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The Cubs front office's perception league-wide is flagging. The farm system, long held up as a beacon of hope for fans, is losing steam.
MLB.com often posts interesting topics that are meant to drive user engagement. However, their surveys, like the linked article of a survey from MLB executives, can be very interesting. Front offices around the league see the Cubs' process as ineffective. Only six percent of voters picked the Cubs as a top farm system, and only six said the Cubs were the most effective drafting organization. Acquiring talent in the international market has been a complete struggle, and developing pitching is not an area in which the Cubs are noted to excel.
Two prospects from Chicago received votes. Matt Shaw received a vote for best hitting prospect, and Cade Horton a couple of votes for best pitching prospect. Cam Smith ironically received as many votes as Shaw. Do the Cubs have a talent scouting deficit?
Baseball America surveyed 27 scouts (Bleacher Nation article, Baseball America behind a paywall), and the answer to this question was a resounding yes. While this is a relatively small sample size, having seven nominate the Cubs as the least scout-friendly team is jarring. They also failed to receive a vote for a team great at identifying talent. Three scouts said the Cubs were the worst at this skill. They were not mentioned either as a team that can identify marginal prospects.
The Cubs have been selling fans on hope and prospects helping since 2021's selloff. The scouts' pessimism in this farm system is justified by looking at the linked FanGraphs ranking. Only Matt Shaw is projected as an above-average major-league player. Having seven prospects in the top 100 is good; the fact that only one projects well epitomizes the Jed Hoyer experience.
These facts give pause to the theory that the Cubs have been building up to this point, and the farm system is ready to produce. The Cubs will likely let Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, and Ian Happ test the free-agent waters in the next two seasons. Who will replace them?
Owen Caissie: probable low-contact bat with platoon issues
Moises Ballesteros: can only DH or play catcher, which he hasn't been able to do
James Triantos: profile much like a poor man's Nico
Kevin Alcantara: underwhelming results in the minors
Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Brandon Birdsell: health issues, all.
The Cubs would like us all to believe, and they probably do believe themselves, that the sustainable roster will come from the farm system. Only time will tell if the team or the rest of the league are correct in their assessments. Fans need to bet that Jed Hoyer, Dan Kantrovitz, and the rest of the front office know more about their organization than the outside world does.
And they are demonstrating an increasing need to hit on the farm system. These are all financially based decisions that affect the Cubs going forward:
1. Dealing Cody Bellinger for a depth reliever
2. To this point, not agreeing to terms with Kyle Tucker
3. Not extending Justin Steele
4. Letting Miles Mastrobuoni go for cheaper options (good move, but still)
The Cubs rely long-term on their abilities in evaluating players to build their next "great team," as they often pontificate. If they are as wrong as the rest of the league seems to think, the future will look to be as bleak as the past six years. Only time will tell, and possibly, a new front office can flip the national narrative.
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