Random Positive thoughts on Cubs

[Lefty]

1. Cardinals are not infallible

 

Had we signed Bigbie and Encarnacion this board would have melted down. Now that the Cards have signed Encarnacion more than one poster on this board has suggested that will make him great. Is that rational?

 

BP's metrics had the Cards about 5.5 games better than the Cubs last year. They have lost some key memebers, added some question marks and a full year of Scott Rolen. We can't compete with that?

 

2. Cubs a cinch to be better

 

At last year's stats Pierre would be about 20 runs better than Patterson.

 

Last year we had 21 games started by pitchers who were not among our top 6 starters. Those 21 starts had a 6.45 in 113 IPs. While most teams cannot find average starters, we can. If those 113 IPs would be filled with the four guys we have who pitched at the league average last year, Rusch, Williams, Wood and Miller, we'd save another 25 runs.

 

Even if Lee regresses to his 2003 or first five months of 2004 self, this team would still project to about 85 or 86 wins. That assumes Cedeno hits like Perez. That Murton hits like our collective leftfielder of 2005 (@.260, .318, .418). That our bullpen pitches like last year's version. I suspect the surprises will be to the upside. That leads into my final point...

 

3. Cubs may have already hit bottom

 

Last year was a train wreck and we still won 79 games. In this decade 7 teams have won divisions having won 79 games or fewer the year before (I am counting the 2000 Mariners who were not given a chance to tie for the division because of the Wild Card rules). Including divisional ties, thats 18% of divisional winners (7/39) making that climb. It happens all the time because variable performances are the rule.

 

Last night I saw a panel of three Chicago media guys pick the Cubs for 72, 75 and 78 wins. They don't do any analysis, they just reflect the zeitgeist. "Cubs won 79 games, the headlines are bad, the Sox are World Champs, let's subtract from 79." But they are starting from the low base that was the 2005 season. Like in the stock market, all the bad news is reflected in last year's record. While a 1991 Mets-style collapse is possible it is highly unlikely. The Cubs are much more likely to flirt with 90 wins. And if they get positive surprises like Wood or Prior pitching in April, Pierre hitting over .300, or Murton hitting like he did last year, we could have the 2004 Cardinals on our hands. BTW, the consensus on this board in the Spring of '04 was that the Cardinals were in serious decline. Full circle baby.

[UMFan83]

Good post, Pierre will make the team better, and most likely Murton will be better then Holla and co. in LF. But overall I still don't like the team that has been assembled. I sure hope I'm wrong though!

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

A dead rat in CF would make the team better. Sorry, Corey, but it's true.

[Yeti]

A dead rat in CF would make the team better. Sorry, Corey, but it's true.

nice :roll:

[Jehrico]

I don't see how we could be picked to win fewer games this year. As much as I think Hendry failed to have as good of an off season as he was capable of (considering talent availalble to be traded, roster spots open, and amount of cash available to throw at the market), the team is improved from last season. And correct me if I'm wrong, as bad as last years team was, if you look at what the runs scored vs runs allowed was last year, we should have projected to finish .500 last year. I don't like the team, but I don't think there's a doubt that, barring incredibly bad luck and catastrophe, that we should at least project to being a .500 team this year.

[jyoung55]

Unlike others, I like this team. I really think they have a shot of surprising people just like my favorite college basketball team - North Carolina. We could be in for some surprises that could make this a very rewarding season, if not, oh well, we weren't supposed to be that good anyways.

[cubbieinexile]

Random positive thoughts hmm. . .

 

We're not the Marlins

[Yeti]

Random positive thoughts hmm. . .

 

We're not the Marlins

:lmao:

[Brian]

Random positive thoughts hmm. . .

 

We're not the Marlins

 

yeah must suck to have 2 WS trophies in my lifetime.

[A New Era]

Random positive thought. .

 

Lots of good suprises?

 

Wood

Miller

Williamson

Howry

Eyre

Pierre

Murton

Marshall

Guzman

[Scott G. F.]

Random Positive thoughts

 

It's a brand new year and no game has counted yet.

Wood and Prior don't seem to have "long term" injuries.

We have a lead off hitter.

Jauque Jones will suprise the Nay sayers with his LC, RC hitting, perfect for Wrigley!

The battles will not be with the Cards and Astros, but with Milwaukee.

I believe this team will be much more likeable then the past 2 years, less crying.

The strength will be the Pen.

This team will have a momentum early in the spring and carry it all through the season.

 

As a fan I going to enjoy this year for what it is and not for what it isn't.

 

My advice, enjoy game 1 as much as game 162 and you wont go wrong.

[Blueheart05]

I'm very optimistic about this team.

 

Beginning in May, this team will have a chance to throw dominant pitching at the NL:

 

Zambrano

Prior

Wood

Miller

 

If the starters can't go beyond 6 innings, the 7th- 9th innings could be very secure.

 

I think they will get on base more often than last year and wont be so reliant on the homerun.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I like parts of this team. Jones sucks. You'll see. When Prior and Wood are back I'll be a happy camper. If Miller comes back as filthy as he can be, I'm going to be super happy. Maddux looked pretty good this spring. Scott Eyre is awesome.

 

Aramis and Lee are going to be awesome this year. Barrett should be much improved defensively and fundamentally. Cedeno is going to tank offensively and his throws to first scare me, but I'm not worried, b/c we have Neifi to save us. Murton is going to rake.

[rjchapma]

We needed pitching and we didn't get pitching. If we didn't rely on Prior and Wood again and picked up another starter yes are team would be better. Were improved, but still not gonna do anything against the Cardinals and will compete against the Stros and Brew Crew.

[Blueheart05]

We needed pitching and we didn't get pitching. If we didn't rely on Prior and Wood again and picked up another starter yes are team would be better. Were improved, but still not gonna do anything against the Cardinals and will compete against the Stros and Brew Crew.

.

 

I thought this was the random positive thoughts thread...

[rjchapma]

I said we improved others are bashing are bad parts of the team too.

[rjchapma]

On the postive point though we had two solid bullpen pick ups and Pierre was an excellent pick up and Jones won't hurt us.

[AcesHigh]

Murton is a huge improvement over whatever we had in left field last year :D .

[rjchapma]

oh agree about that. I really think you guys think to downly about Jaque Jones he really wont be that bad hes like Burnitz with more speed and a better fielder. I liked Burnitz last year he wasnt bad and was a cheap right feilder.

[goonys evil twin]

oh agree about that. I really think you guys think to downly about Jaque Jones he really wont be that bad hes like Burnitz with more speed and a better fielder. I liked Burnitz last year he wasnt bad and was a cheap right feilder.

 

Burnitz sucked. The Cubs RF production was about 14th or 15th in the NL (that's 16 teams). The reason I am down on Jones is because he's no better than Burnitz. That increase in speed doesn't mean a thing unless in translates into better production, which it never has.

[rjchapma]

Burnitz was better than alot of guys in our starting line up. We didn't have much more to play with out there and I think we got more out of what I expected out of him. To add to that I think that Jones is the same way and if he puts up those same numbers they aren't to bad.

[goonys evil twin]

Burnitz was better than alot of guys in our starting line up. We didn't have much more to play with out there and I think we got more out of what I expected out of him. To add to that I think that Jones is the same way and if he puts up those same numbers they aren't to bad.

 

They are too bad. Who cares if Burnitz was better than Neifi Perez? That's not how you rank players. You compare players with other guys at their position. Of course a RF is going to be better than your typical CF or SS. That doesn't mean a thing. Burnitz sucked because Burnitz was one of the worst RF in the league, and the Cubs got some of the worst production from RF in the league. Jones is no better, so unless you're happy with way below average produciton, you can't be happy with Jones.

[rjchapma]

I guess I am then because im someone who is realistic and knows we can't have a all-star studded team. So when we have an average to above average right feilder Im ok with it. sorry but thats the way I feel.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I guess I am then because im someone who is realistic and knows we can't have a all-star studded team. So when we have an average to above average right feilder Im ok with it. sorry but thats the way I feel.

 

Burnitz wasn't average to above average. He was below average for a RF.

 

His numbers were horrible!

[goonys evil twin]

I guess I am then because im someone who is realistic and knows we can't have a all-star studded team. So when we have an average to above average right feilder Im ok with it. sorry but thats the way I feel.

 

He's not average to above average. He's below average. He's bad. Bottom of the league production from RF is not a good thing, and that's what Burnitz brought last year. It's not wanting an all-star laden team to want competent production out of RF. Above average is not all star. And neither Jones nor Burnitz are going to give the Cubs above average production out of RF. Quit trying to pretend I'm being unrealistic by wanting something more than bottom of the barrell, which is what Burnitz brought last year.