and this assumption of yours is a projection firmly rooted in science. And two decades' worth of experience rooting for bad-approach/discipline prospects to turn it around. Baez's 22.8% career K rate in the minor leagues puts him firmly in a category that both busts at a much higher rate than other prospects, but also tends to have lower OPS when they reach the majors even if they had high OPS in the minors (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2123847/the-significance-of-minor-league-k-rates). And given that this has happened in the lower minors, we should expect that K rate to tick up a little bit as he moves up. The only quibble here is what we define as a "realistic" possibility. If it wasn't for his amazing scouting reports, my Cubs' fan bias and faith in the developmental abilities of our front office, I'd probably be even more pessimistic about him.