Hairyducked Idiot
-
Posts
39,504 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
46
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
-
And as annoying as it is, it's fun to hear the Cardinals announcers talk about being in third place.
-
http://www.fangraphs.com/lgraphs/280516113_Astros_Rangers_73183605_lbig.png
-
You'd think the best lineup in baseball wouldn't be fifth in its own league in runs/game.
-
And 3-0 Rays. Good night!
-
Koske an All-Star in '08?
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Sweet Swinging Billy's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm skeptical. He's third on the team in WARP1 behind Zambrano and Soto. You can make a good case for Marmol when you factor in leverage. But after that? Lee's just fourth among NL first basemen in OPS. Theriot is seventh among NL SS's (yes, that underrates his OBP, but it also excludes his outs on the basepaths, so I'm calling that a wash :) ). Dempster, maybe? I'd say there are three Cubs who are clear All-Stars at their positions right now: Zambrano, Marmol, Soto. After that, Fukudome's in a large group of Cubs who are on the fringes. -
This is the perfect spot for Hoffpauir: backup pinch hitter you stash in the minors in case you need an MLB adequate bat for a few weeks when someone gets hurt. He probably could fill Ward's spot adequately for the full season, but I'm not too upset that he doesn't get a chance. Guys like him are a dime a dozen in the minors, virtually. He has no future as an MLB starter, and even sticking long-term on a MLB roster helps. His MLEs at Iowa last season were .285/.332/.487, and the fact that he's right-handed helps, but he also has no defensive position. He's the sort of guy that it's good to have one at Iowa, and I'm really glad we are going with a guy like him instead of resurrecting some carcass like Lenny Harris, but that's about it.
-
2008 Cubs Movie: "We Believe"
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Schwarber Fan's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Right now, BP's projection formulas have us at about 75% chance to make the playoffs. We'd be the better team in the first round of the playoffs, most likely, but after that it just depends. Our secret sauce of playoff success indicators looks pretty good: We have the best defensive efficiency of the league, good K rates on our pitchers and a shutdown, high-leverage reliever. So I'll say a 75% chance of making the playoffs, 60% chance of winning in the first round, 55% of winning the NLCS and 50/50 in the World Series. By this formula, we have a .... 12.375% chance of winning the world series. So the odds are 7:1 against this season ending happily. And roughly 1/4 of at least breaking the lesser streak of 63 years without a pennant. This team has a good chance to cruise to a division title and challenge the '84 team's 96-win mark. Let's enjoy that instead of obsessing over how the playoff coinflips might bounce. -
Not quite that bad, but yeah he had some BABIP mojo going for him today, especially on line drives.
-
Zach Duke career vs. righties: .316 .364 .464 .828 2008 Cubs vs. lefties: .301 .394 .449 .843 Spot them two runs and I'd still say this matchup favors the Cubs. Three and I'd have to take the Pirates, though.
-
That's kinda funny considering his best PECOTA comp.
-
PECOTA's most comparable players: 1 Tony Conigliaro 1992 40 11 Jack Clark 2003 33 2 Alex Rodriguez 1979 36 12 Bob Horner 1971 33 3 Del Ennis 1981 36 13 Travis Fryman 1982 33 4 Eric Chavez 1970 36 14 Dan Ford 1960 33 5 Frank Robinson 1973 35 15 Jim Rice 2007 32 6 Andre Dawson 1992 35 16 Willie Horton 1975 32 7 Ellis Valentine 1975 34 17 David Wright 1969 32 8 Johnny Bench 1975 34 18 Dave Winfield 2000 31 9 Nate Colbert 1957 34 19 Cal Ripken 1979 30 10 Harold Baines 1998 33 20 Dave Kingman 2005 30 (note, there is a known issue with the baseball prospectus site that lists the years wrong for all of these players) If I'm the Brewers, I feel pretty good about those comps.
-
Outside of the Cubs/DBacks/Marlins and the Rays, the rest of baseball, has basically been hit-or-miss. But I like the fact that the Cubs could be argued that they are the best team in baseball. That may have been more improbable then Jim Edmonds joining the Cubs. Not really improbable. Most projection systems had them right up there coming into the season.
-
He should be. At the very least, he could get spot starters against teams that have trouble with lefties. Now today's start from Gallagher was an actually good start.
-
Cubs are on pace for....100 wins.
-
Shawn Estes is the only thing that has kept the Cubs from a superb winning streak. It's like it's 2003 all over again.
-
Striking out a lot doesn't make you a freeswinger. Freeswingers come in all varieties, and many of them strike out very little.
-
This is why I'm glad Wood is the closer and not Marmol.
-
To his credit, this is his second inning of work, and he has thrown like 35 pitches. And the two-run shot was hella windblown. Then again, so was Sorian's second.
-
Fangraphs is unimpressed by the fact that it is now only a three-run lead. http://www.fangraphs.com/lgraphs/280516116_Pirates_Cubs_73063563_lbig.png Kerry Wood's save total might get padded.
-
agreed... I really took it badly when we started losing again. If we can build up a nice 15 over .500 cushion, I can calm down and not let day to day affairs affect me. If we get 15 games over .500, I might lose my mind In a few hours we'll be 2/3rds of the way there. PECOTA-projections laid over current results puts us at an average of 95 wins at this point.
-
Derrek Lee is good at baseball.
-
http://www.fangraphs.com/lgraphs/280516116_Pirates_Cubs_73047936_lbig.png http://www.mediabistro.com/fishbowlLA/original/gameover.jpg
-
ballgame.
-
Pinch hit for Gallagher, put the game away here and warm up Lieber :)
-
It's funny how different I feel about seeing Reed Johnson up vs. a lefty as compared with when he's up vs. a righty.