My Cub 2006 prediction

[cubbieinexile]

Heading into this season I initially thought this team doomed to mediocrity and the moves they made doing very little for their cause. A couple years ago I did this for one the other cubs teams and was almost exactly on with the predictions, so I decided to look closer and here is my prediction for next year,

 

Like I said above initialy I thoght this team doomed from the start but after looking at last year I have some hope. It turns out that several spots in the lineup were just sinkholes. Now I know that isn't a shocker but I never realized how bad they were, and it also shows how little the Cubs have to do to improve even a little for this year to be better. Meaning it doesn't tkae the acquisition of Alex Rodriguez to improve upon a .307 OBP and .369 SLG. Or finding Willie Mays to improve upon a .281/.362 Simply getting a guy with a .330 OBP and .380 SLG would improve a spot tremendously. So there is reason for a good burst of offense even if some players decline from highs. AAAAAAAAAAAArgh!

 

Got half way through my position by position recap and prediction when I accidently hit a delete button and lost most of it. Don't even feel like retyping it all.

 

So heres a quick summary of what I think each position will do next year. Position-OBP/SLG

C: .320/.450

1B: .380/.550

2B: .330/.420

3B: .355/.550

SS: .320/.385

LF: .340/.450

CF: .340/.385

RF: .320/.425

PH: .300/.350

 

Anyway last year the Cubs were absolutely horrible in CF, SS, and PH, and to some degree Right Field. This year with the transactions I think the Cubs will improve in all three and possibly stay the same in right field. The Cubs should lose ground at first and second, while slightly slipping at C, and either maintain or improve at third.

 

Last year the team scored 703 runs, runs created says they should have scored around 780 runs. Part of the gap in runs and rc I think has to do with lineup construction and some severe black holes, with this prediction I think they should score about 820 runs but if we compensate for some Dustyism to seep into the lineup I would say that we should expect around 760 to 780 runs for this offense. I think one should expect a nice bounce back for this offense compared to last year.

 

So what about the pitching and defense? Lets get the defense out of the way first. I would say that the defense is going to be about the same or perhaps slightly better. So that leaves the pitching, last year they allowed 714 runs to score, 671 earned. RC says that they should have allowed 691 runs to score, DIPS says 680 runs allowed. I would say that the Cubs are going to allow about 700 to 720 runs this year. Even with some question marks this isn't a staff that is likely to be bad, and it does have the possibility of being very good.

 

So to sum it up I think the offense will score 760 to 780 runs with an outside chance of scoring over 800 runs. I think the pitching staff will allow 700 to 720 runs with a better chance to allow less then 700 then offense has to score more then 800. Best case scenario is 780-700, worst case 760-720. Using the pyth that puts the cubs wins between 85 to 89 wins. I personally think think the Cubs will do around the 780-700 mark and through a little luck hit the 90-91 win mark. Thats the hopeful side of me, the number cruncher in me sees around a 88-90 win season.

 

Of course who knows what will happen during the season, injuries, trades, playing some players, not playing others, and so on. If Todd Walker gets traded for a bag of baseballs and they hand second base to Neifi I would lower the expect to wins down a good deal.

 

So what do you think? How many wins do you think the Cubs will have.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

That seems pretty fair.

 

BP is supposedly working on Databeast, which should attempt to evaluate just how effective managers are. It will be interesting to see where Dusty ranks among his peers. I don't think it's been released yet, but I could be wrong. I really doubt that he helps his teams score runs with all the bs he pulls.

 

I think we're sitting at 85 wins or so right now. If Wood/Z/Prior all stay healthy we might be looking at 90-95 assuming the offense doesn't fall off a cliff. Even that doesn't assure us of a playoff spot, but it's a good deal better than last season (I aim low, lol).

[cubbieinexile]

I should say that I don't expect the run drop from expectation to be all Dusty only that the way this team is put together I think it will underperform its RC again this year, some of that is the style of hitters and some of it is Dusty.

Dusty's teams tend to underperform according to their Run Created numbers. His teams and style tend to not reach what RC expects out of those numbers.

 

Even if we look at BP's EqR his teams in recent years underperform by about 20 runs or so.

[David]

Very good writeup...

 

I have to say, though, that I expect a little better than a .330 OBP from 2B (as I expect the vast majority of AB's to go to Walker/Hairston) and I think we very well could do better than .320 from C.

 

Also, just as you said, the pitching has the potential to be VERY good. IF that's the case, and if we can score ~800 runs, both of which I think are solid possibilities (though not certain by any stretch of the imagination) we'll be in pretty good shape.

[BigbadB]

I think they'll be somewhere between 85-87. Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are better this year than they were last year. Cincinnati could be better. Houston is probably not as good and St. Louis is probably just a smidge worse than last years team. Because of a better balancing within the division, I don't see the Cubs being strong enough to run away with it.

[cubbieinexile]

Very good writeup...

 

I have to say, though, that I expect a little better than a .330 OBP from 2B (as I expect the vast majority of AB's to go to Walker/Hairston) and I think we very well could do better than .320 from C.

 

Also, just as you said, the pitching has the potential to be VERY good. IF that's the case, and if we can score ~800 runs, both of which I think are solid possibilities (though not certain by any stretch of the imagination) we'll be in pretty good shape.

 

Last year we got .330 OBP from the catching spot. You have to remember that Barrett's backup is going to get some playing time. Whoever it is is going to be drag on Barrett. Before I lost my position by position recap I wrote that I felt that we would see a slight drop because a) Blanco had one of his bests years with the bast last year and I didn't think he was going to do it again, while Barrett would maintain his level of performance or drop very slightly.

 

For second I mentioned the uncertainty of the position, who is going to play who is going. On top of that the best player available is Todd Walker and he is on the wrong side of 30 and has been able to stay healthy the last couple of years. On top of that second bases numbers last year got boosted a bit by Neifi and his stretch of good play. That isn't going to happen again so I put down a conservative .330/.420 for second with the right to change it when we know more in spring training.

[cubbieinexile]

I've been looking around and so far it looks like a lot number crunchers are projecting the Cubs to win around 85 games as well.

 

With Prior hurtin, I reserve the right to change my mind before opening day.

[RyCubsFan]

I expect that Barrett, Murton, and Hairston/Walker will do better than the posted OBP's. (Of course, Barrett's will be mitigated somewhat by Blanco's.)

 

I think Murton is going to do better than we expect.

[goonys evil twin]

I expect that Barrett, Murton, and Hairston/Walker will do better than the posted OBP's. (Of course, Barrett's will be mitigated somewhat by Blanco's.)

 

I think Murton is going to do better than we expect.

 

The mitigating factor of Blanco is huge. Just like the mitigating factor of Grissom, Mabry and Perez affecting those others positions. You have to remember it's not just the starters that matter, but the guys who will get serious playing time.

 

C: .320/.450

2B: .330/.420

LF: .340/.450

[cubbieinexile]

Thats basically what I would say gooney.

Last year with Hairston and Walker over at second they got a .346/.442 production out of that spot.

 

This year right now Baker and CO are leaning towards Perez getting playing time over at second. Probably more then 74 at bats, on top of that if Walker is the full time or majority player at second he is still going to be one year older and on the wrong side of 30. Granted right now the picture is murky. Do they send Cedeno down thus allowing Perez to play at SS? If so then yes second base is likely to get a bump. But at the same time SS is likely to go down a bit. Those rather putrid SS projections I have at the top are actually an improvement over last years numbers. Neifi Perez if he is the full time SS or if he again gets a huge chunk of time over at SS could very well do as poor as last years performance.

[BWcubs21]

Very good writeup...

 

I have to say, though, that I expect a little better than a .330 OBP from 2B (as I expect the vast majority of AB's to go to Walker/Hairston) and I think we very well could do better than .320 from C.

 

Also, just as you said, the pitching has the potential to be VERY good. IF that's the case, and if we can score ~800 runs, both of which I think are solid possibilities (though not certain by any stretch of the imagination) we'll be in pretty good shape.

 

 

If Neifi is kept strictly as a backup SS and maybe a few games at 2b/3b with the rest of the time at 2b going to Walker/Harriston then I can see upwards of .345-.350. I am not sure we are going to do much better than that at catcher though look at Blanco's career OBP numbers:

2002-.267

2003-.252

2004-.260

2005-.287

[A New Era]

Pretty spot on predictions I think. The only thing I would dissagree on is Barret. .

 

.320/.450

 

His OBP since he's been with the Cubs has improved over the last 2 years. And just based on that I think he is improving and getting better offensively, I'd give him. . .

 

.340/.460

 

Oh but I forgot we are factoring in blanco, so your #'s seem more on target. But given that Blanco seemed to have timely hitting, I think our C position is pretty good.

[Hatman]

...yadda, yadda, yadda...84 Wins

[Jimy is a misspell]

I think the Cubs finish 4th in the central, which might actually be good for you b/c Baker will finally be gone.

[anemic offense]

The pitching injuires are definiately discouraging, and losing Prior for ANY amount of significant time will be detrimental to this team's playoff chances. And although I know starting pitching is EXTREMELY important in having a successful season, I still think the bullpen is the most important cog for this team's success. That's not to say having a great bullpen is more important than the other facets of the game, its just that I think it is the one area which is prone to huge fluctuations from year to year. Maybe Howry and Eyre aren't worldbeaters, but they could potentially be HUGE upgrades over what we had last season. Outside of Dempster, our pen was pretty worthless (and has been for quite some time).

 

Another huge factor in this team's success will be when and how effective Miller will be upon his return. This is a guy who has the potential to be a very good #2 starter when healthy (that's a big if), and would be a huge lift if he could provide #3 starter production. For these reasons I'm not writing this team off just yet, although I won't make any promises either.

[KaiserCesar]

I think this confirms what a lot of people beleive. To reach the postseason there needs to be a few things happen. First, a little overacheivement over these numbers. That's only possible in a few spots like CF OBP and Jones utilizing his change of scenery to return to form. You'd also need a little bit of that magic luck that makes teams overacheive, mostly in 1 run games, which is dependent upon bullpen (improved) and bench (not impressive) and utilization of both (not impressive). Then you just have to hope you don't need 95 or 96 wins to make it and you stay healthy. The optimist in me sees another 89 win season that comes down to the performance in the last week.

[wastra]

I'm not real concerned with predicting OBP/SLG numbers per position. I don't care if we have 8 sinkholes in the lineup if we win games.

 

Overall, I see the main strength of this team being the bullpen, which is a nice upgrade over our setup issues last year.

 

The rotation is only a plus if Wood and Prior pitch soon and stay healthy. otherwise, it will be a weakness for us this year.

 

Defensively, I don't think we improved any. Burnitz and CPatt were fine defensively, and Murton didn't exactly look likea gold glover out there. Pierre and Jones can both run and catch, but neither has a good outfield arm, so I think we'll actually be a bit worse than last year in the outfield defensively.

 

In the infield, we'll be pretty much the same except that Cedeno and PErez are far superior defensively to Nomar and Perez.

 

Our bench is slightly upgraded with Mabry, and I hope they take Restovich as the Righty corner outfield bat off the bench rather than Grissom and let Hairston be the backup CF in addition to seeing time at 2B. I think Restovich has got potential to hit for power, too.

 

Offensively, it's very hard for me to be ecited about this team. We'll have many of the same issues as last year, and we're counting on a lot of "ifs" as well. Both Pierre and Jones are coming off career-worst years in terms of BA. Lee looked great last year, but I don't think we can expect him to maintain the same level. Cedeno is a big question mark. Actually, the only 4 people who don't worry me right now on offense are Lee, Ramirez, Barret, and Murton, and I don't really consider that a big-time offensive core.

 

And more importantly- I think we did not address the OBP problem. Not that we didn't get a leadoff hitter who'll be an improvement over Patterson- I think that's clear that we did even if Pierre just repeats. But we don't have any real "consistant" obp guys on the team at all...they're all pretty much all or nothing, and thus very streaky aside from Lee and maybe ARam and Gawd knows about Murton (yet). And every time PErez and Blanco start, we lose two more potential OBP guys to some degree (I doubt Cedeno has much over a .310-.320 OBP this year anyway). And our team is almost completely filled with dead-red fastball hitters.

 

 

So the problem will be, IMO, that our runs will come in bunches...perhaps a few more bunches than last year, but I still see lots of lineups with lots of futile swings and lots of scoring droughts against bad pitchers.

 

 

 

So: my prediction is on wins.

 

Fairly healthy rotation (By May, Wood and Prior are healthy from then on):

81-88 wins.

 

More injuries to the rotation (again):

72-81 wins.