Cubs Telling Potential Trade Partners They're Undecided On Selling At Deadline

This is a logical stance for them at this point.  No reason to jump the market

They aren't ready to pull the trigger yet, that's fine, but they need to be well down the road on discussions before they make a final decision. 

52 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

They aren't ready to pull the trigger yet, that's fine, but they need to be well down the road on discussions before they make a final decision. 

Agree.  I'm sure they'll be talking to teams and scouting systems

19 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

bloated language often used to say nothing at all

Mods, can you make this Tom's sig?

kthx

Tom is right, unless you think/want the Cubs to make moves to optimize for 2026 or really 2027, 'selling' essentially means trading pending FA deals.  The Cubs don't have any of those worth trading unless you want to hold out the hope that Bellinger will bring a meaningful return(he will not).

16 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Tom is right, unless you think/want the Cubs to make moves to optimize for 2026 or really 2027, 'selling' essentially means trading pending FA deals.  The Cubs don't have any of those worth trading unless you want to hold out the hope that Bellinger will bring a meaningful return(he will not).

Feels very Chicago Bulls 2020-2024, but maybe that's just me. Not that they need to blow it up entirely, but moves can be made with an eye on 2025. Acquiring prospects from a Taillon trade that are used as assets to then trade for a young starter for 2025+.

18 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Feels very Chicago Bulls 2020-2024, but maybe that's just me. Not that they need to blow it up entirely, but moves can be made with an eye on 2025. Acquiring prospects from a Taillon trade that are used as assets to then trade for a young starter for 2025+.

If what you would get for Taillon would then get you a young starter worth trading for(or close to it), a team would just do that instead of trading for Taillon.  Also, the team does not lack for young/pre-arb or higher ceiling starters who can impact 2025, there's no less than 4 guys who fit either/both of those categories, and that doesn't include Wesneski.  That's not to say that a controlled, quality starter isn't desirable, but playing the paperclip trading game with Taillon to try to make yourself marginally better/cheaper when you don't lack for that upshot in the org already doesn't strike me as a particularly good use of the talent you've accumulated.

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

If what you would get for Taillon would then get you a young starter worth trading for(or close to it), a team would just do that instead of trading for Taillon.  Also, the team does not lack for young/pre-arb or higher ceiling starters who can impact 2025, there's no less than 4 guys who fit either/both of those categories, and that doesn't include Wesneski.  That's not to say that a controlled, quality starter isn't desirable, but playing the paperclip trading game with Taillon to try to make yourself marginally better/cheaper when you don't lack for that upshot in the org already doesn't strike me as a particularly good use of the talent you've accumulated.

Personally, I believe the team needs some attrition, but it sounds like you're on board with running it back? E.g. fixing 3b, catcher, adding to the BP, and then running it back with the same core of position players and starting pitching? 

And maybe I need to just get Soto completely out of my mind, but there's no shot Jed adds Soto to a team that includes an OF budget of Bellinger/Suzuki/Happ. To me, it seems like trading Bellinger (If we're sellers of course) gives us the best opportunity (financial freedom + frees up an OF spot) at landing Soto. The return doesn't concern me at all honestly. But if we live in a world where Soto just isn't realistic, I guess I could get on board with trying to plug the gaping holes only and see how much of a difference that makes next year.  

2 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Personally, I believe the team needs some attrition, but it sounds like you're on board with running it back? E.g. fixing 3b, catcher, adding to the BP, and then running it back with the same core of position players and starting pitching? 

And maybe I need to just get Soto completely out of my mind, but there's no shot Jed adds Soto to a team that includes an OF budget of Bellinger/Suzuki/Happ. To me, it seems like trading Bellinger (If we're sellers of course) gives us the best opportunity (financial freedom + frees up an OF spot) at landing Soto. The return doesn't concern me at all honestly. But if we live in a world where Soto just isn't realistic, I guess I could get on board with trying to plug the gaping holes only and see how much of a difference that makes next year.  

I don't have an elegant way of tying these thoughts together so I'll just bullet them

• I think removing players who are high floor or elite ceiling or both is not necessary to compete in 2025
• I think those players generally have little trade value so you get nothing but additional freed up money along with a hole that costs just as much to fill similarly on the open market
• I think the team is generally closer than their last 2 months would imply.  They're one game/month from being at .500 and 1 team/2 GB of the playoffs.  I find it very plausible they would be there with slightly less catastrophic injury luck.
• I think the 2025 Cubs get more bang for their buck by plugging gaping wounds than by hunting elite production above all else.  A league average catcher in 2025 is likely just as big upgrade on 2024 production than 2025 Soto is an upgrade on 2024 Bellinger.  Ideally you don't have to choose, but...
• I think the only player who the team may need to remove salary to fit into an offseason plan is Soto, and even that is uncertain in its necessity.  If you do need it, you wait til you sign him before making such a deal because you aren't banking on the return influencing your roster build anyway

I don’t see how waiting matters with the Cubs. They don’t really have anything to sell anyway. They should only trade guys like Bellinger, maybe Tauchman and anyone who might interest another team from their pen, or Hendricks. And none of them will bring back much anyway. More of a salary dump. So who cares if they wait until the last minute. 

8 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I don't have an elegant way of tying these thoughts together so I'll just bullet them

 

• I think removing players who are high floor or elite ceiling or both is not necessary to compete in 2025
• I think those players generally have little trade value so you get nothing but additional freed up money along with a hole that costs just as much to fill similarly on the open market
• I think the team is generally closer than their last 2 months would imply.  They're one game/month from being at .500 and 1 team/2 GB of the playoffs.  I find it very plausible they would be there with slightly less catastrophic injury luck.
• I think the 2025 Cubs get more bang for their buck by plugging gaping wounds than by hunting elite production above all else.  A league average catcher in 2025 is likely just as big upgrade on 2024 production than 2025 Soto is an upgrade on 2024 Bellinger.  Ideally you don't have to choose, but...
• I think the only player who the team may need to remove salary to fit into an offseason plan is Soto, and even that is uncertain in its necessity.  If you do need it, you wait til you sign him before making such a deal because you aren't banking on the return influencing your roster build anyway

I think I can get on board with this. I'm in the camp of wanting Soto (Duh!) but that's most likely just not a realistic option that's going to happen. I don't hate the thought of an OF of Happ/PCA/Belli with Suzuki DHing, combined with someone who can handle 3b - That would make us near an elite team defensively. Upgrade catcher and BP, I could see that being a team CC likes and is his ideal blueprint.  

All in all the team is not *that* far out of contention.  Now I certainly don't expext them to get back in it at this point, but particularly without any fun rentals to sell it makes sense to wait and make sure they don't have like an 11-5 run in them heading into the deadline.

I also think, pretty much regardless of standings, the team should be sniffing around on guys who would positively impact the 2025 team such as Vlad Jr.  Though I expect the team will not be as zealous as I would in this direction.

31 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think the 2025 Cubs get more bang for their buck by plugging gaping wounds than by hunting elite production above all else.

It's wild how completely unwilling the fanbase is to acknowledge this.  The difference between what the Cubs have gotten at C, 3B, and RP and what the 15th ranked team has gotten at each of those positions is 7 WAR!  That's the difference between where the Cubs are currently and being WC#2 and two games up on a playoff spot.  Yet instead we have people continually tying themselves in knots trying to find ways to blame vibes or the outfield.

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's wild how completely unwilling the fanbase is to acknowledge this.  The difference between what the Cubs have gotten at C, 3B, and RP and what the 15th ranked team has gotten at each of those positions is 7 WAR!  That's the difference between where the Cubs are currently and being WC#2 and two games up on a playoff spot.  Yet instead we have people continually tying themselves in knots trying to find ways to blame vibes or the outfield.

This dynamic also means that you make huge improvements on the team's level if you can marry those two and fill a hole with a very good player, it's just that the options are not numerous.  But like, if you like Danny Jansen now, go get him and start negotiations on an extension.  He's not a Boras client, he's a Chicago guy who has spent his career not being thought of as a locked on starter, and the cost to get him is not going to be damaging even in the worst case scenario.  Or if the Rays give you even the slightest inclination that they want to cash in on Paredes before he hits arb and let Caminero or Mead play 3B?  Cash in that upper minors hitter surplus that no one else is going to be able to reasonably match.

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Feels very Chicago Bulls 2020-2024, but maybe that's just me. Not that they need to blow it up entirely, but moves can be made with an eye on 2025. Acquiring prospects from a Taillon trade that are used as assets to then trade for a young starter for 2025+.

We traded for prospect Michael Busch and he contributed immediately.  May not be possible on all trades but it's possible.   We don't know the offers Jed had from 2021.

If we're selling then Taillon absolutely needs to be on the block since he's very replaceable any winter.

By Opening Day 2025 we need to acquire at least 2 SP to replace Taillon (if traded), Hendricks, and Smyly, we need a catcher and probably a 3B if Morel doesn't improve dramatically from his crappy replacement level performance, we need multiple quality BP arms including someone good enough to close.  They could use a quality bat somewhere.

It's maddening this franchise continues to throw so many millions every year at talent with pretty obvious mostly fringe tools like Smyly, Hendricks, Mancini etc.

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

It's wild how completely unwilling the fanbase is to acknowledge this.  The difference between what the Cubs have gotten at C, 3B, and RP and what the 15th ranked team has gotten at each of those positions is 7 WAR!  That's the difference between where the Cubs are currently and being WC#2 and two games up on a playoff spot.  Yet instead we have people continually tying themselves in knots trying to find ways to blame vibes or the outfield.

Absolutely.  3b, catcher, and the pen are massive problems.  Morel has negative WAR.  Catcher is around -1.5 right now.

Everyone would love to have Soto but he doesn't fix our other fundamental problems and isn't a magic bullet.  The difference between Soto and e.g. Happ is will be around 3-4 WAR.  At this pace the difference between our catchers and league average catching over a full season is 5 WAR.

The team is a failed rebuild/retool. Jed is a failed CEO who Peter Principled his way to his failure point. They should sell what can be sold and start with a new front office. But the goal seems to be the Hendry/McPhail, "competitive within the division". goal. Same story different regime.  

They were not good enough last year. They are not good enough this year. They will not be good enough next year. 

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

It's wild how completely unwilling the fanbase is to acknowledge this.  The difference between what the Cubs have gotten at C, 3B, and RP and what the 15th ranked team has gotten at each of those positions is 7 WAR!  That's the difference between where the Cubs are currently and being WC#2 and two games up on a playoff spot.  Yet instead we have people continually tying themselves in knots trying to find ways to blame vibes or the outfield.

I agree with this. It might not be the popular opinion among guys who want to burn it down and start over or trade guys like Happ/Hoerner/Suzuki/Taillon, but I am much more in the camp the team just needs a few pieces. The problem is “who” plays 3rd? Do they spend on Chapman or Bregman? Do they sign Alonso and move Busch to 3rd? Do they trade for Bohm, McMahon or someone else to play 3rd? Do  they trade for Vlad and move Busch to 3rd? I think they can upgrade at catcher without making a big splash move. Maybe sign Jansen. Maybe trade for a decent starting catcher. I think something can be done there. I also think the pen can be better next year mainly by allowing some of the young guys who are knocking at the door, pitch next year. Maybe add one veteran arm. 
The only thing I would say is if Bellinger is traded or opts out the Cubs then need another fairly substantial move to replace him. If he stays, ok, fine. But if he leaves the Cubs need to aim higher than him. Sign Soto or trade for Robert or Tucker. They definitely have the minor league assets to make any trade they want to make. If they went this route, Morel would be another asset in a trade.

Outside of not knowing what Bellinger will do, I can see Hoyer keeping the bulk of the gang together as a one last shot in his final contract season over breaking it down and basically starting over, especially if it still a no go from Rickett to going over the Threshold. 

He would need to find upgrades offensively at Catcher, 3B, and DH...

A SP, Closer, and making the bench and bullpen better.

So, yea I can see 2025 being a season where he and his guys need to show a make it happen or you'll be moving on type of year because otherwise they'll be bringing in a new guy to run the team and he'll likely be cleaning house with a few players and turning more towards the prospects to start with.

11 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

If what you would get for Taillon would then get you a young starter worth trading for(or close to it), a team would just do that instead of trading for Taillon.  Also, the team does not lack for young/pre-arb or higher ceiling starters who can impact 2025, there's no less than 4 guys who fit either/both of those categories, and that doesn't include Wesneski.  That's not to say that a controlled, quality starter isn't desirable, but playing the paperclip trading game with Taillon to try to make yourself marginally better/cheaper when you don't lack for that upshot in the org already doesn't strike me as a particularly good use of the talent you've accumulated.

I never said the young pitcher would come strictly from the prospects received for Taillon, but they could be used as assets along with surplus assets in an already deep system. For example, Taillon to the Orioles for Chayce McDermott+lottery ticket. Then Chayce McDermott+Alcantara for a guy like Braxton Garret and yes I know Braxton is currently hurt, it's just a scenario. You replace Taillon with a guy with similar to better peripherals, who costs less and has more upside.

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

The team is a failed rebuild/retool. Jed is a failed CEO who Peter Principled his way to his failure point. They should sell what can be sold and start with a new front office. But the goal seems to be the Hendry/McPhail, "competitive within the division". goal. Same story different regime.  

They were not good enough last year. They are not good enough this year. They will not be good enough next year. 

These are Amaya's projections from before the season with his actual numbers at the bottom.  He's at minimum a half win worse than the worst projection out there and a full win worse than the best.  By the end of the season, that's 1 to 2 WAR worse than projections.  I'm not sure how you can blame Jed for a guy just completely falling on his face when there were zero indications it would happen.  In addition to that, while the pen has been an absolute mess, the injuries to essentially your top 3 pen arms have to be taken into consideration.  Jed doesn't get a complete pass from me, but there's a whole lot that's happened this season that even the Carnac the Magnificent couldn't have seen coming.

28 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Outside of not knowing what Bellinger will do, I can see Hoyer keeping the bulk of the gang together as a one last shot in his final contract season over breaking it down and basically starting over, especially if it still a no go from Rickett to going over the Threshold. 

 

He would need to find upgrades offensively at Catcher, 3B, and DH...

A SP, Closer, and making the bench and bullpen better.

 

So, yea I can see 2025 being a season where he and his guys need to show a make it happen or you'll be moving on type of year because otherwise they'll be bringing in a new guy to run the team and he'll likely be cleaning house with a few players and turning more towards the prospects to start with.

If they bring it back with Bellinger they don’t need an upgrade at DH. One of the outfielders(Suzuki) would be the DH. Also,  if they run back Taillon, Steele, Imanaga, Wicks, Assad, Wesneski, Brown, and maybe even Horton I’m not sure they need another starting pitcher. As for the one, they can use a  established pen arm. Not sure he has to close. They have some arms in the system that might be able to handle that. I just don’t see them spending on a closer. I can see either Biggie, Hodges, or Brown closing next year. To me the main upgrade is catcher, 3rd base and one pen arm. To me those are must haves. The rest are more like “would like to have” moves. 
As for improving the bench, that is just not going to happen unless it happens by a fringe guy having a good year. Teams just don’t spend on the bench. Look at the Braves. Short is their back up infielder. Phillies have Clemens. Clemens has played well this year, not not someone who that was expected to do as well as he is doing. Sure, it would be awesome to have a great bench, but that is more a result of luck rather than having actual dependable good players on the bench. 
My last point is if they do lose Bellinger they need to add better than him. And, yes, at that point they need to add a DH or outrider. (SOTO please)! 

13 minutes ago, mul21 said:

These are Amaya's projections from before the season with his actual numbers at the bottom.  He's at minimum a half win worse than the worst projection out there and a full win worse than the best.  By the end of the season, that's 1 to 2 WAR worse than projections.  I'm not sure how you can blame Jed for a guy just completely falling on his face when there were zero indications it would happen.  In addition to that, while the pen has been an absolute mess, the injuries to essentially your top 3 pen arms have to be taken into consideration.  Jed doesn't get a complete pass from me, but there's a whole lot that's happened this season that even the Carnac the Magnificent couldn't have seen coming.

I know what some other people wrote above. But the Cubs are not a catcher and bullpen away from having a good team. If the goal is to be in the hunt for the playoffs, the goal is too low. They have a 200M dollar payroll and a bad team. Jed bet 100M dollars that his shortstop would win games with his glove and leadership skills. They are a team filled with complementary players which is great if you have a star or two. They do not and it's by design. 

Did someone list Hendricks?! 😜

17 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I know what some other people wrote above. But the Cubs are not a catcher and bullpen away from having a good team. If the goal is to be in the hunt for the playoffs, the goal is too low. They have a 200M dollar payroll and a bad team. Jed bet 100M dollars that his shortstop would win games with his glove and leadership skills. They are a team filled with complementary players which is great if you have a star or two. They do not and it's by design. 

This is the part I don't get about his 2024 roster. In 2023 with Nico already at SS, he brought in Dansby which made it very clear he highly valued defense. The same could be said of the Bellinger move. They were a very strong defensive team up the middle. This led to a top tier defensive team. Then in 2024, going in the exact opposite direction of what worked in 2023, they put Morel at 3B. Maybe that was entirely Counsell's call, but it seems in perfect contrast to what Jed was trying to do.