Jed Hoyer And Failure To Work Effectively In The Margins

The first margin Jed Hoyer struggles to fill is which prospects to trade. In obtaining Kyle Tucker, he traded Cam Smith, one of the few prospects in the system with true star potential. Smith is competing this preseason for a starting job in Houston less than a year after being drafted. If Tucker is not retained, this trade will haunt the Cubs for years. Michael Busch was another key acquisition but came at a steep prospect cost: Zyhir Hope and Jackson Ferris are both now top 100 prospects. Hope has particular helium as one of the top ten guys in some publications. 

These trades have value for the big league team, but Hoyer has not correctly identified which prospects to keep and which to dangle in trades. If Zyhir Hope and Cam Smith reach their pedigree, this could be like the Astros dealing Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson or (gasp) the Cubs dealing Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio. Other teams seem to have scouted the Cubs more effectively than the Cubs have self-scouted. Of course, we'll have to see how it plays out, but prospect rankings have not been kind to the Cubs' decision-making process.

The bullpen is another area the Cubs have not done well on the cheap. Jed has followed the same blueprint this offseason: cheap arms on short deals. At this point, the closer is Ryan Pressly, who has declining metrics; Porter Hodge, who somehow found control after struggling with walks in the minors; reclamation former prospect Nate Pearson, fringe reliever Eli Morgan; senior citizens Ryan Brasier and Caleb Thielbar; and a bunch of prospects who throw hard but have no idea where it's going (Luke Little, Daniel Palencia, etc.) The question is if the bullpen is truly deeper than 2024.

It is not. There are more arms, sure. The arms are just not high-quality ones. Once again, the Cubs will throw relievers at the wall and see which ones stick. This is fraught with risk, and a repeat performance of 2023 and 2024 is not just possible; it could be seen as probable. Jed's strategy of building a bullpen is hazardous and not sustainable year to year. We can only hope this year is an on year for the Cub's stable of unproven relievers.

On the bench, Hoyer once again is taking chances. Justin Turner, on paper, is a good signing, but at age 40, we need to remember that Father Time will be knocking on the door sooner rather than later. Gage Workman would be a cost-effective infield backup if his bat can translate from Double-A to the majors. Vidal Brujan is another cheap but uninspiring option. 

For years, the Cubs have struggled to identify quality bench players. They may have enough this season, but it certainly is a risk. Another area of the Cubs to monitor is this group. It has the makings of a solid group, but based on Jed's record, confidence from this vantage point is low (Tre Mancini, Eric Hosmer, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Nick Madrigal come to mind).

Jed Hoyer is not terrible at his job. To this point, he has not hit on the moves that his reduced budget requires him to make. If this trend turns around, we're in for a fun season in Wrigley Field. If not, we can look forward to a revamped front office when the season ends.