Will anyone on the coach. staff acknowledge the 8 BB's today

[CubColtPacer]

There are a few things worth noting about that argument...

 

For one, AVG is a streaky measure and indicator of performance. Many people on this board are proponents of metrics like BABIP because, frankly, accumulating a high average oftentimes requires luck. Granted, some guys are able to put up those numbers thanks to line drives and hard hit balls. However, frankly speaking, it's pretty easy for hitters to have fluctuations in their batting averages from season to season.

 

That said, there is something to be said for the importance of walks beyond not making outs. A player's IsoD is a very good indicator of how selective and patient he is at the plate. One of the problems with this team is the fact that most of these guys have little to no ability when it comes to judging balls at the plate. A guy who draws a lot of walks is likely a very selective and smart hitter at the plate, you know?

 

First, I want to thank you for your respectful disageement. It was very much appreciated. To answer the discussion you brought up, yes, I think average is sometimes a tricky indicator when only given one season to evaluate. I always had the scenario in my head of two free agents that a team is looking at. They likely have at least 3-4 years of experience, so average swings can much more likely be charted. Also, the swings in average are likely to be evened out over a full team. With that, a person who has a .275 career average and a .360 OBP is more valuable to me than a person with a .261 average and .360 OBP because of all the extra things that those hits can cause (other variables are the same on the two hitters). I would even argue that one should take a slightly less OBP to obtain a higher career average, but I am much less confident in that argument because it is impossible to prove where the line should be.

I certainly want selective and smart hitters. However, if I can find a person who can simply hit without being selective or smart, and do it well, I value that more. There are many more examples of hitters who were not patient at the beginning of their career who became more patient then examples of players who dramatically improved their averages after their second or third year of playing. If I can get a player who hits well, I think I have won 2/3 of the battle, and then have to only teach them to be more patient at the plate to get the other 1/3. It gives me only 1/3 of the equation to have a hitter like Mark Bellhorn who is very patient, draws many walks, but that has not translated into a spike in his average.

[goonys evil twin]

However, if I can find a person who can simply hit without being selective or smart, and do it well, I value that more.

 

Okay, sign Vlad Guerrero the next time he's a free agent.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

However, if I can find a person who can simply hit without being selective or smart, and do it well, I value that more.

 

Okay, sign Vlad Guerrero the next time he's a free agent.

 

And keep Nomar.

[series65cubsfan]

where is Randall Simon? :wink:

[CuseCubFan69]

where is Randall Simon? :wink:

 

Really...where is Simon?

[halplm]

I'm a big proponent of OBP=runs... and in almost every case I'll want to build a team around guys with high OBP wh are very selective in what they hit...

 

The thing that people like myself, and many others forget when talking about OBP vs. OPS vs AVG vs BB etc... is that different situation really do require different approaches to hitting.

 

Generally speaking, I think the closer to the top of the order, the more OBP matters, and the lower you are in the order, the more AVG matters.

 

Look at it this way.. The top two hitters, you want on base, period. OBP is their primary stat. You want them to see a ton of pitches and get on base any way they can. In fact, for the leadoff guy, walks might be even more important, because you really want him to see a lot of pitches... the number two guy, just needs to get on base.

 

The middle of the order... 3, 4, 5... you want OPS. You need them to hit for power and drive guys in. You still want them to be extremely selective, but not so much to get walks, but to get pitches in their favor that they can drive. Walks are fine if they're not seeing their pitchers, but many times, a guy on ahead of them who can steal, for instance... a walk isn't what you really want.

 

The bottom of the order, 6, 7 8... while I'm still big on OBP, as they'll be leading off innings themselves, I think AVG is pretty important... a LOT of times, you'll be wanting these guys just to put the ball IN PLAY... A guy that's only super selective, and draws a lot of walks... won't slap that ball outside into right field and score that essential run. You need guys on the team that can do that... Do they get on as much? No, but the pitcher's due up anyway, so they're less likely to score from first off a walk...

 

There is no one all powerful stat that you can max to make your team great (unless team wins counts ;) ), but that's what makes Baseball Great :)

 

It also helps, of course, if your manager knows how to fill out a lineup card...

[Outshined_One]

However, if I can find a person who can simply hit without being selective or smart, and do it well, I value that more.

 

Okay, sign Vlad Guerrero the next time he's a free agent.

 

Vlad's IsoD is actually pretty reasonable (.065), strangely enough. The man knows how to take a walk and has a good idea of the strike zone. The only other guys in the league I can think of who fits CCP's description is Jeff Francoeur and Ronny Cedeno...and neither is doing all that well. The other thing is, freakish IsoD guys like Mark Bellhorn, Adam Dunn, and Scott Hatteberg are pretty rare. The majority of guys in baseball fall between those two extremes.

 

The thing is, in order for a guy to make it to the majors and be successful, he has to have selectivity at the plate. Look at Ryan Harvey down in Daytona, who is struggling down there despite being one of the best five tool prospects in the system. Everyone complains about the Ks, which is part of the problem, but the lack of walks has been what kills him. The guy can't recognize and adjust to various pitches, so he often ends up swinging at ones he shouldn't. His average is in the toilet because he has almost no plate discipline to speak of. Guys who accumulate a respectable number of walks in the minors are the ones who tend to climb the ladder and flourish. It shows good pitch recognition skills, meaning they know when to swing and when to keep the bat on their shoulder.

 

A guy can't make it through the minor leagues if he isn't selective; better pitchers will shred him. I can't think of any guess hitters in baseball today who are worth a lick offensively.

 

The other problem worth noting is (and this is true especially in the majors) the vast majority of players tend to stick around their career IsoD and K/BB numbers. Very few guys have been able to change their approach radically enough while in the majors in order to get to that level (Sammy Sosa being one of them).

 

If you pick up a .300/.310 AVG/OBP guy thinking you're going to teach him how to take walks, odds are really good you will end up being disappointed. That would require overhauling his approach and making necessary adjustments to his mentality over the course of a season. Problem is, you have to keep drilling it into the guy's head and make it stick when you're attempting to make a playoff run and need the guy to be a successful contributor. He already has a number of habits and hitting philosophies in branded into his psyche...and now you're trying to remove them all and replace them with something else. It's possible, but it also would take a lot of work and entail plenty of failure and struggles on the player's behalf.

 

If the guy goes down the tubes trying to implement these new habits, odds are pretty good you'll be shown the door by the end of the season.

[CubColtPacer]

However, if I can find a person who can simply hit without being selective or smart, and do it well, I value that more.

 

Okay, sign Vlad Guerrero the next time he's a free agent.

 

Vlad's IsoD is actually pretty reasonable (.065), strangely enough. The man knows how to take a walk and has a good idea of the strike zone. The only other guys in the league I can think of who fits CCP's description is Jeff Francoeur and Ronny Cedeno...and neither is doing all that well. The other thing is, freakish IsoD guys like Mark Bellhorn, Adam Dunn, and Scott Hatteberg are pretty rare. The majority of guys in baseball fall between those two extremes.

 

The thing is, in order for a guy to make it to the majors and be successful, he has to have selectivity at the plate. Look at Ryan Harvey down in Daytona, who is struggling down there despite being one of the best five tool prospects in the system. Everyone complains about the Ks, which is part of the problem, but the lack of walks has been what kills him. The guy can't recognize and adjust to various pitches, so he often ends up swinging at ones he shouldn't. His average is in the toilet because he has almost no plate discipline to speak of. Guys who accumulate a respectable number of walks in the minors are the ones who tend to climb the ladder and flourish. It shows good pitch recognition skills, meaning they know when to swing and when to keep the bat on their shoulder.

 

A guy can't make it through the minor leagues if he isn't selective; better pitchers will shred him. I can't think of any guess hitters in baseball today who are worth a lick offensively.

 

The other problem worth noting is (and this is true especially in the majors) the vast majority of players tend to stick around their career IsoD and K/BB numbers. Very few guys have been able to change their approach radically enough while in the majors in order to get to that level (Sammy Sosa being one of them).

 

If you pick up a .300/.310 AVG/OBP guy thinking you're going to teach him how to take walks, odds are really good you will end up being disappointed. That would require overhauling his approach and making necessary adjustments to his mentality over the course of a season. Problem is, you have to keep drilling it into the guy's head and make it stick when you're attempting to make a playoff run and need the guy to be a successful contributor. He already has a number of habits and hitting philosophies in branded into his psyche...and now you're trying to remove them all and replace them with something else. It's possible, but it also would take a lot of work and entail plenty of failure and struggles on the player's behalf.

 

If the guy goes down the tubes trying to implement these new habits, odds are pretty good you'll be shown the door by the end of the season.

 

True, but it doesn't have to go to one of the extremes. I'm just saying that a .275 hitter with a .330 OBP is probably better for your ballclub than a .230 hitter with a .360 OBP, unless that hitter is in the 1 or 2 slot. Now, that's a close choice for me, and I don't know how far I would go, but you need those players to drive in the guys in the first two spots who are high OBP players. I agree with the poster that different slots need to have different functions, and that high OBP players are needed for the first 2 slots no matter how they do it while higher batting average players are needed after that. So I'm not saying that I don't want a player that doesn't walk, but rather that I'd like somebody who primarily hits well rather than primarily walks well. It doesn't nearly have to be as extreme as somebody who never walks like Cedeno.

[goonys evil twin]

True, but it doesn't have to go to one of the extremes. I'm just saying that a .275 hitter with a .330 OBP is probably better for your ballclub than a .230 hitter with a .360 OBP, unless that hitter is in the 1 or 2 slot. Now, that's a close choice for me, and I don't know how far I would go, but you need those players to drive in the guys in the first two spots who are high OBP players. I agree with the poster that different slots need to have different functions, and that high OBP players are needed for the first 2 slots no matter how they do it while higher batting average players are needed after that. So I'm not saying that I don't want a player that doesn't walk, but rather that I'd like somebody who primarily hits well rather than primarily walks well. It doesn't nearly have to be as extreme as somebody who never walks like Cedeno.

 

Unless that .330 OBP guy has a huge power advantage over the .360 OBP guy, there's no way he's better for your ballclub.

 

You can talk all you want about guys who hit instead of walk, but the fact is you need guys who get on base, no matter how they do it, and you'd preferably take the guys who both hit and walk. Taking a guy who hits a little more but walks a lot less, just does not make any sense whatsoever.

 

There aren't many players out there who primarily walk well, whatever that means. Guys either get on base or they don't. It's simple, you want the guys who get on base.

[wastra]

The Science Channel had a whole show on Sabermetrics last night...really cool.

 

They pretty much proved mathematically that the A#1 thing to look for in a hitter is whether they make a relative large number or small number of outs (hence, OBP).

 

Everything else is very secondary, as outs are the only finite controllable aspect of the game. Boiled down to a level that math idiots like me can understand, it's: The more batters you send to the plate without making 3 outs, the statistically higher percentage number of runs a team scores.

 

Stealing bases? not a major factor.

Sac bunts? bad idea.

High batting average/lower obp? fewer runs.

 

Really a neat show.

[mul21]

quote]

 

I'm not taking walks out of OBP. What I am doing is separating OBP into the two primary components: batting average, and walks. HBP and a couple other things figure in, but those things are too rare to truly make a significant difference. Now why does OBP correlate decently with runs? Is it because of the batting average part, or the walks? The stats clearly show that differences in batting average are the primary reason why some teams score more runs then others. An increase in walks do cause an increase in runs generally, but this link is much more fragile then differences in batting average. The evidence clearly shows that if you had to have a team that was in the top 10 team in batting average or the top 10 in walks, you would clearly take the top 10 in batting average. Of course, it would be even better to take one of the top 10 teams in OBP, because it takes the large effect of batting average and adds the small effect of walks. Do walks matter? Yes. However, you want the team with a .360 OBP and a .284 average rather then the same team with a .360 OBP and a .271 average. You are going to get many more runs out of the first team than the second team on average, even though the second team walks many more times on average.OPS has such a direct correlation with runs scored because it gives walks it's place while essentially double counting hits-because a hit both adds to your OBP, and also increases your slugging. So a hit is definitely worth a great deal more than a walk, and the OPS numbers show this.

 

Not necessarily true. If the team hitting .284 is slugging 30 points lower than the team with the .271 avg., they will probably score less runs, so that completely shoots your average argument down, while reinforcing your OPS argument. Bottom line is you want a high OPS, and how you get there is less important than the fact that you get there.

[CubColtPacer]

quote]

 

I'm not taking walks out of OBP. What I am doing is separating OBP into the two primary components: batting average, and walks. HBP and a couple other things figure in, but those things are too rare to truly make a significant difference. Now why does OBP correlate decently with runs? Is it because of the batting average part, or the walks? The stats clearly show that differences in batting average are the primary reason why some teams score more runs then others. An increase in walks do cause an increase in runs generally, but this link is much more fragile then differences in batting average. The evidence clearly shows that if you had to have a team that was in the top 10 team in batting average or the top 10 in walks, you would clearly take the top 10 in batting average. Of course, it would be even better to take one of the top 10 teams in OBP, because it takes the large effect of batting average and adds the small effect of walks. Do walks matter? Yes. However, you want the team with a .360 OBP and a .284 average rather then the same team with a .360 OBP and a .271 average. You are going to get many more runs out of the first team than the second team on average, even though the second team walks many more times on average.OPS has such a direct correlation with runs scored because it gives walks it's place while essentially double counting hits-because a hit both adds to your OBP, and also increases your slugging. So a hit is definitely worth a great deal more than a walk, and the OPS numbers show this.

 

Not necessarily true. If the team hitting .284 is slugging 30 points lower than the team with the .271 avg., they will probably score less runs, so that completely shoots your average argument down, while reinforcing your OPS argument. Bottom line is you want a high OPS, and how you get there is less important than the fact that you get there.

 

Sorry about that..I meant to say that if slugging and other stats were equal either way-sorry about the confusion there. You are right-any way you can get to a high OPS is great-it's just that hits get you there at least twice as fast due to both increasing OBP and slugging.

[CubColtPacer]

True, but it doesn't have to go to one of the extremes. I'm just saying that a .275 hitter with a .330 OBP is probably better for your ballclub than a .230 hitter with a .360 OBP, unless that hitter is in the 1 or 2 slot. Now, that's a close choice for me, and I don't know how far I would go, but you need those players to drive in the guys in the first two spots who are high OBP players. I agree with the poster that different slots need to have different functions, and that high OBP players are needed for the first 2 slots no matter how they do it while higher batting average players are needed after that. So I'm not saying that I don't want a player that doesn't walk, but rather that I'd like somebody who primarily hits well rather than primarily walks well. It doesn't nearly have to be as extreme as somebody who never walks like Cedeno.

 

Unless that .330 OBP guy has a huge power advantage over the .360 OBP guy, there's no way he's better for your ballclub.

 

You can talk all you want about guys who hit instead of walk, but the fact is you need guys who get on base, no matter how they do it, and you'd preferably take the guys who both hit and walk. Taking a guy who hits a little more but walks a lot less, just does not make any sense whatsoever.

 

There aren't many players out there who primarily walk well, whatever that means. Guys either get on base or they don't. It's simple, you want the guys who get on base.

 

Let me give you a closer example then, we have Morgan Ensberg and Matt Holliday of Colorado.

Ensberg is batting .237 with a .390 OBP

Holliday is batting .337 with a .387 OBP

Ensberg has 19 HR with 44 RBI's

Holliday has 16 HR with 57 RBI's

Who do you take? (disregarding things like park or position-just simple hitting and creating offense for a team)

Are these hitters even that close? Let me give you some other numbers-Holliday has a .587 slugging to Ensberg's .500 slugging. Therefore, Holliday's OPS is 84 points higher. Is this because he has more power? No, obviously not. It is no wonder that many of the middle of the order people who have high batting averages have high slugging numbers, power or not. They are hitting the ball into play, getting their slugging up using singles or doubles.

To use another example, this is why Freddy Sanchez has a much higher slugging percentage than Bobby Abreu. Abreu gets on base .50 more of the time, but Sanchez has the same .53 edge in slugging, even though he only has 5 home runs, while Abreu has 8. A person with a low average and high OBP will have to have a significant number of home runs to get even close in slugging to a person with a high average and even a much lower OBP, like Abreu and Sanchez. If you just wanted to get on base 1 base at a time, you'd have to have 4 of those in any inning for one run. These middle of the order type of guys need to put the ball into play, to let baserunners advance (2nd to home, 1st to 3rd) and to hit things like doubles to make it much easier to score, which increases your run production.

[NCCubFan]

where is Randall Simon? :wink:

 

Really...where is Simon?

He's in Milwaukee, hitting on the racing sausages. :lol:

 

Actually, he's playing for Tijuana in the Mexican League (I checked minorleaguebaseball.com to see if he was playing for anybody). He last played in the majors in 2004.

[stitchface]

True, but it doesn't have to go to one of the extremes. I'm just saying that a .275 hitter with a .330 OBP is probably better for your ballclub than a .230 hitter with a .360 OBP, unless that hitter is in the 1 or 2 slot. Now, that's a close choice for me, and I don't know how far I would go, but you need those players to drive in the guys in the first two spots who are high OBP players. I agree with the poster that different slots need to have different functions, and that high OBP players are needed for the first 2 slots no matter how they do it while higher batting average players are needed after that. So I'm not saying that I don't want a player that doesn't walk, but rather that I'd like somebody who primarily hits well rather than primarily walks well. It doesn't nearly have to be as extreme as somebody who never walks like Cedeno.

 

Unless that .330 OBP guy has a huge power advantage over the .360 OBP guy, there's no way he's better for your ballclub.

 

You can talk all you want about guys who hit instead of walk, but the fact is you need guys who get on base, no matter how they do it, and you'd preferably take the guys who both hit and walk. Taking a guy who hits a little more but walks a lot less, just does not make any sense whatsoever.

 

There aren't many players out there who primarily walk well, whatever that means. Guys either get on base or they don't. It's simple, you want the guys who get on base.

 

Let me give you a closer example then, we have Morgan Ensberg and Matt Holliday of Colorado.

Ensberg is batting .237 with a .390 OBP

Holliday is batting .337 with a .387 OBP

Ensberg has 19 HR with 44 RBI's

Holliday has 16 HR with 57 RBI's

Who do you take? (disregarding things like park or position-just simple hitting and creating offense for a team)

Are these hitters even that close? Let me give you some other numbers-Holliday has a .587 slugging to Ensberg's .500 slugging. Therefore, Holliday's OPS is 84 points higher. Is this because he has more power? No, obviously not. It is no wonder that many of the middle of the order people who have high batting averages have high slugging numbers, power or not. They are hitting the ball into play, getting their slugging up using singles or doubles.

To use another example, this is why Freddy Sanchez has a much higher slugging percentage than Bobby Abreu. Abreu gets on base .50 more of the time, but Sanchez has the same .53 edge in slugging, even though he only has 5 home runs, while Abreu has 8. A person with a low average and high OBP will have to have a significant number of home runs to get even close in slugging to a person with a high average and even a much lower OBP, like Abreu and Sanchez. If you just wanted to get on base 1 base at a time, you'd have to have 4 of those in any inning for one run. These middle of the order type of guys need to put the ball into play, to let baserunners advance (2nd to home, 1st to 3rd) and to hit things like doubles to make it much easier to score, which increases your run production.

 

depends whether those batting averages are sustainable. obviously holliday is better so far. but, the ability to be selective and take walks is more sustainable than the ability to hit for high batting average. the idea is not to take walks, but to hit for power by being selective and to not make outs. walks tend to come when you are selective and can hit for power. as such, walks are an indication of a player's selectivity. I tend to agree that walks as a solo metric aren't that indicative.

[stitchface]

slugging decreases your LOBs. the equation is simply:

R=PA-27-LOB

 

therefore the goal is to increase your plate appearances and decrease your LOBs.

[Tracer Bullet]

 

I'm not taking walks out of OBP. What I am doing is separating OBP into the two primary components: batting average, and walks. HBP and a couple other things figure in, but those things are too rare to truly make a significant difference. Now why does OBP correlate decently with runs? Is it because of the batting average part, or the walks? The stats clearly show that differences in batting average are the primary reason why some teams score more runs then others. An increase in walks do cause an increase in runs generally, but this link is much more fragile then differences in batting average. The evidence clearly shows that if you had to have a team that was in the top 10 team in batting average or the top 10 in walks, you would clearly take the top 10 in batting average. Of course, it would be even better to take one of the top 10 teams in OBP, because it takes the large effect of batting average and adds the small effect of walks. Do walks matter? Yes. However, you want the team with a .360 OBP and a .284 average rather then the same team with a .360 OBP and a .271 average. You are going to get many more runs out of the first team than the second team on average, even though the second team walks many more times on average.OPS has such a direct correlation with runs scored because it gives walks it's place while essentially double counting hits-because a hit both adds to your OBP, and also increases your slugging. So a hit is definitely worth a great deal more than a walk, and the OPS numbers show this.

 

Not necessarily true. If the team hitting .284 is slugging 30 points lower than the team with the .271 avg., they will probably score less runs, so that completely shoots your average argument down, while reinforcing your OPS argument. Bottom line is you want a high OPS, and how you get there is less important than the fact that you get there.

 

Sorry about that..I meant to say that if slugging and other stats were equal either way-sorry about the confusion there. You are right-any way you can get to a high OPS is great-it's just that hits get you there at least twice as fast due to both increasing OBP and slugging.

 

Actually, OBP and SLG aren't equal. If you have 2 guys with a .900 OPS, one with a .350 OBP and one with a .400 OBP, I'd take the latter. It's all about not making outs. Now, if the OBP is the same, yes, you'd want the guy with the higher SLG, but as between the two, OBP is more important.

[CubColtPacer]

 

I'm not taking walks out of OBP. What I am doing is separating OBP into the two primary components: batting average, and walks. HBP and a couple other things figure in, but those things are too rare to truly make a significant difference. Now why does OBP correlate decently with runs? Is it because of the batting average part, or the walks? The stats clearly show that differences in batting average are the primary reason why some teams score more runs then others. An increase in walks do cause an increase in runs generally, but this link is much more fragile then differences in batting average. The evidence clearly shows that if you had to have a team that was in the top 10 team in batting average or the top 10 in walks, you would clearly take the top 10 in batting average. Of course, it would be even better to take one of the top 10 teams in OBP, because it takes the large effect of batting average and adds the small effect of walks. Do walks matter? Yes. However, you want the team with a .360 OBP and a .284 average rather then the same team with a .360 OBP and a .271 average. You are going to get many more runs out of the first team than the second team on average, even though the second team walks many more times on average.OPS has such a direct correlation with runs scored because it gives walks it's place while essentially double counting hits-because a hit both adds to your OBP, and also increases your slugging. So a hit is definitely worth a great deal more than a walk, and the OPS numbers show this.

 

Not necessarily true. If the team hitting .284 is slugging 30 points lower than the team with the .271 avg., they will probably score less runs, so that completely shoots your average argument down, while reinforcing your OPS argument. Bottom line is you want a high OPS, and how you get there is less important than the fact that you get there.

 

Sorry about that..I meant to say that if slugging and other stats were equal either way-sorry about the confusion there. You are right-any way you can get to a high OPS is great-it's just that hits get you there at least twice as fast due to both increasing OBP and slugging.

 

Actually, OBP and SLG aren't equal. If you have 2 guys with a .900 OPS, one with a .350 OBP and one with a .400 OBP, I'd take the latter. It's all about not making outs. Now, if the OBP is the same, yes, you'd want the guy with the higher SLG, but as between the two, OBP is more important.

 

Ok, let me ask you and everyone this then. If that is true, let me give you 6 hitters here. They are all very similar in OPS (within 11 points of each other). Please rank the hitters that you would like to have in order (just for hitting). This would only be for the rest of the season, so for now the future doesn't matter. These will be ranked by me in alphebetical order.

 

Bobby Abreu

Adam Dunn

Todd Helton

Ryan Howard

Carlos Lee

Freddy Sanchez

[Tracer Bullet]

Actually, OBP and SLG aren't equal. If you have 2 guys with a .900 OPS, one with a .350 OBP and one with a .400 OBP, I'd take the latter. It's all about not making outs. Now, if the OBP is the same, yes, you'd want the guy with the higher SLG, but as between the two, OBP is more important.

 

Ok, let me ask you and everyone this then. If that is true, let me give you 6 hitters here. They are all very similar in OPS (within 11 points of each other). Please rank the hitters that you would like to have in order (just for hitting). This would only be for the rest of the season, so for now the future doesn't matter. These will be ranked by me in alphebetical order.

 

Bobby Abreu

Adam Dunn

Todd Helton

Ryan Howard

Carlos Lee

Freddy Sanchez

 

This will be fun!

 

I'd rank them:

 

Abreu, Dunn, Howard, C-Lee, Helton, Sanchez. But that's taking into account my beliefs about how these guys will finish the year.

 

Helton circa 2004, if he played all his games at Coors, would probably be the #1 pick but he's a shell of his former self this year. Why Helton so low? .530/.320/.480/.340 - his OBPs by month so far (rounded). If he can keep up a solid .425 - great, but if he's a .320, um, no thanks. CLee has only been close to these stats once before and I'm still not sure he can keep it up. I think Sanchez is in for a fall, but he's only 28 so maybe he's a late bloomer. If Sanchez can really keep it up, I'd take him after Abreu.

 

If you told me they'd put up these numbers on April 1 and asked me to pick, I'd go: Abreu, Helton, Sanchez, Dunn, Lee, Howard.

[CubColtPacer]

Actually, OBP and SLG aren't equal. If you have 2 guys with a .900 OPS, one with a .350 OBP and one with a .400 OBP, I'd take the latter. It's all about not making outs. Now, if the OBP is the same, yes, you'd want the guy with the higher SLG, but as between the two, OBP is more important.

 

Ok, let me ask you and everyone this then. If that is true, let me give you 6 hitters here. They are all very similar in OPS (within 11 points of each other). Please rank the hitters that you would like to have in order (just for hitting). This would only be for the rest of the season, so for now the future doesn't matter. These will be ranked by me in alphebetical order.

 

Bobby Abreu

Adam Dunn

Todd Helton

Ryan Howard

Carlos Lee

Freddy Sanchez

 

This will be fun!

 

I'd rank them:

 

Abreu, Dunn, Howard, C-Lee, Helton, Sanchez. But that's taking into account my beliefs about how these guys will finish the year.

 

Helton circa 2004, if he played all his games at Coors, would probably be the #1 pick but he's a shell of his former self this year. Why Helton so low? .530/.320/.480/.340 - his OBPs by month so far (rounded). If he can keep up a solid .425 - great, but if he's a .320, um, no thanks. CLee has only been close to these stats once before and I'm still not sure he can keep it up. I think Sanchez is in for a fall, but he's only 28 so maybe he's a late bloomer. If Sanchez can really keep it up, I'd take him after Abreu.

 

If you told me they'd put up these numbers on April 1 and asked me to pick, I'd go: Abreu, Helton, Sanchez, Dunn, Lee, Howard.

 

Well, I applaud you for sticking to your guns with your second list, as it follows OBP list exactly. I'll provide my list as well if I had to pick the player who's stats so far this season would be most benificial for my team.

1)Freddy Sanchez-He has the highest BA, the 3rd best OBP, and the 4th best slugging. I would love his combination here, and I think his first half is a perfect #2 hitter. If you have a leadoff hitter who gets on a lot, Sanchez drives him in with his 29 doubles so far, and advances him to 3rd a great deal with his .358 batting average. If the first hitter does not get on, his .396 OBP means he will get on in front of the cleanup guys, and also his great number of doubles mean that one hit behind him will knock him in instead of two.

2) Bobby Abreu-With his power falling off this first half, Abreu is still a wonderful #2 hitter. He has drilled lefties and been pretty good against right handers this season. At this spot, I cannot ignore his OBP along with his good speed that will allow him to score from first on a double from one of my power guys behind him.

3) Carlos Lee-Lee posts a slugging percentage that is almost 100 points ahead of Abreu's. He hits for a higher average and OBP than Ryan Howard while almost matching his slugging percentage. Lee looks to be a prodotypical #4 hitter.

4)Ryan Howard-His batting average and OBP are a bit low, but his slugging makes up for it. He is a great 4 or 5 hitter-he has the capability of driving in runs from anywhere. I'd put him at #4 for all the opportunities he will get to have a runner on first and 2 outs, which is a very likely situation.

5) Adam Dunn-the man without a spot. Dunn has a relatively high OBP coupled with a relatively high slugging. I question though how that translates into games because Dunn does not fit anywhere in the order. In the 2 spot, his home runs are wasted. In the 5 spot where he currently bats, many of Dunn's walks are wasted by the lower third of the order, and some of his walks may be due to teams wanting to go to that part of the order. Dunn does not drive in runs well, nor does he tend to move runners up, which makes him not a great fit for a #3 hitter. Doubles in front of him might as well be singles if he walks or homers, but strikeouts as a #3 hitter could ruin many an inning. Dunn seems best then as a #4 hitter, but it still makes many of his walks not very useful, and his relative lack of speed on the basepaths also makes walking less valuable still (but I'm not saying he shouldn't walk if he can-just that it takes more than most for him to score) Dunn does though possess a balance that many of the other players do not have.

6) Todd Helton- Helton is a singles hitter that is still a good #2 or #3 hitter, but his lack of power or extra base hits and his relative speed on the basepaths make him not quite as good as the other hitters on this list.

[badger1679666666]

The Science Channel had a whole show on Sabermetrics last night...really cool.

 

They pretty much proved mathematically that the A#1 thing to look for in a hitter is whether they make a relative large number or small number of outs (hence, OBP).

 

Everything else is very secondary, as outs are the only finite controllable aspect of the game. Boiled down to a level that math idiots like me can understand, it's: The more batters you send to the plate without making 3 outs, the statistically higher percentage number of runs a team scores.

 

Stealing bases? not a major factor.

Sac bunts? bad idea.

High batting average/lower obp? fewer runs.

 

Really a neat show.

 

Could you get a copy and send it anonymously to Hendry and Dustbrain?

[goonys evil twin]

The Science Channel had a whole show on Sabermetrics last night...really cool.

 

They pretty much proved mathematically that the A#1 thing to look for in a hitter is whether they make a relative large number or small number of outs (hence, OBP).

 

Everything else is very secondary, as outs are the only finite controllable aspect of the game. Boiled down to a level that math idiots like me can understand, it's: The more batters you send to the plate without making 3 outs, the statistically higher percentage number of runs a team scores.

 

Stealing bases? not a major factor.

Sac bunts? bad idea.

High batting average/lower obp? fewer runs.

 

Really a neat show.

 

Could you get a copy and send it anonymously to Hendry and Dustbrain?

 

You would have to label it "Top Secret: footage of the toolsiest player to ever aggressively swing the bat, do not allow other GMs a chance to see this 11-tool player." And then say it's from a scout of whatever team wins this year's world series.

[Tracer Bullet]

Well, I applaud you for sticking to your guns with your second list, as it follows OBP list exactly. I'll provide my list as well if I had to pick the player who's stats so far this season would be most benificial for my team.

1)Freddy Sanchez-He has the highest BA, the 3rd best OBP, and the 4th best slugging. I would love his combination here, and I think his first half is a perfect #2 hitter. If you have a leadoff hitter who gets on a lot, Sanchez drives him in with his 29 doubles so far, and advances him to 3rd a great deal with his .358 batting average. If the first hitter does not get on, his .396 OBP means he will get on in front of the cleanup guys, and also his great number of doubles mean that one hit behind him will knock him in instead of two.

2) Bobby Abreu-With his power falling off this first half, Abreu is still a wonderful #2 hitter. He has drilled lefties and been pretty good against right handers this season. At this spot, I cannot ignore his OBP along with his good speed that will allow him to score from first on a double from one of my power guys behind him.

3) Carlos Lee-Lee posts a slugging percentage that is almost 100 points ahead of Abreu's. He hits for a higher average and OBP than Ryan Howard while almost matching his slugging percentage. Lee looks to be a prodotypical #4 hitter.

4)Ryan Howard-His batting average and OBP are a bit low, but his slugging makes up for it. He is a great 4 or 5 hitter-he has the capability of driving in runs from anywhere. I'd put him at #4 for all the opportunities he will get to have a runner on first and 2 outs, which is a very likely situation.

5) Adam Dunn-the man without a spot. Dunn has a relatively high OBP coupled with a relatively high slugging. I question though how that translates into games because Dunn does not fit anywhere in the order. In the 2 spot, his home runs are wasted. In the 5 spot where he currently bats, many of Dunn's walks are wasted by the lower third of the order, and some of his walks may be due to teams wanting to go to that part of the order. Dunn does not drive in runs well, nor does he tend to move runners up, which makes him not a great fit for a #3 hitter. Doubles in front of him might as well be singles if he walks or homers, but strikeouts as a #3 hitter could ruin many an inning. Dunn seems best then as a #4 hitter, but it still makes many of his walks not very useful, and his relative lack of speed on the basepaths also makes walking less valuable still (but I'm not saying he shouldn't walk if he can-just that it takes more than most for him to score) Dunn does though possess a balance that many of the other players do not have.

6) Todd Helton- Helton is a singles hitter that is still a good #2 or #3 hitter, but his lack of power or extra base hits and his relative speed on the basepaths make him not quite as good as the other hitters on this list.

 

Well, you're drawing a lot of conclusions based on 3 months of baseball. Especially given the guys chosen (an aging Helton, Lee and Sanchez having career years, Abreu on the wrong side of 30, Dunn & Howard just hitting prime).

 

Lee is a career .850ish OPS guy. Solid, but nothing to write home about. Dunn had a down first half, but his career OBP near .390 and high SLG make him my #3 hitter. Lower than that wastes his ability to get on base (unless you're sitting on 2005 Derrek Lee or another power hitter w/ a .400 OBP). Helton hasn't shown much pop in the first half, but he gets on at a .425 clip overall. Again, the great swings from month to month are a concern, as are his declining #s. I don't think Sanchez keeps this up, though his ability to play almost anywhere makes him a great pick if you knew these #s were coming. Howard's a solid option and only 26, but of the guys listed, a .340 OBP ain't great, even w/ all that power. I'd certainly take him if 1B were open for us, but I'd hope the OBP goes up.

[CubColtPacer]

Well, I applaud you for sticking to your guns with your second list, as it follows OBP list exactly. I'll provide my list as well if I had to pick the player who's stats so far this season would be most benificial for my team.

1)Freddy Sanchez-He has the highest BA, the 3rd best OBP, and the 4th best slugging. I would love his combination here, and I think his first half is a perfect #2 hitter. If you have a leadoff hitter who gets on a lot, Sanchez drives him in with his 29 doubles so far, and advances him to 3rd a great deal with his .358 batting average. If the first hitter does not get on, his .396 OBP means he will get on in front of the cleanup guys, and also his great number of doubles mean that one hit behind him will knock him in instead of two.

2) Bobby Abreu-With his power falling off this first half, Abreu is still a wonderful #2 hitter. He has drilled lefties and been pretty good against right handers this season. At this spot, I cannot ignore his OBP along with his good speed that will allow him to score from first on a double from one of my power guys behind him.

3) Carlos Lee-Lee posts a slugging percentage that is almost 100 points ahead of Abreu's. He hits for a higher average and OBP than Ryan Howard while almost matching his slugging percentage. Lee looks to be a prodotypical #4 hitter.

4)Ryan Howard-His batting average and OBP are a bit low, but his slugging makes up for it. He is a great 4 or 5 hitter-he has the capability of driving in runs from anywhere. I'd put him at #4 for all the opportunities he will get to have a runner on first and 2 outs, which is a very likely situation.

5) Adam Dunn-the man without a spot. Dunn has a relatively high OBP coupled with a relatively high slugging. I question though how that translates into games because Dunn does not fit anywhere in the order. In the 2 spot, his home runs are wasted. In the 5 spot where he currently bats, many of Dunn's walks are wasted by the lower third of the order, and some of his walks may be due to teams wanting to go to that part of the order. Dunn does not drive in runs well, nor does he tend to move runners up, which makes him not a great fit for a #3 hitter. Doubles in front of him might as well be singles if he walks or homers, but strikeouts as a #3 hitter could ruin many an inning. Dunn seems best then as a #4 hitter, but it still makes many of his walks not very useful, and his relative lack of speed on the basepaths also makes walking less valuable still (but I'm not saying he shouldn't walk if he can-just that it takes more than most for him to score) Dunn does though possess a balance that many of the other players do not have.

6) Todd Helton- Helton is a singles hitter that is still a good #2 or #3 hitter, but his lack of power or extra base hits and his relative speed on the basepaths make him not quite as good as the other hitters on this list.

 

Well, you're drawing a lot of conclusions based on 3 months of baseball. Especially given the guys chosen (an aging Helton, Lee and Sanchez having career years, Abreu on the wrong side of 30, Dunn & Howard just hitting prime).

 

Lee is a career .850ish OPS guy. Solid, but nothing to write home about. Dunn had a down first half, but his career OBP near .390 and high SLG make him my #3 hitter. Lower than that wastes his ability to get on base (unless you're sitting on 2005 Derrek Lee or another power hitter w/ a .400 OBP). Helton hasn't shown much pop in the first half, but he gets on at a .425 clip overall. Again, the great swings from month to month are a concern, as are his declining #s. I don't think Sanchez keeps this up, though his ability to play almost anywhere makes him a great pick if you knew these #s were coming. Howard's a solid option and only 26, but of the guys listed, a .340 OBP ain't great, even w/ all that power. I'd certainly take him if 1B were open for us, but I'd hope the OBP goes up.

 

Well, yes, my list was based on whose stats I would take if I had to take those stats from the first 3 months and translate it to my team. So if you had to take those similar players in OPS and you could have had their entire first half on your team, which one would you say would be having the best season so far? It's just an exercise to see what type of hitter people actually want. So I don't necessarily think that players like Lee or Sanchez will keep their current pace up, but for this I don't need to.

[Tracer Bullet]

Well, yes, my list was based on whose stats I would take if I had to take those stats from the first 3 months and translate it to my team. So if you had to take those similar players in OPS and you could have had their entire first half on your team, which one would you say would be having the best season so far? It's just an exercise to see what type of hitter people actually want. So I don't necessarily think that players like Lee or Sanchez will keep their current pace up, but for this I don't need to.

 

Then I pretty much stick to my 2nd list.