Please Dusty...

[scs_paradise]

bynum was a 2nd round pick by oakland in 2000. beane never misses.

 

Obvious sarcasm, so you admit that acquiring and playing Bynum is a horrible decision. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, fool me repeatedly in agony, shame on Hendry and Dusty.

 

Actually, no. I don't read that as sarcasm. I read that as a subtle little slam on anyone who likes how Billy Beane does business. It's not sarcasm, it's trolling.

 

We've tried to tell CubfaninCA over and over again that the walk was invented long before Billy Beane was ever born and that Billy Beane did not invent OBP. But, it doesn't seem to sink in. That's okay. I only wish it would sink in with Hendry and Dusty.

 

Today was a perfect example of what a walk can do. Atlanta got 9 of them. The Cubs got one. The Cubs only walk was an intentional walk to get to the pitcher. Atlanta scored 3 runs off of walks. The walks didn't drive in the runs, but they were on base when someone else drove them in. The more runners you get on base, the chances increase of driving in a runner. The Cubs are dead last in OBP, and their dead last in runs scored. It's actually pretty elementary.

 

The Royals have scored more runs than the Cubs, and they've played 2 less games than the Cubs.

 

Hudson threw 70 pitches in 6 innings. Zambrano threw 120 in 6.2 innings. This particular line in the box score pretty much looks the same everyday.

 

weren't there atleast two runs scored today that were walked in....that is sad when the walks ARE driving in runs.

[Outshined_One]

hey bbb question..

 

why is oakland 5th in walks and 22nd in runs?

 

My guess is they probably aren't sac bunting enough, or aren't gritting their teeth hard enough.

 

They need more gritty gamer types.

 

Total Plate Appearances

18) Oakland 1798

29) Chicago Cubs 1677

 

ABs

16) Oakland 1585

29) Chicago Cubs 1522

 

BBs

5) Oakland 183

30) Chicago Cubs 116

 

% of Walks Taken

Oakland: 10.2%

Chicago: 6.9%

 

OBP

22) Oakland .328

30) Chicago Cubs .301

 

Batting Average

27) Oakland .246

28) Chicago Cubs .245

 

Runs

22) Oakland 211

30) Chicago Cubs 167

 

If the Cubs had as many PAs as Oakland, they'd be projected as having ~179 runs. If the A's had as many PAs as Chicago, they'd be projected as having ~197 runs. They have comparable BAs...yet Oakland walks more and has more runs.

 

I'm seeing a correlation going on here. It helps to have a good BA, that much is obvious. But if one team gets more baserunners than the other, yet both have similar BAs, guess which team scores more runs?

[minnesotacubsfan]

continue to play Neifi and Bynum. Please continue to use Gopher Ball Glendon as the spot starter. All you are doing is sealing your own fate.

 

 

:shock:

 

 

you appearantly missed the '90's

 

 

and most of the '80's, '70's, good chunk of the '60's as well

[CubfaninCA]

hey bbb question..

 

why is oakland 5th in walks and 22nd in runs?

 

My guess is they probably aren't sac bunting enough, or aren't gritting their teeth hard enough.

 

They need more gritty gamer types.

 

Total Plate Appearances

18) Oakland 1798

29) Chicago Cubs 1677

 

ABs

16) Oakland 1585

29) Chicago Cubs 1522

 

BBs

5) Oakland 183

30) Chicago Cubs 116

 

% of Walks Taken

Oakland: 10.2%

Chicago: 6.9%

 

OBP

22) Oakland .328

30) Chicago Cubs .301

 

Batting Average

27) Oakland .246

28) Chicago Cubs .245

 

Runs

22) Oakland 211

30) Chicago Cubs 167

 

If the Cubs had as many PAs as Oakland, they'd be projected as having ~179 runs. If the A's had as many PAs as Chicago, they'd be projected as having ~197 runs. They have comparable BAs...yet Oakland walks more and has more runs.

 

I'm seeing a correlation going on here. It helps to have a good BA, that much is obvious. But if one team gets more baserunners than the other, yet both have similar BAs, guess which team scores more runs?

 

Give the Cubs Lee & a DH and the Cubs are ahead.

[CubfaninCA]

In 2004, Oakland was 15th in runs & 5th in walks.

The Cubs were 16th in runs and 25th in walks.

 

The 2005 stats are skewed because the idiot manager used patterson & neifi 1-2 too much. Oakland was 5th in walks and 9th in runs in 05. Cubs were 20th in runs. Near the bottom in walks.

[Careless]

bynum was a 2nd round pick by oakland in 2000. beane never misses.

 

And you wonder why people call you a troll.

 

actually i don't wonder.

 

some people just don't like having their theories/beliefs & comments scrutinized.

Pointing out that bean doesn't bat 1000 with draft picks scrutinizes/challenges no one's beliefs.

 

he was referring to more than this one post. hence my answer which encompasses many subjects.

A defense for "He was pointing to this post and others" cannot consist of talking about other subjects exclusively, especially when this post is the example given.

[CubfaninCA]

bynum was a 2nd round pick by oakland in 2000. beane never misses.

 

And you wonder why people call you a troll.

 

actually i don't wonder.

 

some people just don't like having their theories/beliefs & comments scrutinized.

Pointing out that bean doesn't bat 1000 with draft picks scrutinizes/challenges no one's beliefs.

 

he was referring to more than this one post. hence my answer which encompasses many subjects.

A defense for "He was pointing to this post and others" cannot consist of talking about other subjects exclusively, especially when this post is the example given.

 

huh? example of what?

 

my initial post was a joke. i've said several times that beane's a great drafter, and that the cubs shouldn't try to model oakland or atl (bring up the kids to fill holes) cause the cubs suck at drafting.

[Careless]

bynum was a 2nd round pick by oakland in 2000. beane never misses.

 

And you wonder why people call you a troll.

 

actually i don't wonder.

 

some people just don't like having their theories/beliefs & comments scrutinized.

Pointing out that bean doesn't bat 1000 with draft picks scrutinizes/challenges no one's beliefs.

 

he was referring to more than this one post. hence my answer which encompasses many subjects.

A defense for "He was pointing to this post and others" cannot consist of talking about other subjects exclusively, especially when this post is the example given.

 

huh? example of what?

 

my initial post was a joke. i've said several times that beane's a great drafter, and that the cubs shouldn't try to model oakland or atl (bring up the kids to fill holes) cause the cubs suck at drafting.

Classic, he responds to "you were trolling" with "I was trolling" as a defense.

[bobbyd20]

Wasn't the whole point about Moneyball was finding things that are undervalued for a franchise that doesn't have the payroll to spend money on things everyone thinks are important?

 

At the time, OBP was something Oakland felt was undervalued throughout baseball. Since they had a limited payroll to work with, this was something they chose to focus on.

 

I'm not saying this to imply that OBP isn't important. Obviously, getting on base (not making outs) is a key component to scoring runs.

 

In my mind, people have gone too far with the whole on-base thing as if it's the only thing that matters in baseball. It is important, and lord knows the Cubs need to improve in this area, but the author (and Beane) felt that using statistical analysis allowed them to gain an advantage over guys who only evaluated players based on their tools.

 

This is the Cubs biggest problem. The value tools and potential over production.

[CubfaninCA]

bynum was a 2nd round pick by oakland in 2000. beane never misses.

 

And you wonder why people call you a troll.

 

actually i don't wonder.

 

some people just don't like having their theories/beliefs & comments scrutinized.

Pointing out that bean doesn't bat 1000 with draft picks scrutinizes/challenges no one's beliefs.

 

he was referring to more than this one post. hence my answer which encompasses many subjects.

A defense for "He was pointing to this post and others" cannot consist of talking about other subjects exclusively, especially when this post is the example given.

 

huh? example of what?

 

my initial post was a joke. i've said several times that beane's a great drafter, and that the cubs shouldn't try to model oakland or atl (bring up the kids to fill holes) cause the cubs suck at drafting.

Classic, he responds to "you were trolling" with "I was trolling" as a defense.

 

that's [expletive]

[CubfaninCA]

Wasn't the whole point about Moneyball was finding things that are undervalued for a franchise that doesn't have the payroll to spend money on things everyone thinks are important?

 

At the time, OBP was something Oakland felt was undervalued throughout baseball. Since they had a limited payroll to work with, this was something they chose to focus on.

 

I'm not saying this to imply that OBP isn't important. Obviously, getting on base (not making outs) is a key component to scoring runs.

 

In my mind, people have gone too far with the whole on-base thing as if it's the only thing that matters in baseball. It is important, and lord knows the Cubs need to improve in this area, but the author (and Beane) felt that using statistical analysis allowed them to gain an advantage over guys who only evaluated players based on their tools.

 

This is the Cubs biggest problem. The value tools and potential over production.

 

of course, obp's important. unless you have outstanding pitching, you need a good batting average to win. walks are nice and all,but not nearly as important as batting average. the importance of the walk is overvalued.

[dalgreen]

Wasn't the whole point about Moneyball was finding things that are undervalued for a franchise that doesn't have the payroll to spend money on things everyone thinks are important?

 

At the time, OBP was something Oakland felt was undervalued throughout baseball. Since they had a limited payroll to work with, this was something they chose to focus on.

 

I'm not saying this to imply that OBP isn't important. Obviously, getting on base (not making outs) is a key component to scoring runs.

 

In my mind, people have gone too far with the whole on-base thing as if it's the only thing that matters in baseball. It is important, and lord knows the Cubs need to improve in this area, but the author (and Beane) felt that using statistical analysis allowed them to gain an advantage over guys who only evaluated players based on their tools.

 

This is the Cubs biggest problem. The value tools and potential over production.

 

of course, obp's important. unless you have outstanding pitching, you need a good batting average to win. walks are nice and all,but not nearly as important as batting average. the importance of the walk is overvalued.

 

Any way a guy gets on base is important. But to your point, the Cubs have had plenty of baserunners this year -- just look at how many games we lost when we outhit our opponent --- today's game is another exampe. I place a high value on OBP and I place a high value on batting avg. However, this Cub team has neither and that's why they have a pathetic offense.

[CubfaninCA]

Wasn't the whole point about Moneyball was finding things that are undervalued for a franchise that doesn't have the payroll to spend money on things everyone thinks are important?

 

At the time, OBP was something Oakland felt was undervalued throughout baseball. Since they had a limited payroll to work with, this was something they chose to focus on.

 

I'm not saying this to imply that OBP isn't important. Obviously, getting on base (not making outs) is a key component to scoring runs.

 

In my mind, people have gone too far with the whole on-base thing as if it's the only thing that matters in baseball. It is important, and lord knows the Cubs need to improve in this area, but the author (and Beane) felt that using statistical analysis allowed them to gain an advantage over guys who only evaluated players based on their tools.

 

This is the Cubs biggest problem. The value tools and potential over production.

 

of course, obp's important. unless you have outstanding pitching, you need a good batting average to win. walks are nice and all,but not nearly as important as batting average. the importance of the walk is overvalued.

 

Any way a guy gets on base is important. But to your point, the Cubs have had plenty of baserunners this year -- just look at how many games we lost when we outhit our opponent --- today's game is another exampe. I place a high value on OBP and I place a high value on batting avg. However, this Cub team has neither and that's why they have a pathetic offense.

 

a few 3 run homers would be nice. this teams lack of power is appalling. they have to be close to last in home runs too.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Wasn't the whole point about Moneyball was finding things that are undervalued for a franchise that doesn't have the payroll to spend money on things everyone thinks are important?

 

At the time, OBP was something Oakland felt was undervalued throughout baseball. Since they had a limited payroll to work with, this was something they chose to focus on.

 

I'm not saying this to imply that OBP isn't important. Obviously, getting on base (not making outs) is a key component to scoring runs.

 

In my mind, people have gone too far with the whole on-base thing as if it's the only thing that matters in baseball. It is important, and lord knows the Cubs need to improve in this area, but the author (and Beane) felt that using statistical analysis allowed them to gain an advantage over guys who only evaluated players based on their tools.

 

This is the Cubs biggest problem. The value tools and potential over production.

 

of course, obp's important. unless you have outstanding pitching, you need a good batting average to win. walks are nice and all,but not nearly as important as batting average. the importance of the walk is overvalued.

 

Any way a guy gets on base is important. But to your point, the Cubs have had plenty of baserunners this year -- just look at how many games we lost when we outhit our opponent --- today's game is another exampe. I place a high value on OBP and I place a high value on batting avg. However, this Cub team has neither and that's why they have a pathetic offense.

 

a few 3 run homers would be nice. this teams lack of power is appalling. they have to be close to last in home runs too.

 

Since you asked.......

 

CUBS are 15-7 when they outhit the opponents.... 2-18 when they get outhit.... and 1-4 when the hits are even

 

Dead last in HR's ........

 

          Avg    Max    Min  St Dev   CUBS   Rank  Zscore
HR         51     68     34   10.61     34     16   -1.60

[Outshined_One]

Wasn't the whole point about Moneyball was finding things that are undervalued for a franchise that doesn't have the payroll to spend money on things everyone thinks are important?

 

At the time, OBP was something Oakland felt was undervalued throughout baseball. Since they had a limited payroll to work with, this was something they chose to focus on.

 

Bingo.

 

OBP was the focus of the book because of the particular subject matter it was written about. I think people always get that screwed up about Moneyball; it was not so much a book about baseball as it was about maximizing the profits of a business that does not have much resources at its disposal. The Athletics are a franchise that did not have a whole lot of money to spend on draftees and free agents. They had to find ways to acquire players who would not cost very much, but would also be productive. Thus, the use of sabremetrics and OBP came into play. Oakland felt it was a terrific way to evaluate the potential production of the guys they drafted.

 

At the time, OBP was undervalued. Guys who could draw walks were not receiving nearly as much attention as toolsy potential guys in the draft and free agency. A number of teams focused on other statistics (BA, for example) that drove a player's value up despite him not really being that productive. Tony Womack is a good example of that kind of player. Decent average...but in the grand scheme of things, he doesn't get on base a whole lot. So, the Athletics exploited that deficiency in the market to the best of their abilities while they could. OBP was the main way of doing it for hitters, but there were other ways they went about it.

 

However, whenever a flaw in the market is exposed, other teams proceed to take advantage of it. This instance is a good example, as teams like the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers (under Depo), and a few others caught on.

 

Thus, the Athletics had to readjust the way they drafted and sought out players. Their most recent draft saw them take six high school pitchers in the first seven rounds, which was a huge no-no in Moneyball.

 

The appeal of Beane is his ability to use a limited budget in order to assemble a competitive team year in and year out. Beane took over in 1998. The team has had a winning record in each year from 1999-2005, a period of six years. In that time, they have won the division three times, made the wild card once, and had two seasons where the A's won 100+ games.

 

Other teams have successfully used other models of drafting and approaching free agency despite budget limitations (Twins). There is plenty to be said for having excellent coaching in the minors and developing players effectively. The Cubs have not shown that yet, but other teams can do it pretty well.

 

While OBP is not the be-all, end-all of offensive metrics, it is a very good way of evaluating how good a position player is at not making an out, which is critical in baseball. It could get replaced in a few years by something else. But for now, it's one of the best metrics we have available to us.