four-man rotations don't put pitchers at additional risk for injury.

 

In a four-man rotation, it would be very important to limit pitches, but a 4-man rotation does give the potential for many more innings without a greater probability of injury.

 

So, again, to sum it up: it's not the innings, it's not the number of pitches, it's the number of pitches thrown while fatigued.

[CubsInNC]

 

So, again, to sum it up: it's not the innings, it's not the number of pitches, it's the number of pitches thrown while fatigued.

 

 

So would it be fair to say that conditioning is part of the equation? To someone like Livan or Z in todays day and age, getting to 130pitches inclues fewer pitches while fatigued than say, Sean Marshall getting there? So to a small extent, due to constant (ab)use back in the day, the pitchers arms might have been more inline with frequent re-use and high pitch numbers?

[cheapseats]

 

 

So would it be fair to say that conditioning is part of the equation? To someone like Livan or Z in todays day and age, getting to 130pitches inclues fewer pitches while fatigued than say, Sean Marshall getting there? So to a small extent, due to constant (ab)use back in the day, the pitchers arms might have been more inline with frequent re-use and high pitch numbers?

 

Absolutely conditioning is part of the equation. Guys like Livan Hernandez, Zambrano, and Sabathia appear to be outliers, though.

 

I can't agree with the last sentence, though. Pitching while fatigued is never a wise thing. As in your example, it may (and does) take Z more pitches to get to that point than Marshall, but once he is there, he should be removed. There have been several games this year when Baker has allowed Z to continue to pitch when he clearly had lost his mechanics and was laboring to get the ball over the plate. That's just foolish.

 

Significantly better hitters that require more exertion to get out.

 

The facts back this up. Hitters (except those managed by Dusty Baker, who's still living in the 60's), are seeing more pitches per plate appearance, and, on average, more hitters are receiving plate appearances per inning than in the past.

 

While pitchers might have thrown more innings in the past, they were generally throwing fewer pitches per inning (and per outing, perhaps).

[CubsInNC]

I can't agree with the last sentence, though. Pitching while fatigued is never a wise thing. As in your example, it may (and does) take Z more pitches to get to that point than Marshall, but once he is there, he should be removed. There have been several games this year when Baker has allowed Z to continue to pitch when he clearly had lost his mechanics and was laboring to get the ball over the plate. That's just foolish.

 

 

While pitchers might have thrown more innings in the past, they were generally throwing fewer pitches per inning (and per outing, perhaps).

 

I wasn't trying to indicate that the use or abuse was justified, but more an explanation for the conditioning and bounce-back of arms then. Today we have better ideas on strength and conditioning exercises, nutrition and supplements that it seems really difficult to assume that people were more conditioned in the early to mid 1900s than today.

 

I tend to agree that pitchers likely threw fewer pitches per inning and thus outing, but that is speculation on my part. I look at the WHIP of some of the pitchers back then, as well as the batters-per inning then versus today, and it's really about the same as today. Neither are perfect indicators of pitches per outing/inning, but are contributory factors.

 

As for speed of pitches, I don't know that there is any difference either. While back in the early days there weren't radar guns to measure pitch speed, there are the old-time stories of pitchers that could really light up the ball.

[baseball7897]

I think pitchers baby their arm's these days. Not throwing enough on the side between their starts. Back in the day, pitcher's were always throwing. Thats one reason why they could throw 300 innings a year. Their arm's could handle it, because they were always increasing their arm strength.

 

Thowing across your body can lead to shoulder/elbow injuries. Kerry Wood experiences this problem. Another guy who probably could have a shoulder problem will be Jered Weaver.

[TB_11]

I just stumbled upon this article at THT about pitch counts. Some of the conclusions:

 

- The workloads handled by top pitchers in the 1970s (well over 5,000 pitches) were not typical of the second half of the 20th century. Nevertheless, there doesn't seem to have been a particularly high rate of arm trouble suffered by the very hardest-worked pitchers even of the 1970s.

 

- The workloads handed by top pitchers since 1989 (practically never exceeding 4,200 pitches) is also not typical. Nor does there seem to be a particularly low rate of arm trouble among modern aces.

 

- The norm for the entire 1950-2000 era is somewhere around 4,300-4,700 pitches, or about 10% above the limit that modern aces are held to.

 

And later, this hypothesis is considered:

I suspect the truth has much more to do with this: in every era, pitchers handle the workload for which they have been conditioned. Modern pitchers haven't been trained and developed to throw as many pitches as earlier pitchers did, and so they don't. Human physiology didn't suddenly change in the late 1980s, nor has the challenge of pitching suddenly become that much more demanding than ever before.

[rocket]

Maybe in those days pitchers had to throw that much, and the medical technology wasn't even close to what it is today, so the ones that got hurt were done before they barely started.

 

Now, it isn't really entirely necessary to pitch that much, so the ones that got "weeded" out before are still around.

[swordsman]

Building on the idea that some guys get fatigued sooner than others...could the fact that the league is larger now (meaning more guys in the league so likely a greater percentage who are not "horses") means that more pitchers need the attention than before? In other words there are more pitchers who are less inately fatigue-proof than back in the day so there is more attention put on it?

[mul21]

Building on the idea that some guys get fatigued sooner than others...could the fact that the league is larger now (meaning more guys in the league so likely a greater percentage who are not "horses") means that more pitchers need the attention than before? In other words there are more pitchers who are less inately fatigue-proof than back in the day so there is more attention put on it?

 

This was exactly what crossed my mind. There were what 24 or so teams in the mid 1970s? Pitchers going in a 4 man rotation means you need 96 regular starting pitchers, plus maybe one extra guy per team for spot starts or in case of injury. Now you have 30 teams going with 5 man rotations plus the extra guy (sometime 2) to make the spot starts and fill in the rotation. You go from needing about 120 guys in 1975 to needing about 180 to fill starting rotations now.

[soccer10k]

Maybe in those days pitchers had to throw that much, and the medical technology wasn't even close to what it is today, so the ones that got hurt were done before they barely started.

 

Now, it isn't really entirely necessary to pitch that much, so the ones that got "weeded" out before are still around.

 

Factor in that there were less pitchers in the big leagues becuase there were less teams in the big leagues as well.

[goonys evil twin]

And later, this hypothesis is considered:

Human physiology didn't suddenly change in the late 1980s, nor has the challenge of pitching suddenly become that much more demanding than ever before.

 

I find that last comment rather unlikely. You're telling me it's not harder to pitch to the modern lineup, where anybody can take you deep at any moment, compared to some of those lineups filled with scrawny and/or paunchy smokers and drinkers who lived off the slap single?

[Jon]

And later, this hypothesis is considered:

Human physiology didn't suddenly change in the late 1980s, nor has the challenge of pitching suddenly become that much more demanding than ever before.

 

I find that last comment rather unlikely. You're telling me it's not harder to pitch to the modern lineup, where anybody can take you deep at any moment, compared to some of those lineups filled with scrawny and/or paunchy smokers and drinkers who lived off the slap single?

Hey, I know that team!

[RonnieWooWooSanto]

And later, this hypothesis is considered:

Human physiology didn't suddenly change in the late 1980s, nor has the challenge of pitching suddenly become that much more demanding than ever before.

 

I find that last comment rather unlikely. You're telling me it's not harder to pitch to the modern lineup, where anybody can take you deep at any moment, compared to some of those lineups filled with scrawny and/or paunchy smokers and drinkers who lived off the slap single?

Hey, I know that team!

 

Dang you Juan Pierre! Sober up already!