Mathmatically eliminated???

[kevigre]

Here's a question for anyone who is good with at math? Can someone calculate this...

 

If....everyone else in the division plays .500 baseball are the Cubs already mathmatically eliminated AND if not assuming everyone else in the division goes .500 what record do the Cubs need to have in order to win the division?

 

Hendry believes we are not out of it and you hear the "Houston did it last year" BS. Does anyone know how to calculate this?

[Banedon]

Someone's been listening to Mike Murphy... :P

[kevigre]

You got that right...thought it was a great question. Don't want to wait till next week for the answer.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Here's a question for anyone who is good with at math? Can someone calculate this...

 

If....everyone else in the division plays .500 baseball are the Cubs already mathmatically eliminated AND if not assuming everyone else in the division goes .500 what record do the Cubs need to have in order to win the division?

 

Hendry believes we are not out of it and you hear the "Houston did it last year" BS. Does anyone know how to calculate this?

 

1) We're nowhere close to being mathmatically eliminated. To be mathmatically eliminated, you need to be 5 games back with 4 games to play, for example.

 

2) If everyone else in the division plays 500 ball from here on out, we would have to finish 63-49 (14 over) to take the division as we are currently 13½ back.

[Banedon]

1) We're nowhere close to being mathmatically eliminated. To be mathmatically eliminated, you need to be 5 games back with 4 games to play, for example.

 

Actually the way the question was asked is this...if the Cubs win every game from here on out, the NL central still has to play each other a certain number of games. Which means that the NL central teams cannot possibly lose every game. Someone has to win a Cards-Stros game, for example. If you take that into account, and assume that the NL central teams will lose every game against another division, there has to be a number that will be an elimination point for the Cubs.

 

I don't think we're near that yet, but this was brought up at the end of Murphy interviewing his Baseball Info Solutions buddy.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

1) We're nowhere close to being mathmatically eliminated. To be mathmatically eliminated, you need to be 5 games back with 4 games to play, for example.

 

Actually the way the question was asked is this...if the Cubs win every game from here on out, the NL central still has to play each other a certain number of games. Which means that the NL central teams cannot possibly lose every game. Someone has to win a Cards-Stros game, for example. If you take that into account, and assume that the NL central teams will lose every game against another division, there has to be a number that will be an elimination point for the Cubs.

 

I don't think we're near that yet, but this was brought up at the end of Murphy interviewing his Baseball Info Solutions buddy.

 

It doesn't matter who plays what team and when. If all teams in the division play 500 ball overall from here on out, the Cubs only need to be 14 over 500 the rest of the way to win it. Where those wins come from does not matter. The likelihood of that happening is another story altogether.

[cheapseats]

Here's a question for anyone who is good with at math? Can someone calculate this...

 

If....everyone else in the division plays .500 baseball are the Cubs already mathmatically eliminated AND if not assuming everyone else in the division goes .500 what record do the Cubs need to have in order to win the division?

 

Hendry believes we are not out of it and you hear the "Houston did it last year" BS. Does anyone know how to calculate this?

 

Here's what we should really be worrying about:

 

http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

According to the simulations at Cool Standings, the Cubs have no chance at the postseason. According to Baseball Prospectus's simulations, we have less than a 1 in 400 chance.

 

It's time to worry about next year already.

[halplm]

if the CUBS play .500 ball the rest of the year it will be a shocker...

[abuck1220]

heh, according to BP, the marlins have a better chance at the playoffs than the cubs. extensions 'round the house!

[Hoosiercubbie]

Playing 14 over 500 the rest of the way won't get it done. The Cardinals are already 15 over. If the Cubs play 14 over 500 the rest of the way that would only get them to 2 over 500. Should the Cardinals play 500 ball, the Cubs would have to win about 70 of their last 112 games or 62.5% - not likely to happen.

[Banedon]

1) We're nowhere close to being mathmatically eliminated. To be mathmatically eliminated, you need to be 5 games back with 4 games to play, for example.

 

Actually the way the question was asked is this...if the Cubs win every game from here on out, the NL central still has to play each other a certain number of games. Which means that the NL central teams cannot possibly lose every game. Someone has to win a Cards-Stros game, for example. If you take that into account, and assume that the NL central teams will lose every game against another division, there has to be a number that will be an elimination point for the Cubs.

 

I don't think we're near that yet, but this was brought up at the end of Murphy interviewing his Baseball Info Solutions buddy.

 

It doesn't matter who plays what team and when. If all teams in the division play 500 ball overall from here on out, the Cubs only need to be 14 over 500 the rest of the way to win it. Where those wins come from does not matter. The likelihood of that happening is another story altogether.

 

Yeah not sure where the .500 part of the question came in. I didn't hear that part mentioned when it was asked.

[Guest]

According to Baseball Prospectus's simulations, we have less than a 1 in 400 chance.

That's the pessimistic way of looking at it. Think of it this way: We are 150 times more likely to make the playoffs than the Royals!

[Derwood]

let's use real numbers here:

 

The Cardinals are 33-18 after 51 games. They have 111 left to play, so .500 from here on out is 56-55, giving them a final record of 89-73.

 

The Cubs are currently 19-31 after 50 games. they could win the division (under this proposed scenario) by going 71-41 the rest of the way.

 

So they are nowhere close to being mathematically out if everyone else plays .500 ball from here on out

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Playing 14 over 500 the rest of the way won't get it done. The Cardinals are already 15 over. If the Cubs play 14 over 500 the rest of the way that would only get them to 2 over 500. Should the Cardinals play 500 ball, the Cubs would have to win about 70 of their last 112 games or 62.5% - not likely to happen.

 

You are correct, I was being lazy. The 14 should have been 28.

[cubfan1955]

let's use real numbers here:

 

The Cardinals are 33-18 after 51 games. They have 111 left to play, so .500 from here on out is 56-55, giving them a final record of 89-73.

 

The Cubs are currently 19-31 after 50 games. they could win the division (under this proposed scenario) by going 71-41 the rest of the way.

 

So they are nowhere close to being mathematically out if everyone else plays .500 ball from here on out

The Cards are playing at a .647 clip right now. If they cool off to a .600 clip the rest of the way they will finish at 100-62. The Cubs would have to go 81-31 the rest of the way to tie. It's not impossible but it's pretty bleak. 71-41 might get them into a wildcard hunt but that is pretty bleak too to expect the Cubs to play 30 over .500 the rest of the way.

[Catman61]

Here is a very cool site that actually figures in head to head play and is updated every day. Numbers always look a little funny this time of year with so many games left. At the bottom of the page are the explanations for how the numbers were calculated.

 

http://128.32.125.151/~baseball/

[Banedon]

Here is a very cool site that actually figures in head to head play and is updated every day. Numbers always look a little funny this time of year with so many games left. At the bottom of the page are the explanations for how the numbers were calculated.

 

http://128.32.125.151/~baseball/

 

Great find! That's exactly what the original poster was asking.

[woodchip2153]

Here is a very cool site that actually figures in head to head play and is updated every day. Numbers always look a little funny this time of year with so many games left. At the bottom of the page are the explanations for how the numbers were calculated.

 

http://128.32.125.151/~baseball/

 

I'm not sure I understand the elimination numbers. Could somebody further explain what those numbers are? Thanks.

[Banedon]

Here is a very cool site that actually figures in head to head play and is updated every day. Numbers always look a little funny this time of year with so many games left. At the bottom of the page are the explanations for how the numbers were calculated.

 

http://128.32.125.151/~baseball/

 

Great find! That's exactly what the original poster was asking.

 

So if I'm understanding this correctly, when the number of games to avoid elimination exceeds the number of games left, we're eliminated...right?

[neely crenshaw]

someone mentioned it earlier but to win 90 games we have to go 71-41...i would say that is a bit more than 14 games over. i would be shocked if 90 won the division or the wild card...i would be even more shocked if we went 71-41!

[Catman61]

As I said the numbers are a little funky this time of year.

 

The 35 in the elimination column means that as of today, the Cubs have to win a minimum of 35 more games to avoid being eliminated from any possible chance at a 1st place.

 

Each teams(NL Central only) elimination number added to their current win total comes to 54 and the difference in elim number from top to bottom reflects the games back in the standings.

 

Just a guess, but I imagine that with 110 or more games left for everyone that is as far as they can project with current data.

Edited May 30, 2006 by Catman61

[Catman61]

i would be shocked if 90 won the division or the wild card.

 

Last year was the 1st time (excluding the 95 strike year) that the NL WC winner had fewer than 90 wins,

[Catman61]

So if I'm understanding this correctly, when the number of games to avoid elimination exceeds the number of games left, we're eliminated...right?

 

Kind of, team head to head games have an effect as well. In the explanation, they give an example from 1996 when numerically by games behind and remaining games the Giants SEEMED to still have a chance BUT the 2 teams ahead had remaining head to head games that guaranteed that one or the other would at worst a record 1 game better than the Giants thus they were actually eliminated.

 

explanation here

http://128.32.125.151/~baseball/detail_calc.html

 

what do numbers mean

http://128.32.125.151/~baseball/detail_numbers.html

 

I hope that helps clear it up some.

[woodchip2153]

As I said the numbers are a little funky this time of year.

 

The 35 in the elimination column means that as of today, the Cubs have to win a minimum of 35 more games to avoid being eliminated from any possible chance at a 1st place.

 

Each teams elimination number added to their current win total comes to 54 and the difference in elim number from top to bottom reflects the games back in the standings.

 

Just a guess, but I imagine that with 110 or more games left for everyone that is as far as they can project with current data.

 

Thanks. That is what I thought they were doing, but I wasn't sure.

[BigbadB]

There's no way to calculate what teams will fall out of the race and trade off their veteran players to contending teams, either.

 

Some teams down the stretch won't be much better than the Royals.