Brian Kelder

There is a narrow path to the Cubs building the elusive, Craig Counsell-endorsed 90-win team. There are certain numbers and benchmarks to be watched for as the season goes forward if the Cubs wish to reach that threshold. Image courtesy of AP Photo/Nick Wass 30 and 6: This is the number of starts Justin Steele needs to make for the season and in September, respectively. Steele has been a very good pitcher when he takes the mound. Unfortunately, he has not been healthy enough to make more than 30 starts in a season. Compounding this, his Septembers have contributed to the Cubs' lack of playoff berths. In 2022 and 2024, he was injured for all or most of the final month. In 2023, with the Cubs falling one game short of the playoffs, he struggled to the tune of a 4.91 September ERA. Justin Steele needs to be able to maintain his stellar summer production for an entire season for the Cubs to make the leap to 90 wins. 40: Pete Crow-Armstrong's stolen bases need to be plentiful. Getting to this number means that he's certainly been on base over 30% of the time. If he does this, we have a possible All-Star center fielder on our hands. 30 is also the number of home runs someone needs to hit. Kyle Tucker should be a lock for this; Seiya Suzuki or Michael Busch would be the most likely candidates thereafter. Eight of the top ten home run hitting teams made the playoffs in 2024. The Cubs, even when acknowledging the addition of Tucker, really need someone to level up this season in the power department. Keep an eye on the middle of the order to see if a leap can be made. .776: Dansby Swanson needs to reach this OPS in 2025. With the Cubs behaving like a mid-market team all winter, they absolutely need their biggest investment to not hover around a 100 wRC+. Swanson, as highlighted on Locked On Cubs, simply cannot be a negative offensive asset at the amount of salary he's commanding. Swanson probably won't have post anything above a .330 OBP (his career high was .345 back in 2020), so to do this, his slugging percentage has to rise. His 2024 mark of .390 simply isn't acceptable, no matter how steady he is on defense. If he can replicate his 2022 campaign (32 doubles, 25 home runs), the Cubs' offense may be deep enough to compete with anyone. 25: Someone on the roster needs to take control of the ninth inning and total 25 or more saves. Maybe Ryan Pressly can stave off Father Time for one more season. Perhaps Porter Hodge can continue his momentum from the past two seasons. It doesn't matter who does it. The Cubs need stability like this at the back-end of the bullpen. 0: This would be the number of bench players with a WAR below zero. No more Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, or Nick Madrigal in sight. Justin Turner, Jon Berti, and eventually Kevin Alcantara will be needed at some point. With better injury luck this season, as well as able-bodied replacements to sub in, the Cubs could be talking an extra two or three wins thanks to their improved depth alone. These five things address all of the shortcomings from last season's 83 win team. A reliable bullpen would flip some of the blown saves to wins. Dansby Swanson being a reliable bat should help add another win or so. The rotation depth is helped here, and bench bats can be utilized more effectively. This is the blueprint. This is the way. View full article

This will shock nobody who has followed the Cubs at all since 2020. Left Field is not a position battle. We all know Ian Happ will patrol the position for over 150 games per year as he has done the past three seasons. There it is, no need to read the rest! Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-Imagn Images Left field is in capable hands with Ian Happ. He's averaged 3.7 WAR in his past three seasons and won a Gold Glove award in each of them. His power numbers are consistent; his OPS has also been between .780 and .790 yearly. He regularly scores and drives in over 80 runs per season. There's not much to discuss here. Statcast shows an elite plate approach with Happ in the 94th percentile for walk rate. Hard-hit metrics are all solidly above league average, buoyed by a low chase rate. Ian Happ has a solid grasp of who he is as a hitter and does not deviate from this approach. Strikeouts will always be part of his profile, as it is for many players with a low chase rate. While not the aircraft carrier type, Happ can be a valuable player in the proper context. On the rare days when Ian Happ needs an off day, Kyle Tucker or Seiya Suzuki will slide over to fill the position. Vidal Brujan is around for now anyway and could also log some innings in left. This is a drama-free, projectable position. So why does a sizeable contingent of Cub fans want Happ replaced? He's a perfectly fine player and is entering his ninth season on the squad. Noted lifelong Cub legends Mark Grace and Sammy Sosa played thirteen seasons in Chicago. Happ will reach ten next season and will likely pursue an extension to finish his career in Wrigley. Here are a couple of thoughts on why fans haven't embraced Ian Happ as much as other legends of yore. Reason 1: He's the last remaining guy from the Good Seasons. There's an undercurrent of "Why is Ian Happ still here when _____ is gone?" Anthony Rizzo was dealt. Javier Baez was as well. Kyle Schwarber was let go. So, the last man remaining from the last playoff victory is Ian Happ. He's never been at the level of the guys now gone. Reason 2: The streakiness. He does tend to have streaks, like most players. His cold streaks seem to be especially badly timed, with the Cubs team struggling simultaneously. Last season, he had a 110 at-bat stretch where he batted .170 in April and May, right when the Cubs were also dealing with injuries to Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, and Cody Bellinger. In 2023, the Cubs and Happ had a June swoon, following the same pattern. It certainly didn't help the Cubs that Happ was struggling with the rest of the team and could give the appearance that his struggles led to the team's. The streaky nature of Happ was more pronounced earlier in his career, and he does still have explosive hot streaks like his five home runs in 8 games this past summer. Just look at his Baseball Reference monthly stats from last year. Months Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ April/March 27 27 120 102 16 22 5 1 1 12 0 0 17 29 .216 .333 .314 .647 32 3 1 0 0 0 0 .292 69 88 May 26 25 104 91 13 21 6 0 5 12 2 1 11 31 .231 .317 .462 .779 42 1 1 0 1 0 1 .286 98 122 June 26 26 106 86 14 21 7 0 5 20 5 1 17 29 .244 .387 .500 .887 43 2 3 0 0 1 0 .308 127 147 July 25 25 103 91 16 23 6 0 6 18 0 0 11 24 .253 .330 .517 .847 47 0 0 0 1 0 0 .274 114 128 August 25 25 113 99 18 26 9 0 6 14 4 0 14 34 .263 .354 .535 .889 53 0 0 0 0 0 1 .339 125 142 Sept/Oct 24 24 111 100 12 25 1 1 2 10 2 0 10 21 .250 .324 .340 .664 34 1 1 0 0 0 0 .299 72 93 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 3/5/2025. This is actually very consistent month to month. No, he doesn't go one for four every single game. But in the aggregate, Ian Happ has become almost metronome like in his statistical production. Reason 3: Preconceived Notions When a player is on a team that has not won a playoff game for the entire time he's been a regular player, fans assume that he's part of the problem, not the solution. This is partially true. He is not the type of player that elevates the overall level of a team. He's not being paid as such. The Cubs just have not had a lineup with higher end batters, which Happ is not. He's simply good. If this year's lineup can go from average to good, his value can be recalibrated among fans leading to more appreciation. While I won't go so far as to say the Cubs are lucky to have Ian Happ in left field, it certainly could be much worse, and he does provide legitimate value. He's a solid all around player. Left field is in capable hands with Happ for the next two seasons. View full article

The Cubs are filled with sunshine and good vibes as spring training chugs along. With the starting lineup pretty well set, the bench has come into focus as the games begin. It's actually a pretty exciting group. So here it is: introducing the Cubs Bench Power Rankings. Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images Before we dig in, this bench needs a nickname. The Bench Mob? The Squad? The Bearded Men? The Splendid Splinters? Might need to be a poll! This is intended to be power rankings. Since we have no games (that count) to go by, though, the aura of the player will be the sole determinant. Spring training results just mislead anyway. Justin Turner The 40-year-old bearded redhead has had a long, successful career and is a World Series champion. While he's probably only an emergency option anywhere on the field but first base, the steady presence he'll provide will come in handy. I'm sure he'll have an impact on several games this season. Kevin Alcántara The Jaguar has successfully given himself a really cool nickname. He's also a blast to watch. Alcántara won't start the season as a backup in the majors; he'll receive at-bats in Iowa until his services are needed. He's the first man up in case of an extended absence, though. Jon Berti Fans are going to love his speed and hustle-based game. Berti might actually be in line to start in Japan, due to Matt Shaw's Dreaded Oblique (they played one of the small stages at Lolla back in 2013, I think). Along with his speed, Berti's versatility will make him an important piece for the 2025 Cubs. Vidal Bruján He's a pretty flashy player on defense, and could be another chess piece for Craig Counsell to play with. He's on here because I watched him play in Durham as a Rays prospect and found him to be a likable player. He could, of course, fall off the rankings entirely if he becomes a non-Cub, which is somewhat unlikely right now as he's listed as the primary backup at all the outfield positions. Gage Workman His middle name is literally Tater. Unfortunately, since he's never played above Double A, he may be a defense-only piece with versatility. Not sure the roster has enough space for all the versatile guys here. For now, Bruján has the edge, due to his ability to cover the outfield. Tater has played a bit in the grass this spring, but he doesn't have much experience anywhere but the left side of the infield. Owen Caissie Sidelined by an injury, and a previous core injury has been revealed, so we probably won't see Caissie in Chicago until later this season—if at all. Obviously, these rankings exclude backup catcher Carson Kelly, and they might be expanded to include Travis Jankowski, Greg Allen, Nicky Lopez, and/or James Triantos in future iterations. For now, though, this is the definitive list. If you have a good suggestion for a nickname for this group, as it comes together, feel free to throw it out. Best submission gets the smallest amount of internet-famous in recorded history. View full article

With all of the Alex Bregman rumors, the debate on Nico Hoerner's worth, and all of the other drama in this never-ending offseason, Jon Berti may have gone unnoticed. Nevertheless, the utility-infielder will be key to whatever it is the Cubs will do this season. Image courtesy of Eric Espada/Getty Images Jon Berti signed a one-year, $2 million deal to don the pinstripes, or the guitar-themed powder blue uniforms if that's your style. Injuries marred his 2024 season. Leg ailments shelved him from June into September, and after making his way on the Yankees' postseason roster, he suffered a hip flexor. That ultimately ended his season with only 66 at-bats in 25 games. So why did the Cubs target Berti? Defensive versatility is reason number one. In his 2023 season with the Miami Marlins, the versatile defender logged innings at second base, third base, shortstop, and left field. Quality depth was an issue last season. If Berti is healthy, he can serve as insurance for projected third baseman Matt Shaw, and play at least passable defense around the infield when the starters need a breather. Statcast gave him an 88th percentile ranking for range during that 2023 campaign. If Berti can remain healthy, he's the Swiss Army knife that Miles Mastrobuoni was purported to be. On the offensive side of the ball, we can see that Berti flies. In 2022, he led all of baseball with 41 stolen bases, and in 2023 he swiped 16 bags. Even in last year's injury-plagued season, his sprint speed was faster than 91% of the league. An added value to his roster position is pinch-running. At the plate, do not expect much in the form of slugging; Patrick Wisdom, he is not. His xSlug and exit velocity confirm the type of batter he is: a singles hitter with speed. Wherever his slash line ends up, the slugging percentage will probably begin with the number 3. The plate approach is solid, but does not result in walks. He's more of a player who has good swing decisions. The whiff and chase percentages are consistently in the top 20% of the league. Contact and speed, somewhat akin to Nico Hoerner , are Berti's game. Advanced metrics will not treat Berti well. According to Fangraphs, Berti's wRC+ only reached 101 in that 2023 season. Projections on the same site are in the 80s for 2025. But these analytics don't measure the value of a bench player like Berti. These metrics don't adequately value depth pieces. Situational backups can be incredibly valuable to a team. While he won't get the headlines of Kyle Tucker, for example, there are a plethora of advantages Berti can give the Cubs. The first major advantage of Berti is the aforementioned multi-positional dimension. A second benefit is injury insurance. Berti, while not at an elite level, has shown the ability to contribute with the bat (minus power), on the bases, and with range in the field. Perhaps if he were in the fold last season, Dansby Swanson wouldn't have played two weeks on an injured knee. Similarly, Berti could have given Nico Hoerner a chance to go the IL route after being plunked on the hand. Perhaps he could be the first base backup instead of Alexander Canario. Even prospects like Kevin Alcantara could marinate further in Iowa if an outfielder is needed. Berti checks a lot of boxes. Don't stress the advanced metrics. A player with an 88 WRC+ who can play five positions is very valuable to a roster. Jon Berti will be rostered for his flexibility, not as a potential All-Star contributor. Any offensive contribution is a bonus, not an expected result. Hopefully, unlike Patrick Wisdom, he can thrive in a more sporadic role. The Cubs have failed along the margins the past two seasons, and a lack of depth is partially the culprit. A player like Berti can help the team steal a game or two during the season; he is an underrated X-factor for the 2025 season. Health is his only obstacle. Kudos to Jed Hoyer for this fun little bit of roster construction. View full article

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The rumors are flying. There's no question that the front office means business. Clearly, there is at least some interest here. But the Cubs should not pursue the top remaining free agent unless they are willing to pay the luxury tax. Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images Alex Bregman has had a long and productive career with the Houston Astros. He peaked in 2019, with 8.7 wins above replacement and a 167 wRC+. Without factoring in the sign-stealing scandal in which he admits to having played a part, there has been a decline offensively in the past three years. His wRC+ has gone from 137 to 126 to 118 since 2022. His 2024 walk rate plunge was particularly concerning. It could be a one-year outlier, but it did crater as he geared up for free agency. The main issue with adding Bregman would be the cost. Rumors are that he has a six-year offer that would total over $160 million. The Cubs, given their aversion to spending over the luxury tax, really cannot afford another infielder on a high-dollar deal that might not age well. So, if they were to sign Bregman to a (shorter, perhaps richer on a per-year basis) deal, what would happen next? The Internet's Favorite Option: Sign Bregman, trade Nico Hoerner to balance out the payroll, Matt Shaw starts at second WAR-wise, this is net neutral. The decrease in defensive value theoretically would be balanced out by the added power Bregman would provide. Matt Shaw, in this hypothetical, would man second base, which many scouts believe is his best long-term position anyway. Hoerner would net some trade return, to balance out the lost long-term value of surrendering draft picks to sign Bregman. The Case For: The Cubs' lineup is really not a deep one, especially in terms of power. Bregman would address this and slot somewhere in the top four spots in the lineup. Nico would command some type of value, perhaps an arm or two to lengthen the pitching staff. Matt Shaw is ready, and slots more ably into the spot Hoerner would vacate than into the one for which he's currently projected. This is a somewhat compelling argument. When you look at the OPS for Nico vs. Bregman (.722 to .856), the increase in pop would be massive. Matt Shaw is smothered in hype, and recently was given a top-20 global prospect ranking by MLB.com. He does deserve a chance to get at-bats at the major-league level. The Case Against: This risks overpaying for Bregman's decline years, complete with worsening defense, and could leave the team overly reliant on Shaw. Bregman already is showing signs of decline. Paying a premium price for his early and mid-30s doesn't seem to be how the Cubs should operate, given their budget. Shaw also is no sure thing; his floor is sub-replacement level. With Pete Crow-Armstrong's bat still in question, Michael Busch's scary projections for 2025, the catcher position, and the ever-present question of whether Dansby Swanson can recapture his 117 wRC+ from before he arrived on the North Side, the Cubs can ill afford another iffy proposition in the lineup. An Unintended Consequence: Even if we charitably assume Bregman signs for $25 million per year, that locks up $52 million in payroll on two infielders who are over 30. Their age suggests that simply living up to that spending is the best we can expect from Bregman and Swanson. Over 20% of the team's self-imposed salary cap would be taken by two players. Kyle Tucker needs to be the only priority here. The Cubs have their linchpin, their star, the elite bat fans have been clamoring for since 2021. Any move that lowers the probability of his return needs to simply not happen. Tom Ricketts, he of the instantly infamous "break even" line, said in a recent interview that dollars aren't as big an issue to him as years. Assuming Tucker nets $40 million per season, there's no way the front office will be allowed to tie up $90 million dollars on three players. So Bregman on a long-term deal would be like Hubba Bubba: satisfying for a bit, but with a flavor that will fade as Tucker moves to greener pastures. The flexibility is necessary for the Cubs, if they want any chance of retaining Tucker in the deep green environs of Wrigley Field for the next decade and change. Option 2: The Ricketts Operate Their Team the Way They Actually Should This one is simple: sign Bregman, and do not trade salary to offset his addition. You then have the best infield defense in the game. Shaw plays the Javier Báez role from 2016, filling in when a day off is needed. All players get needed rest days, and Shaw gets needed developmental reps. Tucker's potential extension is not affected by these payroll constraints, and the Cubs commit to spending into the luxury tax. (Fans can dream, right?) If Bregman does sign in Chicago, we can anticipate multiple opt-outs being involved. Those save the team extra years and/or dollars committed, but the added cost is increased risk associated with Bregman having any kind of decline, and eschewing his opt-outs while taking up payroll and roster space and returning too little value. We just saw a tepid result on this kind of deal, with Cody Bellinger in 2024. In the end, the Cubs are not likely to land Alex Bregman. In that case, this pursuit will be but a footnote in the next book Joe Posnanski writes. This isn't a bad thing, long-term, for the Cubs. They should save their cash and go all-in on a Tucker extension. (Of course, there's no guarantee that Tucker is even open to such a deal, let alone willing to consider one at a price point that matches the Cubs' comfort zone. But that should be the goal.) Bregman isn't worth the risk and the amount of payroll space he will take up. Just let Shaw and Hoerner play, save some space for Tucker, and go over the tax for one season in 2026. With the amounts of salary falling off the books after that season, a tax reset would be simple. Bregman is a fine player, but not at the price he wants or the cost of another solid player, like Hoerner. The Cubs have more pressing needs than the marginal upgrade Bregman would bring. Let's not bang the trash can for him any longer. View full article

The main trade return in the Anthony Rizzo deal has seen his star dim among the consensus prospect world. The 6-foot-6 outfielder has a lot of hopes attached to him. His tools do pop, and his self-given nickname of "The Jaguar" has some aura to it. So what's behind this slight dip? Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK Keith Law of The Athletic (paywalled) is the high man on Kevin Alcántara, ranking him as his 33rd prospect overall. Baseball America (S) listed him 71st and MLB.com placed him 90th, but Baseball Prospectus (S) omitted him from the list altogether. FanGraphs does place a 50 future value on him, projecting him as an average regular. Clearly, some of his shine has worn off. These are not catastrophic drops in value, just some dips and possibly-minor blips. Let's take a look at what's causing these adjustments by rankers, and what Alcántara can do to regain his prospect mojo. It's a critical year for the Cubs and him, given that it's his last option year for the minors. In other words, time for the slender would-be slugger to give an answer on how much of the future he can be, before he ends up in the same boat Nelson Velázquez was in a couple of years ago, and that Alexander Canario will be in for 2025. Alcántara has been playing center field for the bulk of his pro career, to this point. His physical profile projects to get heavier eventually, meaning he may have to shift to a corner spot. If he stays in Chicago, center field is occupied (you know, maybe), necessitating a move to a spot where the offensive standard is higher. He is projected to be a plus defender (60 grade on FanGraphs) wherever he lands. The bat is the real question. Kevin Alcantara has speed (60 grade) and power (projected 60 grade). His hit tool lags behind, though, netting a 30 on the FanGraphs scale at present. It's rather obvious what he needs to do in order to reach his power and allow his speed to play on the bases. The strikeout rate is a glaring issue. Striking out at nearly a 30% rate in the minors does not bode well for a smooth transition to the major leagues. Cubs fans will remember similarly sized Jason Heyward's years-long battle with his long levers, although Heyward's feel for contact was much better. He struggled with... Well, screw it. FanGraphs said it better than me. The last sentence is fascinating, and Alcántara has shown signs of varying performance even within seasons. Highs and lows are the hallmark of the Alcántara experience. Look at these monthly slash lines from his 2024 in Double A: April: .232/.274..435 May: .295/.343/.389 June: .179/.289/.205 July: .365/.417/.581 See what I mean? When Alcántara clicks, he absolutely rakes. Look at that July, in an environment that suppressed offense league-wide. But when his approach wavers, the stats (yes, I know it's a slash line, but that's all we plebeians get for the minors) also wobble. Those are the perils of a tall, lanky frame, and has always been the risk here. It's playing out in the minors, and his evaluation and upside have to be analyzed in light of these statistics. Prospect fatigue can affect a player like Alcántara in scouts' eyes. At the tender age of 22, he's been on the 40-man roster for two seasons, taking up valuable spots from middle-aged relief options. He's been on a slow burn, spending extended time in the minors with less statistical production than some of his peers. At the Triple-A level, production matters, and his has not been there at the level of other players who are ranked higher. Tools are good. At this point, though, the production has to match the projection. Enough with the platitudes, right? Let's get nerdy. These are all concerning metrics from 2024: 28.7% strikeout rate 32% chase rate .320 OBP (not terrible, but this was against worse pitching than the majors) 51.7% ground-ball rate If he can get those naturally long levers to work together, the Cubs could have a superstar. That's not even hyperbole! That 60-grade power is legitimate (I've watched his batting practice, it was epic), and he maxed out with a 112-MPH exit velocity with an average velocity of 91. Those are more than solid numbers. When he does make contact, the contact is loud. Raw power like this is highly sought after and worth cultivating. So why doesn't he have larger power numbers? An elevated ground ball rate is the culprit. Those nagging ground balls have a way of not clearing fences. But changing the swing to get more lift may give rise to more contact issues than he already has, and as already noted, it wouldn't behoove him if that rate increased. The good news is, given the way FanGraphs described his swing and its components, you could picture a reorganized approach that leads to more loft without more whiffs. It's a riddle wrapped in a conundrum, and a puzzle the Cubs will have to put together. Alcántara is an easy guy to root for. He's flashy, fast, and has light-tower power potential. Coaches and teammates rave over his makeup, enthusiasm for baseball, and willingness and work ethic to make changes. The payoff could be enormous if the Cubs, (or a possible trade partner) can be patient with him. It could be a bumpy ride whenever he gets the call, though, and a contending team will have to balance development against current effectiveness with this player. The Jaguar has heard his name growled in trade rumors for years now, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him be dealt. He's already in rumors for Michael King. The Cubs have a great asset on their hands, and how they utilize it will resonate for years to come. If the youngster can somehow solve the long levers and inconsistency to make more contact, the Cubs' corner outfield will be in good hands for years to come. View full article

Tom Ricketts has spoken. The Cubs are going for the division title, and it's a glorious thing. Of course, there's the payroll limitations (which are Ricketts's choice) and Jed Hoyer's now-infamous "overperforming projections" statement. So who on the Cubs can pull this fabled overperformance off? Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images First of all, Hoyer wasn't wrong when he said that. It just wasn't well said. It was poorly said, actually. If he had used the word "breakout," then everything's fine and dandy. All contending teams have guys who break out and perform at a higher level than expected. So let's identify the breakout candidates, as it were, instead of getting lost in the projection sauce. Candidate 1: Michael Busch Busch projects for a .236/.322/.416 slash with 22 home runs. He was higher last season, particularly with a .440 slugging average. Now, projections are always going to be lower on an inexperienced player like Busch, but is it simply hopium to think he'll improve at age 27? Busch has a great plate approach and controls the strike zone well. His 11% walk rate for 2024 was in the 85th percentile in the majors. Clearly, he will take a pitch, always a good thing to do when trying to break out. His swing decisions, though, led to a 28% strikeout rate. He's not chasing; he's only in the 28th percentile for his whiff percentage. Busch needs to make more contact in the zone in order to beat his projections, and maybe get more aggressive in the process. He's always been a higher BABIP guy, because when he does make contact, he catches the launch-angle sweet spot 75% of the time. There's a 30-homer, .260 average with an .800 OPS to unlock here. Basically, he needs to continue to control the strike zone as he has, but make more contact within the zone. Increasing his bat speed is the key here. He's in the bottom quarter of the league in this metric. Doing this (and thus increasing the number of times wood strikes rawhide) would make Busch a borderline All-Star. Candidate 2: Cade Horton In 2023, I had tickets to a Myrtle Beach Pelicans game where a certain first-round pick was scheduled to debut. Unfortunately, the rain came, and I missed the chance to see Cade Horton's first start in the pros. You probably don't care about that. What you should care about is this: Horton seems to be healthy heading into the season. Steamer projects a whopping one inning in the major leagues for the prospect, whose star dimmed a bit due to his lost 2024. You already know about the fastball that sits 96 and one of the top-rated sliders in the minor leagues. The pedigree and potential are well established. How successfully his health rebounds (and how he's utilized) will determine whether and by how much he exceeds those projections. If he's healthy, we could be looking at a rookie season similar to the Mariners' George Kirby's in 2022. While Horton probably won't hit 130 innings, if he can have 15 starts at five innings apiece while missing bats against big-league batters, the Cubs would be adding a playoff-level starter for the stretch run. Seeing news like this and this makes this prospect doubter just a little aflutter with excitement for the possibilities that Horton flashed in 2023. The Cubs clearly believe in him. It's up to the shoulder and arm to avoid barking, to allow Horton to be the dawg the Cubs need him to be. Candidate 3: Vidal Bruján Look, he has not been a great hitter. He also might not stick on the team. But if Bruján (he of the former top-100 prospect pedigree and blazing speed that maybe, just maybe, might come back, and defensive versatility) can tap into his talent, this would be a big deal. The cost is so low, and the projections so lousy, that if he can shake off the Marlins Musk, he could become a positive contributor for years at a cheap cost. He can play outfield and almost anywhere on the infield. I don't buy it either. Let's just move on. Candidate 4: Jordan Wicks Wicks wasn't bad in the beginning of last season. In seven starts, he struck out 19.8% of opposing batters and ran a 4.70 ERA. Of his first five starts, in just one did he give up more than two runs. This was right around the level of production he flashed in 2023. After an oblique injury, he lost some velocity and was not the same pitcher, resulting in an unsightly ERA and many fans eliminating him from their minds as an option moving forward. This would be a mistake. Don't look at his Statcast; it's a sea of blue (red is good, blue not-so-good). Last year, he lost the ability to generate soft contact. Wicks' soft contact rate was cut in half from 2023 to last season. Projections do have him as a high-3s or low-4s ERA guy for this season. If Wicks can exceed this and become a reliable fourth starter, the Cubs have yet another cromulent rotation piece. This is not a stats-based prediction. It's meatbally and narrative-based. Pitchers don't develop in an orderly, linear progression. Maybe Wicks can find a fastball that works, at long last, after a couple of false starts in terms of blending shape and speed with the ability to reliably execute. Perhaps his new fitness level (seriously, dude got CUT this offseason) will cause the velocity to tick back up more easily. Don't sleep on a former top-100 prospect who was drafted in the first round. He could reach his ceiling this year. So there's four guys, any of whom (if they do better than what FanGraphs projects) would be of huge benefit to the Cubs. They might not click; projections tend to be better than our fan-shaded hearts. But these are four guys to watch to see if Jed Hoyer has been right all along. View full article

We've seen (more or less) the full force and value of the Cubs' young center fielder's speed and defense already. What has to happen, though, for his bat to round out the profile? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Pete Crow-Armstrong is aggressive. He's incredibly aggressive chasing fly balls. The dirt on many infields is churned due to his spikes. What serves him so well in other areas of the game, however, can shoot him in the foot when he's at the plate. Extremely aggressive at the plate, Crow-Armstrong hasn't yet showed the ability to make good swing decisions against the best pitchers in the world: O-Swing: 40.4% (28% is the league average). On roughly four of every 10 pitches outside the strike zone, Crow-Armstrong is swinging away. Z-Swing: 75% (67% league average): Unsurprisingly, Crow-Armstrong also loves to swing at pitches that are actually in the strike zone. Total Swinging Strike Rate: 18.4% (league average, 12%). When he's going well (as he was for much of the second half), Crow-Armstrong's athleticism and ability to attack the ball make up for whatever sins of sloppiness he commits with his approach. He batted .263/.315/.480 in July and August, with a strikeout rate of just over 16%. Even then, though, you see the drag on his OBP from all that swinging. Over the long season, it also interfered with him getting to his power. Let's summarize what happened last year with his hard contact rate, without crashing into a tsunami of numbers. Baseball Savant said he was below average in exit velocity, barrels, hard-hit percentage, launch-angle sweet spot percentage, and the squared-up metric (i.e., how squarely his bat met the ball, thus allowing his exit velocity to be an efficient reflection of his swing speed. Swinging at suboptimal pitches and making contact on them can lead to suboptimal results at the plate. Crow-Armstrong's aggressiveness could be tempered by better pitch recognition. His stats against breaking balls (.191 AVG, .391 SLG) indicate that the pitch recognition aspect is where he can improve the most. Against fastballs, by contrast, the slugging was worse, but he did raise the batting average to an above-league average of .256 (bolstered by sinkers, which were .283; on four-seam fastballs, he batted .202). One can posit that better pitch recognition would lead to a higher contact rate and better contact on the pitches swung at. If you cut Crow-Armstrong's strikeout rate by five percentage points relative to last year, he would add about 30 balls in play over 600 plate appearances. If you assume the BABIP doesn't change, the slash line will go from .237/.286/.384 to .255/.305/.400. That would probably be good for a wRC+ over 100, resulting in a WAR somewhere over 4 (when coupled with his elite defense and baserunning). It's an imperfect science, however. Swing adjustments can come with unintended consequences. Launch angle could be affected, ground-ball rate could spike, and any number of things could change the outcomes. Suffice it to say that pitch recognition and better swing decisions would benefit Crow-Armstrong, probably even more than they would help most players. Wrigley Field playing to normal levels of offense would also be a boon. Check out these splits: Home Games (Wrigley Field): Batting Average (AVG): .202 On-Base Percentage (OBP): .247 Slugging Percentage (SLG): .321 OPS: .569 Hits: 34 in 168 at-bats Home Runs (HR): 3 Runs Batted In (RBI): 15 Stolen Bases (SB): 12 Away Games: Batting Average (AVG): .265 On-Base Percentage (OBP): .317 Slugging Percentage (SLG): .436 OPS: .753 Hits: 54 in 204 at-bats Home Runs (HR): 7 Runs Batted In (RBI): 32 Stolen Bases (SB): 15 Maybe Wrigley Field won't be the pitcher's park, and the center fielder's stats will be at his road levels for 2025. Crow-Armstrong might be able to make adjustments, or he might not. He's the most exciting player on the Cubs because of his defense and speed around the bases. The hitting would take him from a fun player to a possible star to build around. At this point, I'm projecting the sophomore to slash .240/.295/.380, with around 15 home runs and 40 stolen bases, right in line with Steamer and the new projection system on FanGraphs called (hilariously) OOPSY. Nobody wants him to change who he is. Maybe just be himself less often? Regardless, Crow-Armstrong's development at the plate is a major storyline that will help define the Cubs and their future. View full article

The Cubs have decided to become an analytically driven team. For the first time, articles from league-wide sources are weighing in on all teams. The Cubs, specifically, have not fared well in these surveys. Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN / USA TODAY NETWORK The Cubs front office's perception league-wide is flagging. The farm system, long held up as a beacon of hope for fans, is losing steam. MLB.com often posts interesting topics that are meant to drive user engagement. However, their surveys, like the linked article of a survey from MLB executives, can be very interesting. Front offices around the league see the Cubs' process as ineffective. Only six percent of voters picked the Cubs as a top farm system, and only six said the Cubs were the most effective drafting organization. Acquiring talent in the international market has been a complete struggle, and developing pitching is not an area in which the Cubs are noted to excel. Two prospects from Chicago received votes. Matt Shaw received a vote for best hitting prospect, and Cade Horton a couple of votes for best pitching prospect. Cam Smith ironically received as many votes as Shaw. Do the Cubs have a talent scouting deficit? Baseball America surveyed 27 scouts (Bleacher Nation article, Baseball America behind a paywall), and the answer to this question was a resounding yes. While this is a relatively small sample size, having seven nominate the Cubs as the least scout-friendly team is jarring. They also failed to receive a vote for a team great at identifying talent. Three scouts said the Cubs were the worst at this skill. They were not mentioned either as a team that can identify marginal prospects. The Cubs have been selling fans on hope and prospects helping since 2021's selloff. The scouts' pessimism in this farm system is justified by looking at the linked FanGraphs ranking. Only Matt Shaw is projected as an above-average major-league player. Having seven prospects in the top 100 is good; the fact that only one projects well epitomizes the Jed Hoyer experience. These facts give pause to the theory that the Cubs have been building up to this point, and the farm system is ready to produce. The Cubs will likely let Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, and Ian Happ test the free-agent waters in the next two seasons. Who will replace them? Owen Caissie: probable low-contact bat with platoon issues Moises Ballesteros: can only DH or play catcher, which he hasn't been able to do James Triantos: profile much like a poor man's Nico Kevin Alcantara: underwhelming results in the minors Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Brandon Birdsell: health issues, all. The Cubs would like us all to believe, and they probably do believe themselves, that the sustainable roster will come from the farm system. Only time will tell if the team or the rest of the league are correct in their assessments. Fans need to bet that Jed Hoyer, Dan Kantrovitz, and the rest of the front office know more about their organization than the outside world does. And they are demonstrating an increasing need to hit on the farm system. These are all financially based decisions that affect the Cubs going forward: 1. Dealing Cody Bellinger for a depth reliever 2. To this point, not agreeing to terms with Kyle Tucker 3. Not extending Justin Steele 4. Letting Miles Mastrobuoni go for cheaper options (good move, but still) The Cubs rely long-term on their abilities in evaluating players to build their next "great team," as they often pontificate. If they are as wrong as the rest of the league seems to think, the future will look to be as bleak as the past six years. Only time will tell, and possibly, a new front office can flip the national narrative. View full article

The Cubs have to fix their bench. Trading Cody Bellinger and allowing Mike Tauchman to walk have raised questions about the outfield depth, specifically. What is the plan for 2025 for the backup outfielder position? Can Alexander Canario adequately fill this spot? Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images The starters are locked in. Kyle Tucker will man right field, Pete Crow-Armstrong patrols center, and Ian Happ will post up in left. Seiya Suzuki looms as the designated hitter and sometimes outfielder. The gamble is, what if Crow-Armstrong struggles again? Who fills in if someone is injured? At this point, the most likely fill-in would be Alexander Canario. As the last hope for a positive return from the Kris Bryant trade in 2021, the Cubs surely hope that he can fill in the void. (Technically, of course, Caleb Kilian is also still part of the organization. Like we said, Canario is the last hope.) Canario lacks options in 2025 and needs to be on the roster or subjected to waivers, where he would almost surely be claimed. So what can we expect from Canario if he's on the major-league roster? Defensively, it's questionable how well Canario can handle the corner outfield spots, let alone center field. A horrific ankle injury and a hamstring issue last season really seem to have taken a toll on his athleticism and range. His arm will play at any position, but the range indicates that center field would be a stretch. On offense, Canario has a profile somewhat similar to the recently jettisoned Christopher Morel. He has loud, loud tools, and when he puts it all together, the fireworks can carry an offense. Barrels and exit velocity are his game. In Iowa last season, Canario smoked the ball, with an 89.2 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate. Some 9.6% of his batted balls were what Statcast considers Barrels, a markedly above-average number. This compares favorably to noted free-agent slugger Pete Alonso (89.8 EV, 46% hard hit, 8.4% barrels), though obviously, he has to prove he can make enough contact to get to the same kind of power in the majors. The aforementioned Morel averaged 92 MPH and a 50% hard-hit rate in his breakout 2023 campaign. Canario's metrics hint at that kind of power. Another similarity between Canario and Morel is the ability to get scorching hot for weeks at a time. Check out these two stat lines for 2 week periods. Jul. 7-24, 2022: 1.575 OPS, 7 home runs in 13 games May 14-30, 2024: 1.211 OPS, also 7 dingers in 13 games. Clearly, Canario has some flashy skills with the bat. So what's holding him back? It's the whiff rate. Throughout his time in the minors, he has hovered around a 30% strikeout rate, going back to his first taste of Class-A pitching in 2019. Last season, in Iowa, he continued to strike out 30% of the time. As Ken Rosenthal examined, prospects are having a much harder time in recent years adjusting to the higher level of pitching and velocity the major leagues bring. The bat just has not made enough contact to create optimism that Canario will have an immediate impact. You have to meet the ball in order to hit it hard. Computers don't project Canario to hit consistently in the majors. ZiPS, shown here, projects only a .206 batting average, with a .272 on-base percentage and .379 slugging average. This is a disturbing projection for a power-first bat with little defensive value. If the Cubs go into the season with Canario on the roster, they will still have a massive hole as a backup center fielder. Canario cannot play this reliably; perhaps Happ or Tucker can fake it in case of injury, but for any long-term needs, they would have to turn to Kevin Alcántara. The best teams have contingency plans for when things go awry, and the Cubs simply do not have an acceptable one in center field (or second base, or third base, or first base, but those are different articles), at least among those currently projected to begin the season on their roster. Canario will not be an adequate replacement offensively or defensively for a team that hopes to contend in 2025. Saving salary by dumping Cody Bellinger and not tendering a contract to Mike Tauchman will look like a big mistake if they end up relying on Canario. Canario projects, basically, to be Patrick Wisdom off the bench, only (probably) worse. His projected WRC+ is only 92, which is unacceptable when you also factor in his negative defensive value. While he may have some fun moments, sustained production is not something his minor-league statistical profile suggests. The Cubs would be left lacking if something were to happen to a starter in the outfield, particularly if it's in center. Canario cannot be the primary backup outfielder for the Cubs in 2025. His glove is poor (his defense, that is; I'm sure his glove itself is just fine), and the bat doesn't project to make up for it. Going into this next season with him as a safety net doesn't inspire confidence. It makes a fan less likely to walk this tightrope with the Cubs as we move forward. The team needs to keep looking for better options in that spare outfielder role. View full article

Just how above-replacement are your wins, really? And just how winning is your above-replacementness? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images In a recent podcast, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic made a comment about Isaac Paredes that was quite interesting. "He's more good at accumulating WAR than actually playing baseball," Mooney said. Is this a problem with the Cubs as a whole? Does their WAR reflect their true value on the field? First of all, the Cubs' defense projects to be elite in 2025. No fewer than six players can confidently feel that they will be in the Gold Glove conversation: Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong should be considered favorites, and Kyle Tucker and Michael Busch are quality defenders, as well. Dave Szymborski tweeted his depth chart of WAR for the Cubs' position players ahead of releasing his full projections this week, and they're quite solid: The questions are, how much are those WAR totals buoyed by defense, and is there enough offense to really make them add up? Swanson (99) and Hoerner (102) were roughly average hitters by wRC+ last year, but their elite defense raises their WAR. Crow-Armstrong is in a similar boat; his 2.7 WAR last season was almost entirely defense-based (87 WRC+). The catcher spot, even with Carson Kelly added, should not be counted on for offense. At this moment, the Cubs are running a risk of having their fifth-through-ninth spots in the lineup occupied by below-average bats. Matt Shaw could come in and produce, of course, and Crow-Armstrong could replicate his August and September from last season. For what it's worth, Szymborski's ZiPS projects both of them to be cromulent at the plate, with Shaw forecasted for a .247/.320/.402 line and 100 wRC+ and Crow-Armstrong slated to go .249/.302/.412, a 97 wRC+. Swanson was a different player after his stint on the DL with a knee, and his core surgery should also help. There is cause for optimism, along with any concern. The Cubs will be an interesting test case. They have an elite bat now (in Kyle Tucker), and according to WAR, they boast a quality player in every position. The defense, as we've already discussed, could be superb. If you are a pitching and defense fan, the Cubs will be the team for you to watch in 2025. In many games, they will have a Gold Glove winner or candidate in seven positions. The defense will accumulate WAR. Time (and the crack of their bats) will tell if this also will accumulate enough wins to make the playoffs in 2025. View full article