Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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2013 Draft Discussion
Hairyducked Idiot replied to seattlecub's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
So is anyone surprised that not only have we not picked up an extra draft pick to this point, no one has? At least not in the time leading up to the draft. -
2013 Draft Discussion
Hairyducked Idiot replied to seattlecub's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Would love it if the Cubs used a full-slot offer to their top choice to muscle out the Astros, who seem to be very interested in underslotting again. -
2013 Draft Discussion
Hairyducked Idiot replied to seattlecub's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Thing I feel confident stating on the morning of draft day (unless I turn out to be wrong): 1) Moran was brought in to the discussion by the top teams for leverage purposes and isn't really going top 2. 2) The Cubs will take the top player on their board regardless of underslot potential or lack of it. 3) The Astros really screwed up not taking Buxton last year. -
The Pirates' collapse has maybe begun? That'd help a lot, though we probably won't win nearly enough for it to matter.
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2013 Draft Discussion
Hairyducked Idiot replied to seattlecub's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
No idea, but the logistics of trying to make the trade mid-draft seem pretty crazy. You've got 2 minutes between picks at that point, I think. -
Rizziculous. Seems to be a ton of Cubs fans there, that got a lot of cheers.
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If you had just not swung a few more times, Rondon would have given you that base for free, Angels. Thank you for the free out.
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This is some kind of prank TV show where everyone, including Sveum, pretends that Rondon isn't an awful AA pitcher who is only on the roster for stash purposes and mop-up duty, right?
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Denied.
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Poor Dale. Even when he does it right, his pen still blows it.
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Suck it, Albert.
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He's not abusing the pitchers. It just seems like the default is to send a guy back out if he's under 100 pitches, no matter what, and I don't think that's right.
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Yes to pulling Garza after six. No to the worst pitcher in the pen being first one out.
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2013 Draft Discussion
Hairyducked Idiot replied to seattlecub's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
The Astros realize they need a pre-arranged deal to make this work, right? If you make a pick without one, they have every right to hold out for full slot. -
That's what I like about Appel. He's already halfway through the injury nexus. If you only give him a few token innings in 2013, then by the time he's ready to be a full-time professional, he's a few months shy of 23.
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ZIPS thinks that a 20.6% K-rate in A+ last year would translate into a 21.5% K-rate in the majors this year. Maybe I'm overestimating how much better at K-ing hitters MLB pitchers are.
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So instead of just saying "ZIPS is more optimistic than that" right away, we had to go through the faux outrage song-and-dance? Tiresome and pointless. ZIPS and his current season MLE seem to think his power will translate fairly well from AA to the majors.
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Yeah. That's how it is for most prospects. You have a handful of guys in your organization from whom you expect big things, and then a couple dozen guys who could become something if they buck the aging curve and shoot up another level in ability. Nothing wrong with Villanueva falling into the latter cateogry.
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i'd love to hear how you came up with that Nate Silver Through my highly scientific, proprietary projection system called KJRMWAG. It works around the basic assumption that the speed with which the average prospect in his 20s improves per year will lag slightly behind the speed with which the competition improves at a one-promotion-per-year pace. So I take a guy like Vizcaino, and in AA he's basically: 20.5%, 6.5% BB, 15 HR/year, .315 BABIP., so in the majors, I expect something like: 22% K, 5% BB, 10 HR/year, .290 BABIP Then I calculate that out per 600 PAs: 132 K 30 BB 10 HR 428 BIP 124 BIPhits Then for non-HR XBH, he's got 28% of his BIPhits as XBHs at roughly 10 2bs for every 3b. So I gave him 28 2bs and 3 3bs for his 124 BIP hits. Then you add all that up into a slash line. It's a WAG, but I find it to be a fun exercise.
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My order of preference is kind of weird: Appel Bryant Moran Gray Moran above Gray because I assume if we pick Moran, then the FO sees something that the consensus doesn't, not because I think he's actually better than Gray. I really, really want to take a position player because TINSTAAP, but I just can't justify it with the position players available.
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With Villanueva, I can't look at any one thing on his resume and discount him. He isn't too old for his league. 20-21% Ks isn't unacceptable. 15 home runs a year isn't terrible power. 6-7% BBs in the minors isn't great, but it's not Baez territory. But when I take where he is and project him out to the majors in two or three years, I come up with something like 235/273/330. He just falls into that big pile of guys who is good enough to be kept around and intrigued by, but he'll need to take a step forward beyond just normal aging improvement if he wants to be a big leaguer.
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Sveum keeps insisting that Cubs pitchers aren't sticking to the scouting reports and game plans in key situations, including Pujols' home run last night. Very odd.
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Well, this night of sports was a bust.
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Fun with arbitrary endpoints: Castro with a .399 OPS in his last 15 games.
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I don't miss that.