Hairyducked Idiot

I don't think a lot of people have noticed that this team is now on pace to win 70 games this year, and I think 75 seems within reach. So it's not like we're asking for a 20-game turnaround or anything. They're not *that* far from getting to 85 wins. NL 1b: .268 .347 .445 .793 Cubs 1b: .220 .332 .435 .767 NL No. 3 hitters: .279 .351 .447 .798 Cubs No. 3 hitters (warning, this one is sickening): .249 .284 .394 .678 I'll admit to being a bit skeptical on the big signing earlier in the year, but I was wrong. It couldn't be more obvious. This team needs a PR boost, they need a 1b for next year, they need a middle-of-the-order bat. They have a lot of money to spend. Two of the biggest names in the game, who happen to be middle-of-the-order bats who play 1b, are going to be available this offseason, and signing one would weaken (cripple?) a key divisional rival. It might be the most obvious move in the history of the franchise.

I can't believe anybody would rather have Casey Coleman pitching for us next season than Carlos Zambrano... especially when we wont be getting anything in return for Zambrano. If I had to bet on who would have a better season next year, it'd be Zambrano, but not by a landslide or anything. Zambrano's got a 4.5ish FIP, is on the wrong side of 30 and has almost 2,000 innings on his arm. The peripherals this season point to long-term problems. Okay, maybe Coleman is a bad example, but it shouldn't be that hard to find pitchers capable of doing what Zambrano's been doing. I've been saying this for a while now, but Z is one of those guys who kinda falls into a bunch of cracks in modern statistical evaluations. FIP undersells him in large part because it assumes all pitchers have equal skill when it comes to controlling the running game. Normally that's an assumption that wont make a huge difference, but Z definitely belongs at the extreme end of the spectrum, as many pickoffs as he gets and as few stolen bases as he allows. FIP also by its very definition assumes all fielders are the same... so a pitchers own defensive value isn't reflected in FIP. I'd peg Z as above average in that regard as well. So there's a couple factors artificially inflating his FIP... is it going to make a huge difference? No, probably not. But can it add up to a quarter or a third of a run? Sure it can. And then there's his bat to reconcile. His batting prowess doesn't show up in FIP or WAR or anywhere people would typically look. But I don't think anybody is going to question that he's an extremely good hitter for a pitcher... contributing probably somewhere in the realm of an extra 5 runs per year with the bat. That's roughly equal to slicing another quarter or third of a point off of his FIP. Even after all of that, is he an ace? No. He's not anymore. But he's a pretty equivalent package to a pitcher who is average at hitting, fielding, and controlling the running game while posting an ERA or FIP in the mid to high 3's. Would anybody be this eager to trash and unload a guy if Ryan Dempster had a bad attitude? This to me smacks of the sabermetric equivalent of "defense and intangibles make up the difference between what I want to believe the guy is worth and what the stats say he is worth." He's got 20 PO+A this year and two pickoffs. I don't know how many we are supposed to be giving him credit for beyond an average pitcher, but that can't be that many. Obviously his offense should be taken into account. He'd be on pace to be a 2 WAR player instead of a 1.3ish. But still, a 2 WAR player is nothing to be excited or worked up about.

Throwing at opposing batters for no reason would be a start.

Do I hear 250?

No, but Hendry typically talks himself into a corner by enraging the meatheads to the point that no solution is acceptable other than the banishment of said player. GMs will lowball him because they know he HAS to make a move. Had all parties just shut up and kept the clubhouse business in the clubhouse, no one would be wise to any of this today. If the player has value to multiple teams, the fact that we have to move him becomes somewhat irrelevant.

So you balance the loss of trade value against the possibility of saving one month's salary? Doesn't sound like that big of a loss. And are GMs really so stupid that they base the amount they are willing to give up for a player on the team's public comments? Sosa was about to enter his age 36 season, was due $17 million, and was coming off a 2.1 WAR season. How much trade value did he have, with or without the anti-PR stuff?

If true, not *that* surprised, but why would some national guy be the first to know?

He's only worth pennies at this point, so I'm really not all that upset. Well, maybe dimes.

Please stop being awful, Randy.

I can't believe anybody would rather have Casey Coleman pitching for us next season than Carlos Zambrano... especially when we wont be getting anything in return for Zambrano. If I had to bet on who would have a better season next year, it'd be Zambrano, but not by a landslide or anything. Zambrano's got a 4.5ish FIP, is on the wrong side of 30 and has almost 2,000 innings on his arm. The peripherals this season point to long-term problems. Okay, maybe Coleman is a bad example, but it shouldn't be that hard to find pitchers capable of doing what Zambrano's been doing.

I don't get the distaste for the Cubs disciplining him here. He's an employee and his actions were way out of line. And if they cut him loose, he's a pitcher who has put up 1 WAR in 150 innings this year, big whoop. The problem is going to be if/when "We got rid of that cancer!" becomes the crowning accomplishment of the next six months, as if this solves anything.

Not at this point in his career, he isn't.

I'm disappointed at how not fun this is. Usually this kind of stuff is the best part of a bad Cubs season. But we already knew Zambrano was going to be the scapegoat this year, and we already knew he was prone to temper tantrums. As bad as he's been, I'm surprised it took this long for him to throw a tantrum. The meatballs will meatball, the smart fans will resent that reality has caught up with the meatballs and Zambrano actually is pretty bad now, and we'll get to dream for a few days about what we'd do with all that freed-up salary before he comes back.

Oh man, I kinda liked him and now I have to not.

I had no idea he was third in the NL in plate appearances. That's good for his development.

its

The remote chance of any of that mattering is balanced out by the remote chance of Fielder or Pujols deciding the Cubs are close enough to be worth it.

The crazy thing was, the article I saw said he only had five strikeouts during that streak. 0-for-40 on balls in play.

Not exact, but something like .284/321/453, give or take a few points. Definitely enough to keep him on the prospect radar at his age.

Do I hear 10? 16?

How about pitchers? Randy Johnson when he was dealing was fun to watch. And of course, Kerry Wood in his pre-TJS slurve days.

My favorite stat from that streak is that from May 25 to June 25, he hit 23 HRs in 26 games (and slugged .972).

Could he do it with the magic-8 ball for an 8-run homer?

Suck it, Dusty.

I agree that this is a problem.