Take it however you want, but this model really likes the Cubs World Series odds.
Their positional war and offensive+defensive metrics with a lowish strikeout rate correlates with postseason success independently of pitching, especially since 2016. Mediocre offenses and defenses don’t win the World Series but the opposite is true with even below average pitching staffs.
They’re third run differential,
third in team fWAR,
third in third order win percentage,
53-36 since June 11th in a +148 run differential, thanks to PCA’s superstar ascension and Bregman remembering that he’s Alex Bregman, even with Nico, Busch and Happ having down years.
There’s no real regression candidates either going off the body of work from our 1-9.
Bregman’s health is obviously the key here. If he doesn’t play or isn’t effective then their odds will plummet.