Bruce Miles For Supreme Ruler!

[Tracer Bullet]

Great article Bruce. Though I'd also add one more move: trade Jacques Jones while he's at his peak.

 

http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/beatwriters.asp?column=miles&id=201859

 

I'm also not that high on CLee, but he may be the only real power option for a corner OF spot in the off-season.

 

[if this should be moved to transactions, please do so - I went back and forth on where to put it]

[soapy]

I also posted a link to this here (non-premium).

 

It's nice to see Bruce continue to point out the defiencies in Hendry's approach to constructing a competetive team (including his poor evaluation of players, and poor use of funds). I also like how he threw in the "save" the Cubs line in the title. Sweet.

[Balsa]

Accurate and a good read Bruce. Great job!

 

Just one question....why publish now, and not after the Cubs got swept at Wrigley by the Tiggers?

[Tracer Bullet]

In addition to the players he suggests trading away and going after, I like that Bruce attacks the organizational philosophy of wanting more "clutch" hits and acquiring "change of scenery" guys.

 

This is dead on, imo:

 

The Cubs study statistics, but by the looks of it, they’re not giving enough weight to the right ones.

 

For example, president Andy MacPhail earlier this year bemoaned the Cubs’ inability to drive in runs with men on base, as if the players lacked some magical ability to hit in the clutch.

 

Truth be told, the Cubs don’t have enough good hitters, plain and simple, in clutch or non-clutch situations.

 

If the Cubs would only start with recognizing the importance of on-base percentage, a lot of the other offensive stats would fall into line. Get enough guys to get on base enough times and you’ll score runs.

[Warpticon]

Last year's RBI champ hit .207 with runners in scoring position.

 

I'm going to keep repeating this until somebody in power recognizes how stupid this "let's buy some clutch" philosophy is.

[louisvillecub]

Last year's RBI champ hit .207 with runners in scoring position.

 

I'm going to keep repeating this until somebody in power recognizes how stupid this "let's buy some clutch" philosophy is.

 

You mean Joe Crede isn't the most clutch player on the face of the earth??? :shock: How can you shatter Hawk and DJ's illusion???

 

:lol:

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Once again, kudos to Bruce.

 

He hit the nail on the head. The biggest problem this team has is its organizational philosophy.

[CuseCubFan69]

Last year's RBI champ hit .207 with runners in scoring position.

 

I'm going to keep repeating this until somebody in power recognizes how stupid this "let's buy some clutch" philosophy is.

 

Let's hope Hendry trades in his clutch for an automatic. By the way Warp, that's a great point and keep chirping away for all to hear!

[C.C.]

Another great article by Bruce. What's so obvious to us isn't obvious to the front office and manager.

[Tracer Bullet]

Let's hope Hendry trades in his clutch for an automatic.

 

Yikes.

[SoonerCubFan]

Last year's RBI champ hit .207 with runners in scoring position.

 

I'm going to keep repeating this until somebody in power recognizes how stupid this "let's buy some clutch" philosophy is.

 

Good point, although there is undoubtedly a team-wide problem of not getting runners in from 3rd, of not finishing off a promising start to an inning (rare as it is) by converting 2nd and 3rd w/none out into at least 2 runs. It's not just a throwaway issue solved by sabermetrics. Even our good sabermetrics guys have there problems w/RISP. To me, the two issues at hand - getting on base and "clutch" hitting - converge on one issue, being smart as a team in the approach. It seems like games are being treated as one big BP session for the hitters, and most of the starts (other than Z and Maddux) seem like the pitchers are still in Spring Training. All of this can be pinpointed in one direction IMO.

[USSoccer]

Last year's RBI champ hit .207 with runners in scoring position.

 

I'm going to keep repeating this until somebody in power recognizes how stupid this "let's buy some clutch" philosophy is.

 

Good point, although there is undoubtedly a team-wide problem of not getting runners in from 3rd, of not finishing off a promising start to an inning (rare as it is) by converting 2nd and 3rd w/none out into at least 2 runs. It's not just a throwaway issue solved by sabermetrics. Even our good sabermetrics guys have there problems w/RISP. To me, the two issues at hand - getting on base and "clutch" hitting - converge on one issue, being smart as a team in the approach. It seems like games are being treated as one big BP session for the hitters, and most of the starts (other than Z and Maddux) seem like the pitchers are still in Spring Training. All of this can be pinpointed in one direction IMO.

 

Given that clutch hitting cannot be measured tangibly, the sensible thing to do would be to make sure you had as many scoring opportunities as possible to minimize the effect of having a guy struggle with RISP.

 

That means utilizing OBP.

[goonys evil twin]

Last year's RBI champ hit .207 with runners in scoring position.

 

I'm going to keep repeating this until somebody in power recognizes how stupid this "let's buy some clutch" philosophy is.

 

Good point, although there is undoubtedly a team-wide problem of not getting runners in from 3rd, of not finishing off a promising start to an inning (rare as it is) by converting 2nd and 3rd w/none out into at least 2 runs. It's not just a throwaway issue solved by sabermetrics. Even our good sabermetrics guys have there problems w/RISP. To me, the two issues at hand - getting on base and "clutch" hitting - converge on one issue, being smart as a team in the approach. It seems like games are being treated as one big BP session for the hitters, and most of the starts (other than Z and Maddux) seem like the pitchers are still in Spring Training. All of this can be pinpointed in one direction IMO.

 

If you aren't good overall, you aren't going to be good in many types of situations, clutch being one. This team's numbers with men in scoring position are almost identical to their numbers overall. Clutch is not the issue. It's only a crutch for those who refuse to look at the real problems. You can't go out and get better clutch players. You can't improve players' clutchiness.

 

Get better hitters, and your numbers will improve. It's that simple. No need to overcomplicate things with talk of clutch.

[FergieJ31]

Get better hitters, and your numbers will improve. It's that simple. No need to overcomplicate things with talk of clutch.

 

Absolutely. I agree 100%.

 

RISP numbers are so dodgy and non-predictive I ignore them completely. 'Clutch' batters exist, just like trends in the stock market exist, but detecting either of these things statistically is damn-near impossible.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

=D> =D> =D> =D> =D>

 

Keep hammering these points, Bruce. Maybe, just maybe, it will do a little good.

[badgercub]

Great article Bruce. I don't necessarily agree on the Carlos Lee assessment though. CLee is a solid player but I think the team that signs him as a FA next year is going to severely overpay for him. He is not a great fielder and his bat is a little above average but not spectacular by any means. For the right price I think he would be a good fit on most any ballclub, but the for the amount of money he will command next year, the team that gets him will definitely overpay.

[badger1679666666]

Last year's RBI champ hit .207 with runners in scoring position.

 

I'm going to keep repeating this until somebody in power recognizes how stupid this "let's buy some clutch" philosophy is.

 

Good point, although there is undoubtedly a team-wide problem of not getting runners in from 3rd, of not finishing off a promising start to an inning (rare as it is) by converting 2nd and 3rd w/none out into at least 2 runs. It's not just a throwaway issue solved by sabermetrics. Even our good sabermetrics guys have there problems w/RISP. To me, the two issues at hand - getting on base and "clutch" hitting - converge on one issue, being smart as a team in the approach. It seems like games are being treated as one big BP session for the hitters, and most of the starts (other than Z and Maddux) seem like the pitchers are still in Spring Training. All of this can be pinpointed in one direction IMO.

 

If you aren't good overall, you aren't going to be good in many types of situations, clutch being one. This team's numbers with men in scoring position are almost identical to their numbers overall. Clutch is not the issue. It's only a crutch for those who refuse to look at the real problems. You can't go out and get better clutch players. You can't improve players' clutchiness.

 

Get better hitters, and your numbers will improve. It's that simple. No need to overcomplicate things with talk of clutch.

 

You know, we butted heads ALOT initially, but the more you post, the more I want you in Jim Hendry's position.

[brinoch]

Great article. Keep the drumbeat going, Bruce!

[goonys evil twin]

You know, we butted heads ALOT initially, but the more you post, the more I want you in Jim Hendry's position.

 

Did you call me a butthead? Why I oughta.... :club:

[BigbadB]

St. Louis: 675 hits + 233 BB + 33 HBP= 941 baserunners

Cincinnati: 649 hits + 301 BB + 27 HBP= 977 baserunners

Houston: 641 hits + 254 BB + 31 HBP= 926 baserunners

Milwaukee: 644 hits + 234 BB + 34 HBP= 912 baserunners

Chicago: 629 hits + 171 BB + 19 HBP= 819 baserunners

Pittsburgh: 661 hits + 221 BB + 39 HBP= 921 baserunners

 

St. Louis: 941 baserunners= 360 runs= 38% of baserunners score

Cincinatti: 977 baserunners= 366 runs= 37% of baserunners score

Houston: 926 baserunners= 337 runs= 36% of baserunners score

Milwaukee: 912 baserunners= 340 runs= 37% of baserunners score

Chicago: 819 baserunners= 290 runs= 35% of baserunners score

Pittsburgh: 921 baserunners= 338 runs= 36% of baserunners score

 

I did this with just the NL Central, but I could sit here and do it with every team in MLB, and the Cubs would be dead last in baserunners. And it's because their dead last in baserunners that coincides with being dead last in runs scored. They actually rank 22nd in hits. But, dead last in walks. That tells me that at least the other lousy hitting teams 23rd-30th in hits know that they suck, and at least value walks much more than the Cubs.

 

Is the real problem timely hitting? While it can't be discounted completely, it is nowhere near the problem Dusty and Hendry make it out to be. The Cubs have the lowest percentage in their division at bringing home baserunners, but not by a huge amount. Significant is that Cincinnati has had 158 more baserunners than the Cubs. Only one team in the NL Central has less than 100 more baserunners than the Cubs, and not by much (Milwaukee).

 

Looking back at the stats, the team that has had the most baserunners in this division has scored the most runs. The team with the 2nd most baserunners in this division has scored the 2nd most runs. Looks like better timely hitting has given Milwaukee a slight edge in runs scored over Houston and Pittsburgh, but the edge is insignificant.

 

What is significant is that the Cubs aren't even in the discussion. They are pathetically horrible at getting runners on base, which explains why they are nearly 40 runs off the pace from the 2nd worst offense in that division. A 2nd worse offense that has next to nothing offensively outside of Jason Bay and a red hot Freddy Sanchez. Yet, Pittsburgh has drawn 50 more walks than the Cubs.

 

Cubs are dead last in the league in baserunners and dead last in runs scored. IT IS NOT JUST A COINCIDENCE, HENDRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[badger1679666666]

Why can't the Cubs brass have access to statistics like ^^^^^^^

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Why can't the Cubs brass have access to statistics like ^^^^^^^

 

ESPN.com is blocked where they work?

[CuseCubFan69]

St. Louis: 675 hits + 233 BB + 33 HBP= 941 baserunners

Cincinnati: 649 hits + 301 BB + 27 HBP= 977 baserunners

Houston: 641 hits + 254 BB + 31 HBP= 926 baserunners

Milwaukee: 644 hits + 234 BB + 34 HBP= 912 baserunners

Chicago: 629 hits + 171 BB + 19 HBP= 819 baserunners

Pittsburgh: 661 hits + 221 BB + 39 HBP= 921 baserunners

 

St. Louis: 941 baserunners= 360 runs= 38% of baserunners score

Cincinatti: 977 baserunners= 366 runs= 37% of baserunners score

Houston: 926 baserunners= 337 runs= 36% of baserunners score

Milwaukee: 912 baserunners= 340 runs= 37% of baserunners score

Chicago: 819 baserunners= 290 runs= 35% of baserunners score

Pittsburgh: 921 baserunners= 338 runs= 36% of baserunners score

 

I did this with just the NL Central, but I could sit here and do it with every team in MLB, and the Cubs would be dead last in baserunners. And it's because their dead last in baserunners that coincides with being dead last in runs scored. They actually rank 22nd in hits. But, dead last in walks. That tells me that at least the other lousy hitting teams 23rd-30th in hits know that they suck, and at least value walks much more than the Cubs.

 

Is the real problem timely hitting? While it can't be discounted completely, it is nowhere near the problem Dusty and Hendry make it out to be. The Cubs have the lowest percentage in their division at bringing home baserunners, but not by a huge amount. Significant is that Cincinnati has had 158 more baserunners than the Cubs. Only one team in the NL Central has less than 100 more baserunners than the Cubs, and not by much (Milwaukee).

 

Looking back at the stats, the team that has had the most baserunners in this division has scored the most runs. The team with the 2nd most baserunners in this division has scored the 2nd most runs. Looks like better timely hitting has given Milwaukee a slight edge in runs scored over Houston and Pittsburgh, but the edge is insignificant.

 

What is significant is that the Cubs aren't even in the discussion. They are pathetically horrible at getting runners on base, which explains why they are nearly 40 runs off the pace from the 2nd worst offense in that division. A 2nd worse offense that has next to nothing offensively outside of Jason Bay and a red hot Freddy Sanchez. Yet, Pittsburgh has drawn 50 more walks than the Cubs.

 

Cubs are dead last in the league in baserunners and dead last in runs scored. IT IS NOT JUST A COINCIDENCE, HENDRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Now when Hendry sees that he'll process the information and get 8 guys that only walk with no power. That's what he did with the speed and "catchaball" guys.

[goonys evil twin]

Given the fact that the Cubs have so few good hitters, that means they have few hitters that are good at getting on base. And when those few hitters do get on base, it only makes sense that the guys who are left to move those good hitters along and drive them in are lesser hitters, and therefore less likely to get the job done.

[BigbadB]

By the way, if anyone would like to copy my statistical analysis above and flood Hendry's in box with it, be my guest. :wink: