Izturis...a comparison

[Ding Dong Johnson]

It cemets the bottom of our order as the worst in MLB on a team that is already terrible offensively.

 

Bottom of the order? Cesar is hitting second, dude. All hail Cesar!

 

 

Haha. When they see him hit 2nd this year, they'll have to reconsider.

 

They saw Neifi do it a lot and don't seem to have any second thoughts.

 

He did last night, and we only lost by 11.

[badger1679666666]

Well in good news, we'll be SO bad the rest of this year, especially losing Walker, that no way Dusty can get extended. We'll be EVEN WORSE next year so Hendry will lose HIS job, and 2008 is looking up!

[cubbyvirus00]

Mark my words when I say that Hendry is going to land a couple big FA's this offseason. One of them will be a pitcher...and I think it'll be Zito. He's going to boost the pitching staff for sure, and then he'll add an outfielder.

[goonys evil twin]

Mark my words when I say that Hendry is going to land a couple big FA's this offseason. One of them will be a pitcher...and I think it'll be Zito. He's going to boost the pitching staff for sure, and then he'll add an outfielder.

 

Okay, your words have been marked.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Mark my words (and kent, I hope I'm wrong) but with Hendry as GM, the Cubs won't sniff a playoff spot.

[Fanzones trumpet]

Interesting stuff. He walked 14 times as a 22-year-old and 43 two-years-later. That's marked improvement and a sign that a young player might have been figuring it out, at least to some degree.

 

He also had 260 more plate appearances.

 

details details details.

 

 

He had a .311 OBP in the minors, taking just 113 walks in well over 2200 at bats. He's taken just 116 walks in over 2300 major league at bats. Corey Patterson took 107 walks in less than 1400 minor league at bats, and 126 in 2500 career at bats.

 

There is no marked improvement in Izturis's patience. He's always been worthless at the plate and likely always will be.

 

If there's been no marked improvement in his patience, then why did his walks improve from 14 in his first full (age 22) season to 45 in his last full (age 24) season?

[jjgman21]

I do have a sliver of hope considering he was the best shortstop in the NL the first half of 2005. I thought he was about to break out, but then there was the injury, which pretty much puts him back to being pathetic in my eyes.

 

at this point, I don't see him being much better offensively than Cedeno, so I'd rather spend his money on a second baseman who is mediocre defensively but has some offensive skills, which we already have two of in the minor leagues.

 

defense up the middle is important, but not at the expense of being pathetic offensively.

[goonys evil twin]

Interesting stuff. He walked 14 times as a 22-year-old and 43 two-years-later. That's marked improvement and a sign that a young player might have been figuring it out, at least to some degree.

 

He also had 260 more plate appearances.

 

 

If there's been no marked improvement in his patience, then why did his walks improve from 14 in his first full (age 22) season to 45 in his last full (age 24) season?

 

Because of the bolded part.

[Fanzones trumpet]

Interesting stuff. He walked 14 times as a 22-year-old and 43 two-years-later. That's marked improvement and a sign that a young player might have been figuring it out, at least to some degree.

 

He also had 260 more plate appearances.

 

 

If there's been no marked improvement in his patience, then why did his walks improve from 14 in his first full (age 22) season to 45 in his last full (age 24) season?

 

Because of the bolded part.

 

Fair enough, but his walk rate doubled during that time.

[goonys evil twin]

Interesting stuff. He walked 14 times as a 22-year-old and 43 two-years-later. That's marked improvement and a sign that a young player might have been figuring it out, at least to some degree.

 

He also had 260 more plate appearances.

 

 

If there's been no marked improvement in his patience, then why did his walks improve from 14 in his first full (age 22) season to 45 in his last full (age 24) season?

 

Because of the bolded part.

 

Fair enough, but his walk rate doubled during that time.

 

From non-existent to very low.

[Hosak8]

Actually, Tiger......I think a better comparasion would be Omar Vizquel.

 

Omar Vizquel is Izturis's #1 comp in PECOTA, with a score of 53, which means at his age, he looks a lot like Vizquel did at the same age.

 

Izturis's #2 comp is Cristian Guzman, though, with the same score of 53.

 

I hope he progresses like Vizquel in the near future, but I think it's more likely we see the second coming of Cristian Guzman.

 

I wonder how that would compare with Ozzie Smith? Izturis has comparable (mostly better) numbers to (than) Ozzie over his first six seasons. Aside from stolen bases, Izturis stacks up well with one of the greats at SS.

[Jon]

Actually, Tiger......I think a better comparasion would be Omar Vizquel.

 

Omar Vizquel is Izturis's #1 comp in PECOTA, with a score of 53, which means at his age, he looks a lot like Vizquel did at the same age.

 

Izturis's #2 comp is Cristian Guzman, though, with the same score of 53.

 

I hope he progresses like Vizquel in the near future, but I think it's more likely we see the second coming of Cristian Guzman.

 

I wonder how that would compare with Ozzie Smith? Izturis has comparable (mostly better) numbers to (than) Ozzie over his first six seasons. Aside from stolen bases, Izturis stacks up well with one of the greats at SS.

Cesar's career 69 OPS+ is considerably worse than Ozzie's 87.

[Caryatid]

Actually, Tiger......I think a better comparasion would be Omar Vizquel.

 

Omar Vizquel is Izturis's #1 comp in PECOTA, with a score of 53, which means at his age, he looks a lot like Vizquel did at the same age.

 

Izturis's #2 comp is Cristian Guzman, though, with the same score of 53.

 

I hope he progresses like Vizquel in the near future, but I think it's more likely we see the second coming of Cristian Guzman.

 

I wonder how that would compare with Ozzie Smith? Izturis has comparable (mostly better) numbers to (than) Ozzie over his first six seasons. Aside from stolen bases, Izturis stacks up well with one of the greats at SS.

 

 

This caused me to look at Ozzie Smith's career numbers: what in God's name is he doing in the Hall of Fame? He's just about an average player. I didn't realize backflips were so integral to the voting process.

[Jon]

Actually, Tiger......I think a better comparasion would be Omar Vizquel.

 

Omar Vizquel is Izturis's #1 comp in PECOTA, with a score of 53, which means at his age, he looks a lot like Vizquel did at the same age.

 

Izturis's #2 comp is Cristian Guzman, though, with the same score of 53.

 

I hope he progresses like Vizquel in the near future, but I think it's more likely we see the second coming of Cristian Guzman.

 

I wonder how that would compare with Ozzie Smith? Izturis has comparable (mostly better) numbers to (than) Ozzie over his first six seasons. Aside from stolen bases, Izturis stacks up well with one of the greats at SS.

 

 

This caused me to look at Ozzie Smith's career numbers: what in God's name is he doing in the Hall of Fame? He's just about an average player. I didn't realize backflips were so integral to the voting process.

First ballot! But it's not just backflips. If you can make great plays and be nice to the media, suckage with the bat will be overlooked by the media.

[Hosak8]

Actually, Tiger......I think a better comparasion would be Omar Vizquel.

 

Omar Vizquel is Izturis's #1 comp in PECOTA, with a score of 53, which means at his age, he looks a lot like Vizquel did at the same age.

 

Izturis's #2 comp is Cristian Guzman, though, with the same score of 53.

 

I hope he progresses like Vizquel in the near future, but I think it's more likely we see the second coming of Cristian Guzman.

 

I wonder how that would compare with Ozzie Smith? Izturis has comparable (mostly better) numbers to (than) Ozzie over his first six seasons. Aside from stolen bases, Izturis stacks up well with one of the greats at SS.

Cesar's career 69 OPS+ is considerably worse than Ozzie's 87.

 

AHEM... I said FIRST SIX YEARS. You cannot compare a career to a player who hasn't entered their prime yet.... that's not even close to fair. FIRST SIX YEARS... Izturis does compare.

[ChiCubsFan]

I'm going to preface this by saying that I like the Cubs. I want them to do well, and I'm looking for ways that things might turn out well for them. I'm not too excited about the Izturis trade, but I want it to work out okay. So, in a search for rationalization of this move, I noticed a coincidence.

 

Many people were not happy the last time the Cubs acquired a 26 year old player who had a near .290 career OBP in roughly 2000 major league at bats. That 26 year old didn't have a great minor league career to go off of, and like this situation he was taking the place of the incumbent who was serviceable but not earth shattering. If you haven't figured it out by now, I'm comparing him to Michael Barrett. There are some differences between the two, Barrett having the better career major and minor league numbers, and Izturis being quite a bit younger when traveling through those levels. Barrett was a man caught between C and 3B, Izturis is a fine defender at SS.

 

Now, and I want this to be inescapably clear, I don't think it's very likely Izturis has a breakout of Barrett's proportions. What I am saying is that players have the best years of their careers during their prime, which Izturis is going to be entering. Like Barrett, Izturis was highly regarded at one point, he wouldn't be exceeding his potential if he were an okay offensive SS. Izturis in previous seasons has been very unlucky with batted balls, hitting a lot of line drives and possessing good speed yet having a very low BABIP, especially for his LD%.

 

What I'm getting at is that maybe Izturis won't be the nightmare we are seeing at this moment. Don't confuse this for excusing Hendry though. This trade is horrible on a number of fronts. It shows a staggering lack of identification of the team's needs, lack of value placed in certain qualities and overvalue of others, and a mismanagement of the contracts involved. However, just because he made a terrible deal doesn't mean he can't get lucky, or correctly identify Izturis as better than the sum of his career to date.

 

Great post. Your optimism, while still being realistic, is really refreshing. Thank you.

[Caryatid]

Actually, Tiger......I think a better comparasion would be Omar Vizquel.

 

Omar Vizquel is Izturis's #1 comp in PECOTA, with a score of 53, which means at his age, he looks a lot like Vizquel did at the same age.

 

Izturis's #2 comp is Cristian Guzman, though, with the same score of 53.

 

I hope he progresses like Vizquel in the near future, but I think it's more likely we see the second coming of Cristian Guzman.

 

I wonder how that would compare with Ozzie Smith? Izturis has comparable (mostly better) numbers to (than) Ozzie over his first six seasons. Aside from stolen bases, Izturis stacks up well with one of the greats at SS.

Cesar's career 69 OPS+ is considerably worse than Ozzie's 87.

 

AHEM... I said FIRST SIX YEARS. You cannot compare a career to a player who hasn't entered their prime yet.... that's not even close to fair. FIRST SIX YEARS... Izturis does compare.

 

Calling Ozzie Smith "one of the greats of all time" is a bit of a stretch, though.

[Jon]

Actually, Tiger......I think a better comparasion would be Omar Vizquel.

 

Omar Vizquel is Izturis's #1 comp in PECOTA, with a score of 53, which means at his age, he looks a lot like Vizquel did at the same age.

 

Izturis's #2 comp is Cristian Guzman, though, with the same score of 53.

 

I hope he progresses like Vizquel in the near future, but I think it's more likely we see the second coming of Cristian Guzman.

 

I wonder how that would compare with Ozzie Smith? Izturis has comparable (mostly better) numbers to (than) Ozzie over his first six seasons. Aside from stolen bases, Izturis stacks up well with one of the greats at SS.

Cesar's career 69 OPS+ is considerably worse than Ozzie's 87.

 

AHEM... I said FIRST SIX YEARS. You cannot compare a career to a player who hasn't entered their prime yet.... that's not even close to fair. FIRST SIX YEARS... Izturis does compare.

Cesar has shown an ability to get near that level only once in his career so far (88). Ozzie at least broke 80 three times in those first six seasons.

 

But the point is that being comparable offensively to Ozzie isn't a good thing, especially in those first six seasons of his.

[A New Era]

Very few players do a career turn around like Omar Vizquel. Vizquel also went to an organization that valued OBP. I dont think Isturis is all of a sudden going to come to the Cubs and be taught the value of getting on base and the best way to do it. So I am more inclined to think that Christian Guzman is what we can expect.

 

Not if we miraculously get a new coaching staff next year that just happens to value OBP and teaches it inspite of what Hendry thinks. .

[Soul]

It cemets the bottom of our order as the worst in MLB on a team that is already terrible offensively.

 

Bottom of the order? Cesar is hitting second, dude. All hail Cesar!

 

 

Haha. When they see him hit 2nd this year, they'll have to reconsider.

 

They saw Neifi do it a lot and don't seem to have any second thoughts.

 

He did last night, and we only lost by 11.

 

We better not be looking at an '07 of .290 OBP from the #2 spot.

 

I'm starting to run out of furniture to throw; this is getting too expensive 8)

[hawkeyecub]

I'm going to preface this by saying that I like the Cubs. I want them to do well, and I'm looking for ways that things might turn out well for them. I'm not too excited about the Izturis trade, but I want it to work out okay. So, in a search for rationalization of this move, I noticed a coincidence.

 

Many people were not happy the last time the Cubs acquired a 26 year old player who had a near .290 career OBP in roughly 2000 major league at bats. That 26 year old didn't have a great minor league career to go off of, and like this situation he was taking the place of the incumbent who was serviceable but not earth shattering. If you haven't figured it out by now, I'm comparing him to Michael Barrett. There are some differences between the two, Barrett having the better career major and minor league numbers, and Izturis being quite a bit younger when traveling through those levels. Barrett was a man caught between C and 3B, Izturis is a fine defender at SS.

 

Now, and I want this to be inescapably clear, I don't think it's very likely Izturis has a breakout of Barrett's proportions. What I am saying is that players have the best years of their careers during their prime, which Izturis is going to be entering. Like Barrett, Izturis was highly regarded at one point, he wouldn't be exceeding his potential if he were an okay offensive SS. Izturis in previous seasons has been very unlucky with batted balls, hitting a lot of line drives and possessing good speed yet having a very low BABIP, especially for his LD%.

 

What I'm getting at is that maybe Izturis won't be the nightmare we are seeing at this moment. Don't confuse this for excusing Hendry though. This trade is horrible on a number of fronts. It shows a staggering lack of identification of the team's needs, lack of value placed in certain qualities and overvalue of others, and a mismanagement of the contracts involved. However, just because he made a terrible deal doesn't mean he can't get lucky, or correctly identify Izturis as better than the sum of his career to date.

 

I posted similar thoughts yesterday. As much as I dislike the deal and think it was a very poor decision, there are a few things that could mean light at the end of the tunnel. We just have to hope the odds of that happening are higher than they appear.

The fact that he's 26 and will be in a contract year next season is good news. That's the kind of scenario that can sometimes spark a breakout year (or he might stay the same). Also scouts apparently felt his bat was continuing to improve from '04 into '05 until he had those injuries.

[snoodmonger]

Interesting stuff. He walked 14 times as a 22-year-old and 43 two-years-later. That's marked improvement and a sign that a young player might have been figuring it out, at least to some degree.

 

He also had 260 more plate appearances.

 

 

If there's been no marked improvement in his patience, then why did his walks improve from 14 in his first full (age 22) season to 45 in his last full (age 24) season?

 

Because of the bolded part.

 

In 50% more ABs, his BBs improved almost 400%. So it's not just the same rate of patience extended through more PAs, it's increased patience. Thus his OBP went up. Hate Izturis all you want. I'm not sayig he's good. But you can't deny he got progressively more patient until injured.

[C.C.]

He had a good start to his Cub career last night. I was at the game and the crowd went crazy when he got that hit. Great night for baseball last night. Izzy played a solid game, Rich Hill had the breakout game we all have been waiting for, and Cubs won a game!