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Bull

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Everything posted by Bull

  1. Bull
    working the count to get a good pitch>walking>swinging at the first pitch
  2. Bull
    If you want to take pressure off him, he's always said he prefers hitting 6th. Maybe sliding him to 5th if he struggles wouldn't be a bad idea. That said, I don't expect him to struggle. He won't hit like he did in 2005 but I think we can expect .380/.570/.950 from him 2005 = 1.080, carreer = .863
  3. Bull
    My thoughts exactly. If someone wants to say ERA isn't a great stat then say that. Saying ERA doesn't mean jack when it comes to ERA is just self-contradicting unless i'm missing something. You are. He meant ERA doesn't mean jack in predicting the next year's ERA. An overstatement of a decent point. BABIP, WHIP, and K/BB are better in predicting "next years" performance.
  4. Bull
    Well it'll make sense when it comes to you. You know, usually when someone discredits a statistic for some reason you're supposed to change the argument. All you did was take the same statistic and show it to me in a different form. It's like you saying that Carlos Lee hits 50 homers per 800 ABs. And then I say that there are other ways to grade a hitter's performance than home runs, then refute my argument with, Carlos Lee hits homers at a rate 25% better than league average. It's the exact same argument and my previous point remains. ERA has little to do with ERA. I wouldn't say a guy with an ERA that's probably going to be five has much if any "production." And yes, Guzman and Marshall can certainly produce the same. Wait. Did you just discredit ERA as a worthwhile stat and then use it to make your point? :shock: I think he discredited ERA as a predictive stat. ERA is a good measurement of production. ERA+ even better.
  5. Bull
    Isn't that the definition of "worth"?
  6. Bull
    675 miles in 13 hours. Northern Indiana to Virginia
  7. Bull
    link
  8. Bull
    That's the first time for me. Sorry...a little extra time on my hands.
  9. Bull
    Discussions like this in the year 2025 will read like Koufax discussions today. "Can you imagine if he had stayed healthy?!"
  10. Bull
    :shock: Poor reads, poor first step, terrible lateral acceleration, no vertical leap... I think it'd be one of the worst defensive shortstop contributions we've seen in quite a long time. :lol: Yeah, but can he pick up a grounder at his feet? [/2003_NLCS_pain...please]
  11. Bull
    While I was drunk from a combination of Zima and O'Douls, I found those WMD that Bush lost. You mean the WMDs the media says weren't there but were found in small quantities?
  12. Bull
    The amount in that article has been changed from what it stated when it was originally posted. It has? Every other article I can find on the Marquis signing has him at 3/21. Sun-Times DailyHerald DailySouthtown What am I missing? Cubs.com originally reported it 3/20. When the Suntimes article came out 3/21, cubs.com changed theirs to 3/21.
  13. Bull
    I think the sox are avoiding big ticket items in this extreme market swing, an cashing in with their overrated cheap pitchers.
  14. Bull
    Salas puttin up good winter numbers...kid has me intrigued.
  15. Bull
    His agent is involved in Riske management.
  16. Bull
    :shock: Two new mouths to feed for ya? :wink: ummm *nervous laugh* ...no
  17. Bull
    I think Hendry included a "no givesy-backsy" clause in that trade. aha nice
  18. Bull
    Any chance Patterson is PTBNL from Baltimore? j/k
  19. Bull
    I'm very against Murton having to share time with Floyd, and I'm not a big Jones fan, but how can you say that the projected 07 outfield would be worse than 06 and especially 05? 05 was probably the peak of crappiness followed closely by 06, but Murton, Jones, Soriano wouldnt be a bad outfield. That's what I was thinking when I saw that 5 year outfield. The big bats of Sosa and Alou weren't replaced immediately, and so the outfield declined all the way till 2005. 2006 was a much better outfield (because 2005's outfield was so miserable rather than the great quality of 2006), and 2007 should be again a better outfield than 2006. Makes you appreciate how great Sosa was. Put Sosa's 2003 numbers into any of those outfields and they all of the sudden become something between respectable and great.
  20. Bull
    Is the consensus that Murton getting less than 450 PAs is bad over is good? If not, what's your number?
  21. Bull
    I'd have to think that if Marquis really underachieved he could put up somewhere in the neighborhood of a 6.02 ERA...but that's just a number I pulled out of the air. No statistical analysis to back it up.
  22. Bull
    Pregnant wife and secretary are due on consecutive days. I survive pregnancy anger at home and at the office...every day!
  23. Bull
    With very little research I see Salas turned 24 in Daytona last year. What is the rest of the story on him? Does he project to be on the fast track? Any future with the big club? These numbers aren't too far off of his performance last year.
  24. Bull
    It might be better to look at rates and averages rather than BB totals as there are more PA in the early innings. Yeah, the 3rd and 6th are statistically his worst innings. 1st is pretty much middle of the road. Even rate stats don't tell the whole story when comparing innings. If he had a bad day he wouldn't be pitching in the seventh inning, so it would skew his first-third inning stats. Add to it that he'd pitch differently knowing he's only counted on for one inning, and first inning starting stats mean very little when seeing how he'd do as a reliever.
  25. Bull
    Then according to Chris Carpenter's "past performances", http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carpech01.shtml he would had continue to be a talented, but crappy pitchers. "Past performances" is not the best predictor, because doesn't take into account different variables. It's a definition. You cannot predict by things that have not happened yet. I think what you mean is that there are things beyond stats that can be used to predict, but those are most assuredly still past performance. There is quite literally nothing aside from past performance and wholely irrational beliefs that can be used to predict future performance upside? tools? makeup?
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