Prior and Wood updates

CubinNY · May 8, 2006

Win, I'll give you credit. You are possibly the only Cub fan I know who justifies the Wood in relief decision.

Even though you're wrong, you stick your guns.

:wink:
And the funny thing is, I will only stick to my guns until someone can poke holes in the logic surrounding their decision.

sarcasm?
No, honesty.

I mean it. I didn't base my opinion of this move on anything other than the logic at the time the decision was made. To base it on anything else, anything including any hindsight would be unfair.

If someone can engage the facts and logic that I have laid out and show how it is either incomplete or faulty, I will gladly alter my opinion.

They already have a number of times.

CubsWin · May 8, 2006

Win, I'll give you credit. You are possibly the only Cub fan I know who justifies the Wood in relief decision.

Even though you're wrong, you stick your guns.

:wink:
And the funny thing is, I will only stick to my guns until someone can poke holes in the logic surrounding their decision.

The holes have been poked, your refusal to acknowledge that doesn't mean they don't exist.

I've read the responses. I haven't seen it. I am more than willing to have you help me see it.

All I have read to date is a restating of the same argument that I previously addressed and, I believe, effectively countered with the logic and facts I have put forth.

No one has shown that being 4 games back with two months to play was too big of a deficit and the Cubs were foolish to try to overcome it.

No one has shown that the potential harm of missing Wood for a month this season is any greater than a few wins.

No one has shown that it was completely knowable that Matt Lawton would fail as much as he did as a lead-off hitter.

No one has chosen the hypothetical, yet basically equal, option of voluntarily sitting Howry this season if the Cubs find themselves 4 games out of the wildcard on July 31st.

And no one has shown why not shutting Wood down last season put Kerry's health in more danger than it already was.

That's what poking holes in my argument would look like. Wouldn't it? But no one has done any of that.

All we have here is the difference of point of view. Some fans looked at the Cubs chances on July 31st from a more pessimistic view and saw little to no chance of the Cubs coming back, and thus, the decision to gamble with Wood was utterly pointless. I completely understand this point of view. If I shared in their pessimism, I would agree completely. But I don't.

I know that it wasn't a high percentage play, but I also know that strange and unexpected things happen quite often in baseball. Injuries occur. Fortunes turn on a dime. The moderately pessimistic view of the Cubs chances on July 31st didn't allow for those possibilities, but I'm glad that Hendry's and Baker's view did. I still would have shelved Wood earlier than they did, but not at the beginning of August. No way.

CubsWin · May 8, 2006

Win, I'll give you credit. You are possibly the only Cub fan I know who justifies the Wood in relief decision.

Even though you're wrong, you stick your guns.

:wink:
And the funny thing is, I will only stick to my guns until someone can poke holes in the logic surrounding their decision.

sarcasm?
No, honesty.

I mean it. I didn't base my opinion of this move on anything other than the logic at the time the decision was made. To base it on anything else, anything including any hindsight would be unfair.

If someone can engage the facts and logic that I have laid out and show how it is either incomplete or faulty, I will gladly alter my opinion.

They already have a number of times.

How? All I've read have been simple restatements of the argument I have already addressed or misrepresentations and misunderstandings of the meaning of my argument. I have diligently and thoughtfully replied to responses and, in many cases, received short and relatively thoughtless responses in return. I found Jon's response to be rather thoughtful, and I gave it a long and thorough response that I felt addressed the points he raised. I await his response.

But posts that simply say that the holes have already been poked lack the necessary evidence. Its not just enough to say it, you need to show it. Don't you?

Jon · May 8, 2006

The hypothetical is irrelevent since the argument seems to be about the team's future.
Uh, Jon, I only set it in the future for the fun of it. It is the exact same scenario the Cubs faced on July 31st last season so it is completely relevent. It couldn't be a more relevent hypothetical.

The argument is about the future, not the scenario.

It's also not plausible.
Well, oddly enough, it is almost the exact same situation (just change a few minor details) the Cubs faced with Wood last season, who was the Cubs best right-handed set-up man at the time just like Howry is now. So for all intents and purposes, it is completely plausible.

According to the doctors, Kerry wouldn't be further damaged if allowed to pitch with the rotator fraying. He just would have to deal with the discomfort which would get a lot easier if he is only pitching an inning instead of 6 or 7 innings. So, basically, the Cubs were presented with the exact same choice on July 31st last season that you have called not plausible.

You are 4 games back of the wildcard with two months to play. Anything can happen. You are given the choice of sitting your best set up man (last season Wood, this season Howry) or not sitting him and putting your best 25 on the field to try to get into the playoffs. What would you choose?

The doctor's word aside, it didn't take into account him messing something else up. When you pitch with discomfort, you change your mechanics. It's dangerous.

And how is the scenario plausible? When is the best reliever on a team shut down when there's no injury? There are many considerations that an injury brings. It is absolutely relevant to the decision.

In 12 IP, what's the difference between a good ERA and a bad ERA? 3 earned runs? There's a good chance that won't even make a difference between two wins or losses.
Where do you get 12 IPs? Is that the amount of innings your best set up will pitch in two months? Because that is the potential difference Kerry would have made, not 12 innings. I don't know where you got that.

Even though they didn't follow through with it, what happened to not pitching Kerry in multiple innings or pitching him on back-to-back days? I'm not sure the doctor considered that. And that's the only way he even got to 12 IP in the month he pitched. Even though they did that, Kerry Wood was not being treated as a normal reliever. He was being treated as an injured pitcher who was going to be used out the bullpen as long as it made sense and only in situations in which he was needed. That was going to limit his innings. The problem was their judgement in keeping him in the bullpen.

Baseball is all about the weighing the present and the future. That is what the GM's job is and Hendry made the decision to keep Wood in there.
I thought baseball and the GM's job was about winning games.

So the GM's job stops after the last two months? Or are the next season's game less important, even when you're in a better position to compete. They focus on more than one season at a time. No GM makes moves based on one season.

Would you say that it doesn't matter how far out of the Wild Card the team is?
No, Jon. That's why I mentioned that they were only 4 games out with two months to play. Come on, let's have an honest discussion, okay?

If they were more games back with less time to play, of course it would make a difference. It obviously did make a difference to Cubs management because they chose to shut him down on August 31st. I probably would have done it a week or so earlier, but now we are talking about a 1-2 weeks difference instead of a month. The potential impact of Kerry Wood not being with the team the next season for a period of one to two weeks is rather negligible, don't you think?

You mentioned 4 games out because that's where they were. I didn't see you say anything about where they were a week, two weeks, or three weeks later.

And I don't see how three starts is negligible.

It's also worth pointing out that half-way through August, the Cubs were 5 games under .500. Houston was 10 games over. And yet they continued to keep Wood in the bullpen for 2 more weeks.
Here, we agree. So if you want to blame Hendry and Baker for having Kerry miss a week or two more this season than was absolutely necessary, I will gladly join you.

As for your post before about Hendry receiving praise about the decision if the Cubs were winning right now, I don't think you could be further from the truth. The same people who have been bashing the move, of which I am one, have been doing so consistently since it was made.
I didn't mean those of you who have been bashing the move from the beginning, I meant Cubs fans in general. If other things hadn't gone wrong (Rusch and Williams collapsing, Lee injury, Ramirez and Pierre underperforming), the Cubs would be in a much better place right now and Marshall would ostensibly be replacing Wood. Many people would look at this move as a decent gamble to take to give the Cubs their best chance of winning last season and that it has had very little to no impact on the results of the Cubs this season given Marshall's excellent performance. Unfortunately, a lot of other unrelated and unexpected things have gone wrong and so here we are.

Marshall would not be pitching for Wood right now. He replaced Williams in the rotation as the #4 started. If Prior was healthy, which they assumed would be the case going into the season, the rotation would have started off as Prior, Maddux, Z, Rusch, and Williams. If Williams pitched himself out of the rotation during ST, which he did, they would have gone with a 4-man rotation and then have Williams join the rotation later. I don't see the Cubs leaving Williams in AAA to start the season and leaving him out of the rotation. That is not Hendry's style. If they did bring up Marshall, it would have been several weeks into the season to replace Williams. And at that point, Hill probably would have been the more attractive option.

But the way it worked out with Marshall was just luck on Hendry's part, which isn't a good method for GMs. Nobody expected him to be ready to compete for that position. That can't be used to justify the decision and shouldn't even really be brought up.

The potential downside to keeping Wood pitching out of the bullpen was significantly greater than the potential benefit.
The potential downside is what...two fewer wins to date this season, maybe? The potential upside was giving the Cubs and their fans their best chance of getting into the playoffs and winning a World Series. Unless you are seeing a different downside, I don't see how you are justifying the above statement.

The potential downside is a month or more without one of your best starting pitchers when you're starting tied for first. The potential upside was a making a minimal contribution out of the bullpen to a team on its way down and in competition with 7 other teams for the Wild Card spot. And a week later, they were 8th in that Wild Card race.

I doubt I'm the only one who saw a much better chance to get to the World Series this year than on August 1st last year, when the Cubs were doing nothing to stand out from the pack.

abuck1220 · May 8, 2006

Win, I'll give you credit. You are possibly the only Cub fan I know who justifies the Wood in relief decision.

Even though you're wrong, you stick your guns.

:wink:
And the funny thing is, I will only stick to my guns until someone can poke holes in the logic surrounding their decision.

sarcasm?
No, honesty.

I mean it. I didn't base my opinion of this move on anything other than the logic at the time the decision was made. To base it on anything else, anything including any hindsight would be unfair.

If someone can engage the facts and logic that I have laid out and show how it is either incomplete or faulty, I will gladly alter my opinion.

dude, that's all the last two pages of this thread is.

there were TONS of people who said it was a bad idea last year when it was going on, so it's not hindsight.

i started to respond to each one of your 'points' and then i get to stuff about matt lawton and what if's involving players that weren't on the team last year, and i realized that you're either stubbornly grasping at straws or just trolling. either way, i decided it wasn't worth it.

CubfaninCA · May 9, 2006

i guess it doesn't matter that wood didn't want to be shutdown. shutting him down when there's still a decent chance of making the wildcard sends one helluva message. who wants to play for a quitter organization?

badger1679666666 · May 9, 2006

i guess it doesn't matter that wood didn't want to be shutdown. shutting him down when there's still a decent chance of making the wildcard sends one helluva message. who wants to play for a quitter organization?

It doesn't matter ONE IOTA whether Wood wanted to be shutdown. He's as much of a competitor as anyone out there. That's why Hendry is the GM. He has to make those decisions. No player is going to want to be shutdown, it's up to management to make the tough decisions.

CubfaninCA · May 9, 2006

i guess it doesn't matter that wood didn't want to be shutdown. shutting him down when there's still a decent chance of making the wildcard sends one helluva message. who wants to play for a quitter organization?

It doesn't matter ONE IOTA whether Wood wanted to be shutdown. He's as much of a competitor as anyone out there. That's why Hendry is the GM. He has to make those decisions. No player is going to want to be shutdown, it's up to management to make the tough decisions.

good luck resigning a guy when you give up so easily.

Transmogrified Tiger · May 9, 2006

i guess it doesn't matter that wood didn't want to be shutdown. shutting him down when there's still a decent chance of making the wildcard sends one helluva message. who wants to play for a quitter organization?

It doesn't matter ONE IOTA whether Wood wanted to be shutdown. He's as much of a competitor as anyone out there. That's why Hendry is the GM. He has to make those decisions. No player is going to want to be shutdown, it's up to management to make the tough decisions.

good luck resigning a guy when you give up so easily.

Those quitters in New York aren't letting Zambrano pitch anymore this year, and they're in first place!

Equating not letting Wood pitch to quitting is lunacy.

badger1679666666 · May 9, 2006

i guess it doesn't matter that wood didn't want to be shutdown. shutting him down when there's still a decent chance of making the wildcard sends one helluva message. who wants to play for a quitter organization?

It doesn't matter ONE IOTA whether Wood wanted to be shutdown. He's as much of a competitor as anyone out there. That's why Hendry is the GM. He has to make those decisions. No player is going to want to be shutdown, it's up to management to make the tough decisions.

good luck resigning a guy when you give up so easily.

Those quitters in New York aren't letting Zambrano pitch anymore this year, and they're in first place!

Equating not letting Wood pitch to quitting is lunacy.

And basing managerial decisions on what players want is even more lunacy especially an uber-competetive player.

Chris · May 9, 2006

What's interesting is that from the postgame, Kerry sounds like he was the one who made the decision:

If I bail out in August or early August of last year, then I get ridiculed for giving up on the team. I made the right decision.

Link

badger1679666666 · May 9, 2006

What's interesting is that from the postgame, Kerry sounds like he was the one who made the decision:

If I bail out in August or early August of last year, then I get ridiculed for giving up on the team. I made the right decision.

Link

Well if He's making decisions on when he should or shouldn't pitch, then Hendry should be fired on the spot. No player should make those decisions. Especially when the franchise is paying him. That's why it's a management decision.

abuck1220 · May 9, 2006

welp, looks like you'll have to find a different issue to play devil's advocate about. i'm sure you'll find something.

CubfaninCA · May 9, 2006

welp, looks like you'll have to find a different issue to play devil's advocate about. i'm sure you'll find something.

huh? i think you have it backwards.

http://cubs.scout.com/2/528807.html

Chris · May 9, 2006

welp, looks like you'll have to find a different issue to play devil's advocate about. i'm sure you'll find something.

huh? i think you have it backwards.

http://cubs.scout.com/2/528807.html

Um, same link.

badger1679666666 · May 9, 2006

welp, looks like you'll have to find a different issue to play devil's advocate about. i'm sure you'll find something.

huh? i think you have it backwards.

http://cubs.scout.com/2/528807.html

:?:

CubfaninCA · May 9, 2006

welp, looks like you'll have to find a different issue to play devil's advocate about. i'm sure you'll find something.

huh? i think you have it backwards.

http://cubs.scout.com/2/528807.html

:?:

i'm the one explaining how baseball really works and not playing devil advocate with fantasy scenarios.

Chris · May 9, 2006

:-s

CubfaninCA · May 9, 2006

simply - shutting wood down would have sent a bad message to his teammates, to wood, and to fans.

of course, self-proclaimed smart fans are another story. :)

Chris · May 9, 2006

simply - shutting wood down would have sent a bad message to his teammates, to wood, and to fans.

of course, self-proclaimed smart fans are another story. :)

:|

Mark Priors Calves · May 9, 2006

welp, looks like you'll have to find a different issue to play devil's advocate about. i'm sure you'll find something.

huh? i think you have it backwards.

http://cubs.scout.com/2/528807.html

:?:

i'm the one explaining how baseball really works and not playing devil advocate with fantasy scenarios.

:lmao:

Transmogrified Tiger · May 9, 2006

simply - shutting wood down would have sent a bad message to his teammates, to wood, and to fans.

of course, self-proclaimed smart fans are another story. :)

:|

THE EMOTICON MAKES IT OKAY

Chris · May 9, 2006

simply - shutting wood down would have sent a bad message to his teammates, to wood, and to fans.

of course, self-proclaimed smart fans are another story. :)

:|

THE EMOTICON MAKES IT OKAY

No, it was not a wink! :wink:

abuck1220 · May 9, 2006

i thought he was saying he was glad that he didn't finish out the season, and that having surgery then (as opposed to waiting til the end of the season) was the right decision.

wow, the cubs are even dumber than i thought if wood was the guy calling the shots.

stitchface · May 9, 2006

arch or truss?

Prior and Wood updates

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