Shota Imanaga's 2026 in Review: A Successful (Final) Season in Chicago

Shota Imanaga's three years in Chicago were punctuated with some of the highest highs and lowest lows a pitcher can have. Imanaga won over fans quickly on the North Side. His infectious personality shone through in his initial interview, and his first start at Wrigley Field saw him strike out nine Rockies over six frames. There was a time in early 2024 when Imanaga looked like a legitimate Cy Young candidate, and he finished fifth in his rookie season.

The 2025 campaign had far more lows, as Imanaga struggled with injury early in the season. (possibly) tipping pitches, and became unpitchable at the end of the year as the team lost to division rivals Milwaukee in the NLDS. His 2025 was such a downer that both he and the Cubs turned down potential contract extensions, which saw the lefty play out the 2026 season on the one-year qualifying offer—Imanaga hoping to rehab his image, the Cubs hoping to avoid a disastrous long-term pact.

The 2026 season was another volatile one, though it had more positives than negatives. On the positive side of things, Imanaga got his whiffs back, as he struck out 24.6% of opposing hitters (up from 20.6% in 2025). He continued to keep his walk total low, as well, providing an impressive combination of strike-throwing and whiff-getting, finishing in the 91st percentile for chase rate, 82nd percentile for whiffs and the 95th percentile for walks. 

The reason for the revival; health and better velocity, two things that likely go hand-in-hand. Imanaga avoided the Injury List and pitched a full compliment of games and innings. It's fair to assume that the diminished fastball velocity in 2025 was due, in some part, to the hamstring strain he suffered in May, which cost him almost two full months.

In 2026, his velocity jumped (almost) a full mile per hour and was on par with what it was in 2024. The added health also aided in his mechanics, as the pitcher was able to increase his arm angle a few degrees, closer to what it was in 2024. The 2026 version was much closer to the 2024 version, and it showed.

Another positive for the lefty was something the Cubs had to have: availability. Making 32 starts on the year and pitching 174 innings, Imanaga lead the team in both categories. In a season which saw Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera, Ben Brown, and most of their other starters spend copious amounts of time on the IL, simply being healthy was a massive positive. When other's couldn't, Imanaga still took the ball.

But not everything was perfect. His warts showed at times, making him a somewhat frustrating watch. The biggest issue in Imanaga's game is how reliant he is on getting fly balls. Even with his increased velocity, his fastball sat at a pretty uninspiring 91.6 mph, meaning he has little room for error to begin with. Add in that his fastball works the best up in the zone, and any miss can turn what would have been a routine flyout into a big-fly home run. So while the diminutive pitcher has the ability to generate a lot of whiffs, he runs a pretty hefty home run rate, and 2026 saw him surrender the second-most gopher balls of any pitcher. For a team that lead the league in the statistic, Imanaga still managed to stick out like a sore thumb.

Another glaring issue is that Imanaga just doesn't have a massive arsenal of out pitches. He's either fastball-splitter (to righties) or fastball-sweeper (to lefties). While most pitchers struggle against hitters a third time through, without a deep bag of tricks to pull from, Imanaga was more susceptible than others. Seeing hitters a first time, he struck out 29.3% of hitters and had a 3.22 xFIP. When facing hitters a third time through the order, those numbers fell off a cliff, to just a 12.2 K% and a 5.53 xFIP. So, while he was available to start every time through the rotation, he could provide length within games only when the offense left plenty of margin for error. 

With all of the negatives said, Imanaga was probably better than many gave him credit for. It's true he had terrible home-run numbers and it's also true that he was limited in length, but he still put together a pretty solid year. His 3.77 ERA doesn't appear to be luck-driven; his expected ERA was 3.80 and his xFIP was 3.74. While he gave up (more than) his fair share of bombs, he largely worked around them by limiting walks and free passes. His worst moments of the season came in moments where he was his own worst enemy; walking a hitter and then giving up a follow-up home run, like what happened during his August 30 start against the Reds. But those moments didn't define his season. They just highlighted why someone of his ilk is hard to sustain; he runs on a razor's edge. When things are going right, they can go very right, but any deviation, any slight disturbance in the force, and things could go wrong quickly. 

Overall 2026 Grade: B-

Imanaga is both a benefit of the circumstances and a prisoner of them. His 2026 was better than the home runs he gave up suggested he was, because in a year when the Cubs needed someone (anyone) to stay healthy, he did. But those home runs still cost him (and the team), because in a season when the team needed someone to keep the ball in the ballpark, he could not.

From a player getting $22.025 million, you'd have liked for him to have been a bit better on the margins. With that said, while he may have been slightly overpaid on the qualifying offer, it was also a one-year deal, and it's really hard to have a "bad" one-year deal. A B- is probably a bit rich, considering he didn't accrue even 2.0 fWAR and gave up the second-most homers of anyone, but a C+ felt a bit harsh for a starting pitcher who finished 24th-best in ERA for a team who desperately needed a pitcher to stay off the IL. Because of that, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and give him a boost in his overall grade. Being available is an important skill, and he delivered it. However, it's also due to those flaws and the incredibly slim margins for success Imanaga has that he should find himself in a new organization come 2027.

What did you think of Shota Imanaga's 2026 campaign? Do you think the good outweighed the bad? Let us know in the comment section! 

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