Mark Prior Starting Tommorrow

[srbin84]

My point was I can only blame Dusty so much. I can give him pretty much all of the blame for his 2004 performance, but at this point, I don't blame him for anything that happens to Prior or Wood. They had a lot of time to rehab more than once. Every other pitcher in the league deals with it too. Look at any playoff team and you will see a lot of guys who had more than 210 IP.

 

Look at pitches (specifically the pitches Prior threw as he tired and his mechanics altered). Pitcher abuse is a great stat to look at.

 

Especially when it was Prior's first season throwing anywhere near that many innings.

 

It's a good stat, but I'd like to see how many innings the non-Cubs at the top of the list pitch every year and what their performance is.

 

I can tell you Livan Hernandez throws a lot of innings/pitches a year and really isn't that good.

 

Actually, I'm a big fan of Livan and think he is a good pitcher.

 

Is it the 5.18 ERA and 1.55 WHIP he has on the season that makes him a good pitcher? Or is it the career 4.16 ERA and .275 BAA?

 

It's his numbers since leaving Florida (around 3.75 ERA) and the 220-250 IP every year as well as the complete games. He's not an ace, but one of the better No. 2's in the game. You NEVER have to worry about putting bums like Rusch in to pitch in his slot and dilute the numbers. I'm not judging him on his performance so far this year because he has a good and long resume.

[Jon]

1. IP isn't really a good way to figure pitcher abuse. Clearly, 6 IP by Madduz involves a whole lot less pitches than does 6 IP by Prior or Wood. during 2003 was permanent, and no amount of rehab can fix it.

An average of 113+ pitches per start in your first full season in the majors is pretty absurd.

 

Really just amazing.

As a follow up, even Zambrano hasn't thrown as many pitches per games started in any season as Prior did in 2003.

 

Zambrano:

2003 - 106.7 pitches per start, 32 starts

2004 - 111.9 pitches per start, 31 starts

2005 - 107.9 pitches per start, 33 starts

2006 - 112.3 pitches per start, 15 starts

 

Prior:

2003 - 113.4 pitches per start, 30 starts

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Isn't that a very similar ERA figure that you were saying makes Prior a 3 or 4 starter, but for Livan it makes him a 1 or 2?

[srbin84]

Isn't that a very similar ERA figure that you were saying makes Prior a 3 or 4 starter, but for Livan it makes him a 1 or 2?

 

Livan is an exception to the rule because he produces an ungodly amount of innings. You can carry one less relief pitcher if you wanted because he pitches so much.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

My point was I can only blame Dusty so much. I can give him pretty much all of the blame for his 2004 performance, but at this point, I don't blame him for anything that happens to Prior or Wood. They had a lot of time to rehab more than once. Every other pitcher in the league deals with it too. Look at any playoff team and you will see a lot of guys who had more than 210 IP.

 

Look at pitches (specifically the pitches Prior threw as he tired and his mechanics altered). Pitcher abuse is a great stat to look at.

 

Especially when it was Prior's first season throwing anywhere near that many innings.

 

It's a good stat, but I'd like to see how many innings the non-Cubs at the top of the list pitch every year and what their performance is.

 

I can tell you Livan Hernandez throws a lot of innings/pitches a year and really isn't that good.

 

Actually, I'm a big fan of Livan and think he is a good pitcher.

 

Is it the 5.18 ERA and 1.55 WHIP he has on the season that makes him a good pitcher? Or is it the career 4.16 ERA and .275 BAA?

 

It's his numbers since leaving Florida (around 3.75 ERA) and the 220-250 IP every year as well as the complete games. He's not an ace, but one of the better No. 2's in the game. You NEVER have to worry about putting bums like Rusch in to pitch in his slot and dilute the numbers. I'm not judging him on his performance so far this year because he has a good and long resume.

 

Wow. You do realize during his time in San Fran, he's had seasons worse or equivalent to Glendon Rusch had at the same time*? It's great that he can eat innings up, but it's not as great when he's average at best (and sometimes awful). And his career numbers aren't that great considering he's pitched his home games in three pitcher's havens (Florida, San Francisco and Washington).

 

* 2001: Livan: 77 ERA+, Glendon: 89 ERA+

2002: Livan: 87 ERA+, Glendon: 85 ERA+

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Isn't that a very similar ERA figure that you were saying makes Prior a 3 or 4 starter, but for Livan it makes him a 1 or 2?

 

Livan is an exception to the rule because he produces an ungodly amount of innings. You can carry one less relief pitcher if you wanted because he pitches so much.

 

So an ERA of X over Y IP = 3 or 4 starter

 

but an ERA of X over Y + 50 IP = 1 or 2 starter

 

 

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth here.

[srbin84]

My point was I can only blame Dusty so much. I can give him pretty much all of the blame for his 2004 performance, but at this point, I don't blame him for anything that happens to Prior or Wood. They had a lot of time to rehab more than once. Every other pitcher in the league deals with it too. Look at any playoff team and you will see a lot of guys who had more than 210 IP.

 

Look at pitches (specifically the pitches Prior threw as he tired and his mechanics altered). Pitcher abuse is a great stat to look at.

 

Especially when it was Prior's first season throwing anywhere near that many innings.

 

It's a good stat, but I'd like to see how many innings the non-Cubs at the top of the list pitch every year and what their performance is.

 

I can tell you Livan Hernandez throws a lot of innings/pitches a year and really isn't that good.

 

Actually, I'm a big fan of Livan and think he is a good pitcher.

 

Is it the 5.18 ERA and 1.55 WHIP he has on the season that makes him a good pitcher? Or is it the career 4.16 ERA and .275 BAA?

 

It's his numbers since leaving Florida (around 3.75 ERA) and the 220-250 IP every year as well as the complete games. He's not an ace, but one of the better No. 2's in the game. You NEVER have to worry about putting bums like Rusch in to pitch in his slot and dilute the numbers. I'm not judging him on his performance so far this year because he has a good and long resume.

 

Wow. You do realize during his time in San Fran, he's had seasons worse or equivalent to Glendon Rusch had at the same time*? It's great that he can eat innings up, but it's not as great when he's average at best (and sometimes awful). And his career numbers aren't that great considering he's pitched his home games in three pitcher's havens (Florida, San Francisco and Washington).

 

* 2001: Livan: 77 ERA+, Glendon: 89 ERA+

2002: Livan: 87 ERA+, Glendon: 85 ERA+

 

He was like 21 when he came up, didn't even have 150 IP in the minors according to baseball cube and he was the real World Series MVP for the Marlins despite all of that. I would think someone who has such an interest in the minor leagues would not have such high expectations for a pitcher in those circumstances.

Edited June 19, 2006 by srbin84

[srbin84]

Isn't that a very similar ERA figure that you were saying makes Prior a 3 or 4 starter, but for Livan it makes him a 1 or 2?

 

Livan is an exception to the rule because he produces an ungodly amount of innings. You can carry one less relief pitcher if you wanted because he pitches so much.

 

So an ERA of X over Y IP = 3 or 4 starter

 

but an ERA of X over Y + 50 IP = 1 or 2 starter

 

 

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth here.

 

Livan is probably the only guy who has an added value because of his stamina. That type of stamina is very rare and a big reason why he makes so much money.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Isn't that a very similar ERA figure that you were saying makes Prior a 3 or 4 starter, but for Livan it makes him a 1 or 2?

 

Livan is an exception to the rule because he produces an ungodly amount of innings. You can carry one less relief pitcher if you wanted because he pitches so much.

 

So an ERA of X over Y IP = 3 or 4 starter

 

but an ERA of X over Y + 50 IP = 1 or 2 starter

 

 

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth here.

 

Livan is probably the only guy who has an added value because of his stamina. That type of stamina is very rare and a big reason why he makes so much money.

 

Why is added stamina so valuable if he's posting the same 4.16 ERA during that time?

[srbin84]

Isn't that a very similar ERA figure that you were saying makes Prior a 3 or 4 starter, but for Livan it makes him a 1 or 2?

 

Livan is an exception to the rule because he produces an ungodly amount of innings. You can carry one less relief pitcher if you wanted because he pitches so much.

 

So an ERA of X over Y IP = 3 or 4 starter

 

but an ERA of X over Y + 50 IP = 1 or 2 starter

 

 

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth here.

 

Livan is probably the only guy who has an added value because of his stamina. That type of stamina is very rare and a big reason why he makes so much money.

 

Why is added stamina so valuable if he's posting the same 4.16 ERA during that time?

 

I'd rather go with the 3.75ish figure because he had high ERAs when he was pretty young. A 3.75 would have put a team in 3rd place in the NL for team ERA. Teams average around 1440 IP. Livan regularly accounts for close to 17% of the team innings. That's the kind of guy you want to have around.

[imb]

livan has pitched in some pretty decent pitchers parks in his time hasnt he? He's ok, he has a place on a team, but he's no big deal.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Why is added stamina so valuable if he's posting the same 4.16 ERA during that time?

 

I'd rather go with the 3.75ish figure because he had high ERAs when he was pretty young. A 3.75 would have put a team in 3rd place in the NL for team ERA. Teams average around 1440 IP. Livan regularly accounts for close to 17% of the team innings. That's the kind of guy you want to have around.

 

I'd rather go with the facts. How young is pretty young? I've bolded a few from seasons after he's been well established in the league.

 

1996: 0.00 ERA

1997: 3.18 ERA

1998: 4.72 ERA

1999: 4.64 ERA

2000: 3.75 ERA

2001: 5.24 ERA

2002: 4.38 ERA

2003: 3.20 ERA

2004: 3.60 ERA

2005: 3.98 ERA

2006: 5.18 ERA

 

So he's posting a 4.16 career ERA, but he eats a lot more innings than most pitchers. Innings eaters are great, but I don't see how they're something extra special when they're pitching just average over all those extra innings.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

livan has pitched in some pretty decent pitchers parks in his time hasnt he? He's ok, he has a place on a team, but he's no big deal.

 

Yup...Florida, San Fran and now Washington.

[srbin84]

Why is added stamina so valuable if he's posting the same 4.16 ERA during that time?

 

I'd rather go with the 3.75ish figure because he had high ERAs when he was pretty young. A 3.75 would have put a team in 3rd place in the NL for team ERA. Teams average around 1440 IP. Livan regularly accounts for close to 17% of the team innings. That's the kind of guy you want to have around.

 

I'd rather go with the facts. How young is pretty young? I've bolded a few from seasons after he's been well established in the league.

 

1996: 0.00 ERA

1997: 3.18 ERA

1998: 4.72 ERA

1999: 4.64 ERA

2000: 3.75 ERA

2001: 5.24 ERA

2002: 4.38 ERA

2003: 3.20 ERA

2004: 3.60 ERA

2005: 3.98 ERA

2006: 5.18 ERA

 

So he's posting a 4.16 career ERA, but he eats a lot more innings than most pitchers. Innings eaters are great, but I don't see how they're something extra special when they're pitching just average over all those extra innings.

 

Early to mid 20's is pretty young with his lack of experience. All I'm saying is to judge him now not just on 3-year splits but 6-year splits. I don't see anything unreasonable about that.

[imb]

Hahhaha, an older player can change a lot over the course of 6 years. Jesus, a six year split. Is the average career in the majors even up to 6 years? I doubt it. Why not a ten year split? Let's judge Maddux on his last 15 years in the league.

[srbin84]

Hahhaha, an older player can change a lot over the course of 6 years. Jesus, a six year split. Is the average career in the majors even up to 6 years? I doubt it. Why not a ten year split? Let's judge Maddux on his last 15 years in the league.

 

Well, Livan has changed for the better in a big way, so 3 years is just fine with me.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Why is added stamina so valuable if he's posting the same 4.16 ERA during that time?

 

I'd rather go with the 3.75ish figure because he had high ERAs when he was pretty young. A 3.75 would have put a team in 3rd place in the NL for team ERA. Teams average around 1440 IP. Livan regularly accounts for close to 17% of the team innings. That's the kind of guy you want to have around.

 

I'd rather go with the facts. How young is pretty young? I've bolded a few from seasons after he's been well established in the league.

 

1996: 0.00 ERA

1997: 3.18 ERA

1998: 4.72 ERA

1999: 4.64 ERA

2000: 3.75 ERA

2001: 5.24 ERA

2002: 4.38 ERA

2003: 3.20 ERA

2004: 3.60 ERA

2005: 3.98 ERA

2006: 5.18 ERA

 

So he's posting a 4.16 career ERA, but he eats a lot more innings than most pitchers. Innings eaters are great, but I don't see how they're something extra special when they're pitching just average over all those extra innings.

 

Early to mid 20's is pretty young with his lack of experience. All I'm saying is to judge him now not just on 3-year splits but 6-year splits. I don't see anything unreasonable about that.

 

Basically whatever will fit your argument?

 

So the past 6 years is ok?

[srbin84]

Why is added stamina so valuable if he's posting the same 4.16 ERA during that time?

 

I'd rather go with the 3.75ish figure because he had high ERAs when he was pretty young. A 3.75 would have put a team in 3rd place in the NL for team ERA. Teams average around 1440 IP. Livan regularly accounts for close to 17% of the team innings. That's the kind of guy you want to have around.

 

I'd rather go with the facts. How young is pretty young? I've bolded a few from seasons after he's been well established in the league.

 

1996: 0.00 ERA

1997: 3.18 ERA

1998: 4.72 ERA

1999: 4.64 ERA

2000: 3.75 ERA

2001: 5.24 ERA

2002: 4.38 ERA

2003: 3.20 ERA

2004: 3.60 ERA

2005: 3.98 ERA

2006: 5.18 ERA

 

So he's posting a 4.16 career ERA, but he eats a lot more innings than most pitchers. Innings eaters are great, but I don't see how they're something extra special when they're pitching just average over all those extra innings.

 

Early to mid 20's is pretty young with his lack of experience. All I'm saying is to judge him now not just on 3-year splits but 6-year splits. I don't see anything unreasonable about that.

 

Basically whatever will fit your argument?

 

So the past 6 years is ok?

 

I don't care what stats anybody wants to look at or what they want to say. Livan Hernandez is a good pitcher. He has led the league in innings each of the last 3 seasons and made the allstar game in two of those seasons. You're the one digging up old bones from years ago to try to defend your agrument. IMB laughs hysterically at the suggestion of a 6 year split but doesn't say anything when you use seasons from 5 years ago or longer ago as the buttress to your argument. Try and figure that one out.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Not sure what you're trying to say in your last post, but he has a 4.14 ERA over the last 6 years. Still doesn't match the 3.75 ERA you came up with.

[badger1679666666]

Not sure what you're trying to say in your last post, but he has a 4.14 ERA over the last 6 years. Still doesn't match the 3.75 ERA you came up with.

 

He's trying to say he doesn't care what actual factual statistics you come up with, he's sticking with his opinion, regardless how flimsy of evidence it's based upon. Or something like that.

[srbin84]

Not sure what you're trying to say in your last post, but he has a 4.14 ERA over the last 6 years. Still doesn't match the 3.75 ERA you came up with.

 

He's trying to say he doesn't care what actual factual statistics you come up with, he's sticking with his opinion, regardless how flimsy of evidence it's based upon. Or something like that.

 

If you read the thread, this is a perfect post in regards to Raisin. He's saying Hernandez should be judged on what he was doing long ago and not recent history, but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite.

[badger1679666666]

Not sure what you're trying to say in your last post, but he has a 4.14 ERA over the last 6 years. Still doesn't match the 3.75 ERA you came up with.

 

He's trying to say he doesn't care what actual factual statistics you come up with, he's sticking with his opinion, regardless how flimsy of evidence it's based upon. Or something like that.

 

If you read the thread, this is a perfect post in regards to Raisin. He's saying Hernandez should be judged on what he was doing long ago and not recent history, but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite.

 

I read the entire thread, and I haven't seen one argument from you based on any strong statistical basis for why Livan is so good. In fact, everyone has torn apart your arguments, and then you make up excuses as to why Livan is the exception to the rule. It's really easy to win debates when you can make up the rules and change them as you see fit.

[Banedon]

...but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite.

 

Oh man...do you even REMEMBER last year? He was getting booed unmercifully at every at bat. Fan favorite? Come on...

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Not sure what you're trying to say in your last post, but he has a 4.14 ERA over the last 6 years. Still doesn't match the 3.75 ERA you came up with.

 

He's trying to say he doesn't care what actual factual statistics you come up with, he's sticking with his opinion, regardless how flimsy of evidence it's based upon. Or something like that.

 

If you read the thread, this is a perfect post in regards to Raisin. He's saying Hernandez should be judged on what he was doing long ago and not recent history, but when it comes to Patterson, we should judge on what he is doing now beause he is a Cubs prospect and a fan favorite.

 

No, he also said we should judge Livan by what he was doing in the present.

Is it the 5.18 ERA and 1.55 WHIP he has on the season that makes him a good pitcher? Or is it the career 4.16 ERA and .275 BAA?

[badger1679666666]

No, he also said we should judge Livan by what he was doing in the present.

Is it the 5.18 ERA and 1.55 WHIP he has on the season that makes him a good pitcher? Or is it the career 4.16 ERA and .275 BAA?

 

that doesn't matter dude, he eats up alot of innings even though he's sucking this year. Plus that's an abberation, if you ignore the 3 other years he's been awful, he's been ok.