Would you rather have Izturis or Cedeno??

[Laura]

 

Your post got me interested to see exactly what our financial obligations were for next year and I found something that I find very interesting. Going by the contracts on the site you provided, I found that we likely can afford some big time acquisitions in the offseason even after the Izturis trade. These salary calculations may not be 100% correct but I believe they are nearly complete.

 

That's great! The transactions forum will start heating up before long with more budget posts.

 

I made a few comments below and just highlighted them in blue font.

 

Lineup

RF- Jones 5m

CF-

LF-

3B-Aramis 11m This may change due to renegotiation

2B-

SS-Izturis 4.5m

1B-Lee 13m

C-Barrett 4m May be $4.5M? Not really significant

Bench

Murton 330k

Perez 2.5m

Blanco 1.5 m Not under contract in '07

Pagan 327k

Theriot 300k

Starting Pitchers

Z 7.5m Likely higher - Cy Zambrano - & hopefully multi-year

Prior 4m

Marshall 300k

Marmol 300k

Guz/Hill/etc 300k

Relievers

Wuertz 355k

Eyre 3.5m

Howry 4m

Dempster 5m

Wood 2m

Ohman 610k

Rusch 2m

 

This comes to a total of 72.5m with holes at CF, LF, and 2B still left to fill.

 

As you point out below, that wouldn't cover a FA starting pitcher (which is near & dear to some hearts).

 

Dusty would weep over the lack of bench veterans (but at least Neifi will still be here). Not much power unless Murton steps up his power game (and gets enough playing time to do so).

 

I projected what I thought was likely to cost us to bring in big acquisitions at those spots and I think I'm fairly accurate on these.

 

CF- Pierre 6m

LF- Carlos Lee 12m

2B- Soriano 12m

 

For a total of 30m, bringing our overall salary total for 2007 up to 102.5m. This is higher than our current payroll and would demand a 3 or 4 million increase in max payroll but I think the Tribune would consent if we could pull in these guys. If we wanted, we could also go cheaper at second and sign a veteran pitcher (Zito, etc) also. If anybody finds any discrepancies let me know but as far as I can tell and project this seems pretty accurate.

 

I don't have time to try to speculate on what any of those guys will wind up with tpday. I do think that's cutting the envelope pretty close and does include (as you note) a minor increase in payroll. It will be great if the Trib raises payroll a notch, given the poor results they've received over the past couple years ... but if the revenues are there, it can be justified.

 

I also wasn't saying that no positive upgrades were possible due to the Izturis trade. I was pointing that committing that money over 2 years to Izturis has a real impact on how much money you can spend to fill other needs. Given his likely offensive production (whether you think his production will stay flat, match '04 or improve), you also have to figure out how to get the most offensive bang for the buck at the other positions.

[1908]

Pierre I think might take a smaller raise on a one year deal hoping to net a huge contract after a big year.

There are smaller raises and then there's $25K. I think he'll get a 4/$32M offer from at least one team out there. I hope it's not the Cubs.

[Backtobanks]

I could easily see Soriano getting 5/75 and Lee getting 5/70.

 

I don't think either one of them will get that much money or that many years. Soriano might get a 4 year deal, but I think Lee will probably get 3 years.

[goonys evil twin]

I could easily see Soriano getting 5/75 and Lee getting 5/70.

 

I don't think either one of them will get that much money or that many years. Soriano might get a 4 year deal, but I think Lee will probably get 3 years.

 

Lee is going to get 4 easily, and I'd be surprised if Soriano was under 5, unless it's for a higher than expected salary. Not many 30 year olds with the hyep of these guys are signing for less than 3 years, unless they have injury issues. They will be 2 of the 4 biggest signing next offseason and the market has proven capable of absorbing at least that many big, longterm deals during the winter.

[badgercub]

I could easily see Soriano getting 5/75 and Lee getting 5/70.

 

I don't think either one of them will get that much money or that many years. Soriano might get a 4 year deal, but I think Lee will probably get 3 years.

 

I believe that initial indication are Carlos Lee will be seeking 5 and 75, or an ave. of 15 million a year (He already turned down 4/48 from the Brewers). And in a year with not much else out there by way of free agency I think he may get it. With the Nationals not trading Soriano I have a feeling they will do everything in their power to get him signed before free agency which could drive Lee's value even higher.

[dew1679666265]

I also wasn't saying that no positive upgrades were possible due to the Izturis trade. I was pointing that committing that money over 2 years to Izturis has a real impact on how much money you can spend to fill other needs. Given his likely offensive production (whether you think his production will stay flat, match '04 or improve), you also have to figure out how to get the most offensive bang for the buck at the other positions.

 

I don't disagree that Aramis may desire more in order to not opt out but if he signed a long term deal backloaded (though you can debate the positives behind backloading) then his first year would be close to the same as is currently listed. I included Blanco simply because I suspect we'll go after him or a similar type defensive backup for Barrett, may pay less money though. I figured Z would get more money but I'm not sure what kind of money he'll demand, though again if we backload (which may be a good idea with him) it may not be more than a couple million. The FA pitcher would be fine but it would mean less emphasis on the offense and I figured that we'd focus more on what the farm cannot readily produce, ML ready hitters. And as far as the bench, I doubt Dusty's here next year so the lack of vets may not be a problem and there is a bit of a lack of power, I hadn't noticed that. I think the Trib will raise payroll, that's one of the positives MacPhail has brought is that he's opened the pocketbooks some. Finally, sorry if I implied that you didn't think we could upgrade, I just was surprised myself at how much potential we have, payroll wise, to upgrade. I also think that Izturis will improve his numbers though how much I'm not sure.

[dew1679666265]

Pierre I think might take a smaller raise on a one year deal hoping to net a huge contract after a big year.

There are smaller raises and then there's $25K. I think he'll get a 4/$32M offer from at least one team out there. I hope it's not the Cubs.

 

If somebody offers 4/$32m then I hope the Cubs wish him the best and look elsewhere. I like Pierre but before we give him a bigtime deal, I want to make sure that he can continue to produce like he has since June, thus the hope for a 1 year $6-8m deal. It may be that he chooses that route in order to garner perhaps a bigger deal possibly closer to $10m if he can have a big year next year.

[NCCubFan]

Wasn't it because of Nomar's Achilles injury that the Cubs picked up Neifi Perez off waivers?

I think that was largely it. They already had picked up Rey Ordonez and Damian Jackson from the scrap heap and threw them back out again earlier that year.