Aramis Ramirez or Scott Rolen?

[soccer10k]

Look, I DO NOT want ANY other 3rd base over Aramis. Look I realize that Rolen is better defensively, and you could make the case that Wright and Cabrera are better then ARam. But I don't care....ARam, IMO, is widely popular in Chicago (as is RODAN), if the Cubs traded for or sign somebody to replace at 3rd, that said player would be under pressure from the Cubs fans to match ARam production to justify losing ARam.

 

In other words, I know this sounds a bit of homerism...but there is NOT a third baseman I would take over ARam right now. I'm not saying ARam is the best at position, but he is so darn close though.

 

A-rod? :wink:

 

Nope...Cause I still see ARod as the GAME'S best SS, except Jeter won't get off his high horse, and let the superior player have the position.

 

I don't think ARod earned the right to play SS for the Yankees. That is Jeter's position and he has earned it by working is butt off every single day. I know ARod is the better hitter and if the roles were reversed (Jeter coming to ARod's team) I think Jeter would have to play second fiddle to ARod. But the Yankees are Jeter's team. Jeter dives into the stands to get a ball. ARod slaps an opposing players arm to get the ball out. Jeter hits home runs to tie/win World Series games. ARod gets 2 HR's and 7 RBI's in a 15-2 rout of the Devil Rays. There is a difference.

[sonofsamiam]

Since we're talking about Aramis, I'll just rant a bit here about Barry Rozner, who is clearly as big a hack as Mariotti/Downey, etc.

 

Today on Mike North (yes, I'm ashamed for listening), Rozner said that Aramis was a terrible signing, because Pittsburgh knew what they were doing when they let him go. Basically he said that Pirates management knew he didn't come to play every day, that he has no heart, and that the Cubs were stupid to sign him to the contract they did.

 

He also said that:

 

- He'd take Crede over Aramis, no question

- He doubts Aramis will play 110 games this year, because he's "always hurt" (and it was of course implied that Ramirez refuses to play through any pain)

- Aramis only tries to hit home runs when he's up to bat

 

Even North was a little surprised Rozner was so quick to dismiss Aramis when compared to Crede.

 

This probably belongs in Rants, but I didn't want it to get lost. Guess I'm just peeved that people who are so clueless about sports (or so apparently biased against certain individuals personally) get paid to write and talk about them, but I suppose I'm just giving Rozner what he wants by talking about it.

[CubinNY]

Since we're talking about Aramis, I'll just rant a bit here about Barry Rozner, who is clearly as big a hack as Mariotti/Downey, etc.

 

Today on Mike North (yes, I'm ashamed for listening), Rozner said that Aramis was a terrible signing, because Pittsburgh knew what they were doing when they let him go. Basically he said that Pirates management knew he didn't come to play every day, that he has no heart, and that the Cubs were stupid to sign him to the contract they did.

 

He also said that:

 

- He'd take Crede over Aramis, no question

- He doubts Aramis will play 110 games this year, because he's "always hurt" (and it was of course implied that Ramirez refuses to play through any pain)

- Aramis only tries to hit home runs when he's up to bat

 

Even North was a little surprised Rozner was so quick to dismiss Aramis when compared to Crede.

 

This probably belongs in Rants, but I didn't want it to get lost. Guess I'm just peeved that people who are so clueless about sports (or so apparently biased against certain individuals personally) get paid to write and talk about them, but I suppose I'm just giving Rozner what he wants by talking about it.

 

Let is out man.

 

You can see a graph of Aramis's BA by month here

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=1002&position=3B&page=0&type=full

[Andy]

Which brings up my question. Is Aramis usually a slow-starter when the season starts?

Absolutely. The same thing happened last year and Ramirez ended up close to Lee's numbers in HR and RBI before he was shut down, so he'll be fine.

[K-Town]

Which brings up my question. Is Aramis usually a slow-starter when the season starts?

Absolutely. The same thing happened last year and Ramirez ended up close to Lee's numbers in HR and RBI before he was shut down, so he'll be fine.

 

Actually AR had a 1.033 OPS after the first week of last season.

 

He started out a little slower than that in 2004, though. So there's no real trend for him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Which brings up my question. Is Aramis usually a slow-starter when the season starts?

Absolutely. The same thing happened last year and Ramirez ended up close to Lee's numbers in HR and RBI before he was shut down, so he'll be fine.

 

Actually AR had a 1.033 OPS after the first week of last season.

 

He started out a little slower than that in 2004, though. So there's no real trend for him.

 

Near the end of May last year, Ramirez had an OPS below .730.

[Andy]

Which brings up my question. Is Aramis usually a slow-starter when the season starts?

Absolutely. The same thing happened last year and Ramirez ended up close to Lee's numbers in HR and RBI before he was shut down, so he'll be fine.

 

Actually AR had a 1.033 OPS after the first week of last season.

 

He started out a little slower than that in 2004, though. So there's no real trend for him.

OK, but after the first month of last season, he was batting .241 with only 4 home runs (his lowest totals of the year in both categories). Only the fact that he drew an above-average (for him) 13 walks in April kept his OBP at a fairly solid .344.

[K-Town]

Which brings up my question. Is Aramis usually a slow-starter when the season starts?

Absolutely. The same thing happened last year and Ramirez ended up close to Lee's numbers in HR and RBI before he was shut down, so he'll be fine.

 

Actually AR had a 1.033 OPS after the first week of last season.

 

He started out a little slower than that in 2004, though. So there's no real trend for him.

 

Near the end of May last year, Ramirez had an OPS below .730.

 

And near the end of May in 2004, he was over .900. This year remains to be seen. So again, no trend to note, which is what I was responding to.

[jjgman21]

seems like Aram has some bad luck in April. I remember last year he kept hitting the ball hard but jerking everything foul the first month. this year, he's not completely on, but he's still hit alot of balls really hard but right at 'em.

[Catman61]

Rolen is 5 years older..

 

5 years?

 

Rolen dob 4/4/75

ARam dob 6/25/78

[Catman61]

Ramirez is clearly the better offensive player

 

clearly?

 

Excluding Rolen's cup of coffee in 1996 (130 AB) and his injured 2005 season Rolen has NEVER had a season with an OPS+ under 121 (8 times) and 4 seasons with an OPS+ over 130. ARam has 3 seasons over 120 and 2 over 130. 130 also happens to be Rolen career OPS+ which is just 7 points under ARam's career best

[Catman61]

Rolen is a great player but his is finishing up his prime

 

Shame the Cubs went and signed a player finishing up his prime to a 5 year 65 million $ contract.

[elconq05]

Rolen may have lost a step, but he is still the best defensive 3B in the league. Ramirez is clearly the better offensive player, is improving defensively (though he will never be Rolen with the glove), and is younger. They both have a history in injuries, but as it was pointed out Rolen's injuries are structural and somewhat chronic. Ramirez's injuries have been muscular.

 

It's a tough call, but if I were building a team I'd go with Ramirez. If I needed to win right now I might go with Rolen. 2 or 3 years from now this would be a no brainer for Aramis.

 

How is that clear?

 

Rolen's Career: .284/.376/.515

 

Ramirez Career: .277/.329/.481

 

 

For this year and next I'd take Rolen after that Ramirez.

 

That's a little misleading, considering Rolen's numbers include his prime, and Ramirez's numbers only include developmental years up through 25 and no prime years to boost his numbers.

 

You really can't assume improvement.

[Catman61]

Going by 3yr averages, they appaer very similar.

 

Rolen: 289/384/533/917

Ramirez: 296/350/532/882

 

The key difference is that Rolen provides an extra 30 points in OBP. Given current age and other factors, I'll take Ramirez.

 

Of course Rolen's 3 year avg posted above includes this line from 2005

.235/.323/.383/.706

[Catman61]

However, some Card fans refuse to acknowledge that Rolen's 2004 was a aberration, in probability. He is 31, exiting his prime like Derrek Lee

 

1999 - 121 OPS+

2000 - 126 OPS+

2001 - 127 OPS+

2002 - 132 OPS+

2003 - 139 OPS+

2001 - 160 OPS+

 

While 2004 is a bit of a jump, an OPS+ in the mid to high 140's wouldn't have been unreasonable in looking at Rolen's trend line

[elconq05]

Ramirez. He's better than Rolen, but he needs to keep his legs/groin healthy

 

There is nothing available out there to back up that statement.

And Ramirez's .189 BA to start this year isn't helping his case in this discussion.

 

OPS - Rolen

Career .891 for Rolen, .808 for Ramirez

 

Offense - Rolen

The numbers back up Rolen here...almost across the board. AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS...all favor Rolen.

 

Defense - Rolen

No question.

 

Baserunning - Rolen

94 career steals compared to 9 for Ramirez.

 

Health - Ramirez

Slight edge to Ramirez, but both have had injury issues.

 

Age - Ramirez

Ramirez is 3 yrs. younger than Rolen.

 

Ramirez has been in the league 8 years. To say he hasn't entered his prime yet might be offbase. He may be right in the middle of his prime considering 2004 and 2005 were his best statistically speaking. Rolen has had his best years recently as well. How much does either player have left? Who knows?

 

And if you include this season's very small sample size, Ramirez's stats are on the slight decline...OPS, BA, OBP, SLG... are all down from 2004 to 2005 to 2006. Did Ramirez peak in 2004?

 

 

Rolen in a heartbeat.

I'd take the better player with better stats over a guy who is just a few years younger.

[K-Town]

There's a discussion about Edmonds and steroids on the "Rivalry" board. At the risk of getting Cub fans worked up (which isn't my intention), could A-ram be just as much of a suspect?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's a discussion about Edmonds and steroids on the "Rivalry" board. At the risk of getting Cub fans worked up (which isn't my intention), could A-ram be just as much of a suspect?

 

That thread was started as a joke, no one really thinks Edmonds does steroids.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Ramirez. He's better than Rolen, but he needs to keep his legs/groin healthy

 

There is nothing available out there to back up that statement.

And Ramirez's .189 BA to start this year isn't helping his case in this discussion.

 

OPS - Rolen

Career .891 for Rolen, .808 for Ramirez

 

Offense - Rolen

The numbers back up Rolen here...almost across the board. AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS...all favor Rolen.

 

Defense - Rolen

No question.

 

Baserunning - Rolen

94 career steals compared to 9 for Ramirez.

 

Health - Ramirez

Slight edge to Ramirez, but both have had injury issues.

 

Age - Ramirez

Ramirez is 3 yrs. younger than Rolen.

 

Ramirez has been in the league 8 years. To say he hasn't entered his prime yet might be offbase. He may be right in the middle of his prime considering 2004 and 2005 were his best statistically speaking. Rolen has had his best years recently as well. How much does either player have left? Who knows?

 

And if you include this season's very small sample size, Ramirez's stats are on the slight decline...OPS, BA, OBP, SLG... are all down from 2004 to 2005 to 2006. Did Ramirez peak in 2004?

 

 

Rolen in a heartbeat.

I'd take the better player with better stats over a guy who is just a few years younger.

 

If you use career numbers for similar players who are aged 31 and 27, it's almost always going to favor the 31 year old because they've had more of their prime years.

 

Last 3 years

 

Rolen: .289/.384/.533/.917

Ramirez: .296/.350/.532/.882

 

Rolen is the superior defensive player. Rolen has had the superior career so far. Going forward, I'd take Ramirez, because he's entering his prime while Rolen is leaving his in addition to the uncertainty that Rolen can regain his offensive prowess coming off a serious shoulder injury.

[elconq05]

If you use career numbers for similar players who are aged 31 and 27, it's almost always going to favor the 31 year old because they've had more of their prime years.

You are assuming Ramirez is entering his prime now. Over the last three seasons (inclucing this one), his numbers are on the decline.

Maybe Ramirez is leaving his prime as well? Maybe he peaked in 204? That kind of thing is hard to judge. There isn't a set number of years for a player's prime (could be long, could be short), nor is it set as to when they are in their prime. Some guys peak early and some peak late.

 

Last 3 years

 

Rolen: .289/.384/.533/.917

Ramirez: .296/.350/.532/.882

Do those numbers include Rolen's stats from last year's bad shoulder season? If so, that brings his 3-year average numbers down.

 

Rolen is the superior defensive player. Rolen has had the superior career so far. Going forward, I'd take Ramirez, because he's entering his prime while Rolen is leaving his in addition to the uncertainty that Rolen can regain his offensive prowess coming off a serious shoulder injury.

Why do you think Rolen is leaving his prime? He has shown no signs of slowing down.

 

I think Rolen has established early on that his shoulder is just fine. He's played every game so far, has put up good numbers, and says his shoulder feels good.

[Andy]

There's a discussion about Edmonds and steroids on the "Rivalry" board. At the risk of getting Cub fans worked up (which isn't my intention), could A-ram be just as much of a suspect?

Absolutely ridiculous. Does anyone who suffer an injury or two have to deal with this crap now? Ramirez's problems have stemmed from poor conditioning and swinging the bat 800 miles an hour, not from anything that would be related to steroids. And the fact that one of his best seasons was in 2005, a year in which steroids testing was around, doesn't help your case either.

[elconq05]

There's a discussion about Edmonds and steroids on the "Rivalry" board. At the risk of getting Cub fans worked up (which isn't my intention), could A-ram be just as much of a suspect?

Absolutely ridiculous. Does anyone who suffer an injury or two have to deal with this crap now? Ramirez's problems have stemmed from poor conditioning and swinging the bat 800 miles an hour, not from anything that would be related to steroids.

The question was raised because Edmonds was more or less accused of steroids in another thread because of his injury and horrible start. I think it's a perfectly acceptable question in response to the Edmonds thread considering Ramirez has nagging injuries and is off to a horrible start.

What's good for one is good for another.

 

By the way, are you a doctor?

 

And the fact that one of his best seasons was in 2005, a year in which steroids testing was around, doesn't help your case either.

You think the weak steroids policy they had in 2005 stopped many from using? The fact the policy was there, doesn't mean people didn't use or were less likely to use.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I pick Aramis because he will go on to hit 1327 homers and Rolen soon will be shipped off to resurrect the Duke lacrosse team. Everybody knows that.

[Chocolate Milk]

So after 10 pages we've found out that:

 

Cardinals fans want Rolen.

Cubs fans want Ramirez.

[elconq05]

So after 10 pages we've found out that:

 

Cardinals fans want Rolen.

Cubs fans want Ramirez.

 

Shocker.