I'm not the full blown analytics guy but I agree with you Re: managers DO have impact but that it's really difficult to calculate or attribute how much. If it were not, we'd have WAR for managers you could bet but too many unknowns about what and how a manager might contribute more so than another, etc.
So - what we have - and it happens here all the time, one of us - hell sometimes me....will criticize a move the manager makes..heck I guarantee I'll come on here and criticize something Counsel does. Then inevitably you'll have the responses...."baseball is random...these are 50/50 decisions, coin flips, they know things we don't", etc. you all know the stock responses.
While I get it and to some degree agree with the premise, I also think the idea that the impact managers is insignificant and that with very few exceptions you can fit one in with another and you're not going to have much variance to be convenient and off base.
If you want to argue that in this specific case that Counsel for Rossi has very little impact in a vacuum and that it's not upgrade, I'd disagree...I'd understand the take...but again, I'd disagree.