KCCub
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I was on the "Give Canario a chance" train last season. But here's my negatives for him if he's your best bench bat - 83 wRC+ projected overall. In the days off/injury/platoon scenarios that we've beat to death, is he the guy you want getting 300 ABs? In the "got to have it" PH scenarios for Busch/PCA, is he the guy you want to PH knowing his quality of contact? Bases loaded, 1 out, tough lefty on the mound, need the ball put in play, etc He's not a 1b Why not roll with Turner/Canario/Berti/Kelly? You have 5 OFers then on the roster, and all positions covered with backups who can handle each position on the field. On top of that, you have a guy in JT who you feel ok with in the starting role when needed.
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While I agree with your overall math point, (and I don't want to open up a can of worms here in a JT thread which might be completely moot) but there's WPA (Win Probability Added) and WE (Win Expectancy) in play here and we could go down a rabbit hole on how much having JT in certain situations could lead to more real world wins vs not having JT available in said situations vs just looking at how his entire season plays out above replacement level player. We'll just call it that I have personal beliefs that having a good RH bench/platoon player, with how the roster is currently constructed, could lead to more real world wins vs his 1 fWAR projection
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The 5 posts above explain why holding onto $30m until the TDL is overkill but here's a few additional thoughts: 1. One or two additional wins in April of 2023 sure would have been nice right? Fixing holes now have a larger impact on how your season plays out. (That does not mean you have to have your full playoff roster set before the season and signing JT and/or adding a SP now does not mean the roster is complete) 2. We just don't know who will be available at the TDL. We can confidently say there will be a bunch of BP arms moved and the higher end ones will require premium prospect capital. Difference maker SP will be sought after by almost every team in playoff contention and there won't be enough available arms to satisfy every team's wants. Last season's TDL impact arms were what Flaherty and Kikuchi? And then you had a few innings eaters types in Montas, Civale, Lorenzon, etc. I'm sure I'm missing someone, but there's just not a guarantee the dream candidate we want will be available and/or acquired by the Cubs due to many factors - availability, cost, other teams can be desperate/willing to overpay in prospect capital as well. Platoon type hitters are a dime a dozen at the TDL and cost very little cash and prospect capital to acquire.
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At the end of the day this is where I'm at on Turner. Turner in a vacuum, I don't love (Age, regressing power, etc). With the Cubs team context needs, I'm fine with adding him for around $7/$8m. We've (myself included) have absolutely bitched the past few seasons with how bad our bench has been, specifically the lack of a quality hitter. We can't have our cake and eat it too. As currently stands on paper, the bench is underwhelming. If Jed adds Turner to address that, I'm not going to complain as I see the value he would add.
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No, we're not only talking about PH (You answer part of it above). There's going to be what around 150-200 PAs against LHP (Starting for Busch against LHP and PH). Suzuki himself has missed an average of 33 games per season over his 3 year span. You have normal rest/days off for nagging injures to account for. With all that considered, there is an actual team need for a back up 1b on the roster, preferably RH. TT lined that out earlier in this thread. I mean sure, if we're playing MLB The Show "Get it done Jed". We trade for King - $7.75m, sign Robertson $10m, Turner - $8m. I think almost every thing you want above is attainable with Turner (SP & BP), but we both know it's not a realistic outcome for right now.
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Crowdsource projects 1/$8m for Turner FWIW
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Berti's projected value is coming from his defense/base running. I was specifically referring to wRC+ and who would you rather have taking the ABs in question, Berti vs Turner. Not kicking Berti off the roster. Turner is going to get what, around $7/$8m. Curious what you are doing with that money instead? This is all in the scenario of Bregman not signing with us of course.
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No one is expecting him to have an up year compared to last season. ZiPS projects a 112 wRC+, with Steamer at 106. They would be improving on Berti's 89 wRC+ projection.
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117 wRC+ last season. He doesn't have the power anymore, but he's going going to give you a good AB.
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Question for the group - has CC/Jed made any comments this off-season around if Busch will still be shielded against LHP? If they still plan on shielding him, then yea, put me in the group of being fine with a Turner signing to take 200 ABs at 1b and another 100-200 as a PH/DH for days off/injuries.
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Spring Training Moves/Transactions Thread
KCCub replied to Outshined_One's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Thinking of 2023? He was TOR and then Seattle last season right? -
Don't love seeing this after day 1. On the plus side, it's Feb 10th so get these out of the way asap I guess.
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Before the Cubs converted Shaw to 3b based on organizational needs and quickest path to the majors, he was a SS destined to be a MLB 2b. Now that doesn’t mean he’ll fail at 3b (obviously the Cubs think he can handle it) but the ideal playing position for Shaw is 2b.
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That’s the ideal scenario that everyone wants, but with the reporting that’s been out there, it sounds like a forgone conclusion that Nico would be moved.
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The Cubs Are "One Team To Watch" In Dylan Cease Sweepstakes
KCCub replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Preller continues to ask for the moon - There’s a lot of competition for Cease. Preller isn’t going to get his initial asks, but this feels like a situation where one team will eventually fold and meet Preller in the middle with a prospect package that will “feel” like an overpay. Part of me thinks the upper end SP market in its entirety is just so unattainable right now, which is adding more reason for Jed and company’s pursuit of Bregman. “One in the hand is worth two in the bush” sort of thing. Idk -
I seen some chatter from the Sox local media (and heard from my Sox buddy) where they were in the 4 year range. They’ve didn’t want to go long term either and that’s why they’ve shifted to Arenado (3 years).
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This is true. ZiPS DC (Factors innings/playing time on current depth chart/team context) has him at 132 IP this season for the Yankees at 2 fWAR. Still the same underlying projected numbers, just more innings equaling more fWAR. At the end of the day, all Fangraphs projection systems have him projected just under a 4 ERA, which is Jamo like, but if we're looking for a game 2 playoff starter with our one major SP move, then I'm hoping we are aiming higher. He put up 159 IP in 2023 at 2 fWAR (4.64 ERA, 4.33 xERA, 4.36 xFIP). The lack of track record is really the concern here e.g. can he go 150+ IP 3 consecutive years and maintain his xERA of 3.78 that he had last season in only 85 IP or is it more likely to be around 4.5 when he's putting up that many IP.
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I'm sure 1908 is coming up with a better, more thought out post, but I think it comes down to we want to set our sights a little higher in terms of our one big SP move this season. In the scenario we are discussing (Nico being traded), that likely means Nico is moved for prospects instead of a SP. Then we turn around and move prospects for a higher end SP either before the season or more than likely at the deadline. Which is a lot of moving parts and one of the bear cases for signing Bregman.
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Here's the projections. If they trade Nico straight up for Schmidt without a prospect coming back, I would be disappointed. Idk, maybe Schmidt breaks out of those projections and finds his groove in his age 29, 30, 31 seasons. But if they end up around that, count me out on that being the return for Nico. Schmidt: Nico:
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Updated my calculations as I had fat fingered Nico's projected fWAR. Just curious of where you got that info? BTV is not well regarded btw if that's where.
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I done some very basic table top math below that I think will paint the picture why you are seeing that response. *I gave Schmidt an Arb3 value of $5m and Arb4 value of $7m, which I'm guessing will be on the low end and bring his surplus down. Also, I gave him 1.5 fWAR for year 3 since ZiPS only had the next two seasons projected (1.8 and 1.5). Hoerner - 7.7 (Projected ZiPS fWAR) x 9 ($9m per WAR) = $69.3m - $23.5m (Remaining contract) = $45.8m surplus Schmidt - 4.8 (Projected ZiPS fWAR 3 years) X 9 = $43.2m - $15.6m (Estimated remaining contract) = $27.7m surplus Again, very basic math to show surplus but this isn't the exact science.
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Agree with this in principle. We'll just call it a personal preference then. Specifically for a playoff run, I would rather have someone who can go on a Soler, Schwarber, Freeman, etc, offensive run and carry a team through a series. The more guys that have that ability, the better. Again, just a personal preference if the data doesn't support.
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SLG is more valuable in a playoff series, no? Hasn't that been a topic for years that stringing hits together is more difficult against playoff rotations/pitching vs having guys that provide more SLG? Forgive my ignorance if that's been proven inaccurate, but in theory, I would much rather have Bregman's bat for a playoff run than Hoerner's tools.
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Agree with all this and one thing I keep coming back to in my mind and ties into your point of challenges what we discuss on the board is Matt Chapman. Rewind back to the off-season before 2024 and Chapman was a consistent topic/debate on this board. "He's old and declining!" "His value is only defensive and will decline rapidly as he ages!" "His 2023 was propped up by a good first half!" "He had a 60 wRC+ from August to end of season!" The point is, we analyzed the horsefeathers out of Matt Chapman and most everyone came to the conclusion that he's not worth it with all factors considered. We couldn't have been more wrong as he put up a beautiful 5.5 fWAR season last season and received a nice 6/$150m extension going into his age 32 season opposed to the "value" we had hoped for at 3b.
