Geographyhater8888

That’s my understanding, although bWAR doesn’t think highly of the cubs pitching staff either being 25th in bWAR and 15th in team ERA. my issue with fWAR if they’re too conservative. Tigers will have the best record in the AL with only 93 wins?

It’s not as if the cubs have always been frugal either. They were fourth in payroll in 2018 and 2nd in 2019. Outside of Ohtani and Soto it could just as much be Jed looking some of the free agent short stops and pitchers and projecting their game to age poorly as we’ve seen with Correa, Boggarts and injuries to Seager in a free agent class where the cubs were years away from contention. Turner’s been productive but for $123 million more than Swanson and not a huge gap in production l, Swanson has lived up to his deal no matter how much criticism he receives, unlike Heyward. We saw that 2021 sell off and they dodged a huge bullet there. Glass half full way of looking at this is Tuckers game projects a lot better into his 30’s where his speed and athleticism isn’t tied into his production like middle infielders and of course free agent pitchers who routinely deal with injuries. I just don’t see him trading for a guy on impulse for 1 year unless there was a playoff mandate by ownership. Slugging outfielders tend to have a longer duration of success into their 30’s and that could be what Jed is seeing

It’s projected rest of the season, another table projects the full season. Very conservative estimates.

bWAR strongly prioritizes run differential/SOS and pythag win loss record.

That’s my assumption that they’re projecting the next 79 games. I wish I could find their current totals. Just curious what it’s based off of. Mariners Twins and Blue Jays are these sleeping giants?

I googled it 2 hours ago. Is there page that’s up to date that I missed? Seems odd they’re tied with a team with a 112 run differential disparity. i assume they’re projecting the remaining 79 games?

Can anyone explain to me the disparity in team fWAR and team bWAR? Why are the cubs ranked number 2 in bWAR while tied for 10th in fWAR with Toronto and behind Seattle and Minnesota?

They let go of them for obvious reasons as we’ve seen. They offered Bryant a $200 million extension in 2018. Heyward, Lester and Darvish were all big contracts and adjusted for inflation Heyward would be worth north of $200 million if he signed his contract over the winter. They’ve went over the LT in the past and I don’t think Jed pulls the trigger on a trade like that while dumping salary just to let him walk unless there was a playoff mandate set by ownership where he felt pressed to make a move with his job on the line. I expect a truly competitive offer and any hesitation will be thanks to his age loading up the front end of his deal with the expectation you’ll be paying a premium price for a less productive 35 YO Tucker on the back end of the deal, a potential lockout and the Yankees offering him the Statue of Liberty.

Efficient use of base runners.

Now that PCA has gone a week without homering for the first time in months, good time for Nico to step up.

Astros need to stop hitting home runs and copying our run scoring strategy. Go hit your singles and doubles and take your walks and leave the home runs to us. It’s not fair that they’re allowed to do both.

Am I watching a curb your enthusiasm episode?

Cubs need to get back to basics and hit 5 home runs tonight,

If you would’ve told me that the cubs would’ve had bases loaded, I’d take the guaranteed run over an unknown outcome. Anyone who’s been watching them lately would.

Good. Then Tucker will be a Cub in 2026 and beyond now that we know there’s a coherent vision in place and you’ll have more future stability in the outfield to justify trading a Cassie or Alcantara and put your chips into 2025 while still having a foundation in place for the next 5 years or so during what we assume is Tuckers peak. With the future locked in and Happ Suzuki and Taillon on medium length deals who’ll be off the books in the next few years, financial flexibility shouldn’t be a problem.

Torres was expendable because Russel and Javy were the future of the MI. Just playing devils advocate here but this is what happens when you sit on $40 million that you slashed off your payroll and didn’t put back into the team, hedging your bets on Boyd topping 160+ innings he hasn’t hit in years and Brown holding down the fort until Assad comes backs who were still waiting on and doesn’t really move the needle a whole lot unless you’re comparing him to Rae Brown and a rookie Horton. like you I think there’s a possibility Tucker returns, which I wonder how it effects the way they operate during the deadline if at all.

Cassie and Alcantara are supposed to be contingency plans for the outfield when Happ and Suzuki are off the books, in theory. I don’t know where Rojas or Bellestaros fit, perhaps DH? Not saying they aren’t expendable, but if they restocked the farm to use as trade chips then it doesn’t line up with a fringe top 10 payroll. We’re also waiting on Shaw and Horton to make significant contributions and would net you the best arm available. I wish I knew exactly what goes on behind closed doors.

Who’s available or who do think will be available and what is the price you’d be willing to pay?

Who’s available that’ll truly make a big impact in the rotation that won’t cost you the farm? The problem is hedging your bets on 2025 with the uncertainty over whether or not Tucker will still be a Cub next year. If Tom insists on skating around a top 10 payroll then you’ll have to be careful with what you give up because if the cubs don’t make a deep playoff runs you’ve punted on some of the future. in this scenario you’re better off letting the year play out and trade for a MOR arm that won’t cost much and hope when the farm is ready and on cheap deals they’ll splurge a bit in free agency like that 2015-19 window. I don’t know about Degroms availability and if he’d cost the farm and or Texas would settle for the cubs taking on his salary and hedging your bets on him staying healthy for the remainder of the year, which isn’t characteristic of the Cubs. Not since trading for Cole Hammels. The cubs are 14 games above 500 and have been hovering around that mark for the last 26 games, so the trend here is the issue and the rotations flaws mixed in with some issues with manufacturing runs has been a negative trend. doesnt mean the cubs are doomed but the goal posts have moved from no 3 game losing streaks to top 5 in OPS vs left handed pitcher to wherever they’ve fallen to now, record vs over 500 teams keeps dropping, good spot, we’ll see if how they fare as the season progresses. The goal is winning a World Series, not being good.

I don’t know what the rangers plans are but Degrom is intriguing depending on the price. If you eat his salary you might be able to keep your top farm talent and roll the dice that he stays healthy for the remainder of the season, since he’s the only true number 1 on the market in a hypothetical world where the rangers are sellers. Of course the cubs picking up the cost is anotywr road block

And with the uncertainty over a Tucker extension and the Ricketts insistence on a fringe top 10 payroll then the risk isn’t worth the worth the reward if it’s World Series or bust. Too much to give up. If Tom insists on operating the cubs like a mid market team you’re better off waiting for the farm to be on the ML roster on cheap deals and hoping they’re supplemented with a John Lester/Zobrist/Heyward/Lackey like 2015/16. You use your farm to acquire ML talent when you have an owner who’ll replace the lost talent with high priced veteran talent. Cubs have shown no indication they’ll operate that way.

They’ll need it. The rotation without Steele is bad and won’t shut down the teams you’ll be playing in October. The pitching staff is 28th in bWAR whether and not much better according to fWAR. time for the top of the order to pull their weight tonight because Sunday is a horrible matchup. No more missed opportunities with bases loaded and runners on third with no outs if they want to stay on top because they’ll be at a disadvantage 3/5 games until Taillon finds his touch again.

Can he play first? A streaky Suarez>Justin Turners consistent below average offensive production. That’d solve the lefty issues to an extent

That’s because the Brewers took care of these first place teams early on sweeping the Phiies and taking 2/3 from Detroit and Houston. What we’re seeing is either a good cubs team that struggles vs other top teams and or a team that’s been remarkable at playing appropriately to their level of competition. When the offense has come back to earth and the easy portion of the may/June schedule is over, we’re seeing a pitching staff with too many cracks and expected regression from Rae and Horton with too much mileage and the hard contact allowed finally missing fielders.