KCCub
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Don't love seeing this after day 1. On the plus side, it's Feb 10th so get these out of the way asap I guess.
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Before the Cubs converted Shaw to 3b based on organizational needs and quickest path to the majors, he was a SS destined to be a MLB 2b. Now that doesn’t mean he’ll fail at 3b (obviously the Cubs think he can handle it) but the ideal playing position for Shaw is 2b.
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That’s the ideal scenario that everyone wants, but with the reporting that’s been out there, it sounds like a forgone conclusion that Nico would be moved.
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The Cubs Are "One Team To Watch" In Dylan Cease Sweepstakes
KCCub replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Preller continues to ask for the moon - There’s a lot of competition for Cease. Preller isn’t going to get his initial asks, but this feels like a situation where one team will eventually fold and meet Preller in the middle with a prospect package that will “feel” like an overpay. Part of me thinks the upper end SP market in its entirety is just so unattainable right now, which is adding more reason for Jed and company’s pursuit of Bregman. “One in the hand is worth two in the bush” sort of thing. Idk -
I seen some chatter from the Sox local media (and heard from my Sox buddy) where they were in the 4 year range. They’ve didn’t want to go long term either and that’s why they’ve shifted to Arenado (3 years).
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This is true. ZiPS DC (Factors innings/playing time on current depth chart/team context) has him at 132 IP this season for the Yankees at 2 fWAR. Still the same underlying projected numbers, just more innings equaling more fWAR. At the end of the day, all Fangraphs projection systems have him projected just under a 4 ERA, which is Jamo like, but if we're looking for a game 2 playoff starter with our one major SP move, then I'm hoping we are aiming higher. He put up 159 IP in 2023 at 2 fWAR (4.64 ERA, 4.33 xERA, 4.36 xFIP). The lack of track record is really the concern here e.g. can he go 150+ IP 3 consecutive years and maintain his xERA of 3.78 that he had last season in only 85 IP or is it more likely to be around 4.5 when he's putting up that many IP.
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I'm sure 1908 is coming up with a better, more thought out post, but I think it comes down to we want to set our sights a little higher in terms of our one big SP move this season. In the scenario we are discussing (Nico being traded), that likely means Nico is moved for prospects instead of a SP. Then we turn around and move prospects for a higher end SP either before the season or more than likely at the deadline. Which is a lot of moving parts and one of the bear cases for signing Bregman.
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- alex bregman
- matt shaw
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Here's the projections. If they trade Nico straight up for Schmidt without a prospect coming back, I would be disappointed. Idk, maybe Schmidt breaks out of those projections and finds his groove in his age 29, 30, 31 seasons. But if they end up around that, count me out on that being the return for Nico. Schmidt: Nico:
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Updated my calculations as I had fat fingered Nico's projected fWAR. Just curious of where you got that info? BTV is not well regarded btw if that's where.
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I done some very basic table top math below that I think will paint the picture why you are seeing that response. *I gave Schmidt an Arb3 value of $5m and Arb4 value of $7m, which I'm guessing will be on the low end and bring his surplus down. Also, I gave him 1.5 fWAR for year 3 since ZiPS only had the next two seasons projected (1.8 and 1.5). Hoerner - 7.7 (Projected ZiPS fWAR) x 9 ($9m per WAR) = $69.3m - $23.5m (Remaining contract) = $45.8m surplus Schmidt - 4.8 (Projected ZiPS fWAR 3 years) X 9 = $43.2m - $15.6m (Estimated remaining contract) = $27.7m surplus Again, very basic math to show surplus but this isn't the exact science.
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Agree with this in principle. We'll just call it a personal preference then. Specifically for a playoff run, I would rather have someone who can go on a Soler, Schwarber, Freeman, etc, offensive run and carry a team through a series. The more guys that have that ability, the better. Again, just a personal preference if the data doesn't support.
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SLG is more valuable in a playoff series, no? Hasn't that been a topic for years that stringing hits together is more difficult against playoff rotations/pitching vs having guys that provide more SLG? Forgive my ignorance if that's been proven inaccurate, but in theory, I would much rather have Bregman's bat for a playoff run than Hoerner's tools.
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Agree with all this and one thing I keep coming back to in my mind and ties into your point of challenges what we discuss on the board is Matt Chapman. Rewind back to the off-season before 2024 and Chapman was a consistent topic/debate on this board. "He's old and declining!" "His value is only defensive and will decline rapidly as he ages!" "His 2023 was propped up by a good first half!" "He had a 60 wRC+ from August to end of season!" The point is, we analyzed the horsefeathers out of Matt Chapman and most everyone came to the conclusion that he's not worth it with all factors considered. We couldn't have been more wrong as he put up a beautiful 5.5 fWAR season last season and received a nice 6/$150m extension going into his age 32 season opposed to the "value" we had hoped for at 3b.
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Yep. I'm not necessarily pro signing Bregman, just wanted to play devil's advocate against the bear case scenarios and show that, hey, signing Bregman could actually be pretty cool and end up good for us.
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If ole Bob is correct, then all our convos are moot lol.
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Yep. They can absolutely add the "fluff" to his contract to incentivize a likely one year opt-out if that's what they ultimately want. It seems like if Bregman happens, trading Nico for prospects is the likely path. I know many don't like that path, and I'm not sure I do either, but that is a path that can lead to Bregman's bat (This matters for playoffs more than anything when arguing Nico vs Bregman's value being a wash over a full season), Shaw playing 2b, and using prospects at the TDL to land that #1 or #2 playoff starter we need.
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Red Sox could use a 2b. They do have Campbell though, who would be similar to Shaw. I just don’t understand why they won’t sign Bregman themselves instead of trying to make Arenado work.
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Yankees keep coming to mind for me as well. As you said, Schmidt, Gil, etc.
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I would need to see the contract language/opt outs before saying how likely it is either way. If it's heavily incentivized to persuade a year 1 opt out (front loaded or has a large buyout after year one, etc), he's likely opting out. We just don't know. Jed loves to get creative and push $$$ to the following year via buyouts. If it's a straightforward 4 year deal with non incentivized opt outs, yea I agree he's more likely to opt in.
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Devil's advocate again - You sign Tucker first and then worry about dumping salary/talent. And again, Tucker actually has to sign with us, which the odds are not in our favor here. If our big 2026 conundrum is signing Tucker to a 12 year deal but then having to trade one of Suzuki/Hoerner/Taillon/etc to free up salary, absolutely sign me up. On Bregman, we talk about him like he's a dying dog. He put up 4.1 fWAR last season, which would have been what, second on the team? He's projected for 4 fWAR again. You have to put some faith in Jed and crew here that they have a plan, and a backup plan, for each one of these scenarios. If they think they can structure a deal with Bregman that incentivizes him to opt out after year 1, you have to think that's the likely outcome. (Bellinger was a completely different risk) The last part of your point is where my concern resides. How does signing Bregman impact our ability to land a TORP at the deadline. I'm in, and have always been in, the camp that a TORP needs to be priority one for a playoff push. With how Jed and crew talked all off-season about landing impact SP, I would think they have a plan for if they do sign Bregman, to still be able to add a guy you feel good about starting in the playoffs.
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- alex bregman
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While I agree with all this, I'm going to play devil's advocate here. It really only becomes an issue if two things happen: 1. Bregman has a subpar year and doesn't opt out. (Bull case here is he puts up his 4.5 fWAR and goes to market again, $30m is freed plus a spot for Shaw has been opened.) 2. Tucker signs with us. (I believe no matter what the financial situation is going into next season, you put your best offer on the table for Tucker. If he signs it and Bregman is opted in, then you deal with the consequences and make a Bellinger like trade to move salary.)
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It’s mainly a salary dump and will depend on if the Cardinals chip in any cash or not. He’s owed 3/$52m and projected for 3.1 fWAR (ZiPS) this season. The return won’t be a lot, but it won’t be nothing either
