Rcal10
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I honestly don’t see the need for Wisdom. If Morel can handle third you have Madrigal and Mastrobouni as a defensive replacement/ utility infielders. If he can’t handle it one of them plays 3rd and Morel is the DH. For a bench bat / platoon at first I would rather see Cooper. IMO if you can get a young guy they don’t have to put on the 40 man for Wisdom they should trade him and save a few dollars.
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Let’s make is simple. My expectation of him is for him to be a solid everyday player. Honestly I don’t know what goes into that to get him to a 2.6-4.0 WAR ballplayer year in and year out. But that’s my hope for him. Solid major league ballplayer. That is not too high a bar for a top 20 prospect in the game.
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Who put him at 128? I said during his peak years(I probably should have said prime) is it realistic to hope for his offensive production to be 10% to 15% above league average. Basically right around Happ OPS+ average. Is that fair expectation. Or are we looking offensively at Badar/Kiermaier offensively? Is that what we should realistically expect. Also a WAR if 2.0 or 2.2 is not that valuable. Maybe an average ballplayer. Kiermaier did that with being possibly the best defensive centerfielder ever(and definitely the best now). So if he was just a very good defender that WAR might be closer to 1.5-1.8. Is that something we should be hoping for PCA? I think it is equally unrealistic to expect PCA to be as good as Kiermaier defensively as it is to expect him to have OPS of 800. So again, is it realistic to put expectations of PCA to be a guy about 10% to 15% over league average and a top 3-5 centerfielder in the game today. Unrealistic or not, that is what I am hoping for him. Most likely not in 24. I am talking about when he hits his prime. I certainly hope that is the ballplayer he becomes.
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So are we all in agreement that a good peak year season for PCA would be a top 3-5 centerfielder in the game today with maybe OPS+ of around 110-115? No one is arguing if he is less than that he won’t be valuable. I get his defense alone makes him have value. My entire discussion was strictly on his offensive ability. To me, a peak year offensive number that has him 10% over league average is not being unrealistic. Or is it? Is the view on PCA he is strictly a glove guy and be happy with 5-10% below league average offensively? To me, that would be disappointing, even though he would provide value with defense alone. That sort of guy isn’t a everyday player for long. Kind of a Bader, Bradley Jr sort of guy. .
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Mike Cameron has a career batting line line of .249/.338/.444 for OPS of 782. OPS+ of 106. So now that is too much to ask for from PCA offensively? That is too high a bar? I feel the bar keeps getting lower on what people hope/expect out of him. If you read my post I didn’t suggest he would be Cameron defensively. I said I would like him to be a top 3 centerfielder in the game today. That is actually lowering the bar that some use when they want to talk about his defense being that of Kieemaier. I was only pointing out he didn’t have to be Kiermaier. Going back to Cameron, he averaged about 16-17 homers a year and about 17-18 SB a year over his 17 year career. He did that during the live ball steroids era as well. So dialing that homer average down a few to maybe 12-14 a year and I think PCA should steal more bases on a yearly average, why is a typical Cameron year unrealistic to suggest for PCA? Why is OPS of 106 something we should not hope for over his career? What is a realistic expectancy out of PCA? What does he need to do to be considered a guy who played as expected? Is Harrison Bader the bar? Jackie Bradley Jr2018(.234/314/.403) He won the GG that year.
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Personally I think expecting him to be Kiermaier defensively is not realistic either. But the people who suggest 800-850 OPS are pointing to the same thing the people who are calling him the best centerfielder ever. His history in the minors. To me both expectations are silly. He can be a very fine major league ballplaywe being one of the best centerfielders in the game(Not the best of all time) and a decent bat similar to someone like Cameron. But if his bat is between .700-.730 in his prime, while his defense will still provide a lot of value. That would be a bit underwhelming to me. I have not given up on him offensively. I am not that person. But I do have to say, he needs time at AAA to work on his hitting and I am a little concerned about it.
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But Morel at 3rd opens up the opportunity for a bat only guy. Maybe not this minute. Maybe not even this year. But there is an incentive for them to find out if he can do it. This year alone, if they knew he could play the position they could go out and sign JDM or Belt. Next year if Cassie, Canario, Shaw or anyone else forced their way into the line up, the Cubs could have a spot for him. If Bellinger stays a second year and PCA comes up next year, they can fit them both in the line up along with Happ, Busch and Suzuki, if Morel plays 3rd. I am not saying it will happen. All I am saying is that is the incentive.
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Half the time I don’t know what the hell you are even talking about so maybe I misunderstood your original point. But didn’t you suggest the Cubs don’t really care if Morel can play 3rd and they really don’t have much incentive? Isn’t the fact that if he can play 3rd they can pick whoever else they want in the line up instead of having to have a spot for a weaker hitting 3rd baseman enough of an incentive? In fact, that’s the Cubs incentive, period. And if you ask me a damn good incentive.
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Very encouraging performance.
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Didn’t Killian go to the 60 day IL? If he did he comes off the 40 man. They don’t have to make that decision.
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- christopher morel
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Even before PCA comes back up Morel at 3rd allows the Cubs to pick the guy who has the best match up against the pitcher that day as the DH. If Canario or Cooper make the team either can be in the line up at DH against a lefty, If it is a right handed pitcher maybe Tauchman or Mastrobouni make the line up. Maybe instead of PCA in June, Cassie is raking and they bring him up to DH. So many options if Morel can lock the position down.
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And now a Busch homer against a lefty.
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If they dealt him for an A ballplayer not in the 40 man roster and the team he was traded too took his entire salary I couldn’t care lesss how bad the prospect they got back was.
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If Morel plays third when PCA comes back I don’t automatically see Belli at 1st and Busch DH. I think DH rotates between Bellinger, Busch, Happ and Suzuki. But that said, I agree with everything else you said.
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Got to love the Busch double against lefty.
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If PCA plays to a .98 OPS+ that’s a disappointing career offensively based on what most people, including me, hoped for. Sure, if he was rated a top 5 defensive outfielders all time, he would still bring a lot of value and be an everyday starter. But would be lying if I said I would be happy with that offensive production. And I think most want/expect more. Keep in mind, I have never suggested he won’t be better offensively than that. I am not totally down on him. I am just not sure he will be the hitter some have suggested. I am not sure he will ever be an 800 OPS guy, let alone the 850, previously suggested. But I do still hope he post better offensive numbers than Kiermaier.
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Obviously Morel has an incentive to find a home as well. If he becomes an average 3rd baseman defensively he makes a whole lot more money than he would as strictly a DH. But the Cubs incentive is if he can handle 3rd it gives them a plus bat there and the ability to rotate DH and/or sign or bring up a bat only guy to DH. In the event PCA comes up at some point this year and if Busch is playing well at 1st they can rotate DH between any of the 3 current staring outfielders and Busch and give each a day off of the field while keeping their bats in the line up. If Morel can handle third that means they don’t have to have one of Madrigal/Wisdom/Mastrobouni in the line up but rather have a better bat there. Instead of Madrigal at 3rd and Morel at DH against a lefty they could have Morel at 3rd and maybe Cooper (who crushes lefties) at DH. Morel at 3rd (if he could handle it) just makes for the opportunity of a better line up. That is incentive enough for the Cubs.
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Finally, common ground. I agree with this. 😀
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I think we are discussing two different things here. I don’t think anyone is saying he can put up a decent WAR as a pro. But I do think many have higher aspirations for him. Many have suggested he will hit. And if he turns out to be Kiermaier with the bat, that is not hitting. Earlier we had guys suggesting his peak years to be an .850 guy. We have had others suggest .800 as a typical season. So when I say I am not sure he will be that guy or even I do worry about his bat, that is what I am referencing Sure, he could be that 700 OPS guy you suggest and would be valuable. But he would also be disappointing to many, including me.
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If he is strictly working in the pen he will be up soon enough this year. I hope he is starting, however. And even then I expect him up. (probably in the pen) I just think you rush time lines a bit. Cubs have several options in the pen. I honestly think it is going to be a strength this year. Really like the last 3, Neris, Merryweather and Alzolay. I do think Smyly and Little are making the team. Then you have several other options. Assad, Wesneski, Edwards, Almonte, Lieter, Palencia and Thompson plus maybe someone I am missing. The issue is, if Edwards isn’t on the team he probably goes elsewhere. Guys like Almonte and Lieter don’t have options left. Right now it is a numbers game and Brown hasn’t proven enough to the Cubs to earn a spot at the expense of having to let someone go for him to be on the OD roster. He is being sent down because they could send him down without losing him. I also don’t agree with you that he would be one of the top 3 or 4 guys in the pen. I think he could be. He could be a stud one inning guy. But he also could walk too many guys to be successful. And right now the Cubs don’t want to take that risk at the expense of losing someone for good.
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Not me. That would mean people concerned about his hit tool are right. He can’t hit. I am not willing to accept that yet, and would never be thrilled with it. He might very well be just that and have a decent career. But I think most people, including me, hope for more out of him.
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Maybe you don’t consider this a make or break spring , but you did say put him on the roster or trade him. That seems pretty make or break to me. Even with all those year in the minors that you keep referring to, he hasn’t thrown that many innings there. Through 2021 he was around 100 innings. I will say it again, just relax your time line a little. He doesn’t have to be in the pen now. And maybe sending him down he starts and actually figures out how to throw more strikes. He would be much more valuable as a TOR starter than an 8th inning pen guy. And if he doesn’t figure it out they can always convert him then into that pen arm you want now. I do think he ends up a solid pen arm. But to me, it is worth it to see if he can start. And the place for that is AAA.
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Oh, ok. No I am not damming him to failure. But he does need work. To me Kiermaier is his floor, I HOPE. I agree some people overreact.
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I agree with this, but I think most fans expected more. Maybe they still do. I remember someone suggesting he should be an 850OPS guy during his prime years. While I think he can be very valuable as a glove first guy who can hit league average, I don’t see that 850 guy. I would be very happy with a guy at a 760 OPS with great defense. Something like .265/..335/.760. That would be a solid starting balllayer when coupled with his defense and base running.
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I do remember him with the Mets. I agree, he was brutal. I was very surprised to see he was viewed as a decent third baseman last year. Guess it was a fluke.
