It's time to start Rich Hill

[goonys evil twin]

So the question is, in my mind, how will we use him this year ???

 

If we're lucky they'll use him as trade bait, or as little as possible.

[Blizzau]

Should we call what the Cubs have done the "Miseducation of Rich Hill"?

 

Well played. 8)

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I don't get the Hill love. I realize fans love the guys who K a shyteload of guys, especially when that guy is left handed, but Hill is just NOT that good beyond it.

 

The K's are impressive, and yes they indicate good stuff but high K/high BB guys tend to get overrated (Wood, Nolan Ryan). They are rarely as good as the press they get.

 

Hill was consistently 2+ years older than a prospect should be in the league he's in, and beyond the K's he never really dominated. He walked a TON of guys, and he gives up HRs at horrific rate. Its Eric Milton-esque how HR prone he was last year.

 

He only has two pitches, an 89-93 fastball that is pretty straight and he doesn't locate very well, NOT a good combo. His curveball is a dominant pitch, but you can't get by on one pitch and hope to god you can sneak some fastball by them before you throw it.

 

Plus he'll be 26. He's older than both Prior and Zambrano and he's only a year younger than the guy people think he can be (Zito).

 

I mean the POTENTIAL to be a great pitcher is there, but he's got alot of work to do. He's gotta get better control (I mean make it a trend, not a one year thing), he's gotta figure out this gopherball problems. Yes, I know last year was his first year with seeming HR problems, but it was also the first time he was in the upper minors where his big curve won't just dominate guys, and the year before he gave up HRs at a decent rate for a 24 year old in the FSL.

 

If anything I was hoping we would include Hill in a deal for Wilkerson or Bradley...but thats not happening. That woulda made us MUCH better.

 

Nolasco might actually even be the better prospect and pitcher in the future...sucks.

[UK1679666180]

When you're stating "start Hill over Rusch", I wouldn't say that person was overstating the value of Hill, but they're unhappy with the other option (Rusch). I'd have no problem w/sending Hill to Iowa and still smoothing out the rough edges, I'd prefer to see more from the #5 than what Rusch will likely provide.

[abuck1220]

i had my dates wrong. looks like rusch was acceptable once the cubs were comfortably out of it. this is the run i was referring to (8/15-8/31)...

 

vs. hou 3 2/3 ip, 10 h, 5 er

vs. col 6 ip, 7 h, 3 r (2 er)

vs. fla 4 2/3, 8 h, 5 r (4 er)

vs. la 2 ip, 7 h, 7 er

 

his era went up nearly a run during that four game stretch. i guess that gets you a shiny new 2 year deal and likely a spot in the rotation.

 

Rusch's season bears some closer scrutiny. The first line below covers 15 IP in relief in April and 5 starts in May where Rusch was pretty effective while posting a 4-1 record. During those 5 starts, Rusch put up pitch counts of 81, 90, 99, 108, and 113.

 

Then came his 6th and best start of the year on 02 June (2nd line below). Take note of the pitch count... 122 !!

 

The next section, line 3, covers four very bad starts followed by 7 weeks in the bullpen, followed by four more starts in late August (the ones you referenced above).

 

All of that is followed by the five September starts I mentioned earlier and repeated on the 4th line below.

 

Rusch                IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
04/04 - 06/01      46.0   45   12   12   23   33    1   787  4.50  6.46  0.20  1.48  2.35
06/02               9.0    4    0    0    1    7    0   122  1.00  7.00  0.00  0.56  0.00
06/03 - 08/31      58.3   92   54   49   23   52   10  1142  3.55  8.02  1.54  1.97  7.56
09/02 - 10/02      31.7   34   13   12    6   19    3   511  1.71  5.40  0.85  1.26  3.41

 

Seems to me, that Dusty pushed him until he broke, and it took him fully 3 months to recover from the resulting "tired arm".

 

So the question is, in my mind, how will we use him this year ???

 

i admire the work you've put in, and i don't mean to trivialize it by saying that i'm more inclined to attribute rusch's inconsistency to the fact that he's just not a very good pitcher...as opposed to a one time PC abuse by baker. sure, he had some good outings, but he also had his fair share of bad ones. and given his 2005 #'s, the bad far outnumbered the good. that, combined w/ the fact that his career #'s just flat out suck lead me to believe that he's just not very good, abuse or not.

 

i'm starting to think that hendry has to irrationally 'repay' the guys who he took a chance on that worked out (rusch, neifi, dempster). if he doesn't, then they don't look like such great finds.

[abuck1220]

 

He only has two pitches, an 89-93 fastball that is pretty straight and he doesn't locate very well, NOT a good combo. His curveball is a dominant pitch, but you can't get by on one pitch and hope to god you can sneak some fastball by them before you throw it.

 

 

from BA...

 

Hill's 12-to-6 curveball is often unhittable, and batters can't sit on it now that he can locate his 90-91 mph fastball. His changeup shows promise and would give him the third pitch he requires to remain a starter.

 

I mean the POTENTIAL to be a great pitcher is there, but he's got alot of work to do. He's gotta get better control (I mean make it a trend, not a one year thing), he's gotta figure out this gopherball problems. Yes, I know last year was his first year with seeming HR problems, but it was also the first time he was in the upper minors where his big curve won't just dominate guys, and the year before he gave up HRs at a decent rate for a 24 year old in the FSL.

 

so you won't give him credit for having only one year of good control, but you think he has to fix his HR problem even though it's only been a one year thing?

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I kinda explain the one year thing when it comes to the HRs.

 

Its pretty simple to explain. In the lower minors a guy with a nasty breaking ball usually dominates, especially if his fastball can get by guys. So he racked up big K's and the hitters were much too young and inexperienced to get him. Being a few years older and more experienced no doubt helped.

 

So why did he walk less guys last year and gave up more HRs? I think he took the Zack Greinke approach to pitching, chuck it down the middle and hope for the best. Lots of good things did happen because again, he has good stuff for a lefty, he still kept his K rate up and his walks DID go down. But the HRs are very worrisome, and even though it was a small sample size I was not impressed with how he looked during his call up.

 

His fastball is straight, so less guys are going to chase the curve up in the big leagues until he proves he can get his fastball there. And it doesn't help that he never even showed a hint of a changeup.

 

No offense to BA, I respect them and generally they are my top source for prospects, but they do have a tendency to make guys look much better than they are. And even more irritating to me is that few of these are first hand accounts, most are just talk amonst managers and scouts, and we all know that they can fall in love with a guy, they sometimes look for a guys highest cieling and stay in that mindset without the likeliness of them reaching it and...so on.

[abuck1220]

so what are you basing your feelings of hill on? solely what you've seen of hill during his short stint in the big leagues? seems to me that you're basing much of your feelings on what you've heard and read.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Meh. I've explained my logic beyond why I'm not such a big fan. As much as I think Hill is talented, he has alot more Eric Milton than Barry Zito in him (and Barry Zito has alot more Milton in him than he's shown too).

 

Maybe if he comes back next year and shows me this same kind of control I'll warm up, but from what I've seen and been able to deduce, its because he's decided his curveball >>> his fastball so just chucking his fastball up there seems like a good idea to set up that curve.

 

I'm not so down on him I don't think he can be SOMETHING, but I think that SOMETHING is either a lefty killing LOOGY or a very homer prone, walks prone starter with only two pitches.

 

If you want more...I might also add that his arm action will give him a pretty meh changeup and he should start working on a cutter/slider type pitch. That could put him over the top actually...

 

I'm not down on the guy more than I am completely sure he's the type of pitcher who translates well to the big leagues.

[Magnetic Curses]

Meh. I've explained my logic beyond why I'm not such a big fan. As much as I think Hill is talented, he has alot more Eric Milton than Barry Zito in him (and Barry Zito has alot more Milton in him than he's shown too).

 

Maybe if he comes back next year and shows me this same kind of control I'll warm up, but from what I've seen and been able to deduce, its because he's decided his curveball >>> his fastball so just chucking his fastball up there seems like a good idea to set up that curve.

 

I'm not so down on him I don't think he can be SOMETHING, but I think that SOMETHING is either a lefty killing LOOGY or a very homer prone, walks prone starter with only two pitches.

 

If you want more...I might also add that his arm action will give him a pretty meh changeup and he should start working on a cutter/slider type pitch. That could put him over the top actually...

 

I'm not down on the guy more than I am completely sure he's the type of pitcher who translates well to the big leagues.

 

i don't think that you can say that he's more milton than zito (although i find the zito-milton comparison farfetched as well) without seeing him get a few more starts under his belt. you can't just throw a guy out there for a few starts and some relief appearances and declare him a bust or a star.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I didn't JUST get it from his time in the majors. Thats just when what I had theorized about him seemed to be proven right. His fastball is straight, he doesn't locate it all that well he kinda just chucks it and hope they swing and miss. Hence his HR problems, and the better control.

 

It just seems to fit. And off the top of my head I just said lefty with decent but straight fastball, and good curveball who gives up alot of HRs ...Eric Milton.

 

Now for Zito I meant that in any other park or with any other team, he'd probably give up a few more hits than he does and alot more HRs than he does. He's not nearly as bad as Milton (and Hill probably won't be), but he does have some similarities to Milton.

[Magnetic Curses]

I didn't JUST get it from his time in the majors. Thats just when what I had theorized about him seemed to be proven right. His fastball is straight, he doesn't locate it all that well he kinda just chucks it and hope they swing and miss. Hence his HR problems, and the better control.

 

judging from his AA numbers, it would appear that he was locating his fastball quite well. and it has been a plus pitch for him in the past, so what makes you think that it's too straight and he doesn't locate it?

 

It just seems to fit. And off the top of my head I just said lefty with decent but straight fastball, and good curveball who gives up alot of HRs ...Eric Milton.

 

Now for Zito I meant that in any other park or with any other team, he'd probably give up a few more hits than he does and alot more HRs than he does. He's not nearly as bad as Milton (and Hill probably won't be), but he does have some similarities to Milton.

 

the thing that makes zito so great ISN'T his curveball alone, it's the fact that one cannot tell the difference between his curveball and fastball until it's too late. i think this is where we get the comparison to hill.

 

it's not just because he's a lefty with a good curve. hill has been successful in disguising his curveball in AA, which has made him pretty hard to hit. this also makes his curveball a double pitch, so to speak. not only is it a very good curveball, but also acts as a changeup if it's a hanger.

 

so, the fact that you can say that hill only has 2 pitches is misleading. he pitches at 2 speeds effectively, thus far. the lefties who can do this are generally successful at whatever level they're at.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

judging from his AA numbers, it would appear that he was locating his fastball quite well. and it has been a plus pitch for him in the past, so what makes you think that it's too straight and he doesn't locate it?

 

The HR rate. Check out guys like Greinke and Milton. OK, even very good control...but horrible disgusting HR rates.

 

What that implies to me is that they:

 

A) Can't locate their fastball.

 

OR

 

B) Chuck the fastball up there and hope to fool hitters...which it rarely does as you move up.

 

I mean look at Greinke's minor league stats, it doesn't LOOK like he gives up a boatload of HRs but thats because he had such great breaking stuff and you can be damn good in the minors with decent velocity and great breaking stuff. Now balls fly out of the park against him, why? When you watch him pitch he is just tossing fastballs hoping it gets by hitters down the middle.

 

After seeing Hill I wasn't so shocked as to why when his control got better but his HR rate shot up. His fastball isn't anything special, and he doesn't even really seem to try to locate it.

 

MAYBE I'm wrong, but really from what I've seen in him, and from what I've seen of guys like him...I definitely don't see this as unreasonable.

[Magnetic Curses]

judging from his AA numbers, it would appear that he was locating his fastball quite well. and it has been a plus pitch for him in the past, so what makes you think that it's too straight and he doesn't locate it?

 

The HR rate. Check out guys like Greinke and Milton. OK, even very good control...but horrible disgusting HR rates.

 

What that implies to me is that they:

 

A) Can't locate their fastball.

 

OR

 

B) Chuck the fastball up there and hope to fool hitters...which it rarely does as you move up.

 

I mean look at Greinke's minor league stats, it doesn't LOOK like he gives up a boatload of HRs but thats because he had such great breaking stuff and you can be damn good in the minors with decent velocity and great breaking stuff. Now balls fly out of the park against him, why? When you watch him pitch he is just tossing fastballs hoping it gets by hitters down the middle.

 

After seeing Hill I wasn't so shocked as to why when his control got better but his HR rate shot up. His fastball isn't anything special, and he doesn't even really seem to try to locate it.

 

MAYBE I'm wrong, but really from what I've seen in him, and from what I've seen of guys like him...I definitely don't see this as unreasonable.

 

i just wouldn't compare hill to milton based on minor league numbers. milton has always had a terrible G/F ratio, his career average is .60. it's hard to maintain any sort of success with a ratio like that. most likely, he should be out of the league.

 

generally i associate HR-rate with a poor G/F ratio, which just means that his fastball doesn't have SINKING action.

 

milton gives up a HR every 5.9 innings, or has during his career, and the numbers haven't varied much from year to year, he's rock solid in his medicority.

 

zito's career G/F ratio isn't a whole lot better, but it consistently better: .87. In addition, he's given up a HR every 10 innings. I'd suggest this is a product of being a much more deceptive pitcher, if not being a great groundball pitcher.

 

I can't find Hill's overall G/F ratio, but he appears to be better than milton, granted in a much smaller sample size. His major league G/F ratio is 1.07. His career major/minor league HR-rate is one home run every 10.3 innings, which is actually better than Zito's, while his G/F ratio last season in 23 innings was better than Zito's career ratio.

 

meaning that either hill is just much more deceptive than milton or has much better sinking action on his fastball. i think the milton comparisons for hill are premature, let the kid see what he can do in 10 starts.

[CubinNY]

The thing about Rusch is that he is a 6 inning pitcher, just like Maddux. With him in the rotation the bullpen will get taxed. If Dusty continues to use his bp pitchers as in the past, that means the two or three best guys out of the pen will be used up by the ASB.

[frostwyrm]

I agree with those who think Hill's career has reached the point where you have to play him or trade him. I was hoping he would be traded while his value was high but it looks like it won't happen. I really don't want him used as a reliever. Hendry blew huge bucks on the bullpen and those guys need to earn their dough. Hill should remain a starter until he proves he can't hack it.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'm curious on Bakers mindset and if he is going to be in a "Win at all costs" mode this season. This would worry me since in Bakers mind young players would even be worse off than before...if that's possible. If this is the case Hill would have to be lights out right from the start or risk being sent to the pen and wasted until Hendry sends him back to Iowa.

[frostwyrm]

I can see Rusch being this year's Shawn Estes and Hill being this year's Juan Cruz. Rusch will definitely get multiple chances to redeem any failures. I still wonder how Cruz' career would have turned out if he had never been converted to relief. He was really a pretty good starter. Hill could face the same fate.

[CuseCubFan69]

I can see Rusch being this year's Shawn Estes and Hill being this year's Juan Cruz. Rusch will definitely get multiple chances to redeem any failures. I still wonder how Cruz' career would have turned out if he had never been converted to relief. He was really a pretty good starter. Hill could face the same fate.

 

I always wondered about Cruz and his work habits. We we're privy to that information but something just didn't add up IMO.

 

I see Rusch as having a good year, for him. 13-9 3.80 ERA kind of year. I like the OF's that the Cubs have ability wise to catch fly balls and that is what Rusch gives up quite a bit.

[Magnetic Curses]

I can see Rusch being this year's Shawn Estes and Hill being this year's Juan Cruz. Rusch will definitely get multiple chances to redeem any failures. I still wonder how Cruz' career would have turned out if he had never been converted to relief. He was really a pretty good starter. Hill could face the same fate.

 

I always wondered about Cruz and his work habits. We we're privy to that information but something just didn't add up IMO.

 

I see Rusch as having a good year, for him. 13-9 3.80 ERA kind of year. I like the OF's that the Cubs have ability wise to catch fly balls and that is what Rusch gives up quite a bit.

 

actually, rusch's career G/F ratio is a decent 1.19.

[wastra]

I can see Rusch being this year's Shawn Estes and Hill being this year's Juan Cruz. Rusch will definitely get multiple chances to redeem any failures. I still wonder how Cruz' career would have turned out if he had never been converted to relief. He was really a pretty good starter. Hill could face the same fate.

 

I always wondered about Cruz and his work habits. We we're privy to that information but something just didn't add up IMO.

 

I see Rusch as having a good year, for him. 13-9 3.80 ERA kind of year. I like the OF's that the Cubs have ability wise to catch fly balls and that is what Rusch gives up quite a bit.

 

I'll take that kind of year in a heartbeat from Rusch. I doubt we'll get it, but I'd be thrilled if it happened.

[Magnetic Curses]

I can see Rusch being this year's Shawn Estes and Hill being this year's Juan Cruz. Rusch will definitely get multiple chances to redeem any failures. I still wonder how Cruz' career would have turned out if he had never been converted to relief. He was really a pretty good starter. Hill could face the same fate.

 

I always wondered about Cruz and his work habits. We we're privy to that information but something just didn't add up IMO.

 

I see Rusch as having a good year, for him. 13-9 3.80 ERA kind of year. I like the OF's that the Cubs have ability wise to catch fly balls and that is what Rusch gives up quite a bit.

 

I'll take that kind of year in a heartbeat from Rusch. I doubt we'll get it, but I'd be thrilled if it happened.

 

i don't think there's really any chance of that happening. just put hill out there and use rusch in spot and long situations. that's really the only way of using him effectively. he's a bad option for the rotation and a bad option for regular bullpen duty. the only thing he's useful doing is absorbing innings-either in mop up duty or flipping a coin if another starter is unable to go.

[CuseCubFan69]

I can see Rusch being this year's Shawn Estes and Hill being this year's Juan Cruz. Rusch will definitely get multiple chances to redeem any failures. I still wonder how Cruz' career would have turned out if he had never been converted to relief. He was really a pretty good starter. Hill could face the same fate.

 

I always wondered about Cruz and his work habits. We we're privy to that information but something just didn't add up IMO.

 

I see Rusch as having a good year, for him. 13-9 3.80 ERA kind of year. I like the OF's that the Cubs have ability wise to catch fly balls and that is what Rusch gives up quite a bit.

 

actually, rusch's career G/F ratio is a decent 1.19.

 

I thought I read before he was a flyball pitcher but you're right that is pretty close.

[CuseCubFan69]

I can see Rusch being this year's Shawn Estes and Hill being this year's Juan Cruz. Rusch will definitely get multiple chances to redeem any failures. I still wonder how Cruz' career would have turned out if he had never been converted to relief. He was really a pretty good starter. Hill could face the same fate.

 

I always wondered about Cruz and his work habits. We we're privy to that information but something just didn't add up IMO.

 

I see Rusch as having a good year, for him. 13-9 3.80 ERA kind of year. I like the OF's that the Cubs have ability wise to catch fly balls and that is what Rusch gives up quite a bit.

 

I'll take that kind of year in a heartbeat from Rusch. I doubt we'll get it, but I'd be thrilled if it happened.

 

i don't think there's really any chance of that happening. just put hill out there and use rusch in spot and long situations. that's really the only way of using him effectively. he's a bad option for the rotation and a bad option for regular bullpen duty. the only thing he's useful doing is absorbing innings-either in mop up duty or flipping a coin if another starter is unable to go.

 

I don't think Rusch is an effective swing type pitcher. I rather see him get a shot because you know Baker is going to anyway and maybe this type of confidence in him will turn him into a pretty good pitcher. I truely think if he is handed the ball every 5th day he will have a pretty decent year like I said. If he is a swing guy I see an ERA around 5.

 

I also think that Williams is going to struggle big time in the beginning. Does anyone know about his April/May splits?

[Magnetic Curses]

I can see Rusch being this year's Shawn Estes and Hill being this year's Juan Cruz. Rusch will definitely get multiple chances to redeem any failures. I still wonder how Cruz' career would have turned out if he had never been converted to relief. He was really a pretty good starter. Hill could face the same fate.

 

I always wondered about Cruz and his work habits. We we're privy to that information but something just didn't add up IMO.

 

I see Rusch as having a good year, for him. 13-9 3.80 ERA kind of year. I like the OF's that the Cubs have ability wise to catch fly balls and that is what Rusch gives up quite a bit.

 

actually, rusch's career G/F ratio is a decent 1.19.

 

I thought I read before he was a flyball pitcher but you're right that is pretty close.

 

if he had the stuff to go with this, he would be very valuable, but he just doesn't. i think putting him out there is a real crapshoot.