Mathematical Best Lineups

[JGalt73]

From David Pinto's Baseball Musings, here is a program that calculates the optimal lineups for any 9 players based solely on OBP and SLG..."the program puts very unusual people at the top of the order. It also seems to put the worst hitters 8th. It also likes to put three high OBAs in front of the best power hitter."

 

For a Cubs lineup using BP's projected OBP and SLG (and Prior's 2005 line)...your ideal lineup: Murton, Lee, Walker, Ramirez, Barrett, Jones, Cedeno, Prior, Pierre. (4.644 runs/game)

 

And using Bill James' Handbook projections: Murton, Lee, Walker, Ramirez, Cedeno, Jones, Barrett, Prior, Pierre. (4.954 runs/game)

 

This takes a while to load but gives all of the OBP and SLG data (and lets you edit them if so desired) and ranked best/worst lineups for the BP projections...

 

...and the Bill James Handbook projections.

[Guest]

Neat stuff. I wish it listed all the lineup permutations so we could see how a more conventional lineup stacked up. (Then again, that's something like 360,000 different lineups. I guess I can see why he chose to limit it down!) I think I may try cobbling together a quick spreadsheet based on the coefficients presented in one of his references to figure that out.

 

It's interesting that the difference between the absolute best and worst possible lineups amounts to about 80-85 runs a season. That's pretty big, but keep in mind that's the difference between mathematical perfection and a lineup so dumb even Dusty wouldn't use it. I'm guessing the variance among realistically plausible lineups is pretty small.

Edited February 25, 2006 by Anonymous

[CubinNY]

From David Pinto's Baseball Musings, here is a program that calculates the optimal lineups for any 9 players based solely on OBP and SLG..."the program puts very unusual people at the top of the order. It also seems to put the worst hitters 8th. It also likes to put three high OBAs in front of the best power hitter."

 

For a Cubs lineup using BP's projected OBP and SLG (and Prior's 2005 line)...your ideal lineup: Murton, Lee, Walker, Ramirez, Barrett, Jones, Cedeno, Prior, Pierre. (4.644 runs/game)

 

And using Bill James' Handbook projections: Murton, Lee, Walker, Ramirez, Cedeno, Jones, Barrett, Prior, Pierre. (4.954 runs/game)

 

This takes a while to load but gives all of the OBP and SLG data (and lets you edit them if so desired) and ranked best/worst lineups for the BP projections...

 

...and the Bill James Handbook projections.

 

From the standpoint of a scientist, I would love to see this type of thing tried for at least 50 or so games. However, I cannot imagine any baseball team would ever do such a thing. When the Red Sox tried the closer by committee thing they half-way implemented James theory and they got results that I would typically expect with a half-way implementation. The next thing you know the neaderthals were bumping into one another in their proclimations that baseball isn't played on paper. In reality, a bad experiment is a bad experiment and the results support no such conclusions.

 

I cannot see the "you got to have speed at the top of the order" Cubs hitting Pierre anywhere but 1st. In additon, I would expect at least a little complaining from the players unless the effects in terms of wins was immediate.

[Guest]

Some R/G numbers for various possible/probable/popular lineups: (I'm using BP's projections because I think they're the more likely of the two.)

 

Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Cedeno, Pror: 4.508 R/G

Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Murton, Jones, Barrett, Cedeno, Prior: 4.525 R/G

Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Murton, Jones, Cedeno, Barrett, Prior: 4.501 R/G

Pierre, Jones, Lee, Ramirez, Walker, Murton, Barrett, Cedeno, Prior: 4.510 R/G

Pierre, Murton, Lee, Ramirez, Walker, Barrett, Jones, Cedeno, Prior: 4.523 R/G

Pierre, Cedeno, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Walker, Barrett, Prior: 4.465 R/G

Walker, Murton, Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Jones, Cedeno, Pierre, Prior: 4.495 R/G

 

The difference between the best and worst of those lineups is 0.06 runs per game, or just under 10 runs over a whole season.

[CuseCubFan69]

Some R/G numbers for various possible/probable/popular lineups: (I'm using BP's projections because I think they're the more likely of the two.)

 

Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Cedeno, Pror: 4.508 R/G

Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Murton, Jones, Barrett, Cedeno, Prior: 4.525 R/G

Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Murton, Jones, Cedeno, Barrett, Prior: 4.501 R/G

Pierre, Jones, Lee, Ramirez, Walker, Murton, Barrett, Cedeno, Prior: 4.510 R/G

Pierre, Murton, Lee, Ramirez, Walker, Barrett, Jones, Cedeno, Prior: 4.523 R/G

Pierre, Cedeno, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Walker, Barrett, Prior: 4.465 R/G

Walker, Murton, Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Jones, Cedeno, Pierre, Prior: 4.495 R/G

 

The difference between the best and worst of those lineups is 0.06 runs per game, or just under 10 runs over a whole season.

 

What happens if you switch Cedeno for Perez?

[Guest]

Some R/G numbers for various possible/probable/popular lineups: (I'm using BP's projections because I think they're the more likely of the two.)

 

Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Cedeno, Pror: 4.508 R/G

Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Murton, Jones, Barrett, Cedeno, Prior: 4.525 R/G

Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Murton, Jones, Cedeno, Barrett, Prior: 4.501 R/G

Pierre, Jones, Lee, Ramirez, Walker, Murton, Barrett, Cedeno, Prior: 4.510 R/G

Pierre, Murton, Lee, Ramirez, Walker, Barrett, Jones, Cedeno, Prior: 4.523 R/G

Pierre, Cedeno, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Walker, Barrett, Prior: 4.465 R/G

Walker, Murton, Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Jones, Cedeno, Pierre, Prior: 4.495 R/G

 

The difference between the best and worst of those lineups is 0.06 runs per game, or just under 10 runs over a whole season.

 

What happens if you switch Cedeno for Perez?

The first lineup goes from 4.508 R/G to 4.459 R/G, about 8 runs for the season. As a general rule, the higher up in the order Neifi hits the more runs he'll cost us. If he replaced Ronny in the lineup where I had Cedeno hitting second, for example, the difference would be about 19 total runs. If he were to replace Walker in the #2 hole it would cost the Cubs about 31 runs.

[UK1679666180]

One possibly two more, BK?

 

Replace Walker with Perez hitting 2nd.

 

I'm just trying to gauge whether or not, the improvement of having Pierre leadoff in '06 over what they had at the top in '05 is almost negated by having Perez hit 2nd compared to Walker? Not that Walker had many ABs hitting 2nd in '05 (IIRC, it was around 250), but the offense at the top would not show much improvement over '05, if Perez is hitting 2nd.

 

(I'm not saying the Cubs will start Perez, I'm just trying to get a statistical guess as to what the damage might be)

[Guest]

One possibly two more, BK?

 

Replace Walker with Perez hitting 2nd.

 

I'm just trying to gauge whether or not, the improvement of having Pierre leadoff in '06 over what they had at the top in '05 is almost negated by having Perez hit 2nd compared to Walker? Not that Walker had many ABs hitting 2nd in '05 (IIRC, it was around 250), but the offense at the top would not show much improvement over '05, if Perez is hitting 2nd.

 

(I'm not saying the Cubs will start Perez, I'm just trying to get a statistical guess as to what the damage might be)

Replacing Walker with Perez in the first lineup I listed Dropped the R/G from 4.508 to 4.315, a difference of about 31 runs over a full season. Was there a different lineup you wanted to see with Perez in it?

[Monco]

One possibly two more, BK?

 

 

Was there a different lineup you wanted to see with Perez in it?

 

 

 

I would prefer him in the Cardinals lineup.Wouldn't a lineup with Perez hitting in the 2 hole project to about 79 wins?

[CuseCubFan69]

Thanks BK...very interesting.

[UK1679666180]

One possibly two more, BK?

 

Replace Walker with Perez hitting 2nd.

 

I'm just trying to gauge whether or not, the improvement of having Pierre leadoff in '06 over what they had at the top in '05 is almost negated by having Perez hit 2nd compared to Walker? Not that Walker had many ABs hitting 2nd in '05 (IIRC, it was around 250), but the offense at the top would not show much improvement over '05, if Perez is hitting 2nd.

 

(I'm not saying the Cubs will start Perez, I'm just trying to get a statistical guess as to what the damage might be)

Replacing Walker with Perez in the first lineup I listed Dropped the R/G from 4.508 to 4.315, a difference of about 31 runs over a full season. Was there a different lineup you wanted to see with Perez in it?

 

Is there any way to find a player that projects similar to what the Cubs leadoff hitters hit last year?

 

Then plug that player in there w/Walker hitting 2nd?

[Guest]

Is there any way to find a player that projects similar to what the Cubs leadoff hitters hit last year?

 

Then plug that player in there w/Walker hitting 2nd?

Pierre, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Cedeno, Prior: 4.508 R/G

2005 Leadoff, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Cedeno, Prior: 4.359 R/G

Pierre, Perez, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Cedeno, Prior: 4.299 R/G

 

Pierre+Perez at the top of the order is actually worse than our woeful 2005 leadoff hitters (.245/.299/.358) + Walker. Pierre's an improvement over our 2005 leadoff options but he can't make up for the 120+ points of OPS we lose by using Neifi instead of Walker.

[treebird]

this is really great. im shocked at the difference between the optimal lineup and the likely lineup though. more than i expected.

[UK1679666180]

2005 Leadoff, Walker, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Cedeno, Prior: 4.359 R/G

Pierre, Perez, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Murton, Barrett, Cedeno, Prior: 4.299 R/G

 

That's what I was afraid with those projections, that the '05 leadoff hitter and Walker might actually outperform the 06' projections of Pierre and Perez hitting 1-2.

[JGalt73]

BK, you're off the hook for new requests...

 

...from Baseball Musings:

"There were a couple of requests in regards to last night's lineup analysis to change the program so it would calculate the runs per game for a given lineup. Having looked at the code, it wasn't tough to do. So now if you enter an actual lineup, it gives you the runs per game for that batting order before the best and worst tables. You can try it here."

[treebird]

Do these projections assume 162 games for each player?

 

yes, but the number they spit out is r/g, not a number of runs for the full season. taking the number it spits out and multiplying it be 162 would not be useful, as far as coming up with an accurate projection for the number of runs your teams will score in the coming season with a given lineup.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Do these projections assume 162 games for each player?

 

yes, but the number they spit out is r/g, not a number of runs for the full season. taking the number it spits out and multiplying it be 162 would not be useful, as far as coming up with an accurate projection for the number of runs your teams will score in the coming season with a given lineup.

 

Ack, I deleted this stupid post but you caught me before it was gone! #-o

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Hardball Times has an interesting read on constructing line-ups.

 

Link.

 

Here's what he had to say:

 

I'm not quite done reading The Book, and I'll have to re-read several sections a few times. But I paid particular attention to lineup construction, and I thought I'd share some of The Book with you. The Book is filled with concise, logical analyses that culminate in strategic guidelines, called "The Book Says." Here's the most important strategic guideline for lineup construction:

 

The Book Says:

Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.

I'm only scratching the surface of the lineup chapter with this quote, but there's obviously enough meat here to fill 10 articles. Don't worry; I'm only going to write one today. For this article, let's apply The Book's guideline to some real teams, using Baseball Prospectus' statistical projections for next year.

 

That's really interesting. He uses the A's as his example, but if I take PECOTA's projections for the likely Cubs starting nine and simply use OPS to rank the hitters 1-9, the players rank in this order: Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Jones, Walker, Murton, Pierre, and Cedeno.

 

Following that formula, Lee, Ramirez and Barrett should occupy the #1, #2, and #4 spot in the line-up. Jones and Walker should be in the #3 and #5 positions and then 6-9 would be Murton, Pierre, Cedeno, and the pitcher respectively.

 

Basically, if following this premise, the Cubs line-up would be :

 

1. Lee

2. Ramirez

3. Walker

4. Barrett

5. Jones

6. Murton

7. Pierre

8. Cedeno

9. Pitcher

 

 

Interesting concept and nothing like anything we've ever seen.

[Guest]

The Hardball Times has an interesting read on constructing line-ups.

 

Link.

 

Here's what he had to say:

 

I'm not quite done reading The Book, and I'll have to re-read several sections a few times. But I paid particular attention to lineup construction, and I thought I'd share some of The Book with you. The Book is filled with concise, logical analyses that culminate in strategic guidelines, called "The Book Says." Here's the most important strategic guideline for lineup construction:

 

The Book Says:

Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality.

I'm only scratching the surface of the lineup chapter with this quote, but there's obviously enough meat here to fill 10 articles. Don't worry; I'm only going to write one today. For this article, let's apply The Book's guideline to some real teams, using Baseball Prospectus' statistical projections for next year.

 

That's really interesting. He uses the A's as his example, but if I take PECOTA's projections for the likely Cubs starting nine and simply use OPS to rank the hitters 1-9, the players rank in this order: Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Jones, Walker, Murton, Pierre, and Cedeno.

 

Following that formula, Lee, Ramirez and Barrett should occupy the #1, #2, and #4 spot in the line-up. Jones and Walker should be in the #3 and #5 positions and then 6-9 would be Murton, Pierre, Cedeno, and the pitcher respectively.

 

Basically, if following this premise, the Cubs line-up would be :

 

1. Lee

2. Ramirez

3. Walker

4. Barrett

5. Jones

6. Murton

7. Pierre

8. Cedeno

9. Pitcher

 

 

Interesting concept and nothing like anything we've ever seen.

It seems Tango, MGL, and Dolphin came to pretty much the same conclusions as Morong as far as what traits are best suited to which lineup slots. I wonder if there will ever be a management team progressive/brave enough to buck the conventional wisdom and give such an unorthodox lineup a real chance. If the numbers can be belived it may be worth an extra win or two over the course of a season.

[UK1679666180]

I've never bought these types of examples. Is it wise to have your 2nd worst hitter and an automatic out right in front of your best hitter?

 

The amount of extra ABs seen throughout the year would not compensate for the lack of baserunners in front of your overall best hitters.

[srbin84]

I've never bought these types of examples. Is it wise to have your 2nd worst hitter and an automatic out right in front of your best hitter?

 

The amount of extra ABs seen throughout the year would not compensate for the lack of baserunners in front of your overall best hitters.

 

If Lee was hitting leadoff, you would also have to factor in the extra opportunities to drive in runs the guys behind him would have.

[UK1679666180]

Lee and Ramirez would be the table setters for Walker and Murton. Although Lee and Ramirez have much higher Total Bases per hit than a typical 1-2 combo, it wouldn't compensate for the inability of Walker, Murton, and Jones to drive them in at a similar ratio as Lee and Ramirez.

 

It seems backwards to me.

[UK1679666180]

Using ZiPS projections:

 

I adjusted the OPS (OBP*1.4+SLG)

 

Lee-.558/.582

Ramirez .502/.541

Barrett .479/.468

Murton .490/.430

Cedeno .465/.412

Walker .470/.435

Pierre .484/.364

Jones .446/.433

 

Even while adjusted, the value of their OBP doesn't match their slugging.

 

They're the only two that applies to.

 

Based on these projections (although, I think Jones will surpass them) and not factoring R/L and how it impacts a batting order.

 

Pierre

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Walker

Cedeno

Jones

P

[Magnetic Curses]

i like the idea of hitting your best hitter first and your "leadoff" hitter last.

[jjgman21]

I did some pipe dreaming over last weekend and plugged in the numbers for each players best year and optimistic numbers for Murton and Cedeno (not as optimistic as Bill James, though) into the baseballmusings calculator

 

most of the best lineups under that scenerio had Cedeno hitting third.