Stratos

I agree that most teams, including the Cubs, have a number they're willing to bid up to for every player that they won't go past, including for a Ohtani. There's a number where Ohtani makes sense, and there's a number where he no longer makes sense, same for every player. This is the same for pretty much anyone bidding on anything. There's some fans (not saying it's JD94) who say "the Cubs shouldn't be worried about the numbers, if they want Ohtani just go out and get him", but that's not the way it works, and it would be irresponsible for any team including the Cubs to act like this. At the end of the day, a team's payroll has a finite limit the owner is willing to set and the Cubs need to build the best team possible using that limit, which means not being foolish and drastically over-paying for players. My one worry is that Ricketts and the Cubs will prioritize Ohtani for all the extra profit he will make ownership rather than how much Ohtani will improve the team, and pay him based on that profit-generation rather than on his ability to make the team better. In other words, I don't want the Cubs to be stuck with a crazy Ohtani contract that will make Ricketts lots of money but over the long term not be what's best for the Cubs winning as many games as possible, which is all I care about.

Unless they sign another Japanese FA

I think Ross put the best team on the field in order to win the most games

That's hard to say, since Madrigal was putting up gold glove caliber defense at 3B and no obvious good bat on the bench to move into the DH slot if Morel moved to 3b.

Then offer something else. Morel + Brown. If Morel played middle infield a full season I think his WAR would be somewhere in the 3's.

Bichette would play 3B for the Cubs I imagine, and I think based on his sub-FA salary and 2 seasons left before FA he would make a very good fit at least until Shaw might be ready. Bichette could still be traded again by the Cubs (ie 2025 trade deadline) before FA if Shaw progresses and doesn't get hurt. Jays are still in a playoff window so would probably demand players at or near the MLB. I'm thinking Morel and maybe a pitcher, like Wesneski + another prospect. Morel could play SS/2B for them and be much cheaper than Bichette, so in theory it works for the Jays. Besides the pen, the Cubs can't get much better in FA this offseason unless they spend well over the CBT line, because they still need to replace the value lost from Bellinger and Stroman. A trade for a very good player with surplus like Bichette would be good for the team for 2024.

He played for the same team as Shota Imanaga last year, which is interesting. A product of the scouting department over there taking lots of looks at Imanaga me thinks. edit: The last several years it looks like.

He's never pitched an inning in the MLB, so GM's need to factor that risk in. I don't see how the calculation would change based on his race. If I were to bet then I'd predict he'd achieve an ERA around the low 3's as most very good SP do, but the data to project future performance available for him isn't the same as GM's had with Gerrit Cole. His numbers seem to compare fairly well to Yu Darvish's when he pitched in Japan, though that was a different baseball era as well and Darvish had somewhat better stuff in Japan it seems. His age is also going to benefit his contract in a big way, not the opposite.

Losing Bellinger is -4 wins, adding Ohtani is about +6 wins next year with him not pitching. Ability to shift Morel to 3B might nab us an extra win, maybe 2 if things go well. So we're up 3-4 wins. Then it depends what they do at 1B and CF to replace Bellinger. Hoskins might nab us a win or 2, though we might see Morel/Mervis at 1B. We also need to add a decent SP to replace Stroman, which makes Hoskins less likely with Ohtani due to money. Based on our pythag run differential last year, if we're able to sort out the bullpen it's possible we'd get over 90 wins next year. All told, Ohtani is replacing what we lose in Bellinger. We're adding about 2 wins over last year plus whatever Morel can add elsewhere until Ohtani can pitch again. That assumes the Cubs are still spending what they did on everything else last year including a TORP thus going over the CBT. If the Cubs don't go over the CBT Ohtani doesn't add anything compared to last year, we're just moving pieces around on the board because we don't project to add too much surplus next season. Replacing Bellinger's surplus will be difficult enough.

JD might age regress, or he may not. It's one year. I prefer Hoskins but he still is a risk.

JD and Turner are risks for age, and Hoskins is risk due to injury and layoff. Either way lots of question marks

If he makes 50m a year and brings in 100m.... he might sign for more than 50m AAV. And he stillpays for himself. Going over the cbt line for both Dodgers and Cubs changes the calculation but we still have a good shot. With Yamamoto and other Japanese pitchers being posted for only 45 days and Dodgers and Cubs being interested there too, gotta believe Ohtani signs before Xmas

He'd probably want a 1-yr for 2025, so 2 yrs total, which would be fine. Lots of teams will be interested, wonder what he'd command for the 2025 year. Maybe he'll just want 1 yr now, and go to FA and get another 1 yr. Who knows.

They'll make moves no doubt. If they acquire 1 INF, 1 OF, 1 SP, and 2 relievers that's 5 spots to make room. Probably a combo of non-tenders and trades. Heuer, Rucker, and others on the bubble. Canario has played some CF in AAA and MLB, if no Bellinger then maybe they go with him to platoon with Tauchman instead of going to FA i.e. Bader? PCA has a shot but is LHB, both on the 40-man already.

There was a video on Youtube I watched yesterday with clips from a recent interview from Hoyer. I can't find the clip again. Hoyer says the money spent on Craig Counsell is not indicative that they're going to go out and have a big blockbuster offseason. However, he said it could happen if things go their way and deals fall into place. Purposefully vague I guess. I'm thinking they have a list of guys they're interested in and they inquire and probably make offers, but if the bidding goes so high that they don't feel it's a good contract then they move on. Rather than targeting 1 or 2 guys they really want and go all-in to get them. Probably what happened with the big SS last season and landed Swanson since he was by far the best deal.

He's not my ideal regular 3B for sure, just saying we have some good fielders.

Hughes in the mix too as LHP, maybe battles with Little. Smyly will make the team. Wesneski needs to figure out his FB, could see him doing it in Iowa. We need some vets who can get outs and provide leeadership, I don't see Rucker with much of a shot without injuries. Palencia and Thompson and other guys in the mix. I'm sure they sign some wildcard FAs to minor league deals like they do every offseason.

Madrigal had a shot if he played the whole season. Add PCA, that's one heck of a defense.

I don't think how Hoyer has treated Mervis is any different than any other prospect, except maybe a guy who can field well so you can live with a struggling bat for a bit. I can't see the Cubs giving any prospect a starting job without showing they can play up to par. I'm just saying they'll try Mervis again at 1B before Caissie so he doesn't have the clearest path there. I've never seen any outlet rate Caissie at a 50 glove or above. MLB.com has his glove at a 45. You can play a guy at any position but it doesn't mean he's going to field it adequately. If they have any plans for him at 1B in the future they better give him a lot of practice in Iowa next year because he hasn't fielded one grounder as a pro. MLB isn't a good place to learn a new position unless you're already a good fielder and can handle about anything. I'm not particularly worried about finding Caissie a spot, things can change in a year or 2 and he can DH. We should be focused on filling 1B and other positions next year.

Happ and Seiya are signed through 2026. Caissie should be ready by 2025 some time, if not later next season if he continues to progress well. He could DH, and Happ could possibly be traded before his contract is up if Caissie hits well and they want to unload some cash for other acquisitions or recoup prospects at the 2026 trade deadline. I don't see them moving someone already below average defensively to a new and very different position on the infield in this situation, especially when they also have Mervis to give PA's next year in MLB. At most I suppose they could give him a few innings here and there in Iowa next year at 1B just for the heck of it.

Yeah he had a bad year in 2022, I can see teams being hesitant. But 3 of the last 4 seasons he's had good years (2020 was COVID shortened), though 2020-21 he had a high BABIP. I'm more interested in paying for tools/abilities than just stats since the latter can vary season to season. He seems like an above average hitter and average fielder.

Didn't know this, but Candelario was non-tendered by the Tigers last offseason.

There's lots of decent choices there. I think it becomes a question of who the Cubs are able to get as the bigger bat (if any), which will determine how they proceed with the other holes. I suspect a trade on the offense side. If they don't sign Bellinger I could see them signing Bader in CF. If they acquire Soto or Ohtani then maybe Hoskins at 1B or someone like Candelario/Polanco who can play both 3B and 1B. Trade for Alonso then they might be able to roll with that or pick up someone at 3B. Cubs were 6th in MLB in runs scored last year, but 16th in runs allowed even with a good defense, so improving pitching should be the priority, as long as they can replace Bellinger's production.

In the MLB Happ has played 185 innings at 3B and 61 innings at 1B. He only played 2B in the infield in the minors. He'd probably do ok but would say putting a back-to-back gold glove LF in the infield is probably not wise. Morel would probably be at least average at any position they wanted if they left him at one darn position and just let him play.

Kind of weird for Preller to make any comment at all