Matthew Trueblood

How overstuffed are the Cubs with fringy big-leaguers? So much so that, by my rough and very unofficial count, they have a whopping 17 candidates for non-tender at the end of this week. That's especially crazy, given that they only have a dozen arbitration-eligible players, and the principal reason why teams cut players at the non-tender deadline is generally to save money on players eligible for arbitration but no longer producing at a rate commensurate with their expected pay. Because the Cubs badly need to upgrade at the top of their roster (1-2 spots), the bottom of it (2-3 spots), and the apron just beyond the edge of the 26-man roster, where players still on the 40-man work in the minors or sit on the injured list (3-4 spots), however, the team has much more of a roster crunch than they do a money crunch. Account for the need to add Owen Caissie and (in all likelihood) one other from a group of fringe prospects to the 40-man by Tuesday evening to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft next month, and the team needs to create about eight new openings to fill with better players going into 2025. That doesn't all have to happen at once, this week. It can be done via trades later in the winter, in some measure. However, because of this pressure, the team really should prepare to cut anywhere from five to 10 players this week. Obviously, not everyone is a candidate to be cut, even among the guys who don't have guaranteed contracts. There's no chance the Cubs non-tender Miguel Amaya, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Ben Brown, or Kevin Alcántara. Nor, in my opinion, should they even consider cutting ties with any of the following: Hayden Wesneski, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Luke Little, Tyson Miller, or Nate Pearson. Even after taking those names off the board, though, the list of players who do make sense to remove—because of their expected salaries, the lack of minor-league options, or a sheer dearth of upside and trade value—is very long. Here it is, ranked from the players who most need to go to those who make at least a modicum of sense to keep. 1. Adbert Alzolay, RHP This one sucks, but should also be the easiest call in the bunch. The Cubs are in no position to sit around for a year with Alzolay taking up a roster spot (until he can be placed on the 60-day injured list in the spring) and earning over $2 million. Maybe the two sides would be interested in a reunion, after a non-tender, with Alzolay getting a two-year minor-league deal but a solid payday if and when he can reclaim a roster spot after Tommy John surgery. Short of that, though, it's time to say goodbye to the profoundly lovable but unreliable righty. 2. Nick Madrigal, 2B/3B Let us not forget: for a moment there, Madrigal made himself a plus defensive third baseman in 2023. That was impressive; I don't doubt his makeup. He also has one great skill, in the ability to put the ball in play relentlessly. Alas, he's proved conclusively that he can't make contact of sufficient quality to make that skill matter, especially because he also can't stay on the field. It would be malpractice to keep him around at a seven-figure salary for another low-ceiling season. 3. Keegan Thompson, RHP Though beloved for some occasionally glimpsable upside in certain corners, Thompson has been consistently inconsistent for years. He walks too many and strikes out too few, and the pitch mix is aggressively generic. He's also out of minor-league options, so he can no longer be the up-and-down last arm in the pen. 4. Caleb Kilian, RHP If success is waiting for this guy somewhere, it's time to let him seek it. That success will not come in Chicago. They've tried a lot of things, and so has he, and none of it has really worked. He, too, is out of options. If it weren't for a tiny wisp of a hope that he holds some trade value for a team who loves a certain kind of reclamation project, he'd be higher on this list. 5. Brennen Davis, OF Like most of the players above, Davis has shown great makeup and endeared himself to many Cubs fans over the last handful of years, despite a failure to produce anything on the field. The time for holding onto players who fall into that category is over. Davis is a tragic story, an obviously talented player repeatedly foiled by major injury issues. Maybe 2025 will be the year he stays healthy, but the Cubs should clear the roster spot, bet on upside somewhere else, and let Davis take his chances in some new scenery. 6. Patrick Wisdom, 3B/1B/DH As I wrote earlier this fall, Wisdom will be a slightly sad departure, because he's a beloved clubhouse presence and there was good reason to hope he would thrive in the role they carved out for him this past season. Alas, he turns out to be the kind of high-strikeout slugger who needs regular reps to find his rhythm and play to his potential, and he's neither a sufficiently high-ceiling bat nor an adequate defensive third baseman to merit regular playing time for the playoff-hopeful 2025 Cubs. Cutting ties with him will save the team just over $2 million to reallocate elsewhere, too. 7. Rob Zastryzny, LHP Just claimed two weeks ago from Milwaukee, Zastryzny is exactly the kind of lefty reliever you scoop up just to see what happens. If nothing does, a fortnight later, you waive them again and see whether they get claimed. Zastryzny could elect free agency even if he clears, though, so waiving him and non-tendering him come to the same thing. 8. Ethan Roberts, RHP Briefly a great story at the start of 2022, Roberts quickly became a sad story about how not everyone comes back from Tommy John surgery on time, or at anywhere near full strength. Roberts is diminutive, and when a guy like that comes back from a major injury with diminished velocity, it's not a good idea to bet on it coming back. His sweeper is impressive and fun, but it doesn't make him an actually helpful pitcher. 9. Trey Wingenter, RHP He throws very hard, and the overall stuff profile can be nasty. He's got the body type and the delivery rudiments to become one of the Cubs' beloved weird arm angle guys. There's some reason to hold out hope for him, but injuries have derailed his initial career trajectory, and he's out of options, so holding onto him might end up meaning cutting ties six weeks into the season, anyway. 10. Julian Merryweather, RHP The two injuries that made Merryweather unimpressive even when he was available in 2024 are a huge red flag, for a player whose career was headed toward injury-related ruin before his sunshine season of 2023. He really lost velocity, relative to the way he overpowered hitters last year. There is, again, plenty to like, and he has great makeup, but he's out of options and he seems to require careful handling to stay healthy and effective. That's a bad combination, especially for a pitcher now experienced enough to make a little bit of real money if they retain him and tender him a contract. 11. Gavin Hollowell, RHP Boy, does Hollowell offer a lot of funk. He's precisely the kind of dice-roll the Cubs like to take in the bullpen, and he still can be sent to Triple-A Iowa whenever he's not needed. On the other hand, he's very much the kind of pitcher you can readily find on the waiver wire every month or so. You hold onto him while the cost is minimal, but one type of cost that has to be accounted for is the opportunity cost of rostering him instead of seeking out more upside. 12. Mike Tauchman, OF We know how much Craig Counsell loves Tauchman—so much so that he sat him down and guaranteed him a role on the team at the beginning of spring training. By and large, the aging outfielder rewarded that faith, continuing to get on base and play non-damaging defense. However, his power continues to fade, and looked especially absent after he returned from a groin injury in the summer. He's not able to be optioned to the minors, he doesn't have durability to recommend him, and in his mid-30s, he seems very unlikely to recover lost power or athleticism. That doesn't make him useless, but the team might want to aim higher for what is effectively their 10th regular's spot. 13. Matt Mervis, 1B With Cody Bellinger back in the fold (along with Michael Busch, and factoring in Caissie as a left-handed corner bat even though he won't be playing first base next year), Mervis has relatively little utility. He's still only due the league-minimum, and then only while in the majors—but it's hard to imagine a good scenario in which he spends any significant time in the majors, so holding onto him would be mostly about inertia. That he can be optioned to Iowa is the best argument for retaining him. 14. Miles Mastrobuoni, UTIL To have any real value with as little power as Mastrobuoni has, you have to control the strike zone at an elite level, or make exceptional use of your speed, or truly excel at a high-value defensive position. Mastrobuoni just doesn't check any of those boxes. He's not a terrible utility player, but it doesn't make sense to keep him around when you have as many good infield prospects as the Cubs do. 15. Alexander Canario, OF Because he's shown elite bat speed, Canario probably has too much trade value to cut outright. He's demonstrated contact issues so profound that a future as a big-league regular seems unlikely, but he's not without some athleticism, and that bat speed means hig power on contact. He's out of options, though, and he doesn't profile as a very helpful bench piece right now. The Cubs should be shopping him aggressively, as soon as this week. 16. Michael Arias, RHP The stuff Arias is capable of really is exciting. He'd be a really good feather to put in the cap of the player-development team, turning a formerly released infielder into a big-league arm. That's the dream. The unexciting, rude awakening is that he walked 48 of the 286 batters he faced last year. If they hold onto him all winter, they're likely to end up waiving him in April and feeling bashful about the wasted time. 17. Luis Vázquez, SS He's not a much better player than Mastrobuoni, but Vázquez has a better glove at short and one more year of optionability left. He's almost not in the way enough to cut, especially given that the team doesn't have to (and won't) add James Triantos or Matt Shaw to the 40-man this year. Early in the season, he can be the insurance policy kept in Iowa in case of injury, without being a hurdle to any other major moves. The Cubs have some tough decisions ahead. It's unlikely they'll be as proactive as I believe they should be, but if it were me, eight or more of the names above would be off the roster by Saturday. That way, the team could move forward with the aggressive and creative winter that should be their focus.

Jed Hoyer made clear last week that he believes strongly in Isaac Paredes, despite the false start Paredes suffered upon his arrival in a trade with the Rays back in July. After all, the two-time All-Star stabilized nicely after that; he's still quite young; and the weather at Wrigley was crazy last summer. (Did you hear about this? Crazy. No one understands it.) Thus, while Hoyer was clear about his willingness to get "creative" this winter, he didn't sound like a man ready to splash big money around to upgrade his infield. Upgrade it he must, though, because the Cubs are getting old at shortstop, and they need better balance and depth at second and third base. Paredes is worth believing in, to some extent, but his splits are as wide as Lake Shore Drive. For his career: vs. RHP: .218/.322/.411 vs. LHP: .274/.366/.456 Meanwhile. Nico Hoerner is coming off a season in which he had to finish with an .870 OPS in September just to drag his seasonal OPS up to .708. He also had surgery on his forearm after the season. Oh, and that .708 OPS is virtually identical to his career mark against right-handed pitchers. There's a clear role available here. The Cubs need a left-handed hitter who can play solid defense at second and/or third base, and they need it to be someone considerably better than Miles Mastrobuoni, this time. As it happens, there's just such a player available this winter, and he's one of the youngest free agents on the market, too. Hyeseong Kim—not to be confused with Ha-Seong Kim, to whom he is not related, although the two were once the double-play combo for the same team in the Korean Baseball Organization—won't turn 26 until late January, but he's going to be posted this winter by the Kiwoom Heroes, his current KBO team. Kim is a lefty batter and a lithe, speedy contact hitter, who batted .326/.383/.458 last season—and .335/.396/.446 in 2023. He's played mostly at second base in the KBO, with some time spent at shortstop and just a smattering of reps at third, but he could acquit himself at the hot corner as needed. He's unlikely to hit for much power, but very likely to get on base at a good rate. Since 2021, he's run an OBP north of .370 every year, and while the KBO's offensive climate is warmer than MLB's (with an aggregate average OBP for the league just over .340 for that four-year period), it can't explain away Kim's skills. He doesn't strike out much, even by the standards of the league. He draws plenty of walks, even by the standards of the league. He has 135 stolen bases and has been caught just 20 times in the last four seasons. Again, he's still only turning 26, so that speed is unlikely to disappear any time soon. Early projections have Kim coming over on a three- or four-year deal worth around $30 million, which would be strikingly similar to the pact Ha-Seong Kim signed with the Padres four years ago. At that price, and even at a 20% markup from that price, he'd be a steal. While Hoyer and company would have to sell him on the concept of playing nearly every day in a utility role (not unlike the one his former teammate took on in San Diego) rather than going elsewhere to be a traditional everyday player, it would be a great fit for both sides. Kim probably needs some protection from left-handed pitchers, and the Cubs need better lineup depth, especially against righties. It looks increasingly unlikely that the Cubs will bring in a player who rivals Seiya Suzuki as the best hitter in their lineup this offseason. If that turns out to be true, they badly need to bolster the batting order from the other end. Their bench and their lesser bats were often insufficient in 2024. Kim would be a salve for that ailment. He's far from the only solution, and in a world in which the team was ready to spend more aggressively, he probably wouldn't be the best one, but in this plane of existence, he might be the right addition.

Everything came apart for Justin Verlander in 2024. It was a sad thing to watch, for the 41-year-old future Hall of Famer. He has a strong argument for being the best pitcher of his generation. It wasn't as if the fire was entirely out, but it sure looked to be down to glowing embers. Verlander posted a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts, giving up 15 home runs in barely 90 innings, and he didn't even make the Astros' playoff roster. That said, he's still Justin Verlander. His fastball doesn't have the extra yard on it anymore, but he sat 92-95 and touched 97 with it, and it still has as much carry as any heater in the league. He still showed the ability to throw strikes. He just didn't miss bats the way he always has before—the way he needs to, at this point, to beat anybody. His strikeout rate fell below 20%. He looked very old. Now, Verlander is a free agent, and the Cubs are certainly one possible destination. In the past, they were on the short list of destinations he talked about, outside of the Tigers organization that brought him into professional baseball, and Houston, where he revived his career the first time. His price tag, which was genuinely astronomical the last time he hit free agency, should be lower, and any team materially more serious about contending in 2025 than the Cubs are isn't going to need Verlander. Is now the right time for the two sides to get together, at last? To answer that, we have to know how much the Cubs are willing to spend on what would be a part-time rotation role. With a pitcher like Verlander, at this stage of his career, you have to build the expectation of some time spent on the injured list into your projection. Speaking of pitchers like Verlander, though, we also have to consider alternatives, and there are two others like Verlander who deserve a close look. Max Scherzer is a year and a half Verlander's junior, but at times over the last few years, he's looked every bit as much like burnt toast. Even more curtailed by injury than Verlander's, he might have had an even more frustrating campaign. When he was actually on the mound, though, he proved much more effective. In nine starts, he maintained an ERA south of 4.00. His fastball only sits around 92 and touches no higher than 95, but velocity was never his chief weapon, as it could sometimes be for Verlander. Scherzer's slider and curveball both continue to miss bats at an impressive and valuable rate. He can still punch hitters out, because he still has these two theoretically plus secondary weapons. For Verlander, while the trace elements of his old self are there, the questions about viability and performance loom large. For Scherzer, it's a simpler (but not easier) test: Is he healthy? Can he stay healthy for even half a season's worth of work, and is it possible to time that healthy window such that it provides maximal impact on the pursuit of a championship? If so, he's still a solid starter who can dominate in short bursts and beat even good lineups, even if he's more vulnerable to the long ball than he used to be. If not, he'd be a waste of money and a roster spot. Both Verlander and Scherzer are headed for Cooperstown, whenever their careers wind down. Charlie Morton is a step shy of them. (Maybe two steps shy, even.) He just turned 41 this week, and for the last few years, he's shown heavy preference for Atlanta and the Rays, two teams close to his offseason home. Nor is there any particular reason either of those teams should cease to want him, just yet. He pitched 165 innings across 30 starts in 2024, and although his numbers showed significant decline, he was still useful. Morton's stuff is fading, if only slightly. His fastball still sits 94 and gets up to 97, but it's lost a little carry. His cutter isn't as biting. He had an uninspiring 4.19 ERA last year; his lowest strikeout rate since 2015; and his highest opponent home-run rate since 2010. For different reasons, though, neither Atlanta nor Tampa looks much disposed—or at least able—to bring Morton back this winter. It would be a good time for the Cubs to wade in and at least ask about his willingness to spend a twilight season on the North Side. Which of these three is most desirable depends on factors we just can't know right now. It hinges on how much scouts believe Verlander can move past whatever diminution afflicted him last year; whether or not Scherzer is capable of getting healthy and staying that way; and what price each player is placing on themselves as they hit the market. It makes nothing but sense, though, for the team to at least explore each possibility. They need a frontline starter, but they also need some help with depth, and these three deliver upside, veteran savvy, and a certain amount of safety, too. If nothing else, signing one of them should raise the floor of the possible outcome space for the Cubs heading into next season.

Though his season was hollowed out in the middle by a month lost to arm trouble, Javier Assad entered mid-August with things going swimmingly. Despite walking 10.5% of opposing batters and not striking out even a league-average number of them, he kept working out of trouble. Through 21 starts and 103 innings, he had a 3.24 ERA, and the Cubs were 12-9 when he took the ball. Then, he voluntarily derailed it all. Assad moved over from the middle of the pitching rubber to the far first-base edge, in a semi-gradual shift over the course of two starts. Here he is in a start against the Brewers, in early May: Assad in May.mp4 It was a conscious choice, aimed at opening up new angles for his attack on opposing hitters. Here's a pitch he threw after making the change, in August, for comparison: Assad in August.mp4 And here's the difference, in data form: He has a very deep arsenal, but not all of his pitches were working well from the release point he reached while pitching from the arm side of the rubber. His primary fastball, a sinker, had more room to run in on right-handed batters without getting obviously clear of home plate once he slid over. He could (and did) even try to aim that sinker off the outside corner and run it back, seeking to freeze hitters on that pitch and to play his four-seamer off of it for whiffs. With a more direct line to the plate, he clearly felt more empowered to throw his curveball, and he also ratcheted up usage of his sweeper, on the theory that once he had righties looking for the outside sinker, he could throw that sweeper and induce fruitless chases. There were lots of use cases, in theory, for the move to a new home on the rubber. Quickly, though, it became clear that it was actually a bad idea—maybe worse than bad. From Aug. 14 through the end of the season, Assad's ERA was 5.22. He got a bit less lucky, perhaps, because he did also substantially increase his ground-ball rate, but he got hit much, much harder, especially when hitters did elevate the ball. His migration yielded more strikes, but too many of them were in (or near) the middle of the zone, and opponents punished him for it. Even Stuff+ and Location+ testify to the folly of the lane change. He dipped from an 86 in Stuff and 100 in Location before the move to 83 and 98. It's understandable that, despite surface-level success, Assad and the Cubs went looking for better angles and better answers late in 2024. In fact, since too many players, organizations, and people wait until they're forced into a change before making one, we should applaud the proactivity of this move. It was worth a shot. Whether it will remain laudable, though, depends heavily on a simple question: Did they learn their lesson? Assad will never be the guy with plus stuff. He's unlikely to strike out 25% of opposing batters, even if he moves back to the bullpen. It's not how his game works. Nor is he a precision arm, in terms of location. However, he can be extremely effective at times. The key variable is the very thing Assad sacrificed by sliding over on the rubber in 2024: deception, and the tough angles that beget mishits. If he goes back to pitching where he was for the majority of 2024, Assad can still be a solid third or fourth starting pitcher. Working away at the corners will work better, and the batted balls he induces will be less dangerous, if he can get back to giving hitters those tough looks. They picked the ball up too early and too well against him in the late going. It fueled a derailment that plenty of analysts were waiting to see, from a pitcher they all swore would fall off the tightrope soon. While his poor stats tickled the confirmation bias region of the brains of many fans, though, they were at least as illusory as his great numbers prior thereto. When he's himself—the ball coming out of his hand well, in his usual spot on the mound, mentally strong and confident—Assad can be that solid mid-rotation starter. He just needs to walk back the small changes he made late in 2024. They weren't misbegotten, but they were failures, and it's important not to repeat the foible under what should be harsher demands of a team right in the thick of a postseason race.

If the team's front office is serious about contending, the Cubs will be major players for Max Fried, Roki Sasaki, and any number of second-tier pitchers who will be available via trade and free agency this winter. It's a clear need, and they have plenty of resources to allocate to that part of the roster. However, there are also valuable opportunities out there for teams this month, in the forms of the 500-plus players who became minor-league free agents five days after the end of the World Series. These are players who have completed at least six professional seasons, or who have been previously outrighted, and who end the season in the minors but off the 40-man roster of the organization to whom they then belong. It's not a glamorous path to free agency, and every pitcher who becomes available this way comes with noticeable warts. However, that doesn't mean they don't have talent, or that they can't emerge as solid contributors. Last week, I wrote about why the Cubs should consider two outfielders who could be the heirs to the legacy of Rafael Ortega, a minor-league free agent after 2020 who blossomed for the Cubs (however briefly, and ultimately inconsequentially) in 2021 and 2022. Today, let's turn our attention to the pitching sector of the same market. With players in this bracket, there's no expectation of big money being paid out. If a player is drawing interest from multiple clubs, it still tends to be tepid enough to avoid any bidding wars stretching even to $1 million. Usually, the winning inducement in such cases will be a slightly better incentive package, giving the player a bit more earning power if they have an unexpected breakout. Sometimes, getting a deal done can require a team to commit a 40-man roster spot to the player in question, but even that is very rare. By and large, these are the guys you sign to minor-league deals, with invites to big-league spring training and an opt-out date that works for both sides. They're the depth charges who can allow a team to act decisively when an opportunity or an urgent need arises, especially in the bullpen, before the trade market has had time to take shape. The Cubs could have used a couple of arms like the following half-dozen last year, when a rocky first few months from their relief corps thwarted their competitive vision.

Don't listen to panic over the progress of prospects Zyhir Hope or Jackson Ferris with the Dodgers: the Cubs made out gorgeously in last winter's trade sending those two West in exchange for Michael Busch and Yency Almonte. Admittedly, it would have felt much better if Almonte had stayed healthy and stabilized the bullpen during its early turmoil, but Busch is more than enough to call the deal a win-win exchange. His rookie season was sensational, and although his ceiling is certainly shy of superstardom, he was a championship-caliber piece in 2024. There's cause to hope he can do the same thing in 2025. However, there are also valid cases being made in some quarters for moving Busch over to second base, or even for trading him. The former move would have to come as part of a double move in which the team also landed a slugging star like Teoscar Hernández, Anthony Santander, or Pete Alonso, with either the new player or Cody Bellinger taking over at first base and the overall lineup balance shifting slightly toward offense and away from defense. The latter would have to be part of a big move, bringing back either a high-level starting pitcher or a slugger who could directly replace Busch, probably with higher production but less team control. (Think a Mariners starting pitcher, or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from the Blue Jays.) One player could make sense as an addition to this roster, though, while and before all of that plays out. Carlos Santana, the longtime Cleveland great who has become a journeyman in the late going of his career, is a switch-hitter who hits better against left-handed pitching. He's one of the best defensive first basemen in the game, even as he nears 40 years of age. He gives his teams some of the most consistently excellent at-bats in the game, and though he runs hot and cold, you can generally count on him to provide plus on-base skills and occasional power. He is also one of the most respected and beloved players in baseball. Putting him in the clubhouse has its own value, beyond the field. Santana would be a perfect opening salvo for this Cubs offseason. Some would read it as a resignation to too low-ceiling a winter plan, but it would be the opposite. Santana can act as a platoon partner for Busch. He can be a solid DH, in case of injury or as part of platoons and rotations at various spots. Signing him would also give the team increased leverage in all kinds of other conversations this winter. The trick here would be selling Santana on the fact that he'd get substantial playing time, because he can read Roster Resource just like the rest of us, and with Busch, Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki all in their places for next year, there's not an obvious path to 600 plate appearances for him. While everyone in it is eager to tell you how good a clubhouse the Cubs have had the last two seasons, it seems to me that an ingredient or two have been missing from that group. Santana, with his professionalism and his gregariousness, could be the right addition to the mix. No matter what else the team did this winter, he would be a valuable addition. The only time he's ever been to the World Series, his team blew a 3-1 lead and lost, but maybe Santana would now be open to joining the club he couldn't beat, in search of a ring that would give his career a pleasing sense of completeness. At the very least, the Cubs should be checking in with him about it.

At this week's General Manager Meetings, one of the hot topics was the possibility of a trade that would send one or more of the Chicago Cubs' bevy of solid position-player prospects to the Seattle Mariners, in exchange for one of the Mariners' very impressive collection of young starting pitchers under medium- to long-term team control. It was news on the order of dog bites rawhide thrown to them in the yard, rather even than dog bites man, because this is the most obvious potential trade fit in the league right now. The Cubs and Mariners are each trying to get back over the hump and into the playoffs, and each team has some very good things going for them. Each also faces some significant constraints, and the match of their respective surpluses and shortfalls does not require a baseball brain surgeon to spot. Fans have discussed the possibility of the two teams getting together on a major deal for a year or more, and nothing that has happened during that time has made the realization of that possibility any less likely. That doesn't mean it'll actually happen, though. When two teams find themselves in such an open-field confrontation, they tend to circle each other and look for exit strategies, so they don't end up feeling forced into something. Jerry Dipoto loves a trade, but Jed Hoyer is a very conservative deal-maker. The two think about the game pretty differently, but would have to find a place where the way they each value some of their key players intersects or overlaps. That's not as easy as it is to simply identify two teams as natural trade partners. Nonetheless, let's play this out a little bit. To really understand how realistic (and how desirable) a swap of a young Cubs hitter or two for a Mariners hurler is, we should get to know all parties involved a bit better. Specifically, we should arrive at a ranking—a pref list, to borrow the industry argot—of the five Seattle starters as Cubs targets, and maybe of the five or six Cubs prospects most likely to be involved in a deal, too.

In separate reports coming from the General Managers Meetings in San Antonio this week, both Willy Adames and Alex Bregman expressed a willingness to move off the positions that have defined their careers to this point. In a piece at The Athletic by Katie Woo and Will Sammon: And directly from Bregman's agent, Scott Boras, in a piece by USA Today's Bob Nightengale: Obviously, each of these comes with a caveat for the Cubs. In Adames's case, it's that preference to stay at short, and the obvious follow-up questions, given the wording Sammon and Woo chose: What counts as a strong offer? Does Adames consider the Cubs to be in a position to win? It's hard to imagine that Adames will get anything short of $150 million over six years, and his market could go even higher than Dansby Swanson's, depending on how the winter unfolds. He probably wouldn't relish playing alongside Swanson for both less money per year and fewer years, given his track record, so the Cubs would probably have to either pay him $26 million per season or go to seven years to bring him in as a second baseman. The latter feels a bit too desperate, but giving Adames $160 million over six years isn't unthinkable, by any means. It's pretty much the deal Javier Báez got, and although Adames had a backslide as a defender in 2024 and doesn't profile at short for long the way Báez did, he's a much more well-rounded hitter, likely to age considerably better. As to the second question, I don't think the Cubs would have an especially tough sell job. Drop Adames's 25-homer power into the heart of their lineup, probably batting between Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch, and the team would be pretty potent. Adames would also be a superb defender at the keystone, maintaining the team's stout infield phalanx. Crucially, too, he loved Craig Counsell during their time together in Milwaukee, and Counsell knows the value Adames would bring as a leader with the perfect mix of a fierce desire to win and a friendly, consistent disposition. Swanson gets a lot of plaudits for his off-field value, and perhaps they're deserved. One thing is for sure: Adames blows even Swanson out of the water when it comes to uplifting teammates and engaging in the day-to-day work of winning. For Bregman, the caveat is that all the talk around him seems to lead back to the Astros. As I wrote earlier this week, the Astros face a slight crunch, and their GM is on the record saying they "might need to get creative" with payroll; that doesn't sound like a man ready to drop $130 million into the lap of a 31-year-old. Maybe Dana Brown meant only that he's so focused on bringing back Bregman that he knows he'll have to make creative, even painful cuts elsewhere. At any rate, though, Bregman and the Astros continue to consider a reunion. If one doesn't happen, though, Bregman should be a Cub. He finished sixth in voting for the distinguished Fielding Bible Award at third base this year, and continues to get better at defending the line there. In profile and person, though, he's not really built for the position. His arm strength is far below average for the hot corner, though it would be more than adequate at second. The reason he can't throw as hard as many other third basemen is pretty simple: he's smaller than they are. His strongest throws on record nearly all involve a sharply hit ball and a careful buildup of momentum into a full-body throw across the diamond, too. He would benefit hugely from getting to use his feet and his quick hands a bit more and his raw arm strength a bit less. Were it not for José Altuve, he almost certainly would have stayed at second when he came up to the majors. If he's no longer teammates with a Hall of Famer at that spot, he should claim it. In that piece from early this week, I proposed trading Isaac Paredes to Houston to make way for Bregman. If that's not even necessary, though, bringing in the All-Star makes even more sense. Nor is it obviously necessary that the team trade Nico Hoerner to facilitate bringing in either Bregman or Adames. Having Hoerner as a backup and rotational piece in support of all three of Paredes, Swanson and the newcomer could be especially valuable. It would be a better way to utilize his too-light bat, his speed, and his glove than playing him every day at second base and batting him high in the order, as the team has so often done over the last few seasons. Hoerner might balk at that, of course, and if he did, the team could simply trade him, but Bregman and Adames are each so much better—as players, in a vacuum, but especially as fits for the Cubs' needs—that if either is open to playing second base for Chicago, they need to be willing to deprioritize Hoerner to make it happen, even at substantial financial cost.

Just after the end of the MLB season, players who ended the season off the 40-man roster and who have been in pro baseball for at least six years can elect free agency. We saw the Cubs go through this process on Monday, when they allowed several players to become free agents, although they subsequently re-signed a handful of them, too. This happens every November, and almost every November, a couple of players who reach free agency through these means end up surfacing with big-league clubs and having solid seasons or careers. The Brewers got Blake Perkins this way late in 2022, for instance. Based on process-oriented and batted-ball data from Triple-A, I see two players who might be especially worthy of targeting for teams this fall. Each is a left-handed batter and outfielder in the second half of his 20s, and each was briefly considered to have genuine upside very early in their pro careers. None of that has materialized for them yet, but the signs they each showed at Triple-A this year should have the Cubs considering them as alternatives to Mike Tauchman, whom they got off the scrapheap in Jan. 2023 but who is now in line to make over $2 million via arbitration and (at 35 years old) almost certainly has his best baseball behind him. Carlos Cortes, Released by Mets Marginally famous when first drafted because he would play the infield as a right-handed thrower and the outfield as a left-handed one, Cortes quickly faded into relative obscurity. It's probably a bit too generous to blame the lost minor-league season in 2020 for his inability to turn the corner as a prospect, but in examining his progress through the system, that does feel like the moment when he had an opportunity to take a leap forward. Instead, he's plodded up the ladder, showing insufficient hands to stick on the field (so long, right-handed throwing) and insufficient speed to play center field. At just 5-foot-7, he cuts a very unlikely figure for the big leagues, especially for someone who won't have speed in their game, so he's dropped below the radar. Over the past two seasons, though, he's shown real promise with the Mets' Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse. In 2024, he batted a seemingly forgettable .246/.330/.456, but that came with 16 home runs in just 321 plate appearances. More telling than those numbers, anyway, are some of the ones under the hood for the 27-year-old. PA Swing% Chase% ZSw-Chase InZoneWhiff% PHiA/SW 100+/Sw LandAng LaunchAng LowHit% MedHit% HighHit% 321 44.0% 23.9% 43.1% 16.8% 4.8% 9.6% 8.4 15.8 29.0% 33.5% 36.6% ExitVel 10thExitVel 90thExitVel Hit95+% Well Hit LA Sweet Spot EV BABIP Barrel% FBDst xWOBA wOBA SAEV 90.9 76.6 104.7 39.2% 15.7 93.9 .255 17.6% 319.4 .317 .338 91.5 You need not know what each and every one of these numbers means to get a sense of the player they're describing. Cortes makes good swing decisions; hits the ball fairly hard; elevates and pulls it often enough to get to his power; and doesn't get beaten in the strike zone much. It's unlikely he'd hit for the same type of over-the-fence power in the majors, but both his average launch angle on well-hit balls and his average exit velocity on balls in the launch-angle sweet spot top the MLB average. His inability to play center field would hurt his utility to many organizations, but the Cubs have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cody Bellinger, and Kevin Alcántara around. They can afford to swap out Tauchman for a player like Cortes, if they believe in his bat. The data says they should, and he's more substantial than his vitals might suggest. Cal Mitchell, Releaed by Padres It's a shame this second stop for the former top Pirates prospect didn't work out. Mitchell is a San DIego native, and he hit very well in El Paso. The Padres just happened to get a shocking rookie breakout from Jackson Merrill and an unexpected star turn from Jurickson Profar, obviating any long-term experiments or even injury stopgaps that might have allowed the local kid to make good. Mitchell is still just 25, though he'll turn 26 during spring training. On the way up the Pittsburgh chain, the knock on him was a lack of power, which came partially from the very thing that drew so many scouts to him when he was still a teenager: his sweet swing. As good as Mitchell looked up there, he too often hit his best balls on low trajectories, and he couldn't cover the top third of the strike zone. His strikeout rates got gory, and he never got the ball off the ground enough to tap into the power suggested by his 220-pound frame. After he crashed out of the Pirates system last fall and signed a minor-league deal with San Diego, though, he made some adjustments. Here, rather than give all the numbers I conveyed for Cortes in a single table, we're going to look at each of the two lines as distinct tables, with second rows, so we can compare his 2023 and 2024 showings. Seasons PA Swing% Chase% ZSw-Chase InZoneWhiff% PHiA/SW 100+/Sw LandAng LaunchAng LowHit% MedHit% HighHit% 2023 316 45.1% 27.8% 35.4% 19.3% 4.7% 9.8% 11.3 10.5 33.0% 37.2% 29.3% 2024 469 44.6% 21.8% 45.8% 18.6% 5.3% 7.4% 7.7 13.4 27.0% 40.8% 32.0% Seasons PA ExitVel 10thExitVel 90thExitVel Hit95+% Well Hit LA Sweet Spot EV BABIP Barrel% FBDst xWOBA wOBA SAEV 2023 316 90.6 73.6 104.2 44.7% 12 93.8 .354 22.6% 314 .303 .326 89 2024 469 89.6 70.6 102.9 42.5% 17.4 94.3 .307 24.8% 332.9 .352 .371 93.6 Mitchell made a crucial change just by deciding not to chase above the zone in 2024, and it paid off in spades. His strikeout rate plunged from nearly 30% to barely over 20%, and his walk rate rose from 9.2% to 11.7%. That tweak made a world of difference and unlocked some relatively low-friction improvements in his contact profile. As you can see, he actually lost a bit of raw exit velocity, but he hit his line drives and fly balls harder and got more lift. Generating more air balls allowed him to stroke 22 home runs in under 500 plate appearances. It is, again, unlikely he would carry that home-run rate into the bigger parks and less thin air of MLB, but he profiles like a higher-upside version of Rafael Ortega, whom the Cubs got a bunch of good work from in 2021 and 2022, as they plunged into this rebuild. Whereas Cortes handles lefties fairly well, Mitchell probably shouldn't ever see one, but if the Cubs are as aggressive as they should be in the market for one more big right-handed bat, that won't be a problem. Mitchell could slot into the roster spot currently reserved for Tauchman at a lower price, with six years of team control left and still very much in his prime. He can also be optioned to the minors for one more season. If the Cubs can sell either of these players—but especially Mitchell—on coming aboard, it could pay off handsomely for them in 2025 and beyond.

Over the last few months, even those of us who were formerly big believers in the need to trade Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki to vault the Chicago Cubs forward have come to our senses. Suzuki's lack of durability and defensive value remain daunting, in certain ways, but he stayed healthy enough to show how good he can be down the stretch in 2024—including demonstrating a highly valuable capacity for hitting like himself when assigned full-time DH duties. Many hitters buckle and degrade in that role, and the fact that Suzuki didn't was almost as important a positive indicator as the fact that he stayed in the lineup for the final few months. Meanwhile, Happ overcame a slow start to put up a season that is becoming very typical, but no less impressive from repetition. He's an increasingly well-rounded, balanced hitter who added the consistent ability to drive the ball from the right side to his game this year. He's also a very good defender, albeit at one of the easiest positions on the field. Most importantly, with some public reporting and a pinch of private digging, it's become clear that neither Suzuki nor Happ is especially inclined to waive the no-trade clauses wired into their respective contracts. They have some measure of self-determination, and neither player is excited by the prospect of leaving. The Cubs might just have to move bravely down the narrow path they've left themselves, rather than trying to hack out a new, wider one. The idea of trading Suzuki or Happ was never about their insufficiency, per se, but about the team's unfortunate lack of other easy paths to improvement. With Dansby Swanson locked in at shortstop, Nico Hoerner at second, and an array of young players in whom the team is trying hard to find a homegrown star, there just aren't a lot of obvious alternatives to such a trade, if you start from the premise that the team needs a superstar. Cody Bellinger opting back into his deal only seems to have brought that circumstance into sharper focus. Still, I had largely let the notion drop. However, two podcasts full of thoughtful baseball people worth your respectful attention—Hittin' Season, a Phillies podcast that has been around in various incarnations for over a decade; and Five and Dive, the flagship of the Baseball Prospectus podcast network—have specifically mentioned Happ as a trade target or candidate over the last few weeks. It's that time of year. We all look around the league and pine after players on certain teams, or idly imagine others being moved from their current one to create a more interesting or aesthetically pleasing alignment of talent, but we're often misinformed about teams outside our own sphere. Much though I want it to, a Taylor Ward trade is unlikely to materialize this winter. Maybe those podcasters are off the mark, and I am about Ward, too. Then again, though: We all sometimes get overconfident when working with seemingly valuable but incomplete information. Yes, Happ and Suzuki have no-trade clauses, and yes, they both seem happy with the team. Happ, in particular, seems eager to stay put. Might we be misreading that, though? Or might Happ be more flexible than we think—easier to induce than he seems? I'm not suggesting that any of the people who discussed it in public forums recently have inside information or have better reason to think that's true than we do. But sometimes, we get so used to a familiar idea that we start to think of each day that passes as another datum to prove it. That's not really how such things work. If others see the inherent logic of a Happ trade or imagine making a pitch that might convince him to waive his no-trade clause, maybe we should take that more seriously than is our impulse. If he were to be amenable to a trade, it wouldn't automatically become advisable, at this stage. It would have to be part of a coordinated double-move, because the last thing the Cubs would want would be to trade him, then find themselves unable to sign someone clearly better. The idea of moving him would be to acquire either a similar player at a position of more pressing need—maybe a swap of Happ for Seattle's Luis Castillo?—or young talent that could then feed and fuel the team's existing pipeline, but it would have to plainly facilitate either the signing of a marquee starting pitcher or the arrival of a big bat with some indisputable leg up on Happ. There are only a few such hitters available, and since we can be pretty sure Juan Soto isn't coming to the North Side, it quickly starts to seem like there are zero. Again, as the hot stove earns its name, rumors will sometimes warm up without good reason, and we should be careful not to put undue stock into them. Still, there are versions of a Happ trade—one to the Phillies, for example, that might bring back one of their very good young starters, or something that netted the Cubs Garrett Crochet in a three-way deal—worth keeping an open mind to, and while the odds of it seem tiny, the logic of exploring it has not completely dissolved since the summer.

One of the first noteworthy, non-procedural moves of the fledgling MLB offseason was a trade between Atlanta and the Angels, the day after the World Series concluded. Jorge Soler, who can't stop being shipped across the country lately, landed in Orange County, with inconsistent starting pitcher Griffin Canning going the other way. Part of the motivation for the move was, plainly, financial, but it's also the first of what figure to be several trades by the Angels this winter, each focused on upgrading the team and making good on their promise to both increase the payroll and contend for an AL West title next season. Soler, according to GM Perry Minasian, will play some outfield for the Halos, which was a curious pronouncement. To whatever extent it's true, he'll be finding that time amid and around the expected starters, Mike Trout, Jo Adell, and Taylor Ward. The Angels also have some young outfielders they're likely to want to work in, and they've talked about easing Trout out of center field to help him remain a bit healthier. It feels as though, while they could use another outfielder (especially one who can play center field), they also just created a bit of a logjam for themselves. That works out, as far as I'm concerned, because the Angels have one outfielder who has long sat near the top of my preferred targets list, should the opportunity pop up. It might be time to pull the trigger on a deal for Ward. Soon to turn 31 years old and just two years from free agency, Taylor Ward is hardly a well-kept secret, for close baseball watchers. He's had an above-average OPS+ for each of the last four seasons, and hit 25 homers in over 660 plate appearances in 2024. Because the Angels are so relentlessly bad, though, and because he paled in comparison to Trout and Shohei Ohtani at the heights of their powers, it's been easy for him to fly somewhat beneath the radar. I don't even think the Angels properly understand what they have; that's why the Cubs should try to swoop in. Here's the thing: the Angels love swing speed. Part of the reason why they were willing to trade for Soler at the very outset of the offseason is their belief in swing speed. Here's where all their qualifying hitters fell last season, mapping swing speed against the percentage of their swings on which they made solid, squared-up contact: Some of their part-time players and guys who missed time because of injuries don't appear here, but would make it more obvious how much they prioritize this skill: Miguel Sanó, Trout, Mickey Moniak, Keston Hiura, Brandon Drury, Matt Thaiss, and others were specialists in swinging fast. Ward's great strength does not lie in generating a superabundance of bat speed, but in hitting the ball squarely on a consistent basis. In fact, when you weigh his power on balls hit in the air and the frequency of those batted balls, you find him ranked 13th of 365 batters who had at least 200 plate appearances last year—in what I'm calling Skills-Adjusted Exit Velocity. In short, this metric takes a player's average exit velocity on batted balls in power-friendly launch angle ranges and adjusts it for the percentage of a player's at-bats that end in a batted ball on that trajectory. Ward's company atop that leaderboard is exquisite. Yet, he didn't enjoy success as great as most of them. Here, I've highlighted Ward and the five other players who share not only his knack for the well-struck line drive but his blend of near-average in-zone contact rates and better-than-average plate discipline: To recap: Ward doesn't expand his zone much. When he swings within the zone, he doesn't have an especially high whiff rate. Most encouragingly, he makes a lot of hard contact, especially in high-value launch angle bands. So, why isn't he producing more real runs? Why isn't his dot on the plot above closer to those of Fernando Tatis Jr. or (very near Tatis) Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, or Marcell Ozuna? It's because of the other key characteristic Ward shares with Bobby Witt Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Mookie Betts, Austin Riley, and Tatis: they all use the big part of the field. The bad news for Ward is, he uses it more than any of them—in any meaningful sense, too much. Ward just doesn't turn on the ball and lift it to his pull field the way most hitters like him now strive to do. His is a much more old-fashioned, gap-centric approach. He pulls the majority of his ground balls, as virtually every hitter does, but he hits most of his air balls to dead center or right-center. He's similar, in terms of the distribution of those batted balls, to Alec Bohm, Tommy Pham, Bryan De La Cruz, and (funnily enough) Miguel Amaya. Those are dangerous, dynamic hitters, in various ways. Pham is the easiest comp, in that he's similarly patient at the plate, but he doesn't generate high-quality contact as often as Ward does. Bohm does, but he's much more aggressive at the plate. That means an exceptional strikeout rate, but a very low walk rate, compared to Ward's. If he could pair that approach with a bit more of a pull tendency, he'd really take off at the plate. But really, the adjustment in approach is optional. Ward would gain substantially just by getting out of Angel Stadium and into Wrigley Field. When he does pull the ball in the air, it's often scalded. Here's one liner that skipped just in front of the warning track in Anaheim—but which would have been a homer at Wrigley, and nowhere else in MLB, according to Statcast. OGdZallfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGxKWVYxWUNCQUFBRFZzR1ZnQUFWQTlXQUZsUlZWZ0FDd1FHQUFWUVYxY0dCZ1pW.mp4 It's not especially hard to imagine Ward's .246/.323/.426 line from 2024 jumping right back up to the airy .281/.360/.473 he posted in 2022. He's that caliber of hitter, suffering from a mixture of a home park that doesn't suit his skills and a team environment that doesn't suit anyone, period. The Angels value some other things more highly, and might be willing to move Ward, who's set to make an estimated $9.2 million via arbitration. The question is how the Cubs should go about paying for him, and simultaneously making sure they have room for him in the lineup every day. Ward plays an acceptable left field, and could presumably play right, too. He has a strong arm and gets good jumps. Obviously, with Cody Bellinger back, the team doesn't strictly need another corner outfielder. Ward could work gorgeously in rotation, though, spelling Bellinger and Ian Happ against certain lefties, forcing Bellinger over to center against certain righties, and even giving Seiya Suzuki needed days off at DH. He did come up as a third baseman, but is terrible there. If he's to play on the dirt at all, it would need to be by way of working in spring to become an adequate first baseman. That seems well within Ward's capabilities, though. Trading for Ward wouldn't create undue problems, given how much he could bolster their lineup. The Cubs would still have to give the Angels something useful, though. Could that be Alexander Canario? He's out of options, but has six years of team control remaining, and Canario's swing speed is almost off the charts. It is, in fact, much akin to those of Soler and Adell. If not Canario, maybe the Cubs could offer the Angels Nico Hoerner (to give the perennially injury-plagued Halos infield more depth) and a young arm, plus a little cash to even things out. Since the start of 2022, Ward has a 119 wRC+, almost identical to those of Nolan Arenado, Will Smith, Justin Turner, and Xander Bogaerts. Give him a change of scenery and venue, and he could step up from there into the same production bracket as (for instance) Suzuki. He might not be the easiest positional fit, but it's worth exploring the possibility. The Angels are behind the curve right now, they don't value what Ward does well as much as they should, and the Cubs could have an opening. It's one worth seizing upon.

Welcome to the 2025 Offseason Handbook! This year, we’re offering the format online only through our Caretakers program. The Offseason Handbook is a comprehensive look at what challenges the Twins face in the coming winter to field a competitive team in 2025. To become a Caretaker, visit this page. On top of receiving exclusive access to the Offseason Handbook, Caretakers also receive in-depth analysis from national writers you cannot find anywhere else. You will also receive exclusive access to events and an ad-free browsing option. In celebration of the Offseason Handbook’s release, we’re offering 20% off all Caretaker programs for the next week. Use the code HANDBOOK at checkout to receive 20% off your purchase! When a team finishes 83-79 in consecutive seasons, inertia and central tendencies are the most dangerous enemies. It's hard to articulate what separates the club from its hoped-for levels of success, because they're right there, within reach—yet, paradoxically, unreachable. There aren't glaring, easily mended weaknesses, or at least, there aren't many of them. Most of the teams who have such obvious shortcomings finish more like 73-89, or even 63-99. If you don't carefully and critically assess every aspect and layer of the team, though, you end up finishing 83-79 again. It's best to assume there are more weaknesses than the actual results suggest, because after all, what's been happening hasn't been working. That's Jed Hoyer's remit this November, December, January, and February. He has to build a new foundation around a core that is already locked in place. He needs to overhaul a roster that is extremely overhaul-resistant, which probably doesn't mean wrenching key pieces out of it by force. Rather, it's likely to mean assiduously improving at the margins, as Hoyer discussed at this week's GM Meetings in San Antonio, plus making a small but high-impact number of additions that merely push existing pieces of the roster into new roles or positions, rather than displacing them altogether. The 3 Big Needs for the 2025 Chicago Cubs Hoyer's job is not really solely about identifying needs, at this stage. It's also about prioritization. With Cody Bellinger opting back in for 2025 and the other high-price, high-profile pieces already in place, Hoyer will probably face some degree of resource pinch before he's done trying to build this team into a juggernaut. He has to know, and keep straight, which of his team's faults need to be addressed most strenuously and urgently. Let's simulate that process for him, because understanding it will also help us frame the team's behavior in coming weeks. A top-of-the-rotation starter. After a campaign in which we saw Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Shota Imanaga post ERAs south of 3.30 and some encouraging performances by back-end guys like Javier Assad and Ben Brown, this might seem a counterintuitive top need. In reality, though, the pervasively pitcher-friendly conditions at Wrigley Field in 2024 made those hurlers look better than they really were, just as they made some Cubs hitters appear to have rougher seasons than they did. The team needs to shore up its run prevention at least as much as it needs to improve its ability to score, and that starts at the front of their rotation, where they didn't miss enough bats last year and have to keep the durability questions attached to Steele in mind as they look forward. A middle-of-the-order slugger. It's hard to say whether a team that thinks itself so close to being playoff-caliber having these as their top two needs going into an offseason is ludicrous, or perfectly sensible. On one hand, how close are you to competing with the behemoths of the league if you have neither a true ace nor a true lineup centerpiece? On the other, though, it's a testament to the Cubs' middle-tier depth that they've posted winning records in consecutive campaigns, without being carried by any kind of superstar. Most importantly, it does feel true. Imanaga and Steele are each great options as your second-best starter, but not as your best. Seiya Suzuki is a great hitter to have anchoring the lineup, but there has to be another player as good as he is or better, and right now, the Cubs don't have one. Stout, consistent, bat-missing relief ace. Though the 2024 Cubs continued their recent tradition of finding success almost from nowhere at midseason with a cobbled-together cast of relievers, much damage was done before they hit their stride. They have to be a bullpen capable of dominating all year this time around, and that means going outside the organization and spending some money to get better at the back end of the bullpen. Traditional closer or not, some new, elite or near-elite reliever needs to round out this roster. This winter's free-agent class is fairly strong in all three of these demographics. There will be no dearth of paths to the specific improvements the Cubs need to make. But which of the array of options are realistic, and which should the team pursue most ardently?

To best understand the conundrum the 2025 Cubs face, let's sketch their projected Opening Day lineup. With the team's incumbent right fielder locked back in after exercising his player option for next year, there aren't any low-friction ways to shake up this group, but this group is going to look awfully familiar. Ian Happ - LF Seiya Suzuki - DH Cody Bellinger - RF Isaac Paredes - 3B Michael Busch - 1B Dansby Swanson - SS Miguel Amaya - C Pete Crow-Armstrong - CF Nico Hoerner - 2B You can shuffle those players based on personal preferences with regard to lineup construction, or based on the handedness of the opposing starter and the hurler the Cubs are sending to the mound on a given day, but some version of the above took the field almost every day for the final six weeks of the 2024 season. They were better than they had been in May and June, when depleted by injuries, and they even flashed championship-caliber explosiveness—but it was clear, all along, that they were incomplete and insufficient. It was just a matter of by what degree. The top two players in this lineup are signed to deals that include no-trade clauses, and besides, they've been the two most consistently strong hitters on this team for the last two years. Trading either would be an odd way of going about the project of improving the offense. The sixth guy also has a no-trade provision, and is on a longer, more onerous contract. In between are three guys who are tough to move, for three different reasons, and below Swanson are three young players whom the team hopes will mature into invaluable pieces for them. So, who's the most removable of a set of settled starters? I would argue that the first out should be the last one in; that's Paredes. It's not a seniority thing or a matter of Paredes not playing well when he first arrived after the July trade that brought him to the team from Tampa Bay. It's just that he offers the best blend of movability and replaceability—even though getting that right will require threading a needle. Enough throat-clearing. I came here to propose a trade. Here it is. Let's dig into the concept: ASTROS GET: 3B ISAAC PAREDES CUBS GET: OF PEDRO LEÓN, RHP MIGUEL ULLOLA If you just said, "Who?!", you're probably not alone, but hear me out. In this deal, Chicago would send Paredes—the paragon of pull power, a man made for the Crawford Boxes if ever there was one—to the Astros, who specialize in training the one thing missing from Paredes's offensive profile: bat speed. Houston issued a qualifying offer to Alex Bregman Monday, but the chances of him accepting it are right in line with the chances that he'll receive a standing ovation at Dodger Stadium the next time his new team comes to town. Bregman could still re-sign with Houston on a lucrative long-term deal, and longtime teammate José Altuve has made a public plea that they do so. However, Houston GM Dana Brown has already said the team "might need to get creative" with payroll this year, and that's usually a euphemism for either cutting or working hard to get better without an increase. Certainly, it seems not to fit with a nine-figure expenditure on a player in his early 30s. Paredes, by contrast, would be a great example of creativity. Given his remaining team control, his relatively modest projected salary, and the fit of his core skill set to the Astros' home park, he could go right back to making All-Star teams upon arriving there, and the team could get right back to reaching the ALCS every year. Let's talk about why the move would make sense for the Cubs. First and foremost, in this scenario, the Cubs would be the ones to sign Bregman. He's perfect for them. His on-base skills and remaining power are exactly what the top end of their batting order needs. Although it would be just one substitution, this batting order makes so much more sense and induces so much less anxiety that it's well worth spending $25-30 million a year on Bregman, on its own. Happ - LF Bregman - 3B Bellinger - RF Suzuki - DH Busch - 1B Swanson - SS Amaya - C Crow-Armstrong - CF Hoerner - 2B In the medium-term future, I think Bregman could also slide over and play second base, accommodating the emergence of 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith at the hot corner, if it comes to that. In the short term, though, it's just an expensive but important upgrade at third base. Bregman is a handful of runs better as a batter than Paredes, even if you assume Paredes bounces back from his deep 2024 slump. He's also a better fielder, despite being older, and he's no worse on the bases than the plodding Paredes. The two players the Cubs would directly receive for Paredes also make the team better at the margins. León, whom the Dodgers signed three and a half years ago out of Cuba, is almost a perfect analog for Alexander Canario, but whereas Canario has had repeated injury issues and is out of options, León has consistently performed well in the top levels of the minors over the last two seasons and stayed very healthy—and he can still be optioned to the minors for the next two seasons. In practice, though, I think León would spend much of 2025 on the big-league roster. He'll turn 27 next May, and although his cup of coffee with Houston this year was a bitter one, he has big upside. How big? Well, of the players who had at least 25 tracked swings in the majors this year, Giancarlo Stanton had by far the highest percentage of his register at over 78 MPH. Second on the list, out of 532 qualifiers, was León. There is, as you would guess, a lot of swing-and-miss in León's game, but he accepts his walks at least as well as Canario does, and he's a better outfielder, too. Acquiring him would necessitate trading Canario, but that should have been on the Cubs' to-do list this winter, anyway. Canario belongs on a team with lower aspirations and a stark need for help in the outfield. León would be a much better fit for the Cubs, given their roster and their competitive timeline. Ullola, meanwhile, is very much a lottery ticket, and is probably available mostly because he has to be added to the 40-man roster this month in order not to be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. He's a live-armed righty who has started throughout his ascent of the minor-league ladder, but who profiles as a reliever. His fastball has high-rise action and a very flat vertical approach angle (VAA), plus a bit of relative cut. He throws a sharp yet deep curveball and a hard slider, plus a changeup with depth. Walks will limit his upside slightly, but getting León and Ullola would neatly unwind the Christopher Morel and Hunter Bigge-for-Paredes trade, with some extra flexibility gained in the bargain. Trades that only make sense in conjunction with a huge free-agent expenditure are tough to project. This one is unlikely to come to fruition, for that very reason. However, if the Cubs can get Bregman engaged on a long-term deal, they should call the Astros with this framework right away. Swapping out Paredes for Bregman and upgrading from Canario and, say, Trey Wingenter to León and Ullola would be an excellent double-move by Hoyer and company. At the very least, this is the type of creativity the Cubs need to consider throughout this winter, as they try to get better from a position of relative roster stiffness.