Cubs Avoid Arb with Hairston Jr.

[mhuber92211]

I was just curious as to how Rusch is a Bench player when he is our worst hitting pitcher. I mean if you are going to include just 1 pitcher in your argument of overspending on bench players then I would imagine you should choose Z or someone who can hit.

[CubsWin]

Has anyone heard a single *valid* reason why Todd Walker is on the trading block all the time?

 

How can a cheap, productive player who appears to exhibit a goodly amount of clubhouse leadership be unwanted when there's nothing but junk behind him?

 

Makes no sense to me whatsoever. I could see if we had a great player to start, and Walker was just going to sit the bench for $2.5 million. But that's not the case. He's clearly head & shoulders above any other 2nd baseman on this roster. As a starter, that salary is pretty cheap.

 

Hendry & Walker must have gotten into a screaming match one day or something. That's the only thing I can think of.

Logic suggests it may have something to do with the fact that he has moved around so much in his career. Over the last 5 seasons, he has played for 4 different teams. He also signed for pretty cheap which could indicate a lack of interest in him from most teams. With Walker's ability, one would think GMs would be lining up to trade for him, but that clearly isn't the case. There must be a reason why they're not.

 

There is a lot of information that never makes it into the papers or out to the fans. But there has to be "valid" reasons why a player with his ability to produce offensively would agree to sign for so little and has not played more than two full seasons with any of the five teams he has played for in his 9-year career. Just because that information isn't being released to the fans doesn't mean that it doesn't exist. There is plenty of circumstantial evidence to suggest that there are "valid" reasons why Hendry would want to trade Walker besides some sort of personal difference between him and Todd.

 

Though the donut joke did bring a chuckle. Mmmm, krispy kremes....

[CuseCubFan69]

I was just curious as to how Rusch is a Bench player when he is our worst hitting pitcher. I mean if you are going to include just 1 pitcher in your argument of overspending on bench players then I would imagine you should choose Z or someone who can hit.

 

I thought Rusch was a decent hitter?

[Balsa]

From Bruce Miles' Latest Column:

 

Hairston, who has battled injuries throughout his career, missed a pair of stretches last year. He was on the disabled list in August after injuring a ligament in his left elbow diving for a flyball. Hairston missed the final 14 games of the season because of a severe bone bruise on his left knee.

 

The Cubs figure to use Hairston mainly at second base this year, where he’s likely to share time with Neifi Perez and Todd Walker, if the Cubs don’t trade Walker before the season starts.

 

General manager Jim Hendry said there was “no controversy” at second base. Perez can play shortstop, but the Cubs envision youngster Ronny Cedeno at short this year with Walker, Perez and Hairston battling at second.

 

“I spoke with Todd, and we had a good conversation,” Hendry said Monday, reiterating a point he made last week. “He realizes our situation has changed from last year. Todd, Neifi and Jerry are all going to go to camp to see who gets the most playing time. Playing time has a way of working itself out by performance.

 

“Jerry’s in better shape and is ready to show his best. Todd certainly made defensive improvements with us, and he’s a guy who can hit .300. So he’s very valuable in his own right.”

 

Also this tidbit was interesting/confusing:

 

Since Andy MacPhail took over as Cubs president in late 1994, the Cubs never have had a player go to a hearing, where an arbitrator picks one figure or the other.

 

That all could change come Friday with Ohman, with whom the Cubs don’t seem close to an agreement.

 

Weren't they the closest numberswise? Like only 50k or something?

[Blueheart05]

If Todd Walker is not traded, stays healthy, and is our starting 2nd baseman, it is not unreasonable to expect a .290+ average, 80+ runs, 170+ hits, 15-20 HR, 70 RBI and probably a .350+ OB%.

 

That is a steal for 2.5 million, offensively.

 

The Red Sox didn't do so bad with Walker at 2nd base in 03. Despite being replaced in key situations for defensive reasons, his defensive statistics were not horrible, and he made some outstanding plays in the playoffs, not to mention his lights-out hitting.

 

Todd Walker is our best bet at 2nd base. Unless there is a trade for Julio Lugo....

 

The 2003 Red Sox and 2006 Cubs are not similiar. The Red Sox offense was able to overcome the defensive shortcommings on that team (Ramirez & Walker for example). However, Walker was horrible defensively in 2003. IIRC, he was the absolute worst 2B at turning the double play in all the Major Leagues. Undoubtedly, that lack of defensive execution put additional stress on the pitching staff by allowing teams more chances to score.

 

By contrast, the Cubs will rely much more heavily on their pitching and defense in 2006 because their offense doesn't appear to be capable of scoring more than 4 runs a game consistently. Add to that a starting staff that may struggle, collectively, to pitch into the sixth inning because of likely limitations with pitch counts (Wood & Miller) age (Maddux) and stamina (Williams?). IMO, it's the only explanation for why the Cubs are seeking to upgrade Walker at 2B

[SouthSideRyan]

If Todd Walker is not traded, stays healthy, and is our starting 2nd baseman, it is not unreasonable to expect a .290+ average, 80+ runs, 170+ hits, 15-20 HR, 70 RBI and probably a .350+ OB%.

 

That is a steal for 2.5 million, offensively.

 

The Red Sox didn't do so bad with Walker at 2nd base in 03. Despite being replaced in key situations for defensive reasons, his defensive statistics were not horrible, and he made some outstanding plays in the playoffs, not to mention his lights-out hitting.

 

Todd Walker is our best bet at 2nd base. Unless there is a trade for Julio Lugo....

 

The 2003 Red Sox and 2006 Cubs are not similiar. The Red Sox offense was able to overcome the defensive shortcommings on that team (Ramirez & Walker for example). However, Walker was horrible defensively in 2003. IIRC, he was the absolute worst 2B at turning the double play in all the Major Leagues. Undoubtedly, that lack of defensive execution put additional stress on the pitching staff by allowing teams more chances to score.

 

By contrast, the Cubs will rely much more heavily on their pitching and defense in 2006 because their offense doesn't appear to be capable of scoring more than 4 runs a game consistently. Add to that a starting staff that may struggle, collectively, to pitch into the sixth inning because of likely limitations with pitch counts (Wood & Miller) age (Maddux) and stamina (Williams?). IMO, it's the only explanation for why the Cubs are seeking to upgrade Walker at 2B

 

A run scored is equal to a run prevented. Doesn't it make just as much sense to want to improve the already weak offense at the expense of what is already a good defense, compared to greatly downgrading the offense at the expense of defense in a not very important defensive position.

[JeffH]

If Todd Walker is not traded, stays healthy, and is our starting 2nd baseman, it is not unreasonable to expect a .290+ average, 80+ runs, 170+ hits, 15-20 HR, 70 RBI and probably a .350+ OB%.

 

Well, except for the fact that he's never had that kind of season before and he's entering his age 33 season.

[E.J.]

Also this tidbit was interesting/confusing:

 

Since Andy MacPhail took over as Cubs president in late 1994, the Cubs never have had a player go to a hearing, where an arbitrator picks one figure or the other.

 

That all could change come Friday with Ohman, with whom the Cubs don’t seem close to an agreement.

 

Weren't they the closest numberswise? Like only 50k or something?

 

Yep. Don't really understand why the Cubs are fighting over $250K. They have no problem dishing out the money to Perez, Eyre, Howry, but when it comes to Ohman they're penny pinching.

 

Suntimes

 

Strangely enough, the Cubs could be battling left-handed reliever Will Ohman in Tampa, Fla., this Friday in front of an arbiter over what appears to be small change in the big picture.

 

But Cubs officials seem to feel strongly that Ohman overpriced himself from the team perspective of slotting salaries when he filed a salary arbitration number of $775,000. The club countered at the time with $500,000 and apparently may be willing to stretch that to $575,000 or so.

 

However, the Cubs also seem prepared to go to that hearing if Ohman insists that he is deserving of much more. Ohman has had three elbow surgeries and missed 2002 and 2003. He finally emerged as a major-league pitcher last season and was 2-2 with a 2.91 earned-run-average in 69 games.

[Blueheart05]

If Todd Walker is not traded, stays healthy, and is our starting 2nd baseman, it is not unreasonable to expect a .290+ average, 80+ runs, 170+ hits, 15-20 HR, 70 RBI and probably a .350+ OB%.

 

That is a steal for 2.5 million, offensively.

 

The Red Sox didn't do so bad with Walker at 2nd base in 03. Despite being replaced in key situations for defensive reasons, his defensive statistics were not horrible, and he made some outstanding plays in the playoffs, not to mention his lights-out hitting.

 

Todd Walker is our best bet at 2nd base. Unless there is a trade for Julio Lugo....

 

The 2003 Red Sox and 2006 Cubs are not similiar. The Red Sox offense was able to overcome the defensive shortcommings on that team (Ramirez & Walker for example). However, Walker was horrible defensively in 2003. IIRC, he was the absolute worst 2B at turning the double play in all the Major Leagues. Undoubtedly, that lack of defensive execution put additional stress on the pitching staff by allowing teams more chances to score.

 

By contrast, the Cubs will rely much more heavily on their pitching and defense in 2006 because their offense doesn't appear to be capable of scoring more than 4 runs a game consistently. Add to that a starting staff that may struggle, collectively, to pitch into the sixth inning because of likely limitations with pitch counts (Wood & Miller) age (Maddux) and stamina (Williams?). IMO, it's the only explanation for why the Cubs are seeking to upgrade Walker at 2B

 

A run scored is equal to a run prevented. Doesn't it make just as much sense to want to improve the already weak offense at the expense of what is already a good defense, compared to greatly downgrading the offense at the expense of defense in a not very important defensive position.

 

 

I'm not certain that they are equal in Walker's case. Certainly, Aramis Ramirez's offense outweighs his defensive limitations at 3B but I don't know if the Cubs can afford to give up extra outs (on missed plays or errors) because of a porous defense up the middle. Given the makeup of the pitching staff, it doesn't surprise me that the Cubs aren't guaranteeing Walker a starting job. I think the Cubs are willing to sacrifice Walker's offense in hopes that a better defender will keep opponent's points off the board.

 

In looking at the numbers, I was surprised to see that, overall, Cubs pitchers depend more on getting outs via the ground ball than in the air. Wood is predominantly a flyball pitcher (as are Eyre and Howry). Plus, Wuertz and Novoa appear to be flyball pitchers but Prior's ratio (excluding 2005) is close enough for me to question whether he would benefit greatly from having a stronger defensive infield. In 2005, Prior had a 50 point difference between his AO and GO but in the three seasons before the average was closer to 29 points. Is that disparity attributed to his arm fracture, the MI defense, or both? It's not an easy question to answer however, if his injury is to blame, for the extra fly balls, it seems logical that the number of GO will increase in 2006 (assuming he is completely healthy). Furthermore, guys like Wellemeyer, Hill, Williamson, and Rusch are either in the middle or are only slightly dependent on the flyball. Whereas, Williams, Maddux, Zambrano, Miller, and Dempster all heavily rely on groundouts.

 

Edit: I'm surprised that you said 2B is not an important defensive position. 2B and SS are arguably two of the most important defensive positions on a team.

Edited January 31, 2006 by Blueheart05

[CubinNY]

Conspicuously absent is talk of Zambrano's contract. I hope that is a good sign that they are close to terms

[Tracer Bullet]

If Todd Walker is not traded, stays healthy, and is our starting 2nd baseman, it is not unreasonable to expect a .290+ average, 80+ runs, 170+ hits, 15-20 HR, 70 RBI and probably a .350+ OB%.

 

Well, except for the fact that he's never had that kind of season before and he's entering his age 33 season.

 

Really? In '02, didn't he put up a .299/.353/.431 line with 79 runs, 183 hits, 11 dingers, 64 RBI (not to mention 42 doubles) for the Reds. The HR are a little low, but not a whole lot. He's never hit more than 15 homers, so I'd estimate 10-15 homers this year, but otherwise I think the stats Meathead suggested are reasonable.

[JeffH]

...otherwise I think the stats Meathead suggested are reasonable.

 

The stats suggested are pretty much on the high end in every category. It's probably overly optimistic to expect all of them ON TOP of expecting him to be healthy enough to put in 150+ games.

 

That said, I hope they keep him and play him a lot. He's the best fit at 2B and at #2 in the batting order, given our current personnel.

[CuseCubFan69]

Conspicuously absent is talk of Zambrano's contract. I hope that is a good sign that they are close to terms

 

Let's hope so. What are the estimates for his contract?

[Tracer Bullet]

...otherwise I think the stats Meathead suggested are reasonable.

 

The stats suggested are pretty much on the high end in every category. It's probably overly optimistic to expect all of them ON TOP of expecting him to be healthy enough to put in 150+ games.

 

That said, I hope they keep him and play him a lot. He's the best fit at 2B and at #2 in the batting order, given our current personnel.

 

I don't dispute that those are on the high end of TW's performance, but given Meathead's qualifiers (stays healthy and is our starting 2nd), those numbers are reasonable. I was just disputing your statement that he'd never put up a similar line before. He has - the last time he was healthy enough to start 150 games.

 

I don't think it's overly optimistic to expect those numbers if he's healthy. It may be optimistic to think he'll be healthy for the whole season, but if he is, it's certainly reasonable think he'd put up the line Meathead suggested.

 

I just hope that he's healthy this year and wearing Cubbie blue.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Suprised that more people aren't complaining about the Hairston contract #'s. Beside the fact that he was horrible last year and has a tendency to get hurt, there is no way that he warranted $2.5 M to sit on the bench all year. Especially, when you already have 2 guys that play 2B making $2.5 each.

 

So the Cubs are paying 3 guys that can play 2B approx $2.5? Seems like the money could be spent in a better way. Hendry seems to be wasting far too much money on these types of contracts.

 

$2.5M Walker, $2.5M Neifi, $3M Rusch, $2.5 Hairston, $1.5 Blanco, $1M Mabry. That's over $10M for bench players.

 

Blanco is worth $1.5M IMO, but the rest is wasteful.

 

How is Walker wasteful? If he's not starting this year, I'd agree. But overall, 2.5 mil for Walker is a solid price.

 

Walker isn't wasteful by himself, but paying 2.5M+ for each of our 2B is (all 3 of them, lol).

[JeffH]

Let's hope so. What are the estimates for his contract?

 

I've got him at $6.9. That's a 75-25 split of the difference between the two figures, in Zambrano's favor.

[goonys evil twin]

I've got no problem paying Hairston $2.5m as a bench man. The guy who is getting wasteful amounts of money is Neifi, because he clearly sucks. Hairston at least gives you a shot at decent numbers. Neifi is a lock for bad numbers. I wouldn't have much of a problem with a straight up $5m platoon of Walker and Hairston. There's nothing wrong with spending on the bench. A couple bench players are going to end up with nearly as many plate appearances as many starters get anyway. The key is spending that money on guys who have a chance to contribute, as opposed to guys who are guaranteed to fail.

[CuseCubFan69]

I've got no problem paying Hairston $2.5m as a bench man. The guy who is getting wasteful amounts of money is Neifi, because he clearly sucks. Hairston at least gives you a shot at decent numbers. Neifi is a lock for bad numbers. I wouldn't have much of a problem with a straight up $5m platoon of Walker and Hairston. There's nothing wrong with spending on the bench. A couple bench players are going to end up with nearly as many plate appearances as many starters get anyway. The key is spending that money on guys who have a chance to contribute, as opposed to guys who are guaranteed to fail.

 

If Johnny B can keep Perez in the 25th man role the Cubs may get a chance to compete.

[Balsa]

I've got no problem paying Hairston $2.5m as a bench man. The guy who is getting wasteful amounts of money is Neifi, because he clearly sucks. Hairston at least gives you a shot at decent numbers. Neifi is a lock for bad numbers. I wouldn't have much of a problem with a straight up $5m platoon of Walker and Hairston. There's nothing wrong with spending on the bench. A couple bench players are going to end up with nearly as many plate appearances as many starters get anyway. The key is spending that money on guys who have a chance to contribute, as opposed to guys who are guaranteed to fail.

 

Sure, he sucks with the bat. But I would love him to come in for a late inning defensive replacement of Todd Walker or Ronny Cedeno if we need to hold a lead. His glove really is outstanding. But I'll agree he is paid too much.

 

And hell, we never know, maybe Cedeno will be a bust of DuBois proportions this year, and we'll be glad to have Neifi as a backup SS, until we can get one at the trading deadline.

[goonys evil twin]

I've got no problem paying Hairston $2.5m as a bench man. The guy who is getting wasteful amounts of money is Neifi, because he clearly sucks. Hairston at least gives you a shot at decent numbers. Neifi is a lock for bad numbers. I wouldn't have much of a problem with a straight up $5m platoon of Walker and Hairston. There's nothing wrong with spending on the bench. A couple bench players are going to end up with nearly as many plate appearances as many starters get anyway. The key is spending that money on guys who have a chance to contribute, as opposed to guys who are guaranteed to fail.

 

Sure, he sucks with the bat. But I would love him to come in for a late inning defensive replacement of Todd Walker or Ronny Cedeno if we need to hold a lead. His glove really is outstanding. But I'll agree he is paid too much..

 

I wouldn't. I think just as often as the better glove helps you, you end up losing the lead some other and need the better bat later on. I've seen too many games where the better hitters were on the bench after being double switched for defense late and the team needed to score. Most runs are scored in some way other than a middle infielder not getting to a ball. And most times an average fielder doesn't get to a ball that a great fielder would have, that guy doesn't even score anyway.

[Balsa]

Well if it makes you feel better, Neifi is a better shortstop than Jack Wilson.

[CuseCubFan69]

I've got no problem paying Hairston $2.5m as a bench man. The guy who is getting wasteful amounts of money is Neifi, because he clearly sucks. Hairston at least gives you a shot at decent numbers. Neifi is a lock for bad numbers. I wouldn't have much of a problem with a straight up $5m platoon of Walker and Hairston. There's nothing wrong with spending on the bench. A couple bench players are going to end up with nearly as many plate appearances as many starters get anyway. The key is spending that money on guys who have a chance to contribute, as opposed to guys who are guaranteed to fail.

 

Sure, he sucks with the bat. But I would love him to come in for a late inning defensive replacement of Todd Walker or Ronny Cedeno if we need to hold a lead. His glove really is outstanding. But I'll agree he is paid too much..

 

I wouldn't. I think just as often as the better glove helps you, you end up losing the lead some other and need the better bat later on. I've seen too many games where the better hitters were on the bench after being double switched for defense late and the team needed to score. Most runs are scored in some way other than a middle infielder not getting to a ball. And most times an average fielder doesn't get to a ball that a great fielder would have, that guy doesn't even score anyway.

 

Oh Lord I forgot about Bakers famous double switches....thanks for bringing that up. :x

[SouthSideRyan]

I said 2B isn't that important of a position because the only position I would choose a poor offensive player who's great at defense over vice versa would be SS and CF. And even then it's gotta be an extreme case. Neifi is just too horrible on offense to balance out the defensive differences. Hairston isn't great enough on defense to really make a difference to me as to whether him or Walker play.

[Bull]

I said 2B isn't that important of a position because the only position I would choose a poor offensive player who's great at defense over vice versa would be SS and CF. And even then it's gotta be an extreme case. Neifi is just too horrible on offense to balance out the defensive differences. Hairston isn't great enough on defense to really make a difference to me as to whether him or Walker play.

 

And Catcher. And 2B.