Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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This isn't hating pitching prospects. This is hating all prospects not drafted in the first, *maybe* the second round. From 2002-2011, Theo's Red Sox, the uberdrafting machine that we all love them for, took 71 players in the third through 10th rounds. 4 of those 71 became useful major leaguers, less than one every other year. And that's using a pretty generous definition of useful. The draft provides a fun break in the middle of a boring, frustrating season, but let's be realistic about what happened today. We drafted a big pile of roster-fill so we could field teams and join leagues to give Bryant somewhere to play until he's ready to be in the majors.
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Spoiler alert:
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So maybe having Villanueva in the pen isn't that great after all.
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Valbuena got hosed on a horsecrap call.
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One is a shortstop. I'm not really sure he'll have more power than Baez, either. Actually, it would be hard to say who has the best power in the system between Bryant, Soler, Baez and Vogelbach. yeah, but Baez is projecting as a ML 3rd baseman, right? and Bryant is a generational power talent, right? if those guys have as much, we're sitting pretty. You can project all four guys at 25-30 HRs (project with ordinary development, not just ceiling) without stretching even a little. It's a pretty awesome turnaround from two years ago when we had nothing in terms of power.
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One is a shortstop. I'm not really sure he'll have more power than Baez, either. Actually, it would be hard to say who has the best power in the system between Bryant, Soler, Baez and Vogelbach. Can't be that hard, because you just nailed it in order :)
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Bryant, Soler, Almora, Baez, Alcantara, Johnson
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This is one of those days where I wish we'd bring back Sappelt or find someone else to rebalance our L/R matchups.
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Ballgame.
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We've reached the point where it's disappointing when it's Castro coming up in key situations.
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I don't understand what's so hard to understand where I'm going. Our pitching outlook organizationally is not very good. There's no agenda. There's nowhere I'm "going with it." It's just an easily observable situation. Like I said, it's not insurmountable. They'll just have to do a good job focusing their resources on acquiring pitching from outside the organization for the next few years. Also, non-first-round draft picks don't really matter and certainly don't move the needle. Maybe a couple of them per draft will magically develop into something useful, but there's no good way to predict it.
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No, you can't make just any system look bad by describing their pitching prospects accurately. Just the bad ones pitching-wise. It'd be like if our hitting prospects started with Vogelbach as the best and were down to Bruno by the 4th or 5th on the list. This is where we disagree. First, we don't have four of those starters. We have three. The fourth is a free agent at the end of the season. Second, they aren't really all that young. Third, the nature of pitching is such that having just enough isn't remotely enough. It's not just that some of them can get hurt or become ineffective in the next few years. It's that statistically, a couple of them probably will. If by 2015, only one of Garza/Jackson/Samardzija/Wood has gone the Zambrano/Wells route (two guys who were fairly young and in our rotation not that long ago), then we should consider ourselves quite lucky. Of course we're pitching-starved at the MLB level. We had to fill out our bullpen with whatever flotsam we could find and it's cost us quite a few games already.
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A soft-tossing righty and a future reliever with major control problems at A-. Well, now I'm sold. Never mind. Pitching isn't an organizational problem after all. It's not insurmountable, but it's going to take some good work. Whereas you could probably just derp your way to an average or better offense for the next decade.
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You listed our four best pitching prospects and gave us an A-ball MOR ceiling with arm injury questions, an Angel Guzman redux, and a pair of second-round teenagers that everybody has a few of. Sure, middle relievers can come from anywhere and anything. But the good ones are probably going to come from being good prospects, something we have very few of.
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That seems like it's going to be *the* question for awhile now. We've got a league-average (slightly better even) offense in the majors, plenty of interesting young-ish MLB position players and a ton of top hitting prospects. But the pitching is very thin after the immediate major leaguers.
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People with terrible entertainment tastes are the new market inefficiency.
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Strikeout, line drive right at somebody, infield pop-up. Perfect Travis Wood inning.
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Ewww. Bust.
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Guys like these guys are the guys our FO is notorious for. And yeah, they might also be saving the overslots for later. Why are you arguing with yourself?
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Fun fact: Boston's 3rd round picks under this front office combined for 0.2 bWAR.
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They're relative unknowns because there's a bajillion guys worth taking in the 2nd-5th rounds and no publication or pundit really scouts them all.
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I'm probably just missing it, but I don't see what would be the point of taking an underslot in order to overslot later. Wouldn't you take the overslot first and then underslots after? I'm guessing so you don't have to surrender the money if they don't sign? That kind of makes sense. Maybe. My head hurts (partially from draft machinations, and partially because my toddler is sitting behind me on the couch and beating the hell out of me whenever Captain Hook tries to screw over Jake)
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I'm probably just missing it, but I don't see what would be the point of taking an underslot in order to overslot later. Wouldn't you take the overslot first and then underslots after?
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Maybe our front office didn't subscribe to BA and just did some scouting and then took some players they liked. shhhhhhhhh that makes too much sense What fun is a draft if you can't game-theory the hell out of it?
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Maybe our front office didn't subscribe to BA and just did some scouting and then took some players they liked.