KCCub
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Freeman out as well
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Spring Training Moves/Transactions Thread
KCCub replied to Outshined_One's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I’ll probably eat crow by the end of the season but I’ve been extremely bearish on them simply because of their pitching staff. They weren’t great on paper and now have lost Montas and Manaea to injuries that are likely to cause them to miss starts. Now they are relying on a healthy Senga and Clay Homes in his first year starting. I’ve thought all along that they would be the team who pays up for Cease -
Tucker day!
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Yep Cowles having a day
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Spring Training Moves/Transactions Thread
KCCub replied to Outshined_One's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Not sure where else to put this, but found it noteworthy - "Thankful for Tom (Todd & Laura), spent a long time talking about the pursuit of him (Bregman). They were willing to sort of greenlight us pushing our budget". Maybe I'm looking too much into those remarks, but there's some good and bad there potentially. The good is maybe Tom was willing to go over the Lux tax line. The bad is if that is true, maybe there was a world where Nico didn't need to be traded and we had a studly infield with a nice super util guy in Shaw, which makes missing out hurt more. -
Your giving Tom ammo with posts like this. Trading Mookie in the first place was the dumb part. But is it really stupid for the new Red Sox leadership group to sign a good player at a position of need if their owner is willing to go over the tax line? I wouldn't call that stupid, they've had a damn good offseason. Moral of the story, context matters for each team/move.
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Anxious to see what the final deferral numbers are - Sox choose to block a better prospect than Shaw in Campbell, and pay a premium AAV (Well at least until the deferral luxury tax value is finalized). This is going to be a fun follow over the next 2-3 years to see how it plays out.
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Tigers offer maybe?
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I was on the "Give Canario a chance" train last season. But here's my negatives for him if he's your best bench bat - 83 wRC+ projected overall. In the days off/injury/platoon scenarios that we've beat to death, is he the guy you want getting 300 ABs? In the "got to have it" PH scenarios for Busch/PCA, is he the guy you want to PH knowing his quality of contact? Bases loaded, 1 out, tough lefty on the mound, need the ball put in play, etc He's not a 1b Why not roll with Turner/Canario/Berti/Kelly? You have 5 OFers then on the roster, and all positions covered with backups who can handle each position on the field. On top of that, you have a guy in JT who you feel ok with in the starting role when needed.
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While I agree with your overall math point, (and I don't want to open up a can of worms here in a JT thread which might be completely moot) but there's WPA (Win Probability Added) and WE (Win Expectancy) in play here and we could go down a rabbit hole on how much having JT in certain situations could lead to more real world wins vs not having JT available in said situations vs just looking at how his entire season plays out above replacement level player. We'll just call it that I have personal beliefs that having a good RH bench/platoon player, with how the roster is currently constructed, could lead to more real world wins vs his 1 fWAR projection
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The 5 posts above explain why holding onto $30m until the TDL is overkill but here's a few additional thoughts: 1. One or two additional wins in April of 2023 sure would have been nice right? Fixing holes now have a larger impact on how your season plays out. (That does not mean you have to have your full playoff roster set before the season and signing JT and/or adding a SP now does not mean the roster is complete) 2. We just don't know who will be available at the TDL. We can confidently say there will be a bunch of BP arms moved and the higher end ones will require premium prospect capital. Difference maker SP will be sought after by almost every team in playoff contention and there won't be enough available arms to satisfy every team's wants. Last season's TDL impact arms were what Flaherty and Kikuchi? And then you had a few innings eaters types in Montas, Civale, Lorenzon, etc. I'm sure I'm missing someone, but there's just not a guarantee the dream candidate we want will be available and/or acquired by the Cubs due to many factors - availability, cost, other teams can be desperate/willing to overpay in prospect capital as well. Platoon type hitters are a dime a dozen at the TDL and cost very little cash and prospect capital to acquire.
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At the end of the day this is where I'm at on Turner. Turner in a vacuum, I don't love (Age, regressing power, etc). With the Cubs team context needs, I'm fine with adding him for around $7/$8m. We've (myself included) have absolutely bitched the past few seasons with how bad our bench has been, specifically the lack of a quality hitter. We can't have our cake and eat it too. As currently stands on paper, the bench is underwhelming. If Jed adds Turner to address that, I'm not going to complain as I see the value he would add.
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No, we're not only talking about PH (You answer part of it above). There's going to be what around 150-200 PAs against LHP (Starting for Busch against LHP and PH). Suzuki himself has missed an average of 33 games per season over his 3 year span. You have normal rest/days off for nagging injures to account for. With all that considered, there is an actual team need for a back up 1b on the roster, preferably RH. TT lined that out earlier in this thread. I mean sure, if we're playing MLB The Show "Get it done Jed". We trade for King - $7.75m, sign Robertson $10m, Turner - $8m. I think almost every thing you want above is attainable with Turner (SP & BP), but we both know it's not a realistic outcome for right now.
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Crowdsource projects 1/$8m for Turner FWIW
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Berti's projected value is coming from his defense/base running. I was specifically referring to wRC+ and who would you rather have taking the ABs in question, Berti vs Turner. Not kicking Berti off the roster. Turner is going to get what, around $7/$8m. Curious what you are doing with that money instead? This is all in the scenario of Bregman not signing with us of course.
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No one is expecting him to have an up year compared to last season. ZiPS projects a 112 wRC+, with Steamer at 106. They would be improving on Berti's 89 wRC+ projection.
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117 wRC+ last season. He doesn't have the power anymore, but he's going going to give you a good AB.
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Question for the group - has CC/Jed made any comments this off-season around if Busch will still be shielded against LHP? If they still plan on shielding him, then yea, put me in the group of being fine with a Turner signing to take 200 ABs at 1b and another 100-200 as a PH/DH for days off/injuries.
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Spring Training Moves/Transactions Thread
KCCub replied to Outshined_One's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Thinking of 2023? He was TOR and then Seattle last season right?
