Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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For the record, I agree with all of this. However, none of it disqualifies him from being a better hitter vs. righties than Reed Johnson. That's a pretty low bar to hop.
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Assuming four straight declines means a guaranteed fifth decline is reverse gambler's fallacy. PECOTA does attempt to measure the chances of a guy falling off a cliff, I just oversimplified it by using averages. Edmonds does have a high risk of collapse. As far as Pie, anybody who watched Pie in the first month saw him for 60 PAs against righties. And anyone who thinks they can make projections or conclusions from 60 PAs is wronger than PECOTA could ever be. I think all the evidence, outside of a very small sample this season, says there is a clear hierarchy of ability to hit right-handed pitching amongst the three, and it is Pie, Edmonds, Johnson without any of the three being particularly close.
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Probably. Could you be more specific?
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PECOTA projection vs. righties (I don't know if this was field-adjusted or not for Edmonds playing in PETCO): Pie vs RHP .303 .363 .537 Edmonds vs RHP .247 .342 .456 Johnson vs RHP .256 .314 .369 I hate the Cubs so much for making Johnson the regular CFer. I hate them so very, very much.
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Even projecting a decline from last season, he's better against righties than Reed Johnson offensively and a glance at defensive metrics has them both slightly below average defensively in center. It's horrible and idiotic that they aren't giving Pie the everyday job, but Edmonds isn't worthless as some would like to imply based on the fact that he's old and has a bad 100 PAs.
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Lou Pinella, What the hell are you doing?
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Keener98's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
1,627-1,512. That's a .518 winning percentage. If you remove the Tampa Bay years, which were some of the worst teams ever assembled, his winning percentage goes to .538. Why would we remove those? Can we remove his best three seasons also? Either way, that's good but it isn't earth-shattering. -
Another PRIOR shoulder exam!
Hairyducked Idiot replied to StMarksCubs's topic in General Baseball Talk
actually it is probably more like 40%, unless prior is exempt from paying taxes like the rest of us. 40% of 15 million is still a lot of money for playing a game. Speaking as someone with absolutely no experience having money, I still suspect people overrate it's effects on happines. I've never perceived that being rich makes life any more fulfilling than otherwise. -
Lou Pinella, What the hell are you doing?
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Keener98's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
What's Piniella's career winning percentage? It isn't bad, but I don't think it shows he unquestionably knows what he is doing either. -
This page is really interesting; however, I don't know what a lot of the columns mean. If you can clue me in on some of these I'd greatly appreciate it. I'm making these guesses: O-swing% = Percentage of pitches outside the zone that the batter swings at. Z-swing% = (Percentage of pitches within the strike zone that the batter swings at?) Swing% = Percentage of pitches that the batter swings at? O-contact% = Percentage of pitches swung at outside the zone that the batter hits? (or puts into play?) Z=contact% = Percentage of pitches swung at within the zone that the batter hits? (or puts into play?) Contact% = Percentage of swings where the batter makes contact? (or puts into play?) Zone% = Percentage of pitches seen by the batter that are within the strike zone? Yes on all. I'm not sure whether contact is including foul balls or not.
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Funny how fans can be sabermetrically right and wrong at the same time. Pie is the best option for Cubs center field right now, there are no bones about it. But a bad 103 PAs this season does not mean Jim Edmonds is completely worthless. Even with a decline from last year's numbers, he is probably going to be better than Reed Johnson vs. righties. I don't see how you could project otherwise. This move shatters any delusions we had that Pie might be given a fair shot, but to be honest those were shattered for me already. I hope we trade him for something good.
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And playing time for the best CFer in the organization.
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People are overreacting a little. Not a lot, but just a little. I hate this move to. It's stupid that Pie has to battle Reed Johnson for playing time vs. righties, it's stupid that he might be sent down. But given that I fully agree with how stupid it is and am furious at the team for jerking around Pie, IF we aren't going to give him the time he's deserved, I'd rather have Jim Edmonds in there vs. righties than Reed Johnson. Last season, Edmonds posted .268 .336 .419 vs. righties, much better than anything Johnson can be expected to do.
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That sounds a lot more like excuse-making for lack of performance than evidence. Or it's a logical reason. It's a logical reason for a pitcher whose performance projected to positive major-league numbers before the changes. But they didn't. He's a good prospect and a major-leaguer, but a 93-MPH fastball doesn't change that the majors and minors have both treated him like a mediocre pitcher on a pretty consistent basis. wait this is sean gallagher we're talking about? mediocre in the minor leagues? i don't get it. A 2.77 career ERA is mediocre, dude. Depending on age and level, it can often point to being a mediocre major-leaguer at the present.
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Peavy, Young, Maddux is a pretty decent top 3. Chris Young is an extreme fly ball pitcher playing in Petco. He'd probably be Sean Marshall if he played at Wrigley. Almost no difference in home and road ERA career: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=youngch03
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Reds batters, percentage of pitches outside zone swung at, this season and career going back to 2005 (as far back as the site has data): Keppinger 20.84% career, 20.68% this season Phillips 31.38% career, 34.33% this season Griffey 20.9% career, 23.57% this season Encarnacion 24.18% career, 23.61% this season Dunn 17.63% career, 14.91% this season Corey Patterson 34.72% career, 32.50% this season I'm not really seeing any pattern.
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23-15. Regained our rightful position alone in first place. On pace for 98 wins.
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Cedeno could have made that play from either position.
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One more walk for double-digits please. Kthxbai
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Fly to center to end the inning. Johnson would have caught that on a run :)
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Another PRIOR shoulder exam!
Hairyducked Idiot replied to StMarksCubs's topic in General Baseball Talk
I enjoy mocking the people who mock him. Prior's career has been a tragic story, and the unwashed masses like questioning his manhood since he's young, well spoken, good looking, rich, and good at baseball. Certain guys are injury prone, and it sucks for them. He's not allowed to do what he does best because of injuries, and people think that's funny? See, it was heartbreaking to them how they thought he'd be a great pitcher and then he wasn't. It hurt them way more than it hurt Prior to see his lifelong dream crumble in front of him, slowly and painfully. -
DeRosa gets the "you made a cool play so I'll give you the out" call at first.
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:rotfl:
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http://www.fangraphs.com/lgraphs/280512116_Padres_Cubs_71864771_lbig.png Fangraph says it is completely over.
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Cedeno would have gotten his fifth time on base there.
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B. I guess it could be "C," but it depends on your definition of good.