Nightengale: Chicago Cubs Have Asked About Mitch Keller

I'm fairly luke warm on Keller. He's done a few interesting things under the hood this year which has made his location better, but his K% has really dropped. Stuff+ isn't super-big on his pitch shapes, not is BP's models. 

It's cool he's controlled, but I'd guess his price becomes prohibitive based on his quality. Is Keller any better, than say, Jameson Taillon? Probably not significantly, as Keller's xFIP of 3.92 is in shouting distance of Taillon's 4.19. Is that worth the cost of admission? 

I think the Cubs should aim higher than Keller. 

26 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'm fairly luke warm on Keller. He's done a few interesting things under the hood this year which has made his location better, but his K% has really dropped. Stuff+ isn't super-big on his pitch shapes, not is BP's models. 

It's cool he's controlled, but I'd guess his price becomes prohibitive based on his quality. Is Keller any better, than say, Jameson Taillon? Probably not significantly, as Keller's xFIP of 3.92 is in shouting distance of Taillon's 4.19. Is that worth the cost of admission? 

Why are we comparing him to Taillon when he'd be replacing Rea in the rotation, who has a 4.35 xFIP and a 5.23 xERA?

The Taillon comparison is more about what you expect out of Keller than what production he's replacing.  The idea being is if he's next-gen Taillon and we're iffy about Taillon being a playoff starter now, then maybe you can aim higher.  I'm a fan of Keller as long as the contract dilutes the price accordingly since I suspect there's another level to unlock(and there's still value in Younger Jameson), but it's not a slam dunk either.

5 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Why are we comparing him to Taillon when he'd be replacing Rea in the rotation, who has a 4.35 xFIP and a 5.23 xERA?

The comparison is not of who he's replacing, but the level of value he's currently showing. I am not sure that the team needs another Jameson Taillon, but something better. 

The contract here becomes interesting. Does the control increase the price? Or does it decrease the price? 

If the Cubs can find something in the profile they like and can add chase, whiff and ultimately K%, then there is likely a reason to be a fan. I'm not 100% sure thats the case here, as on a quick profile glance, there isn't a very specific or obvious candidate for that. Not saying there isn't, either.

Yeah I'd like to aim higher than Keller but he does do some things well and is under control a few more years, which is nice. It depends on cost and leaving room to add other assets. 

Go big and get Skenes and Bednar, just empty the farm 

I mean what on earth would it take to get Skenes? Mo Baller, Horton, Caissie, Shaw? Is that enough? Is that worth it? And what incentive is there for the Pirates to trade him in the next 2 years?

4 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

I mean what on earth would it take to get Skenes? Mo Baller, Horton, Caissie, Shaw? Is that enough? Is that worth it? And what incentive is there for the Pirates to trade him in the next 2 years?

There's little reason for the Pirates to realistically consider trading him. I don't think there is any chance he's moved.

1 hour ago, mul21 said:

Why are we comparing him to Taillon when he'd be replacing Rea in the rotation, who has a 4.35 xFIP and a 5.23 xERA?

Wouldn't he be replacing Horton who is probably on an innings limit?

Keller would be a marginal upgrade,l for the rotation, but enough of one to give the Cubs flexibility with Brown, Horton, and Boyd as far as inning limits go. He's also good enough to crack a Cubs playoff rotation.

It can't hurt to kick the tires, but better options might be out there.

I hate that these rumors are for the cheap and cost controlled 

Im down with getting Keller, if the Cubs are still going after another SP who is better

16 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Go big and get Skenes and Bednar, just empty the farm 

Go big and get Soriano + Moncada + Jansen for a piece of the farm.

16 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

I mean what on earth would it take to get Skenes? Mo Baller, Horton, Caissie, Shaw? Is that enough? Is that worth it? And what incentive is there for the Pirates to trade him in the next 2 years?

None. The Skenes trade talk needs to be put on the shelf for a while. 

I don't really have a sense of what Keller would cost. Baseball Trade Value (grain of salt) has him with about as much value as Shaw, and as much as he's been struggling, that seems pretty steep. As mentioned a couple times above, I would like someone in this ilk (and would be fine with going worse/cheaper) immediately to give us some cushion in the rotation heading into the ASB, but I'm worried he's in the middle ground where he's better than an innings eater but not at the level to be a difference maker in the playoffs. 

Pairing him with Bednar and reworking your strategy into a Bednar/Brown/Horton-featured bullpen of death is appealing, as is the idea of getting those guys into a pennant race/full stadiums for the first time in their career, as is the idea of getting them into a organization with significantly more resources on the developmental side. But I just am not letting myself believe we're going to get this Matt Boyd for 30 starts and then into October, and Shota was real shaky to start the year. We need someone better than Keller eventually. 

Keller's not a sexy move, but he's a solid pitcher and would help bridge the post 2026 roster cliff.  I think you *have* to trade Taillon this winter if you add Keller now, but that shouldn't be that hard (presuming his dong issues are temporary like they were in '23).  I also think this team deserves some benefit of the doubt in getting the most out of "boring" pitchers like this.

Bednar is the prize though.  He is back to being a certified monster of a closer.  Adding him and pushing everyone in house and inning earlier really changes the complexion of that group.

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I think you *have* to trade Taillon this winter if you add Keller now,

Circling back to this.  You can't get too exact this far out, but right now payroll looks like it's about $170M to open next winter.  That's ~$75M under the tax line. 

Lop $10M off for the general wiggle room Jed likes and you're around $65M to spend.  Keller's about $18.5 and Bednar will probably be in the $8-10M range.  Now we're down to the $35-40M neighborhood.  Tucker if we're so lucky would likely eat damn near every dime of that himself.

It doesn't look super hard to move money this winter.  Alternatively if PTR is going to juice payroll for a year next season has looked like the logical one for a while.  But it just should be noted that adding even a medium sized salary like Keller or Alcantara to next year's teams requires some future creativity or us to change some fundamental assumptions around team spend.

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

Circling back to this.  You can't get too exact this far out, but right now payroll looks like it's about $170M to open next winter.  That's ~$75M under the tax line. 

Lop $10M off for the general wiggle room Jed likes and you're around $65M to spend.  Keller's about $18.5 and Bednar will probably be in the $8-10M range.  Now we're down to the $35-40M neighborhood.  Tucker if we're so lucky would likely eat damn near every dime of that himself.

It doesn't look super hard to move money this winter.  Alternatively if PTR is going to juice payroll for a year next season has looked like the logical one for a while.  But it just should be noted that adding even a medium sized salary like Keller or Alcantara to next year's teams requires some future creativity or us to change some fundamental assumptions around team spend.

I’ve always assumed PTR would open his wallet to supplement a winning team whereas he’s less likely to try to just go out and buy a winning team if that makes sense. I could see him upping the payroll a bit next year since most of the core group is back (hopefully this includes Kyle) and should be a major contender.