Where do the Cubs go from here?

[TheDude]

I'm not speaking in generalities, I'm speaking toward specific trends. Saying that certain parts of the lineup "matchup" is meaningless. Those parts have "matched up" before and still led to consistently better offense from STL. The fact is Pujols is likely to outproduce Lee, and Rolen could easily outproduce Ramirez if he plays just as long. Last year Ramirez outperformed because he had more games, and Lee slightly outperformed because he had a career year, and the teams were still not close in the rankings. The Cubs don't have anybody who comes close to Edmonds. STL is significantly better offensively than the Cubs. They've been significantly better for quite a while, and they will be, more likely than not, significantly better in 2006.

 

I'm sorry, but I'm just not buying your argument. You're basically saying Edmonds is the reason the Cardinals are significantly better than the Cubs in offensive production heading into 2006.

 

The Cardinals haven't made any improvements to the daily lineup. And Bigbie/Encarnacion < Sanders/Walker, while Spivey/Cruz < Grudz. So they've taken steps backward at three positions.

 

Meanwhile, the Cubs are improved in CF and lateral with all other replacements.

[cubfan1955]

I'm not talking about normal teams. I'm talking about the Cubs. There has been a consistent pattern of attendance increasing the year following a successful season, and attendance decreasing a year following a bad season. 2004 saw greater attendance than 2003. Despite the lack of playoffs in 2004, people still saw a 1 win improvement in the record, and had great hope for continued success, plus they were still riding the euphoria of the biggest playoff buzz from the year before. This is why 2005 still saw high attendance. But the disaster that was last season, and the unimpressive offseason is going to cause a decline this season. Not to mention those bandwagon fans that will flock to the southside more often this year. I'm not saying the Cubs will go from 3 million to 2 million, and the CWS will go from 2 million to 3 million. The Cubs will still get close to capacity, and still be the team in Chicago, but the spread will narrow.

 

It's possible...but I'll believe it when I see it. IMO the best thing that could happen to the Cubs is if all of the bandwagoners do head to the south side. That's the only way it will wake up the the Trib suits.

[Tim]

The Cubs under Hendry have consistently been one of the teams that has added the most firepower during the season.

 

Hendry adds names, but he doesn't make the team better.

 

Houston has the luxury of money being available this year, money that still might go to Roger after May.

Ramirez & Lofton didn't make the team better in 2003?

 

Nomar didn't work out in 2004, but it wasn't because of that move. It was one of the best deadline deals that season.

 

The Cubs made one of the better deals in 2005, there just wasn't a whole lot of movement made.

 

You still haven't shown what Houston has done that is so great that makes you so certain that they'll improve more during the season than the Cubs.

[goonys evil twin]

I'm not speaking in generalities, I'm speaking toward specific trends. Saying that certain parts of the lineup "matchup" is meaningless. Those parts have "matched up" before and still led to consistently better offense from STL. The fact is Pujols is likely to outproduce Lee, and Rolen could easily outproduce Ramirez if he plays just as long. Last year Ramirez outperformed because he had more games, and Lee slightly outperformed because he had a career year, and the teams were still not close in the rankings. The Cubs don't have anybody who comes close to Edmonds. STL is significantly better offensively than the Cubs. They've been significantly better for quite a while, and they will be, more likely than not, significantly better in 2006.

 

I'm sorry, but I'm just not buying your argument. You're basically saying Edmonds is the reason the Cardinals are significantly better than the Cubs in offensive production heading into 2006.

 

The Cardinals haven't made any improvements to the daily lineup. And Bigbie/Encarnacion < Sanders/Walker, while Spivey/Cruz < Grudz. So they've taken steps backward at three positions.

 

Meanwhile, the Cubs are improved in CF and lateral with all other replacements.

 

You don't have to buy my argument, just look at the results.

 

If you want to use the Lee/Ramirez matchup with Rolen/Pujols argument, then you have to throw in Edmonds, who outclasses any remaining Cubs. The Cards haven't made improvements, but they didn't have to in order to still be better than the Cubs. The Cubs are improved in CF, but they went from 16th in OPS last year, to the guy who led his team to 15th in OPS. In other words, the total production is still not there. And they are likely to put Neifi out there even more than he was last year, starting at 2B or maybe even SS.

 

STL went in with a far better lineup. They may have downgraded a little, but a full season of Rolen could easily negate any decline. The Cubs went in with a far inferior lineup, and they've improved marginally. It just doesn't add up to anything resembling an even matchup.

[UK1679666180]

The Astros over the last two years have shown an unusual ability to play better as the season progresses, that's well documented.

 

Flip a coin as far as which will have the better record next year at this stage. That'll be decided by injuries, unusual player flucuations, mid-season moves. Neither are great in-game managers, I think Garner gets more out of his talent than Baker, though.

 

As far as the Cubs/Cards line-up. Rolen coming back will be huge for their team, even though Nunez had a fluke year. It'll be a close race as far as runs scored and how the line-ups will be made up will play a role.

 

If Neifi is starting at 2B, STL will score more runs unless some players go beyond their expected production or fall short. W/Walker or Hairston starting at 2B, it'll be interesting.

[Tim]

The Astros over the last two years have shown an unusual ability to play better as the season progresses, that's well documented.

 

Flip a coin as far as which will have the better record next year at this stage. That'll be decided by injuries, unusual player flucuations, mid-season moves. Neither are great in-game managers, I think Garner gets more out of his talent than Baker, though.

In 2004, they added Beltran to get that boost. In 2005, Berkman came back from knee surgery and lifted the offense. I don't think they really have any secret formula.

 

Keep in mind that they also choked away the division in 2003.

[goonys evil twin]

Pujols outproducing Lee is a given however, Rolen easily outproducing Ramirez is not a given, chances are it'll be the other way around. It's been argued Jones being 30 is more likely to decline in production, well, Rolen is the wrong side of 30. Why wouldn't the decline in production argument apply to him as well? Whereas Ramirez has shown marked improvement the last three seasons and is still on the right side of 30, there's a very good chance Ramirez will equal if not better Rolen' production in 2006.

 

Jones is a crappy player, Rolen isn't. Rolen at 30 could repeat his career averages and equal Ramirez's produciton. Jones at his career averages still sucks.

 

The fact is that STL was much better in 2005 and they got nothing out of Rolen. One has to assume they'll get something out of him this year, and they will probably get solid production out of him, which erases any improvements the Cubs made, by a wide margin. He doesn't have to outproduce Ramirez, or even produce the same as Ramirez, in order for STL to still be better offensively than the Cubs. Although my guess is he and Aramis will be pretty similar in 2006. And if Ramirez does have a higher OPS, it will be through superior SLG, and not OBP, which is the Cubs biggest weakness.

[goonys evil twin]

In 2004, they added Beltran to get that boost. In 2005, Berkman came back from knee surgery and lifted the offense. I don't think they really have any secret formula.

 

Keep in mind that they also choked away the division in 2003.

 

And they have 6 playoff appearances since 97, 5 straight .500+ seasons (9 out of 10). They've done all this with a significantly lower payroll than the Cubs. Houston's management deserves the benefit of the doubt that they'll make the right moves, much more so than the Cubs management.

 

I'm not sure about a secret formula, but it doesn't have to be secret. Houston does a better job with their farm, they do a better job of maximizing results/payroll, they consistently get the job done.

 

As of now, they are similar, but Houston has a far better track record, and therefore has to get the nod when thinking about how it'll end.

[Tim]

In 2004, they added Beltran to get that boost. In 2005, Berkman came back from knee surgery and lifted the offense. I don't think they really have any secret formula.

 

Keep in mind that they also choked away the division in 2003.

 

And they have 6 playoff appearances since 97, 5 straight .500+ seasons (9 out of 10). They've done all this with a significantly lower payroll than the Cubs. Houston's management deserves the benefit of the doubt that they'll make the right moves, much more so than the Cubs management.

 

I'm not sure about a secret formula, but it doesn't have to be secret. Houston does a better job with their farm, they do a better job of maximizing results/payroll, they consistently get the job done.

 

As of now, they are similar, but Houston has a far better track record, and therefore has to get the nod when thinking about how it'll end.

Goony, I'm surprised to see you giving that much credit to a team's management based on past results. Just because they've been historically good or bad says very little about this roster. They achieved those results because they had two HOF players anchoring the lineup while also having other very good pieces to the offensive puzzle, combined with solid pitching.

 

That simply doesn't look as good this year.

[UK1679666180]

The Astros over the last two years have shown an unusual ability to play better as the season progresses, that's well documented.

 

Flip a coin as far as which will have the better record next year at this stage. That'll be decided by injuries, unusual player flucuations, mid-season moves. Neither are great in-game managers, I think Garner gets more out of his talent than Baker, though.

In 2004, they added Beltran to get that boost. In 2005, Berkman came back from knee surgery and lifted the offense. I don't think they really have any secret formula.

 

Keep in mind that they also choked away the division in 2003.

 

No player in history could contribute that much for a rebound like that occur in either '04 or '05. In '03, Williams was there and Garner took over in '04 (halfway I believe).

 

Berkman or Beltran can't have that dramatic of an impact, it certainly helped, but it wasn't all or nothing.

Edited January 9, 2006 by UK

[goonys evil twin]

Goony, I'm surprised to see you giving that much credit to a team's management based on past results. Just because they've been historically good or bad says very little about this roster. They achieved those results because they had two HOF players anchoring the lineup while also having other very good pieces to the offensive puzzle, combined with solid pitching.

 

That simply doesn't look as good this year.

 

I'm basing it on past, and recent, results, along with the current roster. I think the current roster is comparable to the Cubs, but their ability to consistently get the job done makes me think that they will have a better chance to improve the team later than the Cubs will. Besides, past results are the most important thing, the trend is your friend.

 

The Cubs would have to drastically change who they are in order to maximize their chances, not because they are unlucky lovable losers, or any other junk like that, but because they are an inefficiently run team that lacks a solid organizational plan. Houston just has to stay the course to get the most out of their team.

[RockTheIvy]

I think St. Louis is still the team to beat going into this season. But they have some serious question marks as well. They added Juan Encarnacion, who had a decent season last year, but was above his career norms (.268/.316/.440). I would bet he'd regress towards that line. They lost Grudz and Sanders, replacing them with garbage and Very Taguchi. Their pitching staff lost Morris, replacing him with the Pontoon Boat and they also feature a revamped pen. The core is still together and is probably the best 3-4-5 in baseball. I'd say Edmonds would decline next year if I hadn't been saying it for the past 3 years. I do wonder how Rolen will return, coming off of another injury.

 

I think that our ability to compete with St. Louis depends on three things: a) Somebody other than Neifi! playing everyday, be it at SS or 2B b) Murton's development and c) the pitching. I think, if Dusty uses the players right, which I realize is a huge if, the Cubs have a chance to surprise a lot of people.

[frostwyrm]

So has Hendry officially given up on getting another SS?

[goonys evil twin]

So has Hendry officially given up on getting another SS?

 

He just got one from Baltimore.

 

Obviously I don't know for sure, but I think he's done with SS, considering there isn't much else out there, unless the Lugo talk increases. My guess is he's happy with Cedeno and more than happy with the idea of Perez as the backup. I wonder though if all this talk about SS this winter means he's really not as hot on Ronny as would be expected by his aggressive promotion of Cedeno earlier in his career.

 

Maybe he'll look for another 2B so Neifi can start at SS.

[RockTheIvy]

So has Hendry officially given up on getting another SS?

 

He just got one from Baltimore.

 

Obviously I don't know for sure, but I think he's done with SS, considering there isn't much else out there, unless the Lugo talk increases. My guess is he's happy with Cedeno and more than happy with the idea of Perez as the backup. I wonder though if all this talk about SS this winter means he's really not as hot on Ronny as would be expected by his aggressive promotion of Cedeno earlier in his career.

 

Maybe he'll look for another 2B so Neifi can start at SS.

 

God I hope he just starts Cedeno. Being a quality offensive SS in the National League is really not that difficult. Cedeno, IMO, could easily be a top 5 SS next year.

[goonys evil twin]

Cedeno, IMO, could easily be a top 5 SS next year.

 

I really doubt that. I'm hoping he's averagem, anything more would be greedy.

[UK1679666180]

Their pitching staff lost Morris, replacing him with the Pontoon Boat

 

Although I want the Pig Unit to start, I assume at this stage it'll be Reyes over Ponson. I don't expect any drop-off from Morris to Reyes, maybe some improvement depending on how the league adjusts to him and then how he adjusts to the adjustment.