BA Propect Hot (and Not) List - 6/26

[Laura]

LINK

 

Cubs mentioned:

 

Randy Wells in the intro.

 

We at Hot Sheet always welcome your question and comments. One player who has been the source of a lot of those e-mails is Randy Wells. The Cubs righthander opened the season at Double-A West Tenn and was simply stellar as he went 4-2, 1.59 in 62 innings that spanned 12 starts for the Diamond Jaxx. In his first 11 starts, he never allowed more than one earned run.

 

The bulk of the e-mails we received about him consisted of, "why is Wells not on the Hot Sheet?" The main reason is that it was his performance this season that has even put him on the prospect radar. After signing as a draft-and-follow in 2003 out of Southwestern Illinois JC he had a 3.61 ERA in 222 innings, most of which came in relief, coming into this season.

 

Unfortunately for the 23-year-old, this is not his week either. His fine performance in the Southern League got him promoted to Triple-A where he allowed seven earned runs without getting out of the fourth inning in his first start on Saturday.

 

More than likely, he probably cares more about being one step away for the big leagues then about never having made the prospect Hot Sheet which this week is highlighted by Anibal Sanchez, who shut down the Yankees in his big league debut last night.

 

HOT

 

#6 Rich Hill

 

Say what you will about Rich Hill's prospect status, the guy knows how to get Triple-A hitters out. We saw another example of this last Wednesday, when Hill struck out 10 batters in seven scoreless innings. It was the fourth time this season that Hill has struck out 10 or more batters.

 

In the Team Photo

 

Eric Patterson, 2b, Cubs (Double-A West Tenn):

 

While brother Corey continues to haunt the Cubs with a breakout season in Baltimore, Eric Patterson is keeping the family name in Chicago's thoughts. The second baseman has improved in every month, and is now hitting .325 in June with eight stolen bases in ten attempts. Patterson's week included three three-hit games, and he is currently sporting a six-game hit streak.

 

NOT

 

Ryan Harvey, of, Cubs (High Class A Daytona)

The promise of his raw power has always excited scouts, but he has yet to figure out how to utilize it. He has slowed down again after a hot first week of June and is now hitting .210/.251/.345 with a 65-13 strikeout-walk ratio in 252 at-bats.

[abuck1220]

too bad for rich that the big league club is in the heat of a pennant race and they can't afford to give him an extended look.

[texascub]

too bad for rich that the big league club is in the heat of a pennant race and they can't afford to give him an extended look.

 

Since he's had control problems, I think it'd be best if he switched places with Marmol and worked out of the bullpen at first.

[treebird]

i think they should probably bench harvey

[Mephistopheles]

I'd say give him a ten start trial. No more of this three or four start crap. It puts too much pressure on him. I've always believed that saying, "Hey don't worry about losing your job. It's yours for a long time" and it will work. Rich needs to just get used to major league batters' patience and more control at that level with the lights. Everytime he's been given a chance in the rotation, it's always been "We will keep you up as long as you do fine, we have these Prior and Wood guys who are theoretically good. We also have Marmol and Guzman. Go get 'em." Give the guy a prolonged chance. Even Marshall and Koronka did okay for a stretch, and neither has the stuff and potential that Hill does.

[rawaction]

I'd say give him a ten start trial. No more of this three or four start crap. It puts too much pressure on him. I've always believed that saying, "Hey don't worry about losing your job. It's yours for a long time" and it will work. Rich needs to just get used to major league batters' patience and more control at that level with the lights. Everytime he's been given a chance in the rotation, it's always been "We will keep you up as long as you do fine, we have these Prior and Wood guys who are theoretically good. We also have Marmol and Guzman. Go get 'em." Give the guy a prolonged chance. Even Marshall and Koronka did okay for a stretch, and neither has the stuff and potential that Hill does.

 

I don't agree that Marshall does not have the stuff and potential of Hill. Marshall's curve projects to be a little better long term. Fastballs are similar, with Marshall's having more movement and more upside. Marshall has the potential to have a much better changeup. Marshall has shown a history of better control and better groundball rates.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'd say give him a ten start trial. No more of this three or four start crap. It puts too much pressure on him. I've always believed that saying, "Hey don't worry about losing your job. It's yours for a long time" and it will work. Rich needs to just get used to major league batters' patience and more control at that level with the lights. Everytime he's been given a chance in the rotation, it's always been "We will keep you up as long as you do fine, we have these Prior and Wood guys who are theoretically good. We also have Marmol and Guzman. Go get 'em." Give the guy a prolonged chance. Even Marshall and Koronka did okay for a stretch, and neither has the stuff and potential that Hill does.

 

I don't agree that Marshall does not have the stuff and potential of Hill. Marshall's curve projects to be a little better long term. Fastballs are similar, with Marshall's having more movement and more upside. Marshall has the potential to have a much better changeup. Marshall has shown a history of better control and better groundball rates.

 

Marshall already has a much better change than Hill. Of course you already know I rate Marshall higher.

[Laura]

i think they should probably bench harvey

 

No point right now. But they could move him to the all-former-position-player-pitching-roster and I can hope to see them all take the field at one time someday.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

i think they should probably bench harvey

 

No point right now. But they could move him to the all-former-position-player-pitching-roster and I can hope to see them all take the field at one time someday.

 

I think Harvey will make the conversion to the mound after next season.

[Brian]

i think they should probably bench harvey

 

No point right now. But they could move him to the all-former-position-player-pitching-roster and I can hope to see them all take the field at one time someday.

 

I think Harvey will make the conversion to the mound after next season.

 

Anybody remember what he can hit on the gun? He was a HS pitcher right?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

i think they should probably bench harvey

 

No point right now. But they could move him to the all-former-position-player-pitching-roster and I can hope to see them all take the field at one time someday.

 

I think Harvey will make the conversion to the mound after next season.

 

Anybody remember what he can hit on the gun? He was a HS pitcher right?

 

He was a HS pitcher, he normally was in the 90-93 mph range.

[TXCubsFan]

i think they should probably bench harvey

 

No point right now. But they could move him to the all-former-position-player-pitching-roster and I can hope to see them all take the field at one time someday.

 

I think Harvey will make the conversion to the mound after next season.

 

I'm betting after THIS season. The Cubs are sure being creative in finding replacements for the lost pitching class of the 2002 draft.

[Mephistopheles]

Forget the stuff they have. I personally would rate Hill's quite a bit better than Marshall's. But anyways, Hill has shown the ability to strike out hitters at every level. He's shown he can not walk batters in AAA. He's never done that in the majors though. Marshall has never shown an ability to strikeout hitters with any consistency. Marshall's walk rates have never been great and never been good in the majors. He's going to need to have a miniscule walk rate unless he gets more strikeouts. If Hill can learn some control and use it in the majors, he can certainly be a #2 starter. I don't see Marshall ever being more than an average starter with his lack of strikeouts.

 

Of course I'm not saying Hill is a better prospect than Marshall. Marshall's got a lot better chance of hitting his ceiling than Hill does.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

i think they should probably bench harvey

 

No point right now. But they could move him to the all-former-position-player-pitching-roster and I can hope to see them all take the field at one time someday.

 

I think Harvey will make the conversion to the mound after next season.

 

I'm betting after THIS season. The Cubs are sure being creative in finding replacements for the lost pitching class of the 2002 draft.

 

I can't see the Cubs giving up on Harvey as a hitter this soon, considering how highly he was thought of coming into the draft.

[C.C.]

I'd say give him a ten start trial. No more of this three or four start crap. It puts too much pressure on him. I've always believed that saying, "Hey don't worry about losing your job. It's yours for a long time" and it will work. Rich needs to just get used to major league batters' patience and more control at that level with the lights. Everytime he's been given a chance in the rotation, it's always been "We will keep you up as long as you do fine, we have these Prior and Wood guys who are theoretically good. We also have Marmol and Guzman. Go get 'em." Give the guy a prolonged chance. Even Marshall and Koronka did okay for a stretch, and neither has the stuff and potential that Hill does.

 

I don't agree that Marshall does not have the stuff and potential of Hill. Marshall's curve projects to be a little better long term. Fastballs are similar, with Marshall's having more movement and more upside. Marshall has the potential to have a much better changeup. Marshall has shown a history of better control and better groundball rates.

 

Marshall already has a much better change than Hill. Of course you already know I rate Marshall higher.

 

Who wouldn't rate Marshall Higher then Hill? Hill right now is a excellent AAA pitcher and nothing more and nothing less. Until he proves other wise it's a moot point.

[C.C.]

Forget the stuff they have. I personally would rate Hill's quite a bit better than Marshall's. But anyways, Hill has shown the ability to strike out hitters at every level. He's shown he can not walk batters in AAA. He's never done that in the majors though. Marshall has never shown an ability to strikeout hitters with any consistency. Marshall's walk rates have never been great and never been good in the majors. He's going to need to have a miniscule walk rate unless he gets more strikeouts. If Hill can learn some control and use it in the majors, he can certainly be a #2 starter. I don't see Marshall ever being more than an average starter with his lack of strikeouts.

 

Of course I'm not saying Hill is a better prospect than Marshall. Marshall's got a lot better chance of hitting his ceiling than Hill does.

 

Since when do you need high strikeouts to be a successful major league pitcher?

[Mephistopheles]

You don't need them, but they certainly help a lot. You've gotta have a miniscule walk rate in order to survive without them.

[texascub]

You don't need them, but they certainly help a lot. You've gotta have a miniscule walk rate in order to survive without them.

 

Not necessarily, if you're an extreme groundball pitcher like Z is you can get by without K'ing alot of players and having high walks. I know that Z has the capability to K any batter, but even when he's off he still gets out of trouble DPs and keeping to ball on the ground.

[Mephistopheles]

Show me someone who has a small era consistently with a bad walk rate and a bad k rate. And don't say Brandon Webb or Derek Lowe. Their ERAs are misleading and one of the key reasons that RA is the way to go.

[rawaction]

Forget the stuff they have. I personally would rate Hill's quite a bit better than Marshall's. But anyways, Hill has shown the ability to strike out hitters at every level. He's shown he can not walk batters in AAA. He's never done that in the majors though. Marshall has never shown an ability to strikeout hitters with any consistency. Marshall's walk rates have never been great and never been good in the majors. He's going to need to have a miniscule walk rate unless he gets more strikeouts. If Hill can learn some control and use it in the majors, he can certainly be a #2 starter. I don't see Marshall ever being more than an average starter with his lack of strikeouts.

 

Of course I'm not saying Hill is a better prospect than Marshall. Marshall's got a lot better chance of hitting his ceiling than Hill does.

 

Marshall's minor league numbers= 9.24 K/9, 2.51 BB/9. The bolded statement is completely untrue.

[Mephistopheles]

The strikeout rate comment was in the majors. Sure he's had a decent one in Daytona and up but not great. And his BB rate A+ or higher has been over 3.00 which is far from good.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The strikeout rate comment was in the majors. Sure he's had a decent one in Daytona and up but not great. And his BB rate A+ or higher has been over 3.00 which is far from good.

 

But his BB rate A+ or higher includes his first time around at West Tenn when he clearly wasn't ready for the jump.

[texascub]

Show me someone who has a small era consistently with a bad walk rate and a bad k rate. And don't say Brandon Webb or Derek Lowe. Their ERAs are misleading and one of the key reasons that RA is the way to go.

 

I wasn't meaning over an entire season because that would be almost impossible, but there are many pitchers in the majors who can have a bad day control wise and still get out pretty good with groundballs. IMO it's the mark of a true pitcher to be able to get out of rough situations unscathed on days when they don't have their A-game.

[rawaction]

The strikeout rate comment was in the majors. Sure he's had a decent one in Daytona and up but not great. And his BB rate A+ or higher has been over 3.00 which is far from good.

 

Sounds like somewhat of a backpeddle. If 3.0 is FAR from a good walk rate, you have high standards.

[Mephistopheles]

His BB and K rates his first time in West Tenn and Daytona are similar.

 

7.96/3.39 Daytona

7.14/3.72 West Tenn

 

Of course the West Tenn is only six starts. Anyways his rates in Daytona weren't great. The 8 K/9 was pretty good, but the BB rate was pretty weak. Obviously he isn't ready to pitch in the majors now. I think he has struck out 2 guys are less in over half his starts so far.