well, clines doesn't get it

[TheDude]

I guess it's really difficult when examining people's quotes to not reach beyond the quote, because I don't get all the criticism.

 

All of the people faulting Clines for not discussing walks are using purely out-of-context arguments. Who knows what the full context of the quote was?

 

We know he was discussing hitting, and the lack of hits with RISP last year, which was dead on accurate. Personally, I'll wait until the quote contains some mention of walks before I characterize his stance on it, or I see the full context of the quote.

[RynoRules]

In Clines' defenseThe Cubs did suck with RISP last season, and it's a reason why they didn't score that many runs. but that's hard to improve, it's mostly luck.

 

Walks, on the other hand, are easier to improve. And should have been a focus during Hendry's offseason.

 

It's not that hard to improve on what we did last year, Rocket.

 

Do you remember the countless AB's where there were RISP, and whoever was up there would get anxious and swing at the first pitch and hit into a double play? All the friggin time?

 

Good point. Sort of makes me think that walks and "clutch hitting" go hand-in-hand. The more patient you are in your approach, the more likely you are to walk and/or get a pitch you can drive.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Ramirez is pretty patient.

 

2005 NL average walk rate = .0845

2005 Aramis Ramirez walk rate = .0694

 

2005 NL average K/BB ratio = 2.01

2005 Aramis Ramirez K/BB ratio = 1.71

 

I don't think Ramirez is patient at the plate. He's pretty average, IMO.

[CubinNY]

I guess it's really difficult when examining people's quotes to not reach beyond the quote, because I don't get all the criticism.

 

All of the people faulting Clines for not discussing walks are using purely out-of-context arguments. Who knows what the full context of the quote was?

 

We know he was discussing hitting, and the lack of hits with RISP last year, which was dead on accurate. Personally, I'll wait until the quote contains some mention of walks before I characterize his stance on it, or I see the full context of the quote.

 

Sorry, too late. You took a stance by posting in this thread.

 

Your stance appears to be that we shouldn't criticize Clines becuase we don't know the whole story.

 

Thanks for the words of caution.

[USSoccer]

I guess it's really difficult when examining people's quotes to not reach beyond the quote, because I don't get all the criticism.

 

All of the people faulting Clines for not discussing walks are using purely out-of-context arguments. Who knows what the full context of the quote was?

 

We know he was discussing hitting, and the lack of hits with RISP last year, which was dead on accurate. Personally, I'll wait until the quote contains some mention of walks before I characterize his stance on it, or I see the full context of the quote.

 

I think that given the body of quotes from this coaching staff on hitting, walks, patience and pitch selection, one can safely say the context of this comment by Clines means very little.

[CuseCubFan69]

Ramirez is pretty patient.

 

2005 NL average walk rate = .0845

2005 Aramis Ramirez walk rate = .0694

 

I'm curious on how many times ARam swings and misses/or fouls and if this effects his walk rate. A lot of hitters foul off or miss a pitch and perhaps ARam doesn't do that as much thus skewing those numbers.

[USSoccer]

Ramirez is pretty patient.

 

2005 NL average walk rate = .0845

2005 Aramis Ramirez walk rate = .0694

 

2005 NL average K/BB ratio = 2.01

2005 Aramis Ramirez K/BB ratio = 1.71

 

I don't think Ramirez is patient at the plate. He's pretty average, IMO.

 

I don't know. He may not walk as often as he could, but he also does not strike out very often.

[badgercub]

Ramirez is pretty patient.

 

2005 NL average walk rate = .0845

2005 Aramis Ramirez walk rate = .0694

 

2005 NL average K/BB ratio = 2.01

2005 Aramis Ramirez K/BB ratio = 1.71

 

I don't think Ramirez is patient at the plate. He's pretty average, IMO.

 

I don't know. He may not walk as often as he could, but he also does not strike out very often.

 

I wonder where he ranks in pitches per PA? Is he seeing a lot of pitches, fouling off bad pitches until he gets something he can handle? Is there a difference between plate discipline and patience at the plate? I really don't think there is, I just think Aram like Vlad Guerrero is talented enough to make contact with balls outside the strike zone and either get a hit or foul it off to keep his AB alive.

[rocket]

Aramis saw 3.61 P/PA, which ranks him 104th in the big leagues.

[CuseCubFan69]

Aramis saw 3.61 P/PA, which ranks him 104th in the big leagues.

 

Is there a stat that has swings and misses? It seems like ARam's P/PA is effected by the fact that he doesn't swing and miss that much. He also may be really good at hitting his pitch when he sees it.

[badgercub]

Aramis saw 3.61 P/PA, which ranks him 104th in the big leagues.

 

Is there a stat that has swings and misses? It seems like ARam's P/PA is effected by the fact that he doesn't swing and miss that much. He also may be really good at hitting his pitch when he sees it.

 

Last year it really helped having DLee on base in front of him alot, he probably saw better pitches early in the count?

[USSoccer]

Aramis saw 3.61 P/PA, which ranks him 104th in the big leagues.

 

Is there a stat that has swings and misses? It seems like ARam's P/PA is effected by the fact that he doesn't swing and miss that much. He also may be really good at hitting his pitch when he sees it.

 

Last year it really helped having DLee on base in front of him alot, he probably saw better pitches early in the count?

 

 

Aramis is an example of a player that doesn't need to see a ton of pitches per AB. He's a good contact hitter, and a good power hitter. He can hit for average. He slugs. About the only thing he doesn't do exceptionally well is run, which he emphatically cannot do.

 

Realize that Ramirez is the best offensive baseball player on the Cubs in 2006, Lee's "show me" year pending. He's very good. That he doesn't see closer to 4p/ab on average nonwithstanding.

[TheDude]

I guess it's really difficult when examining people's quotes to not reach beyond the quote, because I don't get all the criticism.

 

All of the people faulting Clines for not discussing walks are using purely out-of-context arguments. Who knows what the full context of the quote was?

 

We know he was discussing hitting, and the lack of hits with RISP last year, which was dead on accurate. Personally, I'll wait until the quote contains some mention of walks before I characterize his stance on it, or I see the full context of the quote.

 

Sorry, too late. You took a stance by posting in this thread.

 

Your stance appears to be that we shouldn't criticize Clines becuase we don't know the whole story.

 

I look at the quote and agree that last year's team couldn't hit with RISP. He's absolutely right. He is not talking walks, and I have no idea if a reporter asked him a question about getting on base or lack of walks, or just a question about lack of clutch hitting.

 

Now, if the quote had an article linked with more detail, maybe. If he was asked a question about poor OBP and he dodged it, then I'm with you. But what if he was just asked a question about lack of clutch hitting last year? Why would his response include walks at that point?

 

All I'm saying is an unlinked quote out-of-context isn't something worth dogging a guy over.

[rawaction]

Aramis saw 3.61 P/PA, which ranks him 104th in the big leagues.

 

Is there a stat that has swings and misses? It seems like ARam's P/PA is effected by the fact that he doesn't swing and miss that much. He also may be really good at hitting his pitch when he sees it.

 

Last year it really helped having DLee on base in front of him alot, he probably saw better pitches early in the count?

 

Aramis has always been a first fastball type of hitter. If he gets a heater early, he's looking to hit it hard. I think he is a patient hitter, that just doesn't walk. He looks for pitches to hit. He doesn't K much, so it's not like he's chasing bad pitches. He has a good grasp of the strike zone and recognizes which pitches he can hit.

 

Or just listen to USSoccer

[sonofsamiam]

Realize that Ramirez is the best offensive baseball player on the Cubs in 2006, Lee's "show me" year pending. He's very good. That he doesn't see closer to 4p/ab on average nonwithstanding.

 

I disagree with this -- here's why:

 

OPS+: Lee

 

2001: 113

2002: 131

2003: 135

2004: 114

2005: 177

 

OPS+: Ramirez

 

2001: 125

2002: 069

2003: 107

2004: 136

2005: 137

 

Even taking Lee's '05 spike out of the equation completely (which is sort of ridiculous), he's got a leg up on A-Ram.

[USSoccer]

Realize that Ramirez is the best offensive baseball player on the Cubs in 2006, Lee's "show me" year pending. He's very good. That he doesn't see closer to 4p/ab on average nonwithstanding.

 

I disagree with this -- here's why:

 

OPS+: Lee

 

2001: 113

2002: 131

2003: 135

2004: 114

2005: 177

 

OPS+: Ramirez

 

2001: 125

2002: 069

2003: 107

2004: 136

2005: 137

 

Even taking Lee's '05 spike out of the equation completely (which is sort of ridiculous), he's got a leg up on A-Ram.

 

So you weigh the season and a half that Aramis was injured against him? In years that both were healthy he's quite a bit better.

[sonofsamiam]

Realize that Ramirez is the best offensive baseball player on the Cubs in 2006, Lee's "show me" year pending. He's very good. That he doesn't see closer to 4p/ab on average nonwithstanding.

 

I disagree with this -- here's why:

 

OPS+: Lee

 

2001: 113

2002: 131

2003: 135

2004: 114

2005: 177

 

OPS+: Ramirez

 

2001: 125

2002: 069

2003: 107

2004: 136

2005: 137

 

Even taking Lee's '05 spike out of the equation completely (which is sort of ridiculous), he's got a leg up on A-Ram.

 

So you weigh the season and a half that Aramis was injured against him? In years that both were healthy he's quite a bit better.

 

He was better in '01 and (especially) '04, yes. Lee was far better in '05, as we know. And Lee's '02-'03 are right there with A-Ram's '04-'05. Also, it seems a bit unfair to punish Lee for his durability.

 

Over their careers, Lee has a better OPS+ and a better RC/27. A-Ram's great, but up to now I don't see him as being better offensively. I guess it just seems weird to me when people presume that Lee didn't really do anything until last year. He had some very good seasons in a terrible hitters park, especially for a guy with power to the gaps.

[USSoccer]

Realize that Ramirez is the best offensive baseball player on the Cubs in 2006, Lee's "show me" year pending. He's very good. That he doesn't see closer to 4p/ab on average nonwithstanding.

 

I disagree with this -- here's why:

 

OPS+: Lee

 

2001: 113

2002: 131

2003: 135

2004: 114

2005: 177

 

OPS+: Ramirez

 

2001: 125

2002: 069

2003: 107

2004: 136

2005: 137

 

Even taking Lee's '05 spike out of the equation completely (which is sort of ridiculous), he's got a leg up on A-Ram.

 

So you weigh the season and a half that Aramis was injured against him? In years that both were healthy he's quite a bit better.

 

He was better in '01 and (especially) '04, yes. Lee was far better in '05, as we know. And Lee's '02-'03 are right there with A-Ram's '04-'05. Also, it seems a bit unfair to punish Lee for his durability.

 

Over their careers, Lee has a better OPS+ and a better RC/27. A-Ram's great, but up to now I don't see him as being better offensively. I guess it just seems weird to me when people presume that Lee didn't really do anything until last year. He had some very good seasons in a terrible hitters park, especially for a guy with power to the gaps.

 

It's not a question of durability. Durability speaks to who is the better overall player, which is Lee. If you're talking about who the best offensive talent is on the Cubs, it's Ramirez. He would have had a better season that Lee had in the power and RBI catagories last season had he not gotten hurt.

[sonofsamiam]

Realize that Ramirez is the best offensive baseball player on the Cubs in 2006, Lee's "show me" year pending. He's very good. That he doesn't see closer to 4p/ab on average nonwithstanding.

 

I disagree with this -- here's why:

 

OPS+: Lee

 

2001: 113

2002: 131

2003: 135

2004: 114

2005: 177

 

OPS+: Ramirez

 

2001: 125

2002: 069

2003: 107

2004: 136

2005: 137

 

Even taking Lee's '05 spike out of the equation completely (which is sort of ridiculous), he's got a leg up on A-Ram.

 

So you weigh the season and a half that Aramis was injured against him? In years that both were healthy he's quite a bit better.

 

He was better in '01 and (especially) '04, yes. Lee was far better in '05, as we know. And Lee's '02-'03 are right there with A-Ram's '04-'05. Also, it seems a bit unfair to punish Lee for his durability.

 

Over their careers, Lee has a better OPS+ and a better RC/27. A-Ram's great, but up to now I don't see him as being better offensively. I guess it just seems weird to me when people presume that Lee didn't really do anything until last year. He had some very good seasons in a terrible hitters park, especially for a guy with power to the gaps.

 

It's not a question of durability. Durability speaks to who is the better overall player, which is Lee. If you're talking about who the best offensive talent is on the Cubs, it's Ramirez. He would have had a better season that Lee had in the power and RBI catagories last season had he not gotten hurt.

 

Are you serious? Really? Lee had 99 extra base hits last year, which is tied for 16 all-time. Aramis, projected to the same number of games, would have had 78. Fewer home runs projected, as well.

 

Lee had a nearly .100 point advantage in slugging to Aramis.

 

RBIs, yes, A-Ram had a slightly better rate per game than Lee. I'm sure some of this had to do with Lee and his +.400 OBP being on in front of him, of course.

[USSoccer]

Realize that Ramirez is the best offensive baseball player on the Cubs in 2006, Lee's "show me" year pending. He's very good. That he doesn't see closer to 4p/ab on average nonwithstanding.

 

I disagree with this -- here's why:

 

OPS+: Lee

 

2001: 113

2002: 131

2003: 135

2004: 114

2005: 177

 

OPS+: Ramirez

 

2001: 125

2002: 069

2003: 107

2004: 136

2005: 137

 

Even taking Lee's '05 spike out of the equation completely (which is sort of ridiculous), he's got a leg up on A-Ram.

 

So you weigh the season and a half that Aramis was injured against him? In years that both were healthy he's quite a bit better.

 

He was better in '01 and (especially) '04, yes. Lee was far better in '05, as we know. And Lee's '02-'03 are right there with A-Ram's '04-'05. Also, it seems a bit unfair to punish Lee for his durability.

 

Over their careers, Lee has a better OPS+ and a better RC/27. A-Ram's great, but up to now I don't see him as being better offensively. I guess it just seems weird to me when people presume that Lee didn't really do anything until last year. He had some very good seasons in a terrible hitters park, especially for a guy with power to the gaps.

 

It's not a question of durability. Durability speaks to who is the better overall player, which is Lee. If you're talking about who the best offensive talent is on the Cubs, it's Ramirez. He would have had a better season that Lee had in the power and RBI catagories last season had he not gotten hurt.

 

Are you serious? Really? Lee had 99 extra base hits last year, which is tied for 16 all-time. Aramis, projected to the same number of games, would have had 78. Fewer home runs projected, as well.

 

Lee had a nearly .100 point advantage in slugging to Aramis.

 

RBIs, yes, A-Ram had a slightly better rate per game than Lee. I'm sure some of this had to do with Lee and his +.400 OBP being on in front of him, of course.

 

What were their numbers the day Aramis got hurt? Aramis had more HR's and more RBI. The projections are skewed by the fact that Ramirez sucked in April and struggled in May. He was unreal in June and July, and was continuing that play into August when he got hurt.

[Guest]

Ramirez is pretty patient.

 

2005 NL average walk rate = .0845

2005 Aramis Ramirez walk rate = .0694

 

I'm curious on how many times ARam swings and misses/or fouls and if this effects his walk rate. A lot of hitters foul off or miss a pitch and perhaps ARam doesn't do that as much thus skewing those numbers.

There is a strong correlation between a player's swing/miss ratio (or contact percentage) and his strikeout rate. There's also a pretty strong relationship between a player's take/swing ratio and his walk rate. Some pitch seqence data for Aramis over the past few years, as well as the average numbers for third basemen in 2005:

 

            CP%    T/S      B%     CS%     SS%     FB%     FC%
3B Avg.   81.0%   1.20   36.9%   16.8%    8.1%   16.8%   19.8%
2005      81.8%   1.00   35.9%   12.9%    8.5%   18.6%   22.2%
2004      83.3%   0.96   35.9%   11.9%    8.3%   20.0%   22.4%
2003      80.4%   0.93   34.8%   12.3%   10.1%   20.6%   21.1%

(Contact percentage, Take/Swing ratio, and % of pitches that resulted in balls, called strikes, swinging strikes, foul balls, and fair contact.)

 

Aramis is generally less patient that other third basemen, swinging at more pitches than he takes. He makes contact at pretty a similar rate, though.

[rawaction]

I don't know how you can interpret numbers in anyway to show that Ramirez was even close to Derrek Lee last year. Lee has been better in their careers. Ramirez has more talent and upside being that he's a few years younger.

 

For the record, I expect both to post an OPS over .950 this year. Who's most productive remains to be seen.

[sonofsamiam]

Realize that Ramirez is the best offensive baseball player on the Cubs in 2006, Lee's "show me" year pending. He's very good. That he doesn't see closer to 4p/ab on average nonwithstanding.

 

I disagree with this -- here's why:

 

OPS+: Lee

 

2001: 113

2002: 131

2003: 135

2004: 114

2005: 177

 

OPS+: Ramirez

 

2001: 125

2002: 069

2003: 107

2004: 136

2005: 137

 

Even taking Lee's '05 spike out of the equation completely (which is sort of ridiculous), he's got a leg up on A-Ram.

 

So you weigh the season and a half that Aramis was injured against him? In years that both were healthy he's quite a bit better.

 

He was better in '01 and (especially) '04, yes. Lee was far better in '05, as we know. And Lee's '02-'03 are right there with A-Ram's '04-'05. Also, it seems a bit unfair to punish Lee for his durability.

 

Over their careers, Lee has a better OPS+ and a better RC/27. A-Ram's great, but up to now I don't see him as being better offensively. I guess it just seems weird to me when people presume that Lee didn't really do anything until last year. He had some very good seasons in a terrible hitters park, especially for a guy with power to the gaps.

 

It's not a question of durability. Durability speaks to who is the better overall player, which is Lee. If you're talking about who the best offensive talent is on the Cubs, it's Ramirez. He would have had a better season that Lee had in the power and RBI catagories last season had he not gotten hurt.

 

Are you serious? Really? Lee had 99 extra base hits last year, which is tied for 16 all-time. Aramis, projected to the same number of games, would have had 78. Fewer home runs projected, as well.

 

Lee had a nearly .100 point advantage in slugging to Aramis.

 

RBIs, yes, A-Ram had a slightly better rate per game than Lee. I'm sure some of this had to do with Lee and his +.400 OBP being on in front of him, of course.

 

What were their numbers the day Aramis got hurt? Aramis had more HR's and more RBI. The projections are skewed by the fact that Ramirez sucked in April and struggled in May. He was unreal in June and July, and was continuing that play into August when he got hurt.

 

First, you've switched the criteria from "better offensively" to using only counting numbers (HRs and RBI), and including RBI, which has a lot to do with players other than the hitter.

 

Second, you absolve Aramis of a lousy start. Would you do the same for Lee's lousy starts of the past? I'm thinking not.

 

Third, yes, Ramirez was hot in June and July, to the tune of 1.075 and 1.038 OPS. However, Lee was hotter in those months -- 1.171 and 1.048 OPS, respectively.

 

Fourth, Ramirez had an OPS of .795 in August, in 81 AB. Lee maintained an OPS of 1.000.

 

Fifth, when Ramirez went down, Lee had a 37-31 advantage in HR, and was behind him by 1 RBI, 92-91. And again, I maintain that Lee's hefty OBP, batting in front of Aramis, as compared to the meager OBPs of the guys batting ahead of Lee, had a lot to do with that.

 

Seriously, there's no way anyone can objectively argue that Aramis was better offensively last year.

[CuseCubFan69]

Ramirez is pretty patient.

 

2005 NL average walk rate = .0845

2005 Aramis Ramirez walk rate = .0694

 

I'm curious on how many times ARam swings and misses/or fouls and if this effects his walk rate. A lot of hitters foul off or miss a pitch and perhaps ARam doesn't do that as much thus skewing those numbers.

There is a strong correlation between a player's swing/miss ratio (or contact percentage) and his strikeout rate. There's also a pretty strong relationship between a player's take/swing ratio and his walk rate. Some pitch seqence data for Aramis over the past few years, as well as the average numbers for third basemen in 2005:

 

            CP%    T/S      B%     CS%     SS%     FB%     FC%
3B Avg.   81.0%   1.20   36.9%   16.8%    8.1%   16.8%   19.8%
2005      81.8%   1.00   35.9%   12.9%    8.5%   18.6%   22.2%
2004      83.3%   0.96   35.9%   11.9%    8.3%   20.0%   22.4%
2003      80.4%   0.93   34.8%   12.3%   10.1%   20.6%   21.1%

(Contact percentage, Take/Swing ratio, and % of pitches that resulted in balls, called strikes, swinging strikes, foul balls, and fair contact.)

 

Aramis is generally less patient that other third basemen, swinging at more pitches than he takes. He makes contact at pretty a similar rate, though.

 

Interesting stuff BK...thanks.

[USSoccer]

 

Seriously, there's no way anyone can objectively argue that Aramis was better offensively last year.

 

Well, I guess I wasn't being objective. :D

 

Seriously, though, good research. You corrected my dodgy memory on their numbers from last season. Well done. We'll see how this season plays out.