Juan Pierre extension watch

[fromthestretch]

It's not just stolen bases but also the success rate in a runner's attempts to steal a bag, take that extra base, etc.

 

Regardless of speed, I'd prefer to have a leadoff hitter that, at the very least, gets on base 35% of the time. That's the starting point.

 

There are 8 players who have batted at least 100 at bats in the leadoff spot this year that have a .350 OBP or better. 8. That's your starting point? In fact, Jose Reyes only has a .357 OBP. Does that mean he is barely a decent leadoff hitter? Now that I look at the stats again, Pierre is probably going to get to a .340 OBP. If a .335 OBP from your leadoff hitter is horrible, and a .350-.360 is only decent, then I guess there are only 2 good leadoff men in the game.

 

The fact that a lot of other teams have medicrity out of their leadoff spot doesn't mean the Cubs should settle for it.

 

I'd also be curious to know how many players with over .350 OBPs aren't batting leadoff and why. Obviously, there are middle-of-the-order types that have OBPs well over that. But there are probably some guys batting second for some teams that have a better OBP than their leadoff hitter (i.e. Todd Walker).

 

Some teams probably have players that should be batting leadoff but aren't. Take a look at the Nationals. Jose Vidro has spent most of the season splitting time between the #2 and #3 spots in the order, while Soriano leads off. To his credit, Soriano has a respectable OBP this year, but I'd be inclined to bat Vidro first, with Soriano somewhere in the middle of the order. Put his power to use when people are on base in front of him.

 

The funny thing is, Soriano has the best OBP leading off in the league of people who lead off most of the time-.378

 

That may be true, but I think it would be more effective to put Vidro, who has been better throughout his career at getting on base, in the leadoff spot, and put Soriano down around 4th or 5th.

 

Of course, now they have Lopez, so there are even more options. Maybe go with Lopez, Vidro, Johnson, Soriano, Guillen, etc.

[CubColtPacer]

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter. The other people have set a standard of at least .350, or at least .360. If that was the standard for all position players, it wouldn't be possible. There are not enough players around that have that high of an OBP to make that possible. In fact, he said there were 119 players with a .335 or better, so that means that if they were spread out evenly, each team would have 4 of its regulars have less than a .335 OBP.

 

Then, depending on what those four players bring to the table as far as slugging, mix them in the 4-8 spots (4-9 if you're in the AL) in the order.

 

Nobody expects every player to put up a .350 OBP. However, the leadoff hitter is the guy batting ahead of the heart of the order. Even if he's not leading off an inning, he's still batting in front of the guys that you pay to drive in runs. Might as well put a guy that gets on base in that spot to increase your chances of having someone on when the big hitters come up.

 

The problem is, many of your top OBP guys are also your top slugging players. There are not enough #1 and #2 hitters left over to put up a .350 OBP for every team. Pierre is a little under that, but he makes up for the difference in OBP with the problems he creates on the basepaths.

[KaiserCesar]

Of course it would, but I see that option as very unlikely. Therefore I assume that the majority of the team will remain intact before figuring out if to re-sign Pierre or not. If the rest of the team remains intact, which I think it mostly will, then Pierre should be re-signed because he is the best leadoff hitter for this offense.

 

According to my math:

 

crappy OBP + crappy SLG = crappy offense

 

 

 

 

According to your math:

 

crappy OBP + crappy SLG + the proper leadoff man = good offense

 

No, just that he is the best thing for the offense. That does not mean it makes the offense good, just better than it was before.

 

I agree that the speed is more valuable with an offense like the current Cubs, but that doesn't make speed the most valuable asset of a leadoff candidate on this ballclub. I think improving the OBP and SLG would be the best thing for the offense.

[frostwyrm]

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter. The other people have set a standard of at least .350, or at least .360. If that was the standard for all position players, it wouldn't be possible. There are not enough players around that have that high of an OBP to make that possible. In fact, he said there were 119 players with a .335 or better, so that means that if they were spread out evenly, each team would have 4 of its regulars have less than a .335 OBP.

 

Then, depending on what those four players bring to the table as far as slugging, mix them in the 4-8 spots (4-9 if you're in the AL) in the order.

 

Nobody expects every player to put up a .350 OBP. However, the leadoff hitter is the guy batting ahead of the heart of the order. Even if he's not leading off an inning, he's still batting in front of the guys that you pay to drive in runs. Might as well put a guy that gets on base in that spot to increase your chances of having someone on when the big hitters come up.

 

The problem is, many of your top OBP guys are also your top slugging players. There are not enough #1 and #2 hitters left over to put up a .350 OBP for every team. Pierre is a little under that, but he makes up for the difference in OBP with the problems he creates on the basepaths.

Pierre's arm creates problems on basepaths too.

[goonys evil twin]

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter.

 

The problem with his OBP is that it's low and he doesn't offset it with any kind of power. I don't care where he bats. People who insist that he has to be a leadoff hitter because of his speed have a seperate agenda that has nothing to do with simply fielding the best possible 8 position players in order to create the best chance to win. If Pierre hit for a lot more power than his mediocre OBP would be a little more acceptable. His speed doesn't even come close to offsetting the negatives related to his lack of production. With all that speed, he's still not a productive offensive players (and his defense sucks as well).

[fromthestretch]

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter. The other people have set a standard of at least .350, or at least .360. If that was the standard for all position players, it wouldn't be possible. There are not enough players around that have that high of an OBP to make that possible. In fact, he said there were 119 players with a .335 or better, so that means that if they were spread out evenly, each team would have 4 of its regulars have less than a .335 OBP.

 

Then, depending on what those four players bring to the table as far as slugging, mix them in the 4-8 spots (4-9 if you're in the AL) in the order.

 

Nobody expects every player to put up a .350 OBP. However, the leadoff hitter is the guy batting ahead of the heart of the order. Even if he's not leading off an inning, he's still batting in front of the guys that you pay to drive in runs. Might as well put a guy that gets on base in that spot to increase your chances of having someone on when the big hitters come up.

 

The problem is, many of your top OBP guys are also your top slugging players. There are not enough #1 and #2 hitters left over to put up a .350 OBP for every team. Pierre is a little under that, but he makes up for the difference in OBP with the problems he creates on the basepaths.

 

If Pierre was at his career average (approx. .350 OBP), I could accept it. I'd like it to be higher, but I could accept it. As it stands now, he is currently 75 points behind Kevin Youkilis and has 27 more stolen bases. Pierre has also been caught stealing 10 times, while Youkilis hasn't been caught in five attempts. Brady Clark has an OBP of .379 and only two stolen bases, and I'd prefer him at the top of the order over Pierre. There is no way that Pierre's speed can make up for that big of a difference in OBP.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

he makes up for the difference in OBP with the problems he creates on the basepaths.

 

No, he doesn't. The guy who creates problems on the basepaths is the guy who spends more time on the basepaths.

 

Comparing Todd Walker's seasonal averages to Juan Pierre's:

Walker = 363 total bases

Pierre = 322 total bases

 

Add stolen bases, subtract caught stealing:

Walker = 367 total bases

Pierre = 356 total bases

[CubColtPacer]

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter. The other people have set a standard of at least .350, or at least .360. If that was the standard for all position players, it wouldn't be possible. There are not enough players around that have that high of an OBP to make that possible. In fact, he said there were 119 players with a .335 or better, so that means that if they were spread out evenly, each team would have 4 of its regulars have less than a .335 OBP.

 

Then, depending on what those four players bring to the table as far as slugging, mix them in the 4-8 spots (4-9 if you're in the AL) in the order.

 

Nobody expects every player to put up a .350 OBP. However, the leadoff hitter is the guy batting ahead of the heart of the order. Even if he's not leading off an inning, he's still batting in front of the guys that you pay to drive in runs. Might as well put a guy that gets on base in that spot to increase your chances of having someone on when the big hitters come up.

 

The problem is, many of your top OBP guys are also your top slugging players. There are not enough #1 and #2 hitters left over to put up a .350 OBP for every team. Pierre is a little under that, but he makes up for the difference in OBP with the problems he creates on the basepaths.

 

If Pierre was at his career average (approx. .350 OBP), I could accept it. I'd like it to be higher, but I could accept it. As it stands now, he is currently 75 points behind Kevin Youkilis and has 27 more stolen bases. Pierre has also been caught stealing 10 times, while Youkilis hasn't been caught in five attempts. Brady Clark has an OBP of .379 and only two stolen bases, and I'd prefer him at the top of the order over Pierre. There is no way that Pierre's speed can make up for that big of a difference in OBP.

 

What if he follows his career average and has a .320 average after the break? His OBP should be around .350 then-would you re-sign him?

[Jon]

Pierre has had two season with an acceptable OBP in the past four and a half. Of course, the last season he had a good OBP was 2004, when he was terrible on the base paths.

 

His numbers this season aren't flukey. He's doing exactly what he did last season (and 2002) and I'd like to see a career SLG a tad higher than 23 points above a .352 career OBP from a veteran starting position player.

Edited July 17, 2006 by Jon

[fromthestretch]

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter. The other people have set a standard of at least .350, or at least .360. If that was the standard for all position players, it wouldn't be possible. There are not enough players around that have that high of an OBP to make that possible. In fact, he said there were 119 players with a .335 or better, so that means that if they were spread out evenly, each team would have 4 of its regulars have less than a .335 OBP.

 

Then, depending on what those four players bring to the table as far as slugging, mix them in the 4-8 spots (4-9 if you're in the AL) in the order.

 

Nobody expects every player to put up a .350 OBP. However, the leadoff hitter is the guy batting ahead of the heart of the order. Even if he's not leading off an inning, he's still batting in front of the guys that you pay to drive in runs. Might as well put a guy that gets on base in that spot to increase your chances of having someone on when the big hitters come up.

 

The problem is, many of your top OBP guys are also your top slugging players. There are not enough #1 and #2 hitters left over to put up a .350 OBP for every team. Pierre is a little under that, but he makes up for the difference in OBP with the problems he creates on the basepaths.

 

If Pierre was at his career average (approx. .350 OBP), I could accept it. I'd like it to be higher, but I could accept it. As it stands now, he is currently 75 points behind Kevin Youkilis and has 27 more stolen bases. Pierre has also been caught stealing 10 times, while Youkilis hasn't been caught in five attempts. Brady Clark has an OBP of .379 and only two stolen bases, and I'd prefer him at the top of the order over Pierre. There is no way that Pierre's speed can make up for that big of a difference in OBP.

 

What if he follows his career average and has a .320 average after the break? His OBP should be around .350 then-would you re-sign him?

 

Probably not. He's going to want a rather hefty raise and at least a three-year deal, I would imagine.

 

The Cubs have other options:

 

1. Go out and get a guy that can both A) play CF and B) get on base for less money than Pierre will command.

 

2. Move Jones to CF and acquire a slugging RF (most likely via trade).

 

Personally, I think if Pierre keeps hitting this month, he'll be more valuable to the Cubs in what he brings back via trade than he would be for three more years playing in Chicago.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter. The other people have set a standard of at least .350, or at least .360. If that was the standard for all position players, it wouldn't be possible. There are not enough players around that have that high of an OBP to make that possible. In fact, he said there were 119 players with a .335 or better, so that means that if they were spread out evenly, each team would have 4 of its regulars have less than a .335 OBP.

 

Then, depending on what those four players bring to the table as far as slugging, mix them in the 4-8 spots (4-9 if you're in the AL) in the order.

 

Nobody expects every player to put up a .350 OBP. However, the leadoff hitter is the guy batting ahead of the heart of the order. Even if he's not leading off an inning, he's still batting in front of the guys that you pay to drive in runs. Might as well put a guy that gets on base in that spot to increase your chances of having someone on when the big hitters come up.

 

The problem is, many of your top OBP guys are also your top slugging players. There are not enough #1 and #2 hitters left over to put up a .350 OBP for every team. Pierre is a little under that, but he makes up for the difference in OBP with the problems he creates on the basepaths.

 

If Pierre was at his career average (approx. .350 OBP), I could accept it. I'd like it to be higher, but I could accept it. As it stands now, he is currently 75 points behind Kevin Youkilis and has 27 more stolen bases. Pierre has also been caught stealing 10 times, while Youkilis hasn't been caught in five attempts. Brady Clark has an OBP of .379 and only two stolen bases, and I'd prefer him at the top of the order over Pierre. There is no way that Pierre's speed can make up for that big of a difference in OBP.

 

What if he follows his career average and has a .320 average after the break? His OBP should be around .350 then-would you re-sign him?

 

The only way that I would re-sign Pierre is if he signs for less than 4 million per year and I can use the extra to pursue a slugging 2b ala Soriano or go after a really big time outfielder with the rest.

 

Pierre is a one trick pony and frankly, he isn't doing that trick very effectively this year.

[CuseCubFan69]

Pierre is a one trick pony and frankly, he isn't doing that trick very effectively this year.

 

Another horse anology eh? I agree. Pierre HAS to get on base at a 350 rate or he really doesn't have a heck of a lot of value.

[KaiserCesar]

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter. The other people have set a standard of at least .350, or at least .360. If that was the standard for all position players, it wouldn't be possible. There are not enough players around that have that high of an OBP to make that possible. In fact, he said there were 119 players with a .335 or better, so that means that if they were spread out evenly, each team would have 4 of its regulars have less than a .335 OBP.

 

Then, depending on what those four players bring to the table as far as slugging, mix them in the 4-8 spots (4-9 if you're in the AL) in the order.

 

Nobody expects every player to put up a .350 OBP. However, the leadoff hitter is the guy batting ahead of the heart of the order. Even if he's not leading off an inning, he's still batting in front of the guys that you pay to drive in runs. Might as well put a guy that gets on base in that spot to increase your chances of having someone on when the big hitters come up.

 

The problem is, many of your top OBP guys are also your top slugging players. There are not enough #1 and #2 hitters left over to put up a .350 OBP for every team. Pierre is a little under that, but he makes up for the difference in OBP with the problems he creates on the basepaths.

 

If Pierre was at his career average (approx. .350 OBP), I could accept it. I'd like it to be higher, but I could accept it. As it stands now, he is currently 75 points behind Kevin Youkilis and has 27 more stolen bases. Pierre has also been caught stealing 10 times, while Youkilis hasn't been caught in five attempts. Brady Clark has an OBP of .379 and only two stolen bases, and I'd prefer him at the top of the order over Pierre. There is no way that Pierre's speed can make up for that big of a difference in OBP.

 

What if he follows his career average and has a .320 average after the break? His OBP should be around .350 then-would you re-sign him?

 

The only way that I would re-sign Pierre is if he signs for less than 4 million per year and I can use the extra to pursue a slugging 2b ala Soriano or go after a really big time outfielder with the rest.

 

Pierre is a one trick pony and frankly, he isn't doing that trick very effectively this year.

 

Bingo,

 

the discussion of whether or not to resign Pierre over the last few pages of this thread have somewhat ignored a major factor - price. It seems as if we are debating whether he is bad or decent. No bad or decent player should get the ~ 8 million/year in a long term deal that I think JP will get.

[Lefty]

 

Bingo,

 

the discussion of whether or not to resign Pierre over the last few pages of this thread have somewhat ignored a major factor - price. It seems as if we are debating whether he is bad or decent. No bad or decent player should get the ~ 8 million/year in a long term deal that I think JP will get.

 

Does anybody here have any faith that Hendry can make any kind of pay/performance calculation? If Hendry decides to keep Pierre he will pay what he needs to. Hendry will sign Pierre to 2/15 contract, maybe with a third-year buyout to make it essentially 2/18, and Hendry will tell you it's a bargain based on what the Yankees paid Damon last year. As a matter of fact, it's a guarantee that Damon's name comes up at the press conference announcing the extension.

 

By the way, Abreu is the next Johnny Callison. Let's stay away from this one.

[Geech]

Does anybody here have any faith that Hendry can make any kind of pay/performance calculation?

 

Not after the Rusch and Neifi contracts.

[CuseCubFan69]

 

Bingo,

 

the discussion of whether or not to resign Pierre over the last few pages of this thread have somewhat ignored a major factor - price. It seems as if we are debating whether he is bad or decent. No bad or decent player should get the ~ 8 million/year in a long term deal that I think JP will get.

 

Does anybody here have any faith that Hendry can make any kind of pay/performance calculation? If Hendry decides to keep Pierre he will pay what he needs to. Hendry will sign Pierre to 2/15 contract, maybe with a third-year buyout to make it essentially 2/18, and Hendry will tell you it's a bargain based on what the Yankees paid Damon last year. As a matter of fact, it's a guarantee that Damon's name comes up at the press conference announcing the extension.

 

By the way, Abreu is the next Johnny Callison. Let's stay away from this one.

 

Holy heck...Johnny Callison? I haven't heard that one in a while.

 

Abreu wants a big time extension if he accepts a trade in which he has a full no trade. IMO there are ways to fix this team out there...many ways and Hendry has to take one of them and not do the goofy things he's done in the past 3.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

 

Bingo,

 

the discussion of whether or not to resign Pierre over the last few pages of this thread have somewhat ignored a major factor - price. It seems as if we are debating whether he is bad or decent. No bad or decent player should get the ~ 8 million/year in a long term deal that I think JP will get.

 

Does anybody here have any faith that Hendry can make any kind of pay/performance calculation? If Hendry decides to keep Pierre he will pay what he needs to. Hendry will sign Pierre to 2/15 contract, maybe with a third-year buyout to make it essentially 2/18, and Hendry will tell you it's a bargain based on what the Yankees paid Damon last year. As a matter of fact, it's a guarantee that Damon's name comes up at the press conference announcing the extension.

 

By the way, Abreu is the next Johnny Callison. Let's stay away from this one.

 

Bobby Abreu >>>>> Johnny Callison

[Lefty]

 

 

 

Bobby Abreu >>>>> Johnny Callison

 

That may be true, but when you're 33 and the base on balls is your sole offensive weapon, your shelf life is gettting short.

[daske17]

Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but with all the talk of moving Jones to CF, is anyone concerned about his defense? He hasn't played more than 10 games in CF since the start of his career and for someone on the downside, that's a risky proposition.

 

I say if we're getting rid of Pierre, we have a Lofton/Pie platoon next year. Maybe bring up E-Patt too so Lofton can act as a mentor to both of them. E-Patt for being a leadoff guy, and Pie for being a speedy CF.

 

I know he's struggling this year in AAA, but if he's platooned properly (meaning Dusty is bye bye and someone with an eye for youth is brought in) he could get some real valuable learning experience.

[goonys evil twin]

Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but with all the talk of moving Jones to CF, is anyone concerned about his defense? He hasn't played more than 10 games in CF since the start of his career and for someone on the downside, that's a risky proposition.

 

I can't see him being any worse than Pierre.

[jjgman21]

 

No, because a large problem with his OBP is that he is a leadoff hitter. The other people have set a standard of at least .350, or at least .360. If that was the standard for all position players, it wouldn't be possible. There are not enough players around that have that high of an OBP to make that possible. In fact, he said there were 119 players with a .335 or better, so that means that if they were spread out evenly, each team would have 4 of its regulars have less than a .335 OBP.

 

my proposed team has 7 positions likely to be over .350 OBP, and is easily achievable. it's dependant on Murton and Fontenot having an OBP over .350 in 2007, but I don't think that's unrealistic at all. if you think Fontenot isn't capable of a .350 OBP at the ML level, there are lot's of other options to get a .350 for secondbase, and enough payroll and trading chips left over to make that happen.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but with all the talk of moving Jones to CF, is anyone concerned about his defense? He hasn't played more than 10 games in CF since the start of his career and for someone on the downside, that's a risky proposition.

 

I can't see him being any worse than Pierre.

 

I'm agreeing with you a lot lately, goony. But that statement is true. Jones might not have the range of Pierre, but I think he gets better jumps. His arm even when spiking the ball in the grass on a third of his throws is better than Pierre.

[jjgman21]

Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but with all the talk of moving Jones to CF, is anyone concerned about his defense? He hasn't played more than 10 games in CF since the start of his career and for someone on the downside, that's a risky proposition.

 

I can't see him being any worse than Pierre.

 

I'm agreeing with you a lot lately, goony. But that statement is true. Jones might not have the range of Pierre, but I think he gets better jumps. His arm even when spiking the ball in the grass on a third of his throws is better than Pierre.

 

chicken arm aside, I think Pierre has had a pretty solid year defensively for the Cubs. while I don't buy into alot of the defensive metrics, I believe the bear that out.

 

I personally don't want either in center though.

[daske17]

Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but with all the talk of moving Jones to CF, is anyone concerned about his defense? He hasn't played more than 10 games in CF since the start of his career and for someone on the downside, that's a risky proposition.

 

I can't see him being any worse than Pierre.

 

I'm agreeing with you a lot lately, goony. But that statement is true. Jones might not have the range of Pierre, but I think he gets better jumps. His arm even when spiking the ball in the grass on a third of his throws is better than Pierre.

 

That being said, wouldn't we want someone better than both on defense, all things being equal?

 

More importantly, I guess my question is would it benefit the Cubs to move Jones to CF and find a RF bat (in that case who?) or keep Jones in RF and go with a Pie/Lofton (or someone comparable) platoon?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but with all the talk of moving Jones to CF, is anyone concerned about his defense? He hasn't played more than 10 games in CF since the start of his career and for someone on the downside, that's a risky proposition.

 

I can't see him being any worse than Pierre.

 

I'm agreeing with you a lot lately, goony. But that statement is true. Jones might not have the range of Pierre, but I think he gets better jumps. His arm even when spiking the ball in the grass on a third of his throws is better than Pierre.

 

That being said, wouldn't we want someone better than both on defense, all things being equal?

 

More importantly, I guess my question is would it benefit the Cubs to move Jones to CF and find a RF bat (in that case who?) or keep Jones in RF and go with a Pie/Lofton (or someone comparable) platoon?

 

I think a lot depends on what bats the Cubs could find. In all of my roster configurations for 2007, I've assumed Jones will be a part of the team. His offense would fit better in CF than RF or LF. I'm not sold on him playing any one spot, but the Cubs have to improve themselves on offense.