Bull
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Everything posted by Bull
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When I started this thread, I didn't think there would be all of this discussion over semantics. My point is that Lilly has been the best Cub starter all year, has been the starter to break all of the losing streaks, and continues to be the pitcher who gives the Cubs the best chance to win games this year. To me, that defines the "ace" of a staff. I'm not talking about next year, who has the best stuff, his flyball ratio, or whether he would be the "ace" on other teams. Oh come on now Btb....if you said the sky looked blue you'd get a nice little semantic debate about what shade of blue! Anyone who knows anything, knows the sky is: Teal 12% of the time "Sky Blue" ironically only 8% Aqua 9% Midnight Blue 7% Black 32.6% various shades of the red/orange/yellow families 4% others 25.3% of the other categories "blue" constitutes less than 1% my knowledge of the subject is so far superior to those of you who observe with a crayola 8-pack mind. I see the full 256 crayon box. you are now on ignore
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your posts are quite possibly the most entertaining aspect of this board right now.
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Luis Gonzalez .284 .368 .482 120
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you mean you want somebody to slam you so you can throw your preloaded statistics at them in an attempt to make them look or feel dumb. That said, I'd like to see your argument, as a first glance shows me a career OPS+ of 69.
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Trachsel a Cub (this should be fun)
Bull replied to JeffH's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
He's having "bad years" in bunches now, and the "good years" have turned to mediocre, so, yeah. -
So runs scored against bad pitchers are less valuable than runs scored against good ones? Runs scored against bad teams (strength of schedule) don't count for as much as those against elite teams? If you use this as a statement to that effect, you'd have to break down what runs were scored in what kids of games. Your sample size gets smaller and smaller. Now it sounds like you're valuing "close and late stats" Does this mean you believe in "clutch"?
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They also play in a hitters park in a division with horrible pitching. Not to mention actual runs scored has a ton of noise involved, you'd be better off looking at something like RC or even OPS. The Cubs have scored more runs than they probably should have on the season. Same thing with the pitching, ERA is a horrible stat to use to judge pitchers by because of how much statistical noise and variance is involved in the stat. Every stat has value (well maybe except W-L record for a pitcher). Despite the fact they "should have scored less run", it doesn't change the fact that they did score those runs. Somehow you have to account for that. If runs scored is worthless then you're saying that pythagorean record as a predictor is worthless. Do you really believe this?
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I'm here to teach. Most people don't respond well to orders. At least not people with dignity.
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Good luck with that. who would you offer?
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I definitely feel the whole system is highly flawed. DVR has ruined what little meaning ratings ever had Would DVR really affect the ratings of a sporting event -- something very few people would want to watch on a delay? I watch Cubs games on delay all the time now. Not 2 days later or anything, but it's a lot easier to go grab a bite with the wife or take the dog for a walk, and then come back and watch the game while skimming through commercials. me too. if the game starts at 7 or 8, i record it and start watching after the kids are in bed. in fact, i watch almost everything on delay for that very reason (kids) Wow, you guys are really patient. I tried to watch a DVR'd game once and just HAD to go online and see the score! I watch 1:20 games at night all the time. And I usually turn on night games and pause for an hour to watch after the kids are in bed (an extra hour with the kids + no commercials = win/win.)
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people got it. you are incorrect. he certainly is. run through the numbers if you'd like. and let me provide this link viewtopic.php?t=43717 So your argument is that Zambrano's hitting makes up for the pitching deficit, huh? Well I took you up on your invitation to run through the numbers. Zambrano has produced 11 runs (8 runs + 5 RBI - 2 HR = 11 RP). Lilly has produced 9 runs (5 runs + 4 RBI - 0 HR = 9 RP). Hill has produced 5 runs (0 runs + 5 RBI - 0 HR = 5 RP). So let's just net those runs produced with the bat off of each guy's earned runs allowed on the mound and see what we get. Lopping off 11 earned runs drops Zambrano's ERA from 4.06 to 3.51. With 9 fewer ER, Lilly's ERA falls from 3.85 to 3.16. 5 fewer ER nudges Hill's ERA from 3.68 to 3.06. Some of us here are smart and don't use RBI and R to gauge offensive production. we have rules of debate here. Please review the guidelines. you can attack arguments, but don't question another poster's intelligence. You have some insight and understanding of statistical data (though not as much as you think), but your approach makes your posts unreadable. If you would exercise some sense of human decency, I think you could be a valuable member of this community.
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It been suggested that he pitches better when he's a little tired (doesn't "overthrow") lets get him a punching bag for before starts (maybe a cut-out of Barrett)
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Runs scored/Game Cubs 4.60 NL Ave 4.64 average? yes sub-par? maybe pathetic? unjustifiable.
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Lee 2007 .892 (2nd highest in career) Career .868 high 1.080 (2005) A-ram 2007 .898 (4th highest in career) Career .832 high .951 Why does it feel like they suck this year. Are we that influenced by the almighty HR? What more can we really expect?
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Or maybe Ramirez will be taking a couple days off.
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8/22 Cubs (Hill) at Giants (Zito) 9:15 PM CT, WGN
Bull replied to soccer10k's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
So, what's the record when you ARE wearing a monkey costume? 0-1 well then, no monkey costumes, got it!? -
I agree. Take out the obvious balls, the strikes swinging (less check swings) and the foul strikes, and you're probably looking at a much higher percentage.
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I sure wouldn't. I depends on what my team needs. I'll take both. I'll bat olerud 2nd and Sammy 3rd
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Agreed. Seeing as the entire purpose of a baseball AB is to not make an out, I fail to see any argument for SLG > OBP. Not true. The entire purpose of an at bat is to make a contribution that leads to the most runs possible. This is usually best done by not making an out. In the bottom of the 10th, tie game, no outs, man on third, I want an out to deep left field. But usually I'd prefer a walk over a fly out. And I usually prefer OBP over SLG, but not for the reasons listed in this thread. If I wasn't a believer, nothing in this thread would convert me.
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1.8*OPB + SLG is a lot more accurate than OBP+SLG, so obviously an OBP driven one is better. There really isn't room for discussion. Anyone who knows anything that uses OPS as a starting point will agree with this assessment. Like I said, carry on. There's no way to argue for SLG. Whilst I agree with your conclusion, you support it not at all.
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two corneal abrasions here. one was a paper cut the other an "ulcerated cornea". Apparently I wore disposable contacts too long (about 4 months) and the bacteria ate through my cornea...fun. Maybe he slept in his contacts.
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pat and ron can't stop talking about tickling Iguchi, guchi, goo
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Koyie Hill & the black hole that he is offensively
Bull replied to rabidawg900's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
That's only true if you think Hill not catching would somehow make Zambrano not hit. As compared to the offense the Cubs have when the other four pitchers start? No. Never underestimate the value of keeping Z happy. -
Lofton to the Indians
Bull replied to E.J.'s topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Lofton to finish his career in Cleveland. Its just right. -
Would the Cards deal with us?
Bull replied to Backtobanks's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I don't think it worked out that bad for the Cubs. Durham was a starter on the 1984 division championship team, and Sutter was ably replaced with Lee Smith. It was the later trade of Lee Smith for basically nothing that was the real fleecing. Al Nipper Calvin Schiraldi weren't "basically nothing". They were a strong negative.