Grace: Sammy PROBABLY used roids

[harrdb00]

It is almost impossible to believe Sammy didn't use some enhancement (HGH, roids or whatever), and it seems likely that Julian Martinez was the only witness/accomplice.

 

Why?

 

Let me preface my answer by saying (a) I'm not a Sammy-basher and never have been, and (b) my reasons have been debated here ad nauseaum ... I don't have much to add because I'm just a normal long-time Cub fan, like you, probably, and many others here on NSBB. I do not have any inside info.

 

Why do I think he took something? It's not just his Chico Ensuela act in front of Congress ... it's not just the fact that he's a known cheater (too bad he didn't know that cork is at best a psychological advantage) ... it's not just the astonishing spurt in his HR rate ... it's not just the fact that the power surge happened to coincide with others who are under heavy suspicion, Bonds, Giambi, McGwire, etc. ... it's not just the dramatic change in his appearance (including quite a bit of acne) by '98 ... it's not just that in 2001 he hit 64 HR and didn't steal a single base (going from a 30-30 guy to a 64-0 guy is going to justifiably raise a few eyebrows) ... it's not any of the above in isolation, it's the whole thing. I want to believe that no Barry-asterisk belongs in front of any of Sammy's monster years, but at some point as circumstantial evidence piles up it becomes awfully compelling.

 

What follows is pure speculation on my part -- just observations of how Sammy evolved over time in the 90's. Please don't ask for documentation, web links, etc. because all I have is my memory. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong on the facts I'm sure.

 

I've followed Sammy's career since he was a skinny kid with the White Sox. I believe he legitimately turned himself into a power hitter, and a very good one, without any artificial help. In '96 he was leading the NL in HRs when he was beaned in late August by a nobody named Mark Hutton (who had no idea where the ball was going that day). Just like the Torres beaning in '04, Sammy wasn't the same when he returned -- and he also stumbled out of the gate in '97 (of course he wasn't the only Cub to stumble out of the gate in '97). Now Sammy also had contract extension negotiations in '97, and also happened to start showing the prodigious power stroke to the opposite field later that year (prior to that he had been a predominantly classic pull HR hitter). He also was visibly bulking up later that year -- perhaps someone else can back me up on that observation. All coincidental? Sure, it's possible. Probable? Doubtful.

 

I really think '97 was the year he started using something, mid-season -- not the '97-'98 off-season as is commonly assumed. Again, pure conjecture on my part, I admit.

 

Well put. I, too, am not a Sammy basher, but the circumstantial evidence is compelling.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I never saw Sammy take the stuff, but come on. Take of the Cubbie blue glasses for a bit and look at him objectively. His spike in HR production occurring while he was entering his prime was coinciding with the fact that he added an insane amount of muscle in a very short period of time. He didn't fail tests because he wasn't given any. I loved Sammy as much as the next guy, but there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he was juiced.

[SouthSideRyan]

His spike in HR production occurring while he was entering his prime was coinciding with the fact that he added an insane amount of muscle in a very short period of time.

 

Let's revers that. Him adding a lot of muscle happened to coincide with the prime of his career where his HR spike occurred.

 

He didn't fail tests because he wasn't given any.

 

So you're the one in charge of the tests!!

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Who was tested for steroids during the "juiced" era?

[CubinNY]

Here are some Totals:

Roger Maris

Year   HR   HR/AB
58      28     21
59      16     27
60      39     13
61      61     10
62      33     18
63      23     14
64      26     20
65       8     19

Mikey Mantle

Year   HR   HR/AB
54      27     20
55      37     14
56      52     10
57      34     14
58      42     12
59      31     17
60      40     13
61      54     10
62      30     13
63      15     11
64      35     13

Willie Mays

Year   HR   HR/AB
54      41     14
55      51     11
56      36     16
57      35     17
58      29     21
59      34     14
60      29     13
61      40     16
62      49     13
63      38     16 
64      47     14
65      52     11
66      37     15
67      22     22

 

Those numbers are from the prime of careers for three "sluggers" of a bye-gone era. I think we can all agree they probably weren't on the juice, unless the juice includes beer, chew, and uppers.

 

Maris's HR/AB totals swung from 10 to 27. Mantle was a little more consistent but his swung from 10-20. And Mays's swung from 11 to 22.

 

Maris and Mantle never approached those numbers from 1961 and Mays had his best HR/AB year at the very end of his prime.

 

Given the day and age in which we live with enhanced off-season workout regims and better nutrition, I see nothing out of the ordinary for Sammy's prime of career numbers.

 

As an aside, I hope I never have to read "Take of the Cubbie blue glasses". Take off your convential wisdom BS glasses for a bit.

 

Edit: I made a mistake in my original analysis> The lower number the more HRs per AB. So Mays tied his career number in 65 when he was clearly on the downslope of his prime. However, Mantle and Maris had their best years in 61 during the first "the chase" of Ruth.

Edited March 26, 2006 by CubinNY

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Here are some Totals:

Roger Maris

Year   HR   HR/AB
58      28     21
59      16     27
60      39     13
61      61     10
62      33     18
63      23     14
64      26     20
65       8     19

Mikey Mantle

Year   HR   HR/AB
54      27     20
55      37     14
56      52     10
57      34     14
58      42     12
59      31     17
60      40     13
61      54     10
62      30     13
63      15     11
64      35     13

Willie Mays

Year   HR   HR/AB
54      41     14
55      51     11
56      36     16
57      35     17
58      29     21
59      34     14
60      29     13
61      40     16
62      49     13
63      38     16 
64      47     14
65      52     11
66      37     15
67      22     22

 

Those numbers are from the prime of careers for three "sluggers" of a bye-gone era. I think we can all agree they probably weren't on the juice, unless the juice includes beer, chew, and uppers.

 

Maris's HR/AB totals swung from 10 to 27. Mantle was a little more consistent but his swung from 10-20. And Mays's swung from 11 to 22.

 

Maris and Mantle never approached those numbers from 1961 and Mays had his best HR/AB year at the very end of his prime.

 

Given the day and age in which we live with enhanced off-season workout regims and better nutrition, I see nothing out of the ordinary for Sammy's prime of career numbers.

 

As an aside, I hope I never have to read "Take of the Cubbie blue glasses". Take off your convential wisdom BS glasses for a bit.

 

That's an excellent post. Sammy's spike, while amazing is not unprecedented. It comes with suspicion because of what we know about the era in which he played.

 

I'm not saying Sammy did or didn't juice, but frankly other than someone using the "look" test which is probably the most unreliable way to detect a user, we really have no compelling evidence whatsoever.

[snoodmonger]

Here are some Totals:

Roger Maris

Year   HR   HR/AB
58      28     21
59      16     27
60      39     13
61      61     10
62      33     18
63      23     14
64      26     20
65       8     19

Mikey Mantle

Year   HR   HR/AB
54      27     20
55      37     14
56      52     10
57      34     14
58      42     12
59      31     17
60      40     13
61      54     10
62      30     13
63      15     11
64      35     13

Willie Mays

Year   HR   HR/AB
54      41     14
55      51     11
56      36     16
57      35     17
58      29     21
59      34     14
60      29     13
61      40     16
62      49     13
63      38     16 
64      47     14
65      52     11
66      37     15
67      22     22

 

Those numbers are from the prime of careers for three "sluggers" of a bye-gone era. I think we can all agree they probably weren't on the juice, unless the juice includes beer, chew, and uppers.

 

Maris's HR/AB totals swung from 10 to 27. Mantle was a little more consistent but his swung from 10-20. And Mays's swung from 11 to 22.

 

Maris and Mantle never approached those numbers from 1961 and Mays had his best HR/AB year at the very end of his prime.

 

Given the day and age in which we live with enhanced off-season workout regims and better nutrition, I see nothing out of the ordinary for Sammy's prime of career numbers.

 

As an aside, I hope I never have to read "Take of the Cubbie blue glasses". Take off your convential wisdom BS glasses for a bit.

 

Excellent post, CubinNY. I don't know if Sammy juiced or not, but it's nice to see circumstantial evidence from either side more compelling than, "Look at his head size and acne."

[frostwyrm]

How many of you people have ever successfully done a serious musclebuilding weight program? Of the people I know who have done so none of them believe a 30+ year old man could stay as big as Sosa for 6 months while playing 5-6 baseball games per week at a peak level of performance. I have a lot of experience with weightlifting and I've known since the late 90's that sluggers were juicing, and all along I've been hearing protestations from non-lifters that I have no proof. You want proof, get over 30 years of age and bulk up to a football level and see what it takes and see how much recovery time is required. Sosa had some chemical help of some sort. There is no doubt in my mind.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

You don't see too many insults for having convential wisdom, now do you? I'll take that.

 

I don't see how you can see nothing out of the ordinary in regards to Sammy's spike considering it defines out of the ordinary.

[CubinNY]

.

 

I don't see how you can see nothing out of the ordinary in regards to Sammy's spike considering it defines out of the ordinary.

 

Only when one wishes to ignore evidence to the contrary. Aside from Hank Aaron you can look up any slugger's numbers and see very dramatic fluctions from year to year in their prime.

 

Sammy's growth is not out of the ordinary for a world class athelete. Sammy came to this country a rail thin 19 year old.

 

I've lifed weights and I use to be a personal trainer. I've seen guys maintain rock hard chissled bodies into their mid 40s. Even so, maybe Sammy is a freak of nature? Maybe Sammy is a jucer?

 

I don't know. But not one person in this thread has demonstrated any evidence that Sammy's power growth is either A)out of the ordinary or B) chemically enhanced.

 

All I've read is "Sammy looked like a WWF wrestler in 2001", "He used a corked bat, therefore he used steriods", and my personal fav, "Look at his head". Fergie mentioned his HR spike, then I show evidence to the contrary that shows it is not out of the ordinary. Whatever, believe what you want.

 

As for me, I will remain undeceded.

[CubinNY]

Just for S & Gs here are Babe Ruth's numbers. They make Sammy, McGuire and Bonds look like pikers.

Year	HR  HR/AB
20	 54	  8
21	 59	  9
22	 35	 12
23	 41	 13
24	 46	 12
25	 25	 14
26	 47	 11
27	 60	 9
28	 54	 10
29	 46	 11
30	 49	 11
31	 46	 12
32	 41	 11
33	 34	 14

 

Not much fluctuation, but Ruth was a true freak.

[rocket]

we don't have to be suspicious of older players though, they loved the game too much to cheat.

[FergieJ31]

Here are some Totals:

Roger Maris

Year   HR   HR/AB
58      28     21
59      16     27
60      39     13
61      61     10
62      33     18
63      23     14
64      26     20
65       8     19

Mikey Mantle

Year   HR   HR/AB
54      27     20
55      37     14
56      52     10
57      34     14
58      42     12
59      31     17
60      40     13
61      54     10
62      30     13
63      15     11
64      35     13

Willie Mays

Year   HR   HR/AB
54      41     14
55      51     11
56      36     16
57      35     17
58      29     21
59      34     14
60      29     13
61      40     16
62      49     13
63      38     16 
64      47     14
65      52     11
66      37     15
67      22     22

 

...

Maris's HR/AB totals swung from 10 to 27. Mantle was a little more consistent but his swung from 10-20. And Mays's swung from 11 to 22.

...

 

Well it's sort of beating a dead horse -- like you said we're all going to believe what we want -- but of the stats you posted, only Maris' AB/HR jump from '59 to '60 rivals Sammy's jump from '97 to '98. Maris more than doubled his HR rate; Sammy nearly doubled his. But Maris also moved from a cavernous park in KC in '59 to Yankee Stadium in '60 -- huge ballpark effect. Sammy obviously played both '97 and '98 at Wrigley.

 

Just to be clear, my post wasn't just about HR rate and I'm not saying his spurt was unprecedented in baseball history. But I suspect Sammy's spurt in the late 90's would be in the top 5-10 instances of all time, depending on how we measure -- and THAT is significant, I hope most would agree. As I said, the HR rate is just one aspect of the big picture.

[Soul]

Bottom line: there is not yet enough proof to keep Sammy out of the Hall on the basis of steroid use.

[SouthSideRyan]

You don't see too many insults for having convential wisdom, now do you? I'll take that.

 

I don't see how you can see nothing out of the ordinary in regards to Sammy's spike considering it defines out of the ordinary.

 

Joe Morgan and Dusty Baker use conventional baseball wisdom. There's your insult.