Rumor - Murton for Soriano?

[goonys evil twin]

 

90% it can be. If Pierre had average speed he'd be a .150 hitter with no power. That's a pitcher.

 

And if Adam Dunn didn't have plate discipline, he'd have a .270 OBP. And if Barry Zito had an average curveball, he wouldn't be in the major leagues. It's not reasonable to remove a player's most valuable asset in order to show a lack of productivity.

 

That's not what that was about. He was showing that the value of Pierre's speed is measured in his numbers.

[CubDad4Ever]

Speed is a factor in every sport , baseball included. If pitchers did not care , there would be no pickoff moves or pitchouts, which tilt the count to the batter. A man on second because of a steal is added slugging %, just as a thrown out diminishes on base. I dont give a crap , how he gets on as long as he gets on base and scores. I know he is not Ricky Henderson or Tim Raines , but i think he can carry numerical value for both the large sample size of a season and obviously carry some critical small sample size games for the cubs . ( steal in the 9th). Its an interesting argument . I have always wondered how much scouts still factor in speed , when evaluating players. Thanks Coach L

[goonys evil twin]

Speed is a factor in every sport , baseball included. If pitchers did not care , there would be no pickoff moves or pitchouts, which tilt the count to the batter.

 

Caring is one thing. Having it create an effect is entirely different.

[UK1679666180]

Scouts factor speed more than GMs, if there are 5 absolutes to pitching and hitting, speed is obviously one of the 5 absolutes of scouting. It's also one of the easiest to grade, thanks to the stop watch.

 

For me, when grading a leadoff hitter, speed is a luxury and getting on-base is a requirement. I would not sacrifice the ability to get on base for speed, if there was a choice between two hitters to hit leadoff.

[CubDad4Ever]

Thanks UK, i agree i would rather have a henderson or raines for that reason. They brought both to the table. Im hoping we get enough OBP from Juan to make his speed a big factor. Thanks Coach L

[UK1679666180]

He'll have to get on-base a lot, if not the Cubs will have a feast or famine style of offense again.

[CubDad4Ever]

Goony when replicating a movement skill like pitching . any detrimental effect , such as divided attention can and does have an effect. I coach QBs in football. The difference between a big time player and not , is the ability to execute a series of skill sets under duress . Few and far between can do that at a high level. Baseball is no different . It absolutely affects pitchers. How they deal with that situation differs. That being said , i am with you and UK on the importance of OBP at the top of the order, or any spot for that matter. I just think speed is also important. Thanks Coach L

[UK1679666180]

Goony when replicating a movement skill like pitching . any detrimental effect , such as divided attention can and does have an effect. I coach QBs in football. The difference between a big time player and not , is the ability to execute a series of skill sets under duress . Few and far between can do that at a high level. Baseball is no different . It absolutely affects pitchers. How they deal with that situation differs. That being said , i am with you and UK on the importance of OBP at the top of the order, or any spot for that matter. I just think speed is also important. Thanks Coach L

 

But, what type of pitchers are impacted by a runner on base? I've never seen Maddux react differently, he'll throw over, but he'll never rush his typical slow delivery or hang one.

 

The only type of pitchers that get impacted by a quick runner on-base are weak minded ones who don't trust their stuff that day.

 

The elite or even good pitchers do not get distracted, having speed is more important as far as creating a mind-set that you're an aggressive club rather than distracting pitchers/catchers.

 

Every team should allow the players to have a green light, the green light should never be given by a coach, only a stop sign.

[CubDad4Ever]

UK , i agree with alot of your premise. I was thinking of Maddux myself, when i wrote the last post. He basically ignores runners. I also agree with having an "offensive mindset for your utilization of baserunning" However i still think even great athletes have to fight distraction. There is nothing tougher than going through a read progression and having color flash in or by your line of vision .(NFL QB) and trying to maintain mechanics and focus. So i have to believe even "strong minded" athletes are affected some. Just my 2 cents worth. Great takes by both you and Goony UK Coach L

[fromthestretch]

Goony when replicating a movement skill like pitching . any detrimental effect , such as divided attention can and does have an effect. I coach QBs in football. The difference between a big time player and not , is the ability to execute a series of skill sets under duress . Few and far between can do that at a high level. Baseball is no different . It absolutely affects pitchers. How they deal with that situation differs. That being said , i am with you and UK on the importance of OBP at the top of the order, or any spot for that matter. I just think speed is also important. Thanks Coach L

 

There's a big difference between how a high school pitcher will react with a fast runner on base and how a major league pitcher will react. There's most likely a big difference between how an A-ball pitcher will react and a major league pitcher will react.

 

Focused pitchers won't let their attention waver that much. Yes, they'll throw over occasionally (some like Steve "the human rain delay" Trachsel will throw over more than others). Some may change their delivery to use more of a slide step. But by the time they get to the majors, they should have been in the situation enough times to not let it affect how much they are focused on the hitter.

 

I'm not saying pitchers shouldn't pay any attention to baserunners. Frankly, I hate seeing pitchers with piss-poor moves to first base. Furthermore, I think it's an absolute crime for a left-hander to not have a decent move. It's certainly a part of the game that a lot of pitchers need to work on. However, it shouldn't be done to the extent that it affects their ability to concentrate on the hitter.

[UK1679666180]

However i still think even great athletes have to fight distraction. There is nothing tougher than going through a read progression and having color flash in or by your line of vision

 

But, RH'ed pitcher isn't visually distracted, when a runner takes off his eye is on the target. A LH'ed pitcher can get visually distracted by the running taking off as can the hitter. As a hitter I hated runners stealing 2B while at the plate.

[fromthestretch]

 

90% it can be. If Pierre had average speed he'd be a .150 hitter with no power. That's a pitcher.

 

And if Adam Dunn didn't have plate discipline, he'd have a .270 OBP. And if Barry Zito had an average curveball, he wouldn't be in the major leagues. It's not reasonable to remove a player's most valuable asset in order to show a lack of productivity.

 

That's not what that was about. He was showing that the value of Pierre's speed is measured in his numbers.

 

Not only that but Dunn's plate discipline isn't his only asset. He also has tremendous power. If he walked only 30-40 times a season instead of 100+, he'd be Dave Kingman with more strikeouts...capable of hitting 30-45 homers with a crappy batting average. Certainly not ideal, but still capable of being somewhat productive.

 

If you took away Pierre's speed, you'd most likely see a significant drop in his batting average, and since he doesn't walk much, you'd definitely see a massive drop in his OBP. He wouldn't be stealing bases. What little extra base power he has is due in large part to his speed, so you'd probably see his doubles and triples totals drop.

[Lefty]

 

90% it can be. If Pierre had average speed he'd be a .150 hitter with no power. That's a pitcher.

 

And if Adam Dunn didn't have plate discipline, he'd have a .270 OBP. And if Barry Zito had an average curveball, he wouldn't be in the major leagues. It's not reasonable to remove a player's most valuable asset in order to show a lack of productivity.

 

My point was that his speed is reflected in the traditional stats. To start ascribing all this value to speed as an intangible is silly.

[CubfaninCA]

I'm so sick of the "distracts the pitcher" line of thought. It's so easy to say, but no one ever backs it up with any proof. Until then, I dont see any reason to believe it.

 

I'm sick of the disregard for psychology. It offends my intelligence.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm so sick of the "distracts the pitcher" line of thought. It's so easy to say, but no one ever backs it up with any proof. Until then, I dont see any reason to believe it.

 

I'm sick of the disregard for psychology. It offends my intelligence.

 

Then provide evidence of the effects. Either it's real and has effects, isn't real, or is real and has an impact too small to see.

[CubfaninCA]

Pierre & Walker > Murton & Walker. Great speed can throw some pitcher's off rhythm. This is especially beneficial at the beginning of a game.

 

If a pitcher is thrown for a loop b/c Pierre is on base, he's probably weak mentally and unable to handle pressure. That likely means he's not that good to begin with and lacks confidence.

 

You don't see good pitchers get rattled when a fast runner is on 1B for a reason.

 

Then, did Pierre impact the pitcher or did the weak mental state of the pitcher impact it?

 

I blame the pitcher & not credit the runner. That pitcher likely gets rattled even with a slow runner, b/c the leadoff runner and he's afraid of the big inning.

 

I agree strong pitchers are unlikely to get rattled, but the Cubs need all the help they can get. Some weak pitchers give them trouble too.

[CubfaninCA]

Can an argument also be made that when a speedy runner is on base, a pitcher and/or defense can become more focused rather than distracted?

 

Yes.

[CubfaninCA]

Great speed can throw some pitcher's off rhythm. This is especially beneficial at the beginning of a game.

 

I'd like to believe this. Have you anything to back it up with? Pierre has never scored more than 108 runs in a season. If he was good at throwing off pitcher's rhythm, wouldn't he have an extremely high run scoring rate considering guys like Carlos Delgado, Miguel Cabrera and Todd Helton have been hitting right behind him during his career?

 

Mark Loretta scored 108 runs in 2004 hitting primarily 2nd in the Padres order. He doesn't have any speed to speak of. How can he score the same amount of runs in a season as someone like Pierre, who can throw off a pitcher's rhythm?

 

Does Pierre have some sort of special "runs scored per chances" ratio that other not so speedy high run scoring players don't?

 

I'm not against speed. I'm against sacrificing OBP for speed.

 

Putting Pierre @ leadoff isn't sacrificing OBP. His obp is right there w/ the great Walker. I have over 100 years of baseball on my side. Pierre's a "prototypical leadoff man." I'll stick w/ what hundreds of managers have went with...

[fromthestretch]

Putting Pierre @ leadoff isn't sacrificing OBP.

 

So you're saying it's a certainty that Pierre won't repeat his terrible 2005 numbers? I'm not saying he'll be terrible, but he's had two bad seasons out of six. It seems to me that you have absolutely no doubt he'll put up a good OBP. I'm curious what leads you to believe that.

 

His obp is right there w/ the great Walker.

 

Then why give up three young pitchers and take on more salary to get Pierre when Walker could bat leadoff?

 

I have over 100 years of baseball on my side. Pierre's a "prototypical leadoff man." I'll stick w/ what hundreds of managers have went with...

 

Isn't this really more of an indictment of general managers rather than managers? Hendry is the one that went out and got Pierre. Are you implying that every GM who acquired a "prototypical leadoff man" had great success?

[CubfaninCA]

I think more distracted espically if they are a top baserunner in the league. No when there are men on past 1B I think thats when the pitcher and defense become more focused. I think the pitcher becomes to much focused on holding the runner on that it takes away from who he's pitching too. Thats why i wanted a legitamate leadoff hitter and I think Pierre is that even if he doesn't have an All-Star season.

 

If pitchers get distracted, then why did the person following Pierre perform worse when Pierre was on base more?

 

Apparently, Castillo's not good @ hitting w/ a guy on first. Small sample size considering the many, many speedy leadoff men who have played baseball...

[Lefty]

quote]

 

I'll stick w/ what hundreds of managers have went with...

 

No doubt all of them winners.

 

The lineup is really an afterthought. Once you've filled your positions, you then figure out an order to maximize what you have. To trade for a "prototypical" leadoff hitter is prototypical Cub stupidity. If the Cubs had Edmonds in CF leading off, would they be better or worse? The Cubs OF is awful and that's why Murton might be their best OFer, not because he is the second coming.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think more distracted espically if they are a top baserunner in the league. No when there are men on past 1B I think thats when the pitcher and defense become more focused. I think the pitcher becomes to much focused on holding the runner on that it takes away from who he's pitching too. Thats why i wanted a legitamate leadoff hitter and I think Pierre is that even if he doesn't have an All-Star season.

 

If pitchers get distracted, then why did the person following Pierre perform worse when Pierre was on base more?

 

Apparently, Castillo's not good @ hitting w/ a guy on first. Small sample size considering the many, many speedy leadoff men who have played baseball...

 

And yet a very sizable sample for the exact individual we're talking about. Can we see the effects from some of these other speedy leadoff men?

[Chocolate Milk]

I think more distracted espically if they are a top baserunner in the league. No when there are men on past 1B I think thats when the pitcher and defense become more focused. I think the pitcher becomes to much focused on holding the runner on that it takes away from who he's pitching too. Thats why i wanted a legitamate leadoff hitter and I think Pierre is that even if he doesn't have an All-Star season.

 

If pitchers get distracted, then why did the person following Pierre perform worse when Pierre was on base more?

 

Apparently, Castillo's not good @ hitting w/ a guy on first. Small sample size considering the many, many speedy leadoff men who have played baseball...

 

And yet a very sizable sample for the exact individual we're talking about. Can we see the effects from some of these other speedy leadoff men?

 

Does it translate year to year? Or is it like "Cutch hitting" where the results fluctuate wildly from year to year?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think more distracted espically if they are a top baserunner in the league. No when there are men on past 1B I think thats when the pitcher and defense become more focused. I think the pitcher becomes to much focused on holding the runner on that it takes away from who he's pitching too. Thats why i wanted a legitamate leadoff hitter and I think Pierre is that even if he doesn't have an All-Star season.

 

If pitchers get distracted, then why did the person following Pierre perform worse when Pierre was on base more?

 

Apparently, Castillo's not good @ hitting w/ a guy on first. Small sample size considering the many, many speedy leadoff men who have played baseball...

 

And yet a very sizable sample for the exact individual we're talking about. Can we see the effects from some of these other speedy leadoff men?

 

Does it translate year to year? Or is it like "Cutch hitting" where the results fluctuate wildly from year to year?

 

The correlation between Castillo and Pierre? The basic idea(Pierre does well, Castillo does worse, and vice versa) held true for 3 years I believe.

[UK1679666180]

I agree strong pitchers are unlikely to get rattled, but the Cubs need all the help they can get. Some weak pitchers give them trouble too.

 

Now, how much value does that have compared to the actual ability of getting on base?

 

To me, the ability to distract some of the lesser pitchers isn't nearly as important as the ability to get on 1B.