Rcal10

Ian Happ has averaged about a 3.8WAR over the last 4 years. I don’t care what position he plays, that is very good. Your example probably nets the Cubs about 2 WAR for left field. And those two guys instead of Happ probably saves the Cubs maybe $10M a year. That $10M was not what stopped the Cubs from adding anything last year and it won’t this year. Aside from that, Shaw had a decent WAR anyway. So if Happ could play 3rd, which then you would feel he is worth it, they would be losing Shaw’s WAR to gain Tauchman/Refsnyder’s WAR and paying $10M+ for that instead of league minimum. And Happ’s WAR would go down playing 3rd base. It just doesn’t make sense.

To be fair ‘24 was an accounting error if we are being honest. As for ‘19 and ‘20 they went over becsuse they were having to pay their arbitration guys a lot of money. They did not just spend in free agents and go over. Again, I hope they do. And it does make sense to go over. But until they do go over without worrying about the first line of the LT and the or penalties that come with it, I won’t believe they will do it.

It all sounds good and reasonable, but I doubt it. I would have to see it before believing they will actually go over the LT line. What you are saying would be awesome. But they have disappointed us too often to think they won’t again, this year.

While I am sure Jason is spot on with everything under the hood pointing to Keller being better than Fairbanks, I am not sure it matters for next year. With pen arms every year is a new hood. I have seen it way too often where people make a case for one pen arm and another does better. Fairbanks would be perfectly fine with me, and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he had a better year than Keller. If the option was Fairbanks on a 2/$20M deal or Keller on a 3/$38M I am happy with Fairbanks. Keller might get more because someone might see him as a starter.

Ok, cool. Thought it was him, but I also saw Leiter Jr mentioned. I like Fairbanks more than Leiter jr. I also am not sure he won’t be better than Keller. Relievers are strange. One good year like Keller had doesn’t mean he has another. Unless you are elite, you are a question mark, IMO.

Who is the 3rd we are talking about? I see Williams and Fairbanks.

Either would work for me. But I agree with you that Fairbanks seems more in line what they appear to be willing to offer.

I think if they get the pitcher via trade (Ryan, Cabrera or Gore, as examples) and then maybe add Refsnyder and Castro to the bench they can get pen arms by spending a bit. Maybe even extend PCA.

Doesn’t matter. Don’t you know facts don’t matter to a lot of people?

Except he sucked against left handed pitching last year. He would be a hard pass for me. Much rather have Refsnyder for less.

Yes he was. Guess the question should be who will be the first FA to sign and switch teams?

Agreed. Back to baseball. If Refsnyder is the right handed bat off the bench the Cubs want AND If he could play a little first base and not be too expensive he would be fine. It would allow them to spend elsewhere. He does but lefties well. If getting him allows them to spend big on a starting pitcher and pen help, he works for me. Maybe bring Castro back too. Bench would be Castro, Refsnyder, back up catcher and ?. Last spot in the line up goes to Cassie or Mo.

Never an excuse for disrespect. I don’t care what you do. And what you do shouldn’t come into play here. This is a site for people to post ideas and discuss baseball. There doesn’t need to be snippy comments or “know it all comments” to anyone.

Let’s start with what I agree with you about. I agree it is very unlikely Taillon gets traded, period. I also agree if the Cubs plan to add Cabrera and King, now would be the time they would trade Taillon. And finally, I agree with you that the FO has repeatedly suggested they will be adding to the staff this off season. But to me, that means they are taking from the staff now, by trading Taillon. Now, to where we differ. First, if the rotation is healthy and pitching well the Cubs don’t have to worry about Wiggins. They would have 5 starters. I also don’t think it is that crazy for one team to want a pitcher and have a platoon bat or a pen arm they would be willing to trade. Like Monty for Bader. I do expect the Cubs to be in contention, so I think a dump trade of Taillon is less likely than trading him because they have enough starting pitching and can use help elsewhere. While I agree with you that the Cubs getting King and Cabrera now would make Taillon tradable now, I feel it is far less likely they add those two guys now then it is they add one guy and all the starters are healthy and pitching well at the TDL. Honestly, the entire discussion boils down to scenarios. When you want to make your point you use your scenerio. When banks and I want to make our point we make our scenerio. IMO all are equally possible (as in… NOT VERY POSSIBLE) so I go back to the point I started with. I agree with you that Taillon won’t be traded.

Right now he is. But at the TDL if all the Cubs starters are healthy and pitching well and if the Cubs need a platoon bat or a pen arm more than a 6th starter, Taillon is more valuable as a trade chip. While this is unlikely, I think it is more likely then the Cubs dumping him at the deadline because they aren’t competing. I expect them to be in contention. I also think it is more likely they trade him at the TDL then doing so now. Now he is needed because they don’t have Steele and probably aren’t very sure about Shota. If all are pitching well they can afford to move one. Similar to the Yankees trading Montgomery to the Cardinals for Bader. Yankees valued a bat more than another pitcher because they felt they had enough pitching.

If that is the case, and if Imai is going to be a $20M yearly commitment as well, then I think the only way they will get a TOR starter is through a trade. I figured, before Shota, the Cubs would sign a FA pitcher and then trade for one. Total cost of 2 of them would be $35M-$40M. So any FA pitcher was an option because even if they went big on Cease they can trade for Ryan, Gore or Cabrera. But if they signed King or Suarez they can add Alcantara and Lopez into the mix of options. Now that Shota took up $22M I don’t see another $25M+ going towards a pitcher. I know it shouldn’t matter. A lot of money comes off the books next year. And IMO the landscape of baseball will be spending more money. So the Cubs shouldn’t have anything to worry about. But I fear they will use the LT as an excuse not to spend on a TOR starter.

I think the Cease ship has sailed. I agree with you about being estatic about any in that group, but I think it has to come via trade. I think Valdez and Suarez are out of reach as well. From a FA perspective I can only see King, if he can be had for 3 or 4 years averaging around $22M (and you wouldn’t be happy with him) and Imai. So, to me, the only way this can realistically work out to your satisfaction is via a trade for Cabrera, Gore, Lopez or Ryan, or they sign Imai.

Agree to disagree. I am done with this.

I disagree. There could be a very good reason for not trading Taillon now but then dealing him at the deadline. If the Cubs aren’t sure what they get out of Steele or Imanaga they would hold onto Jano now. But if Steele comes back healthy and Shota is looking like 2024 Shota and all pitchers are healthy, they can deal Taillon. All you have to do is look back to 2022 when the Yankees (who won the division) traded Montgomery to the Cardinals at the deadline to know it does happen. And the scenerio j just laid out is the scenerio where it could happen. I am in no way suggesting it will happen. I am just saying the Cubs can be contending (which I believe they will be) and still trade Taillon at the deadline. Probably not for a prospect. But for a bat as a part time starter, solid platoon hitter, or a pen arm.

It isn’t my presumption. It is a scenerio that could happen. Banks suggested trading Taillon at the deadline. He was clearly talking about having a strong rotation to the point of being able to trade Taillon. The next post suggested the only way they would do that was if they were not contending. I just pointed out that was not what he was saying. And if they went to the deadline with 6 healthy starters they can move Jamo. This year they were always a guy short and also had a couple guys on fumes. So they ran out of pitchers. If they have 6 healthy pitchers pitching well at this deadline and still have Rea, Assad, Wicks and Wiggins as possible options if needed, that is a far cry from what happened last year. So they can trade him. I am not advocating this. I am just giving the scenario that I believe banks was coming from.

The thought process around here should be expected. It is what the Cubs do. I am. It saying what the Cubs do is right. It’s not. They should spend. But when Shota eats up $22M of the $65-$70M they most likely will spend(hopefully, at least that much anyway) the fan base is very correct to assume they won’t do certain things. Again, I agree with you that it isn’t right that this large market team is run this way. It shouldn’t be. But since it is, why should fans be talking about Cease and Tucker when we know they aren’t coming?

Not in the scenerio banks laid out. If they get a starter in a trade (let’s say Cabrera) they then start the season with 5 definite starters. Now if Steele comes back and there are no injuries they have 6. They still probably have Rea, and 2 of the following (Wicks, Brown, Assad) plus the possibility of Wiggins coming up. They can absolutely be in the race and winning the division and still trade Taillon. This is provided they are getting good results from the other pitchers. Shota looks like 2024 Shota, Steele if pitching injury free, Boyd is doing well and Horton and Cabrera are also doing well. They can afford to deal Taillon at the deadline even if they are winning the division.

They are getting a pick for Tucker, so I don’t see them shying away from a guy with a QO either. I think the bigger issue is they only have maybe $45M to work with to stay below the LT line. Need a couple of pen arms(at least) one right handed bat who can play first and then another SP. That is tough to do on $45M unless the pitcher comes in a trade and is controllable only making $6M to $10M. And this is assuming Alcantara is the 4th outfielder and either Mo or Cassie is the left handed DH. They can do it, but they have to fill a need cheaply.

I agree. I also do not see how they are not competing at the TDL. Add a MOR starter, a couple of pen arms and a bench bat who hits right handed and can play 1st base and they are definitely contending. They should do more, but at the very least they will still be an 88-92 win team. I think Imanaga signing makes it more likely that pitcher comes through a trade rather than FA. But I think it will come. Cabrera, Rasmussen, Gore or Ryan are options.

Yes, love to hear what Jason has to say. I don’t agree with Chibear at all, but wondering if others think they won’t compete.